Equanimity is one of the most powerful attributes to possess in investment management. Opportunities are always available in the market but it is a job that requires extensive research, analysis, objectiveness, and sometimes secondary opinion.
Disclaimer: All articles provided are for entertainment purposes only. Interpret everything as opinion rather than fact and do your own due diligence. These statements are not an offer to buy or sell any security.
Investment manager at Rugged Group LLC, an independent, fee-only registered investment advisor based in New York that I formed in August 2015. Find out more and follow my blog here. Email: brian [at] ruggedgrp [dot com]
I'm a 24 year-old who has been interested in investing for the past 3 years or so
As of 5/29/16, I own:
Ritchie Bros (used equipment auctioneer, awesome new management, impenetrable moat)
Ametek (defensive industrial + awesome manager; huge R&D/product development advantage)
KMG Chemical (Intel and STMicro's captive chip cleaning company, check out EBITDA growth for last 8 quarters; also impenetrable moat)
SunRun Inc (residential solar installer - DCF exercise. currently trading below the NPV of cash flows of its installed base, even assuming 0% renewals [analysts estimate that a reasonable renewal rate would be ~90%, I think, but it's stil priced below NPV even if you use 0% renewal rate..the zero renewal rate assumption, plus purchasing for less than NPV of cash flows, gives a nice MoS]. they're growing quickly, and the recent extension of solar/wind energy credits is a huge boon). So, trading for less than NPV of contracted cash flows, and you get the development company (e.g., growth) for free - the development company generates like $50m in NPV per quarter or something, so your intrinsic value is growing, too.
Resolute Forest Products - Basically an asset-based valuation; check out Chou Associates recent letter for breakdown. Additionally, RFP has raised prices on both it's pulp and newsprint by a huge % YTD'16, and that is all straight to the bottom line. They also have exposure to wood products for single family home construction in NE USA, and are building a tissue plant that i believe is going to supply tissue for Amazon's new private label initiatives. Only business that i don't know what to make of is uncoated/coated papers. But, the other 4 - wood products, newsprint, pulp, and tissue, all look like theyre ready to rumble.
LEE Enterprises - Buffett owns convertibles on this (I think, i might be wrong - Berkshire does own some stock, though, interestingly, and we know buffet loves tiny local newspapers, which is LEEs thing) - after they finish burning their NOLs, acquisition target. Best-managed newspaper company like ever - their margins are insane. Margins stable, revenue declining, so EBITDA declining. But they're retiring debt, and lowering interest payments, faster than ebitda declines. So, unlevered FCF is declining a couple percent per year, but levered FCF is actually increasing. Currently trades at 4.5x ebitda. Stock at $2. Should retire $1.20 in debt over NTM. don't think multiple can compress much more - assuming no change to the multiple, and $1.20 in debt retirement in NTM, >50% upside in 1 yr just from converting debt to equity.
Innoviva - Owned by GSK and Baupost. Basically, royalties from GSK's BREO/Anoro COPD/asthma medicine. Potential to generate $100s of millions in royalty revenue a few years out, and super low cost structure - implies hundreds of millions in FCF.
Omegaflex - $350 mkt cap, $16m in reported NI for 2015. They are 1 of 2 manufacturers of csst, which is flexible steel hosing that connects gas utility lines to homes - levered to single family home construction. NI depressed by legal expenses arising from product liability court cases - all of the cases against them, they've won (6 in a row). in fact, Pennsylvania supreme court changed product liability law just for OFLX. An Ohio judge threw out a case, and told the lawyer he was not allowed to correct the lawsuit and refile. Total claim exposure has decreased 40% in last 4 quarters, but legal expenses haven't followed yet. Eventualy, legal expense will be gone, adding $3.5m to NI. Additionally, growing revenue by high single digits per year, and GM is like 90% - contribution from sales to after-tax NI is like 55%+. So, grow sales by $8m, implies NI growth of $4-5m. 2015 NI of $16m, plus legal costs (should go away) gets us to ~$19m after tax NI. Then, if 2016 sales grow by $8m, which is the same as 2015 growth, we get another 4-5m in NI by end of 2016. Gets us to $23m in ttm NI at YE 2016. If sales grow by $8m in 2017, and NI by 4-5m, looking at $27-28m in NI in 2017. On a 20x forward multiple, that's a $560m market cap, or 60% upside, and growing.
RELY - one of my favorites. Posted a bunch on Corner of Berkshire/Fairfax as wjsco, suggest reading that.
SunEdison SemiConductor - one of 4 major wafer producers in the world. 2 of the other 3 have 30% MS each, and SEMI and one other each have 10-15%. OVercapacity meant declining prices until 2015.2015 saw cap utilization breach 85% or something, which means prices shouldve gone up; but, their major competitors are Japanese, and the yen devalued significantly in 2015. This brought further pricing pressure. However, no new capacity has been added for a long time, wafer demand has continued to increase (IoT, datacenter, cloud, etc), so supply/demand dynamics are good. Also, japanese yen has appreciated considerably in 2016, which coupled with tight supply conditions, means massive price increases coming. On top of all of this, SEMI and Siliton (the other 15% MS player) are about to merge, and since they do the exact same thing, sell to the exact same customers, etc., there should be HUGE cost savings from reduced backoffice, reduced selling expense, and reduced R&D - the two companies will basically be able to cut OpEx in half after merging.
NIHD - owned by Aurelius and Capital World, two BK investors who own >50% of the company. They have $650 in debt, and $650 in cash (some of it restricted). They have $1b worth of spectrum licenses, per their fresh start accounting, and at least $700m worth of depreciated network infrastructure. In May 2016, the largest shareholders registered their 50% stake for sale, and they also updated the CEO separation agreement - he is set to leave by Nov 2016, which I think means a sale is coming prior to that. Who would want to buy the company? Any telecom in Brazil that needs spectrum.
CWSC - BDC that recently spun off CSWI. Trading below BV, and >50% of BV is cash. Rest of it is loans to mid-market companies. So, trading for less than current liquidation value (could sell the cash+loan portfolio for more than current market cap). Just announced $10m share buyback, roughly 5% of CSO. Not sure how this will play out, but again, buying it for less than currently marketable liquidation value - hard to lose money here.
Consolidated-Tomoka Land - Looks like David Winters has succeeded in pressuring mgmt to sell the company. Interestingly, look at prop 5 of recent Def14/A - mgmt tried to authorize additional shares to issue in case of preferred share conversion - preferred shares can't convert until $68, and current price is $48, implying significant upside. The request for share authorization came at the same time that David Winters has been bringing down the hammer - I'm assigning extra value to this, bc David Winters actually brought the Coca Cola compensation plan to WEB's attention, and WEB agreed with him - if you're CTO, and the activist who Buffet sided with is coming for you, what do you do? The answer, I think, is that you do what the activist is asking for, especially if his case has merits (which it certainly seems to).
PRSS - 60%+ owned by insiders. $38 of the $58 market cap is cash, burning a couple million per quarter. Acquisition target - can't look at ebitda, have to look at contribution. This, because acquirer would cut out all of the OpEx. $28m contribution in 2015, 4-6x multiple implies well over $100m market cap, not even considering residual cash balance. Founding mgmt owns 26% of company - they let someone else be ceo, and he messed it up, so founders came back in 2014 to turn it back around. Lloyd Miller, legendary micro cap activist, owns 17% of the company. Sequoia venture and Stratim own big stakes too
Stephen Simpson, CFA, is a freelance financial writer and investor.
PLEASE NOTE: As I means of honoring my late wife and grieving her loss, I do not intend to resume writing until mid-July.
I have worked for both sell-side and buy-side firms (equities and fixed income), with the largest percentage of my working time spent in med-tech. At this point I am now effectively in a "working retirement".
I write because I find that the process helps me take better notes, be more disciplined about modeling, and come up with a more coherent investment view for my portfolio management needs. If I'm writing about a stock, it's generally because I'm interested in it as an investment prospect or I think there's an interesting story to tell.
I don't share my models, so please don't ask.
More of my writings can be found at my blog Kratisto Investing (kratistoinvesting.blogspot.com), or Twitter (@Kratisto_Invest).
As I'm a long-term investor, I'll highlight some stockpicks which will have a 5-7 year investment horizon. As I strongly believe a portfolio should consist of a mixture of dividend-paying stocks and growth stocks, my articles will reflect my thoughts on this mixture.
I am interested in small capitalized companies with a high optionality to the upside compared to the relative downside risk. I am grounded in a value based approach but will also explore special situations. I am a trained CPA and continue to practice in industry.
Warning: my twitter account is very random but will have a lot of economic and business items sprinkled with Green Bay Packer comments.
Microcap Stars provides stock recommendations on microcap companies that we believe can be the next ‘Stars’ of the industry. Because of their size (a market value less than $400 million) microcap stocks get little Wall Street attention. This lack of research coverage and understanding for microcap stocks can provide an undeniable edge to investors that do just a little bit of homework. We believe that Microcap Stocks should be a part of an investors active asset allocation. Learn more at our website: http://www.microcapstars.com
Peter holds a MSc in Finance and is currently acting as a Research Assistant, supporting empirical corporate finance academic research. Aspiring to be an equity analyst he previously held roles in management consulting, investment banking and private equity.
Data Center Knowledge - Contributor: writing about data centers REITs -- a new and growing asset class -- attempting to bridge the gap between technology & traditional REIT investors.
Researching and writing at the corner of Main St. & Wall St. where real estate often intersects with trends in: technology, ecommerce, office/industrial, healthcare, cloud computing, energy infrastructure & green initiatives.
Recently covered breaking news and actionable ideas REIT ideas for Benzinga "REIT Beat," now Contributor/Sr. REIT Expert. Select articles featured on Investopedia.com, Seeking Alpha, and published on Yahoo! Finance, Google, MSN, Finviz and many other financial portals. Recent Select Freelance contributor for Motley Fool, writing about REITs and real estate topics for the Financial Bureau.
I have over 25 years of experience as a: developer of institutional quality office and industrial facilities, general contractor, homebuilder, managing general partner for private limited partnerships, and have performed consulting and transactional real estate services for others, including entitlements for planned commercial/office/industrial developments.
Past job experience included: V.P. of Energy Services for a Florida based Mechanical Contracting company, which subsequently was acquired by EMCOR (NYSE: EME). Responsibilities included development and "financial engineering" of projects to reduce energy consumption and total cost of ownership solutions, partnered with the two major Florida electric utilities, and private companies, (including Enron Energy Services!).
Education: UCLA - BA Economics, including graduate coursework in Real Estate Finance.
Masters Degree from St. Thomas University - Miami, FL
I am an undergraduate finance student and value investor influenced by the likes of Buffett, Graham, Marks, Klarman, Greenblatt, etc.
I can be contacted by phone at 1-508-505-8910 or e-mail at email@example.com
I have an MA in Economics from The George Washington University and an MBA in Finance from Columbia and a CFA.
I work for a financial services company in the product development and credit areas, with over 30 years experience. All trading by myself and family members is pre-approved to ensure no conflict of interest.
I consider myself a long-term buy & hold investor with a focus on US equities. My preference is for reasonably valued companies that are leaders in their field (preferably with a defensible moat) that generate significant cash flow long-term. I also attempt to take advantage of what I consider market overreaction and herd mentality to the companies that I follow.
David Zanoni is ranked in the top 1% of blogging analysts on Tipranks.com for performance and accuracy. He focuses on growth & momentum stocks that are reasonably priced and likely to outperform the market over the long-term. David is a graduate of Rutgers University with a B.S. in Management. He is an independent long term investor of quality stocks and uses options for strategy. David believes in the power of innovation, capitalism, and the characteristics of the American spirit: intellect, fortitude, and adaptability to lead our country and the world to growing prosperity. His wants to help make people money by investing in high-quality growth stocks.
I work on the buy-side at a long/short fund. In my former life I was a senior, sell-side analyst at a large regional bank/brokerage firm covering a list of consumer discretionary companies. As a junior analyst on the sell-side I assisted in the coverage of automotive suppliers and OEMs.
Recent high-school graduate based in Singapore looking to break into the buy/sell-side.
Disclaimer: The author's reports contain factual statements and opinions. He derives factual statements from sources which he believes are accurate, but neither they nor the author represent that the facts presented are accurate or complete. Opinions are those of the the author and are subject to change without notice. His reports are for informational purposes only and do not offer securities or solicit the offer of securities of any company. Mr. Goh ("Lester") accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss or damage arising from any use of his reports or their content. Lester advises readers to conduct their own due diligence before investing in any companies covered by him. He does not know of each individual's investment objectives, risk appetite, and time horizon. His reports do not constitute as investment advice and are meant for general public consumption. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
I use value investing methods of analysis to search out undervalued companies using a combination of financial analysis and a qualitative assessment of management, industry & company fundamentals and circumstances to evaluate the odds of a successful investment. Emphasis is currently on consumer non-durables with strong brands and market shares, but there is no limit to such investments only. Past investments have included oil companies, consumer retail and consumer durables.
----->Top Idea #1: Zooplus, publ. Oct. 24th 2014, return since: +116.3%
----->Top Idea #2: Coca-Cola Bottling Co., publ. May 20th 2015, return: +72%
(calculated as of Sept 30th 2015)
I try to generate a couple of high probability ideas (2-3) every year and take very concentrated positions based on those ideas. Over the past 8 years this strategy has generated a 22,87% compounded average return net of all costs and taxes on my investment portfolio, with the strongest returns mostly during the past five years.
Current sectors under coverage by me at Seeking Alpha:
-personal & household goods
Disclaimer: all investment analyses and information written and published by me, as well as all comments, should not be considered as investment advice or used as such. All readers are strongly urged to perform their own research and due diligence on the equity shares and other investment products I have written about. I have no business or any other forms of relationship with the companies featured in my analyses, unless explicitly stated so in the article disclaimer.
Hightower is the leading end-to-end leasing management platform for the commercial real estate industry. Hightower helps owners and brokers save time, improve visibility, and reduce risk in their portfolio. Founded in 2013, Hightower has thousands of customers from around the world using its platform, with enterprise customers including Vornado, CBRE, NGKF, Beacon Capital, Shorenstein and more. www.gethightower.com
Seeking to invest in real companies with products, services and earnings. Have a particular interest in small cap Pharmaceuticals and a distaste for short selling without real data points. Also, have worked for a newsletter in the Philippines, and enjoy the challenge of stock picking. Recent successes include EPD, CHD, CL, AGNC and select small cap pharmaceuticals. I have no interest in low hanging fruit that anyone can pick.
65 years old, been trading for almost 40 years. Take a long view, I have 100 % faith in long term fundamentals and use Technicals (MACD/RSI/MOM/Fibonacci) only to gauge entry/exit points.
I believe the bankers and heads of financial institutions responsible for the derivatives mess should all have had lengthy prison sentences of the type handed down to Skilling (Enron) and Ebbers (WorldCom). The District Court Judge said of Skilling:
"His crimes have imposed on hundreds, if not thousands of victims a life sentence of poverty."
And exactly what did the bankers, Goldman Sachs and the others do to have deserved a lesser sentence or even no sentence at all?
private value investor from Europe/Germany. Looking for tax efficient long term investments in Europe and US beating the market. Thus likes insurance holdings.
Influenced by annual reports, shareholder letters (BRK, MKL etc.), Greenblatt, Siegel, O'Shaugnessy, Fisher, Buffett, Spier, Montier, Graham, Levermann, Browne, Thorp, Hagstrom, Pabrai, Antonacci
Former buyside analyst now running my own fund for accredited investors. Things to know:
1) I research a lot of companies, but invest in very few. My goal on SA is to provide analysis, particularly of small and underfollowed companies, that readers can use as a starting point for their own research. When you read my articles, please understand that I try to present a high-level look. It's up to the reader to determine if it's the sort of situation that is worth monitoring. Note that I usually try to err on the side of conservatism, so just because I'm not enthused by a particular investment candidate doesn't mean you shouldn't be.
2) I appreciate comments whether you agree with me or not - especially in cases where I might be wrong, I'd like to know why! If you happen to be a particular expert on a topic and are interested in discussing it further, please shoot me a direct message. I would love to chat. Or if, you know, you're just a lonely value investor who wants a friend. Jokes aside, I've made lots of great friends through SA and am always open to talking.
3) If you enjoy reading my work, in no particular order, you might also enjoy reading fellow SA authors Vince Martin, Stephen Simpson, Brendan Rose, Brian Grosso, Bumbershoot Holdings, Adib Motiwala, Jeremy Raper, Investing 501, and Ted Barac. Most of them have professional investment expertise and the ones who don't are equally insightful. Like Amazon recommendations, not all of these will be perfect, but if you're new to SA, it's as good a place as any to start!
All the usual disclaimers apply... articles are provided for entertainment purposes only, interpret everything as opinion rather than fact, do your own due diligence, this is not an offer to sell securities, forward looking statements are not made using a crystal ball, etc. Most importantly, I will reiterate that everything I write is an opinion; analyzing stocks is inherently subjective and two reasonable people can come to different conclusions.
I am a long term value investor, but I am also interested in growth stocks when it is not overpriced.
I enjoy the process of finding out stocks with value, much like a gold-mining experience. Along the way, I also gained a lot of insight on various businesses.
Most of the time, I post articles and comments on Seeking Alpha to get opinions from other people, since it is important to get criticized and avoid the confirmatory bias. I also believe that small investors need to work together to share their research efforts in order to achieve an edge on information.
While I am passionate about investment, I am also passionate about many other things as well, such as Math, Machine Learning, Psychology and Philosophy. I believe life is about having fun, and a big part of that "fun" comes from constant learning and personal improvement.
Asia/U.S. Deep-Value Wide-Moat Stocks is a research service for value investors seeking value stocks with a huge gap between price and intrinsic value, leaning towards deep value balance sheet bargains (i.e. buying assets at a discount e.g. net cash stocks, net-nets, low P/B stocks, sum-of-the-parts discounts) and wide moat stocks (i.e. buying earnings power at a discount in great companies like "Magic Formula" stocks, high quality businesses, hidden champions and wide moat compounders).
Those who believe that the pendulum will move in one direction forever—or reside at an extreme forever— eventually will lose huge sums. Those who understand the pendulum's behavior can benefit enormously. ~ Howard Marks
Investment ideas for Asia/U.S. Deep-Value Wide-Moat Stocks are generated from screens, insider trades, 13Fs, fund manager letters, analyst reports, blogs and forums. The initial ideas sourced are subsequently evaluated using The Cheapness-Safety-Quality (CSQ) framework, applying customized investment checklists to ask the right questions of the investments in question, along the dimension of cheapness, safety and quality. Asia/U.S. Deep-Value Wide-Moat Stocks' value investing philosophy borrows from the wisdom of value investing gurus, using both quantitative screens and qualitative inputs to filter the global stock markets for investment ideas.
Please note that I do not read comments posted here, nor respond to messages here. I don't have the time. If you want my attention, you must seek it directly at my blog.
Aswath Damodaran is the Kerschner Family Chair Professor of Finance at the Stern School of Business at New York University. He teaches the corporate finance and equity valuation courses in the MBA program. He received his MBA and Ph.D from the University of California at Los Angeles. His research interests lie in valuation, portfolio management and applied corporate finance.
He has written three books on equity valuation (Damodaran on Valuation, Investment Valuation, The Dark Side of Valuation) and two on corporate finance (Corporate Finance: Theory and Practice, Applied Corporate Finance: A User’s Manual). He has co-edited a book on investment management with Peter Bernstein (Investment Management) and has a book on investment philosophies (Investment Philosophies). His newest book on portfolio management is titled Investment Fables and was released in 2004. His latest book is on the relationship between risk and value, and takes a big picture view of how businesses should deal with risk, and was published in 2007.
He was a visiting lecturer at the University of California, Berkeley, from 1984 to 1986, where he received the Earl Cheit Outstanding Teaching Award in 1985. He has been at NYU since 1986, received the Stern School of Business Excellence in Teaching Award (awarded by the graduating class) in 1988, 1991, 1992, 1999, 2001, 2007, 2008 and 2009, and was the youngest winner of the University-wide Distinguished Teaching Award (in 1990). He was profiled in Business Week as one of the top twelve business school professors in the United States in 1994.
Editors' Note: Seeking Alpha monitors Dr. Damodaran blog and posts relevant articles on his behalf.
Founder of Old School Value (www.oldschoolvalue.com).
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Jeff is the President of NewArc Investments Inc., manager of both individual and institutional investments. Jeff is a registered investment advisor, and portfolio manager for NewArc's investment programs.
Jeff is a former college professor with a hands-on, real world attitude. His quantitative modeling helped inform state and local officials in Wisconsin for more than a decade. A Public Policy analyst, he taught advanced research methods at the University of Wisconsin, and analyzed many issues related to state tax policy.
Jeff began in the financial business as Research Director for trading firm at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. He investigated anomalies in the standard option pricing models, taught classes for beginning options traders, and developed new forecasting techniques. In 1991 he established a general research consultancy, working with professional traders at all of the Chicago financial exchanges. In 1998 he started NewArc Investments, Inc.
Jeff has a commitment to the specific needs of individual investors. It is not a one-size-fits all approach, but one that emphasizes the unique circumstances of each client.
Jeff also serves on the board of two small technology companies (currently Chairman at one). He is occasionally as an expert witness in legal cases involving financial markets and hedging.