2009trader

Take a Helping of Sysco

We simply have a difference in the view of risk and reward on SYY. By the way, I am not in treasuries or CD's with no yield. I will definitely not buy SYY now, but will buy at $17 and yes, if it drops to $14, I'll buy some more.

Good luck.

Take a Helping of Sysco

There are many stocks that are trading at historically low valuations- then they go even lower. IMO Sysco is still in a downtrend and the shareprice is looking to go lower before it turns up towards the end of 2009.

I am not surprized that that SYY is has not experienced a decline in sales or profits at the end of Q3, as inflation was high for food for the first 3 qtrs and job losses and consumer spending really dropped of a cliff only in Oct/Nov. Listen to the restaurant owners if you don't believe me:

WASHINGTON, Dec. 31 /PRNewswire-USNewswire... -- The outlook for the restaurant industry worsened in November, as the National Restaurant Association's comprehensive index of restaurant activity fell to a record-low level. The Association's Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) -- a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry -- stood at 96.7 in November, down 0.4 percent from October and its 13th consecutive month below 100.


"The November decline in the Restaurant Performance Index was the result of broad-based declines across the index components, with the Current Situation index falling to a new record low," said Hudson Riehle, senior vice president of Research and Information Services for the Association. "A solid majority of restaurant operators reported negative same-store sales and traffic levels in November, while nearly one-half expect their sales in six months to be lower than the same period in the previous year."


"The continued deterioration in economic conditions is reflected in operator sentiment, with a record 47 percent of restaurant operators saying the economy is currently the number-one challenge facing their business," Riehle added. "Looking forward, restaurant operators aren't particularly optimistic about an improvement either, with 49 percent expecting economic conditions to worsen in six months."

It will get worse before it gets better. I think the author has presented the facts well, but just because the stock appears cheap by historic standards does not mean it will not go lower. It will be a good buy at $17, however going short SYY looks better than long right now.

Take a Helping of Sysco

I doubt that Sysco can do well in this environment. Unemployment is high,- and rising, and people have lost money in their investments and the value of their homes. The savings rate is the highest it has ever been according to government statistics. The discretionary spending is going to disappear- first to go will be eating out.

Also the large restaurant chains have already cut their prices to attract the few customers that are still going out and they will put the pressure on Sysco to reduce their costs, and margins; plus the small operators will load up at Costco or other wholesalers. Sysco will also suffer credit losses as some of their customers go bankrupt. Sysco also came out with guidance on Dec 23 saying that revenue will not increase in 2009, which is a change from what they guided only months earlier.

I will not buy Sysco now. In fact they are a good short candidate now that the dividend has just been paid. I will look at them again in Q3, as we should start to see some rebound in 2010.

Two Billionaires Concur: Sell the Banks

Greg,
Very good comments. I was concerned when I first read Paul's article, however when I went to the Fed website, it did not appear that the overall numbers were out of whack. Your explanation is credible, thanks!