Gunslinger

How to Profit from the Commercial Real Estate Fallout

SRS is a terrible way to play this. As stated, IYR actually has some good holdings in there (like NLY); better way is to play puts on the most leveraged REITs with massive upcoming debt due - especially with the really cheap IV these days.

Having said that, SGP is a bad long play here, and KIM is horrendous.

The Start of a Dry Spell for POT?

Too bad there has been NO global warming this decade. Kinda shoots down all that talk.

Ironically, global cooling would result in temperate shifts that would have a negative impact on North American wheat and corn production - leading to the crop shortages.

Take a look for the recent cycle of sunspots that we are in, and what impact that will have on temperatures and agriculture. A decent net search should eventually provide those papers.


On Apr 24 10:11 AM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> I don't think so. Pack your portfolios with agricultural plays like
> Potash (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), Mosaic (seekingalpha.com/symbo...),
> and Agrium (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) if Dr. Paul Ehrlich
> is just partially right about the impending collapse in the world’s
> food supply. You might even throw in long positions in wheat, corn,
> soybeans, and rice. The never dull, and often controversial Stanford
> biology professor told me he expects that global warming is leading
> to significant changes in world weather patterns that will cause
> droughts in some of the largest food producing areas, causing massive
> famines. Food prices will skyrocket, and billions could die. At greatest
> risk are the big rice producing areas in South Asia, which depend
> on glacial run off from the Himalayas. If the glaciers melt, this
> will be gone. California faces a similar problem if the Sierra snowpack
> disappears. Rising sea levels displacing 500 million people in low
> lying coastal areas is another big problem. One of the 77 year old
> professor’s early books “The Population Bomb” was required reading
> for me in college in 1970, and I used to drive up from Los Angeles
> to hear his lectures (followed by the obligatory side trip to the
> Haight-Ashbury). Other big risks to the economy are the threat of
> a third world nuclear war caused by population pressures, and global
> plagues facilitated by a widespread growth of intercontinental transportation
> and globalization. And I won’t get into the threat of a giant solar
> flare frying our electrical grid. “Super consumption” in the US needs
> to be reined in where the population is growing the fastest. If the
> world adopts an American standard of living, we need four more Earths
> to supply the needed natural resources. We need to raise the price
> of all forms of carbon, preferably through taxes, but cap and trade
> will work too. Population control is the answer to all of these problems,
> which is best achieved by giving women an education, jobs, and rights,
> and has already worked well in Europe and Japan. All sobering food
> for thought.

Prisma Goes Contrarian on Potash Industry

Except for the fact that the EuroChem and Rio plans have been baked into the industry for a while now. Nothing new announced there, contrary to that "research."

4 Stocks in Trouble

This was a good technical call, but horrible stock picks (MOS and CF). No way are the Ags (Ferts) going to tank, or even lag over anything resembling medium-term or longer. The market is not going to let these prices go back to 2007 levels. These companies are going to make up the ground they lost recently, and the ones that look the worst technically are the ones that have the most upside to gain back. You're only going to find yourself selling at the lows and hating yourself. Hell, not only did MOS and CF rip back up over their 50DMA today, they closed over their 20EMA!

The market darlings (ferts, coal, steel, oil/gas services, drybulk, et al) have serious fundamentals behind them, and no prospects of slowing. This isn't like trading technicals on the INDU, SPX, QQQQ, DBA, DBC, etc.

FWIW, buying the hot stocks on dips to/near their 20EMAs has been an unreal technical trading strategy this year. IMO, the trade now is buying calls on the above situation. The gains and accuracy % have been unreal. I could list the major watch names if anyone expressed interest (probably similar to the author's).

First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?

$305 and climbing @ 8:01

First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?

$300?

Increasing Ethanol Demand and the Likely Price Implications for Corn

Scratch that 20%. The report table was printed backwards. This year was actually 10%.

Corn to trade even higher...

Increasing Ethanol Demand and the Likely Price Implications for Corn

USDA came out with corn 20% planted so far. Ahead of estimates, although still way behind normal of course.

Today's move should be reversed tomorrow (corn to drop / beans to gain).

Baird Likely Underestimating Bucyrus's Profitability Potential

Good CALL!

Potash, Mosaic Are Looking Fertile

N

Potash Should Jump on Massive JPMorgan Estimates Boost

JPM is eating the old-school analysts' lunch. I've been impressed with their calls I've seen in the last year.

Three Potash Producers Benefitting from Rising Prices

Shouldn't take a rocket scientist to figure out which one...

Which one had their earnings and conference call yesterday?
Which one has the highest earnings off which to base PE?
Which one would that not represent a price jump of 150 or 250% on?

Options Traders Call Potash the "New Crude"

May 220s... closed @ 14.30

Well over a double in 3 days.

Move over Visa, Intrepid Potash Is the IPO of the Year

Better play, if you can trade Int'l.

UKRA.IL

Much more swallowable valuation on the pure-play, but comes with some government intervention. Just announced $1000 Asian spot, as expected.

(long)

Options Traders Call Potash the "New Crude"

Only took one week...

$1000 potash from Uralkali (as previously noted) - although inclusive of freight.

"The new price level in Asian markets will be $1,000 a metric tonne cost and freight for Standard MOP."
www.forbes.com/markets...

UKRA.IL (long)