Gunslinger's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/157198/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/143928-how-to-profit-from-the-commercial-real-estate-fallout?source=feed#comment-591913 591913
Having said that, SGP is a bad long play here, and KIM is horrendous. ]]> Fri, 17 Jul 2009 10:35:34 -0400
Having said that, SGP is a bad long play here, and KIM is horrendous. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132833-the-start-of-a-dry-spell-for-pot?source=feed#comment-476486 476486
Ironically, global cooling would result in temperate shifts that would have a negative impact on North American wheat and corn production - leading to the crop shortages.

Take a look for the recent cycle of sunspots that we are in, and what impact that will have on temperatures and agriculture. A decent net search should eventually provide those papers.


On Apr 24 10:11 AM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> I don't think so. Pack your portfolios with agricultural plays like
> Potash (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), Mosaic (seekingalpha.com/symbo...),
> and Agrium (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) if Dr. Paul Ehrlich
> is just partially right about the impending collapse in the world’s
> food supply. You might even throw in long positions in wheat, corn,
> soybeans, and rice. The never dull, and often controversial Stanford
> biology professor told me he expects that global warming is leading
> to significant changes in world weather patterns that will cause
> droughts in some of the largest food producing areas, causing massive
> famines. Food prices will skyrocket, and billions could die. At greatest
> risk are the big rice producing areas in South Asia, which depend
> on glacial run off from the Himalayas. If the glaciers melt, this
> will be gone. California faces a similar problem if the Sierra snowpack
> disappears. Rising sea levels displacing 500 million people in low
> lying coastal areas is another big problem. One of the 77 year old
> professor’s early books “The Population Bomb” was required reading
> for me in college in 1970, and I used to drive up from Los Angeles
> to hear his lectures (followed by the obligatory side trip to the
> Haight-Ashbury). Other big risks to the economy are the threat of
> a third world nuclear war caused by population pressures, and global
> plagues facilitated by a widespread growth of intercontinental transportation
> and globalization. And I won’t get into the threat of a giant solar
> flare frying our electrical grid. “Super consumption” in the US needs
> to be reined in where the population is growing the fastest. If the
> world adopts an American standard of living, we need four more Earths
> to supply the needed natural resources. We need to raise the price
> of all forms of carbon, preferably through taxes, but cap and trade
> will work too. Population control is the answer to all of these problems,
> which is best achieved by giving women an education, jobs, and rights,
> and has already worked well in Europe and Japan. All sobering food
> for thought.]]> Fri, 24 Apr 2009 17:54:15 -0400
Ironically, global cooling would result in temperate shifts that would have a negative impact on North American wheat and corn production - leading to the crop shortages.

Take a look for the recent cycle of sunspots that we are in, and what impact that will have on temperatures and agriculture. A decent net search should eventually provide those papers.


On Apr 24 10:11 AM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> I don't think so. Pack your portfolios with agricultural plays like
> Potash (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), Mosaic (seekingalpha.com/symbo...),
> and Agrium (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) if Dr. Paul Ehrlich
> is just partially right about the impending collapse in the world’s
> food supply. You might even throw in long positions in wheat, corn,
> soybeans, and rice. The never dull, and often controversial Stanford
> biology professor told me he expects that global warming is leading
> to significant changes in world weather patterns that will cause
> droughts in some of the largest food producing areas, causing massive
> famines. Food prices will skyrocket, and billions could die. At greatest
> risk are the big rice producing areas in South Asia, which depend
> on glacial run off from the Himalayas. If the glaciers melt, this
> will be gone. California faces a similar problem if the Sierra snowpack
> disappears. Rising sea levels displacing 500 million people in low
> lying coastal areas is another big problem. One of the 77 year old
> professor’s early books “The Population Bomb” was required reading
> for me in college in 1970, and I used to drive up from Los Angeles
> to hear his lectures (followed by the obligatory side trip to the
> Haight-Ashbury). Other big risks to the economy are the threat of
> a third world nuclear war caused by population pressures, and global
> plagues facilitated by a widespread growth of intercontinental transportation
> and globalization. And I won’t get into the threat of a giant solar
> flare frying our electrical grid. “Super consumption” in the US needs
> to be reined in where the population is growing the fastest. If the
> world adopts an American standard of living, we need four more Earths
> to supply the needed natural resources. We need to raise the price
> of all forms of carbon, preferably through taxes, but cap and trade
> will work too. Population control is the answer to all of these problems,
> which is best achieved by giving women an education, jobs, and rights,
> and has already worked well in Europe and Japan. All sobering food
> for thought.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89059-prisma-goes-contrarian-on-potash-industry?source=feed#comment-223417 223417 Tue, 05 Aug 2008 15:39:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79156-4-stocks-in-trouble?source=feed#comment-175593 175593
The market darlings (ferts, coal, steel, oil/gas services, drybulk, et al) have serious fundamentals behind them, and no prospects of slowing. This isn't like trading technicals on the INDU, SPX, QQQQ, DBA, DBC, etc.

FWIW, buying the hot stocks on dips to/near their 20EMAs has been an unreal technical trading strategy this year. IMO, the trade now is buying calls on the above situation. The gains and accuracy % have been unreal. I could list the major watch names if anyone expressed interest (probably similar to the author's).]]> Wed, 28 May 2008 19:48:54 -0400
The market darlings (ferts, coal, steel, oil/gas services, drybulk, et al) have serious fundamentals behind them, and no prospects of slowing. This isn't like trading technicals on the INDU, SPX, QQQQ, DBA, DBC, etc.

FWIW, buying the hot stocks on dips to/near their 20EMAs has been an unreal technical trading strategy this year. IMO, the trade now is buying calls on the above situation. The gains and accuracy % have been unreal. I could list the major watch names if anyone expressed interest (probably similar to the author's).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/74590-first-solar-s-future-bright-or-dim?source=feed#comment-159233 159233 Wed, 30 Apr 2008 09:02:15 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/74590-first-solar-s-future-bright-or-dim?source=feed#comment-159216 159216 Wed, 30 Apr 2008 08:50:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/74316-increasing-ethanol-demand-and-the-likely-price-implications-for-corn?source=feed#comment-158329 158329
Corn to trade even higher...]]> Mon, 28 Apr 2008 22:24:49 -0400
Corn to trade even higher...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/74316-increasing-ethanol-demand-and-the-likely-price-implications-for-corn?source=feed#comment-158196 158196
Today's move should be reversed tomorrow (corn to drop / beans to gain).]]> Mon, 28 Apr 2008 17:02:58 -0400
Today's move should be reversed tomorrow (corn to drop / beans to gain).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/74385-baird-likely-underestimating-bucyrus-s-profitability-potential?source=feed#comment-158191 158191 Mon, 28 Apr 2008 16:56:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/74345-potash-mosaic-are-looking-fertile?source=feed#comment-158189 158189 Mon, 28 Apr 2008 16:55:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/74067-potash-should-jump-on-massive-jpmorgan-estimates-boost?source=feed#comment-156401 156401 Fri, 25 Apr 2008 08:31:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/74003-three-potash-producers-benefitting-from-rising-prices?source=feed#comment-156399 156399
Which one had their earnings and conference call yesterday?
Which one has the highest earnings off which to base PE?
Which one would that not represent a price jump of 150 or 250% on?]]> Fri, 25 Apr 2008 08:29:17 -0400
Which one had their earnings and conference call yesterday?
Which one has the highest earnings off which to base PE?
Which one would that not represent a price jump of 150 or 250% on?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/72744-options-traders-call-potash-the-new-crude?source=feed#comment-154979 154979
Well over a double in 3 days.]]> Tue, 22 Apr 2008 21:35:57 -0400
Well over a double in 3 days.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/73211-move-over-visa-intrepid-potash-is-the-ipo-of-the-year?source=feed#comment-154950 154950
UKRA.IL

Much more swallowable valuation on the pure-play, but comes with some government intervention. Just announced $1000 Asian spot, as expected.

(long)]]> Tue, 22 Apr 2008 20:25:19 -0400
UKRA.IL

Much more swallowable valuation on the pure-play, but comes with some government intervention. Just announced $1000 Asian spot, as expected.

(long)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/72744-options-traders-call-potash-the-new-crude?source=feed#comment-154949 154949
$1000 potash from Uralkali (as previously noted) - although inclusive of freight.

"The new price level in Asian markets will be $1,000 a metric tonne cost and freight for Standard MOP."
www.forbes.com/markets...

UKRA.IL (long)]]> Tue, 22 Apr 2008 20:18:57 -0400
$1000 potash from Uralkali (as previously noted) - although inclusive of freight.

"The new price level in Asian markets will be $1,000 a metric tonne cost and freight for Standard MOP."
www.forbes.com/markets...

UKRA.IL (long)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/72212-options-trader-monday-outlook?source=feed#comment-152560 152560
About that "peak oil..." How much has been discovered this week alone? And finally someone with a brain has figured out how to speed up the process of oil creation - dramatically!

www.tiftongazette.com/...]]> Thu, 17 Apr 2008 20:02:52 -0400
About that "peak oil..." How much has been discovered this week alone? And finally someone with a brain has figured out how to speed up the process of oil creation - dramatically!

www.tiftongazette.com/...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/72744-options-traders-call-potash-the-new-crude?source=feed#comment-152551 152551
2. Volitility is because of earnings April 24th. The street cannot keep up with the numbers of this company (and because they would be viewed as crazy by outsiders if they publicly tried).

3. HA HA HA Carter Worth. You're quoting him from that Fast Money gig last night? His mind can't handle earnings growth. His expertise lies elsewhere. You must have seen his pan on GOOG during the analyst interview. Great call on GOOG Carter!

4. Also, DSX Lover - if you can't see potash prices rising next year, you need to do a lot more research on supply & demand. In fact, any research would be an improvement. Belorus head already said that he sees $1000 soon. I'll let you figure out if that's an increase or not. By the way, what is POT's existing PE? Using trailing #s would be quite silly, or you'd have to say that POT's growth rate is well over 100%. Which would make the PEG ratio what?]]> Thu, 17 Apr 2008 19:45:31 -0400
2. Volitility is because of earnings April 24th. The street cannot keep up with the numbers of this company (and because they would be viewed as crazy by outsiders if they publicly tried).

3. HA HA HA Carter Worth. You're quoting him from that Fast Money gig last night? His mind can't handle earnings growth. His expertise lies elsewhere. You must have seen his pan on GOOG during the analyst interview. Great call on GOOG Carter!

4. Also, DSX Lover - if you can't see potash prices rising next year, you need to do a lot more research on supply & demand. In fact, any research would be an improvement. Belorus head already said that he sees $1000 soon. I'll let you figure out if that's an increase or not. By the way, what is POT's existing PE? Using trailing #s would be quite silly, or you'd have to say that POT's growth rate is well over 100%. Which would make the PEG ratio what?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/72654-12-potash-companies-sprinting-ahead?source=feed#comment-152301 152301
In fact, there's almost nothing written about the Potash Jrs; so when I saw this on 2 sites back-to-back without reference (that I could find), I wanted to make sure whomever took the time to lay this out was given due credit.

Personal Disclosure: Long RAY.V, KCL.V, MAA.V.]]> Thu, 17 Apr 2008 12:39:19 -0400
In fact, there's almost nothing written about the Potash Jrs; so when I saw this on 2 sites back-to-back without reference (that I could find), I wanted to make sure whomever took the time to lay this out was given due credit.

Personal Disclosure: Long RAY.V, KCL.V, MAA.V.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/72654-12-potash-companies-sprinting-ahead?source=feed#comment-152106 152106
www.theinvestar.com/po...
www.theinvestar.com/po...
www.theinvestar.com/po...]]> Thu, 17 Apr 2008 08:33:39 -0400
www.theinvestar.com/po...
www.theinvestar.com/po...
www.theinvestar.com/po...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/72092-jim-rogers-picks-and-pans-barron-s-interview?source=feed#comment-151352 151352
My best ideas -
LNN (best - big ag play)
FLS
BMI (know this one from inside, strong play)
CWCO
]]> Tue, 15 Apr 2008 20:40:04 -0400
My best ideas -
LNN (best - big ag play)
FLS
BMI (know this one from inside, strong play)
CWCO
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/72212-options-trader-monday-outlook?source=feed#comment-150785 150785
But we're talking world production here. Certain countries will peak now or soon. However, that production and more will come from unconventional. New recovery technology and the new price of oil will hasten it.

And that's not even mentioning 'new' oil. The peak oil doomsayers remind me of the global warming (excuse me, climate change) fanatics. Their predictions never come true. Ironically, global warming would dramatically increase the formation of new oil prerequisite.]]> Mon, 14 Apr 2008 21:56:47 -0400
But we're talking world production here. Certain countries will peak now or soon. However, that production and more will come from unconventional. New recovery technology and the new price of oil will hasten it.

And that's not even mentioning 'new' oil. The peak oil doomsayers remind me of the global warming (excuse me, climate change) fanatics. Their predictions never come true. Ironically, global warming would dramatically increase the formation of new oil prerequisite.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/72212-options-trader-monday-outlook?source=feed#comment-150584 150584
Enough of the peak oil followers calling a "peak" year-after-year... And being wrong every time.]]> Mon, 14 Apr 2008 15:58:33 -0400
Enough of the peak oil followers calling a "peak" year-after-year... And being wrong every time.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70609-cutting-back-on-powershares-db-agriculture-to-avoid-hedge-fund-panic?source=feed#comment-134700 134700
www.farmassist.com/New...

Daily market commentary that has been spot-on. Following it today would have been *extremely* profitable.]]> Tue, 01 Apr 2008 15:27:09 -0400
www.farmassist.com/New...

Daily market commentary that has been spot-on. Following it today would have been *extremely* profitable.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70609-cutting-back-on-powershares-db-agriculture-to-avoid-hedge-fund-panic?source=feed#comment-134567 134567 Tue, 01 Apr 2008 11:37:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/70609-cutting-back-on-powershares-db-agriculture-to-avoid-hedge-fund-panic?source=feed#comment-134362 134362 Mon, 31 Mar 2008 20:58:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/67520-all-commodities-extremely-overbought-except-oj?source=feed#comment-123198 123198 Thu, 06 Mar 2008 17:18:21 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/66257-commodity-etfs-overbought-gold-least-so?source=feed#comment-119858 119858 Wed, 27 Feb 2008 15:30:39 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/66257-commodity-etfs-overbought-gold-least-so?source=feed#comment-119635 119635 Wed, 27 Feb 2008 08:28:05 -0500