Gunslinger

The Start of a Dry Spell for POT?

Too bad there has been NO global warming this decade. Kinda shoots down all that talk.

Ironically, global cooling would result in temperate shifts that would have a negative impact on North American wheat and corn production - leading to the crop shortages.

Take a look for the recent cycle of sunspots that we are in, and what impact that will have on temperatures and agriculture. A decent net search should eventually provide those papers.


On Apr 24 10:11 AM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> I don't think so. Pack your portfolios with agricultural plays like
> Potash (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), Mosaic (seekingalpha.com/symbo...),
> and Agrium (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) if Dr. Paul Ehrlich
> is just partially right about the impending collapse in the world’s
> food supply. You might even throw in long positions in wheat, corn,
> soybeans, and rice. The never dull, and often controversial Stanford
> biology professor told me he expects that global warming is leading
> to significant changes in world weather patterns that will cause
> droughts in some of the largest food producing areas, causing massive
> famines. Food prices will skyrocket, and billions could die. At greatest
> risk are the big rice producing areas in South Asia, which depend
> on glacial run off from the Himalayas. If the glaciers melt, this
> will be gone. California faces a similar problem if the Sierra snowpack
> disappears. Rising sea levels displacing 500 million people in low
> lying coastal areas is another big problem. One of the 77 year old
> professor’s early books “The Population Bomb” was required reading
> for me in college in 1970, and I used to drive up from Los Angeles
> to hear his lectures (followed by the obligatory side trip to the
> Haight-Ashbury). Other big risks to the economy are the threat of
> a third world nuclear war caused by population pressures, and global
> plagues facilitated by a widespread growth of intercontinental transportation
> and globalization. And I won’t get into the threat of a giant solar
> flare frying our electrical grid. “Super consumption” in the US needs
> to be reined in where the population is growing the fastest. If the
> world adopts an American standard of living, we need four more Earths
> to supply the needed natural resources. We need to raise the price
> of all forms of carbon, preferably through taxes, but cap and trade
> will work too. Population control is the answer to all of these problems,
> which is best achieved by giving women an education, jobs, and rights,
> and has already worked well in Europe and Japan. All sobering food
> for thought.

Prisma Goes Contrarian on Potash Industry

Except for the fact that the EuroChem and Rio plans have been baked into the industry for a while now. Nothing new announced there, contrary to that "research."

Increasing Ethanol Demand and the Likely Price Implications for Corn

Scratch that 20%. The report table was printed backwards. This year was actually 10%.

Corn to trade even higher...

Increasing Ethanol Demand and the Likely Price Implications for Corn

USDA came out with corn 20% planted so far. Ahead of estimates, although still way behind normal of course.

Today's move should be reversed tomorrow (corn to drop / beans to gain).

Potash, Mosaic Are Looking Fertile

N

Potash Should Jump on Massive JPMorgan Estimates Boost

JPM is eating the old-school analysts' lunch. I've been impressed with their calls I've seen in the last year.

Three Potash Producers Benefitting from Rising Prices

Shouldn't take a rocket scientist to figure out which one...

Which one had their earnings and conference call yesterday?
Which one has the highest earnings off which to base PE?
Which one would that not represent a price jump of 150 or 250% on?

Options Traders Call Potash the "New Crude"

May 220s... closed @ 14.30

Well over a double in 3 days.

Move over Visa, Intrepid Potash Is the IPO of the Year

Better play, if you can trade Int'l.

UKRA.IL

Much more swallowable valuation on the pure-play, but comes with some government intervention. Just announced $1000 Asian spot, as expected.

(long)

Options Traders Call Potash the "New Crude"

Only took one week...

$1000 potash from Uralkali (as previously noted) - although inclusive of freight.

"The new price level in Asian markets will be $1,000 a metric tonne cost and freight for Standard MOP."
www.forbes.com/markets...

UKRA.IL (long)

Options Trader: Monday Outlook

I will wager a lot on which one of us is more knowledgeable on the climate.

About that "peak oil..." How much has been discovered this week alone? And finally someone with a brain has figured out how to speed up the process of oil creation - dramatically!

www.tiftongazette.com/...

Options Traders Call Potash the "New Crude"

1. About those May 220s - On my watch list all day. Traded over 17,000 calls today, while the open interest was under 1000 prior. Ding ding.

2. Volitility is because of earnings April 24th. The street cannot keep up with the numbers of this company (and because they would be viewed as crazy by outsiders if they publicly tried).

3. HA HA HA Carter Worth. You're quoting him from that Fast Money gig last night? His mind can't handle earnings growth. His expertise lies elsewhere. You must have seen his pan on GOOG during the analyst interview. Great call on GOOG Carter!

4. Also, DSX Lover - if you can't see potash prices rising next year, you need to do a lot more research on supply & demand. In fact, any research would be an improvement. Belorus head already said that he sees $1000 soon. I'll let you figure out if that's an increase or not. By the way, what is POT's existing PE? Using trailing #s would be quite silly, or you'd have to say that POT's growth rate is well over 100%. Which would make the PEG ratio what?

12 Potash Companies Sprinting Ahead

Ok, awesome - good writeup Matt. I've just seen too many cut & pastes across the internet without sourcing. Hope you guys understand :)

In fact, there's almost nothing written about the Potash Jrs; so when I saw this on 2 sites back-to-back without reference (that I could find), I wanted to make sure whomever took the time to lay this out was given due credit.

Personal Disclosure: Long RAY.V, KCL.V, MAA.V.

12 Potash Companies Sprinting Ahead

Whoa, whoa, whoa. Unless you are a writer for -theinvestar, SOURCE THIS. Total cut & paste job, even changing the title...

www.theinvestar.com/po...
www.theinvestar.com/po...
www.theinvestar.com/po...

Options Trader: Monday Outlook

I have no doubt oil prices will trend higher.

But we're talking world production here. Certain countries will peak now or soon. However, that production and more will come from unconventional. New recovery technology and the new price of oil will hasten it.

And that's not even mentioning 'new' oil. The peak oil doomsayers remind me of the global warming (excuse me, climate change) fanatics. Their predictions never come true. Ironically, global warming would dramatically increase the formation of new oil prerequisite.