just.a.guy

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    • Mon Mar 17th 12:40 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Next Up: Lehman Brothers?
      This is probably a pretty accurate way to measure risk for financial firms in particular. After all, the biggest piles of money moving against Lehman on the short side, buying puts, and so on, are going to be those of their Wall Street bretheren -- those most in the know about what's really going on at Lehman... who's trading with them and who's not, etc.

      In fact, using public equity share price as a risk indicator is pretty much an admission that investment bank stocks move due to asymmetries of material non-public information -- that is to say, insider trading.
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    • Thu Mar 6th 12:52 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Will BofA Really Buy Countrywide?
      kurt, I think that's what could be happening here. BAC has right-of-first-refusal on the assets as part of its $2BB convertible death-spiral financing last year.

      I see the current deal on the table as just a call option for BAC, since it will have/has had a serious chilling effect on any other potential bidders.

      Why would the deal just be a call option and not binding? Here, I assume that Countrywide's financial position will only continue to deteriorate, that the quality of its portfolio held-for-sale will only decline, and thus a Material Adverse Change to CFC is pretty much inevitable.

      BAC will have front row seats, have done their diligence, and be in the driver's seat when this turns into a pre-packaged bankruptcy with BAC walking away with the servicing business.

      Just a theory. Not one I believe in strong enough to hold onto my CFC puts, though. I sold those last month.
      View article »
    • Mon Mar 3rd 14:38 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      What Hedge Funds and Porno Have in Common
      If he wants to market to the public, he should register and subject himself to the same regulatory regime used for publicly marketed funds.

      In short, he should start a mutual fund.

      Oh, but wait, that would likely eliminate the 2/20 compensation scheme.

      Nevermind.
      View article »
    • Sun Mar 2nd 02:02 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Google CTR Down Due To Click Area Changes
      User 159136 -- Google doesn't have to close the loop on the buyer/seller experience, and in fact any advertiser with a brain doesn't want to let them.

      Those who are intelligent enough to calculate conversion rates of impressions->clicks... will bid appropriately, given the expected value of whatever is charged for (in GOOG's case, clicks).

      Those who are too stupid or lazy to do so will get fleeced.

      The SEO Black Hat analysis above is correct. CPC for affected ads will rise as the expected value of those clicks rises as well. I would be surprised if this adjustment did not happen extremely quickly (days or weeks), given how closely most advertisers of any sophistication manage their online PPC campaigns.
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    • Fri Feb 29th 16:54 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Book Review: Jim Rogers' "A Bull in China"
      A great investor is a great investor. This article's author is just bitter that Jim Rogers can recognize a good opportunity and get immediate press and recognition attached to his name when he sees it.

      The author should build himself a solid 20-30 year track record of investing globally across multiple asset classes, and then feel free to opine on Rogers' misperceptions.

      Until then, he just comes across as jealous and petty.

      This type of attitude is not an uncommon attitude among academics in economics and finance, who see contemporaries with inferior credentials and analysis striking it rich in finance while they toil over econometrics models.
      View article »
    • Fri Feb 29th 16:36 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Investors, Traders Create 'Perfect Storm' for Currency ETFs
      It is also worth looking at the Rydex Yen fund (FXY, in the same family), as a bet on continued printing press hyperacceleration by the US Fed, and the potential unwind of the Yen carry trade -- maybe even the development of a carry trade in ever-cheaper US currency.
      View article »
    • Wed Feb 27th 11:55 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Microsoft: Where Fines Are a Cost of Doing Business
      The parents in Freakanomics were likely not going through a rational cost/benefit analysis, whereas Microsoft certainly is. Corrolary: Penalties that don't hurt aren't a deterrent.
      View article »
    • Wed Feb 27th 11:33 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Commodity ETFs Overbought; Gold Least So
      Why not write the real story? That this is a leading indicator of much higher inflation to come (if it isn't already here), and probably a lower dollar as well. Commodities ETFs are telling you a lot more than just their price. Listen.
      View article »
    • Wed Feb 27th 11:27 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Buying Google, All the Way Down
      I remember last time there was a recession (2001-2002) and online ad spending quickly dumped 20%. This was in the face of a long-term macro trend of runaway growth in online ad spending. Yahoo! was sliced and diced valuation-wise in the process.

      There is some chance things are different here. Maybe because of CPC and advertising accountability, or maybe because of today's 80% penetration of broadband in the US (market size catching market hype). But I don't think so.

      I also don't buy into the diversification of their business model. That was the same story with Yahoo! It was the same story with Microsoft and msn (which took what, a decade plus to become profitable?)

      The fact is that nothing that they do short of counterfeiting currency will come close to matching the income generating power of their pony's one trick.

      And if the 20% ad spending decline scenario repeats, there will be a vicious cycle here. Ad spending down. Google growth 0 or lower. Google P/E contraction. Google stock down. A big slug of Google options worthless. A big slug of Google employees leaves, maybe a round of layoffs(?) Morale down. Productivity down. Growth slows. Lather, rinse, repeat.

      We've seen a similar story before and it was called Yahoo!

      Disclosure: I have owned puts on Google for several months.
      View article »
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