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just.a.guy
9 Comments
Next Up: Lehman Brothers?
In fact, using public equity share price as a risk indicator is pretty much an admission that investment bank stocks move due to asymmetries of material non-public information -- that is to say, insider trading.
Will BofA Really Buy Countrywide?
I see the current deal on the table as just a call option for BAC, since it will have/has had a serious chilling effect on any other potential bidders.
Why would the deal just be a call option and not binding? Here, I assume that Countrywide's financial position will only continue to deteriorate, that the quality of its portfolio held-for-sale will only decline, and thus a Material Adverse Change to CFC is pretty much inevitable.
BAC will have front row seats, have done their diligence, and be in the driver's seat when this turns into a pre-packaged bankruptcy with BAC walking away with the servicing business.
Just a theory. Not one I believe in strong enough to hold onto my CFC puts, though. I sold those last month.
What Hedge Funds and Porno Have in Common
In short, he should start a mutual fund.
Oh, but wait, that would likely eliminate the 2/20 compensation scheme.
Nevermind.
Google CTR Down Due To Click Area Changes
Those who are intelligent enough to calculate conversion rates of impressions->clicks... will bid appropriately, given the expected value of whatever is charged for (in GOOG's case, clicks).
Those who are too stupid or lazy to do so will get fleeced.
The SEO Black Hat analysis above is correct. CPC for affected ads will rise as the expected value of those clicks rises as well. I would be surprised if this adjustment did not happen extremely quickly (days or weeks), given how closely most advertisers of any sophistication manage their online PPC campaigns.
Book Review: Jim Rogers' "A Bull in China"
The author should build himself a solid 20-30 year track record of investing globally across multiple asset classes, and then feel free to opine on Rogers' misperceptions.
Until then, he just comes across as jealous and petty.
This type of attitude is not an uncommon attitude among academics in economics and finance, who see contemporaries with inferior credentials and analysis striking it rich in finance while they toil over econometrics models.
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Buying Google, All the Way Down
There is some chance things are different here. Maybe because of CPC and advertising accountability, or maybe because of today's 80% penetration of broadband in the US (market size catching market hype). But I don't think so.
I also don't buy into the diversification of their business model. That was the same story with Yahoo! It was the same story with Microsoft and msn (which took what, a decade plus to become profitable?)
The fact is that nothing that they do short of counterfeiting currency will come close to matching the income generating power of their pony's one trick.
And if the 20% ad spending decline scenario repeats, there will be a vicious cycle here. Ad spending down. Google growth 0 or lower. Google P/E contraction. Google stock down. A big slug of Google options worthless. A big slug of Google employees leaves, maybe a round of layoffs(?) Morale down. Productivity down. Growth slows. Lather, rinse, repeat.
We've seen a similar story before and it was called Yahoo!
Disclosure: I have owned puts on Google for several months.