just.a.guy

What Hedge Funds and Porno Have in Common

If he wants to market to the public, he should register and subject himself to the same regulatory regime used for publicly marketed funds.

In short, he should start a mutual fund.

Oh, but wait, that would likely eliminate the 2/20 compensation scheme.

Nevermind.

Google CTR Down Due To Click Area Changes

User 159136 -- Google doesn't have to close the loop on the buyer/seller experience, and in fact any advertiser with a brain doesn't want to let them.

Those who are intelligent enough to calculate conversion rates of impressions->clicks... will bid appropriately, given the expected value of whatever is charged for (in GOOG's case, clicks).

Those who are too stupid or lazy to do so will get fleeced.

The SEO Black Hat analysis above is correct. CPC for affected ads will rise as the expected value of those clicks rises as well. I would be surprised if this adjustment did not happen extremely quickly (days or weeks), given how closely most advertisers of any sophistication manage their online PPC campaigns.

Book Review: Jim Rogers' "A Bull in China"

A great investor is a great investor. This article's author is just bitter that Jim Rogers can recognize a good opportunity and get immediate press and recognition attached to his name when he sees it.

The author should build himself a solid 20-30 year track record of investing globally across multiple asset classes, and then feel free to opine on Rogers' misperceptions.

Until then, he just comes across as jealous and petty.

This type of attitude is not an uncommon attitude among academics in economics and finance, who see contemporaries with inferior credentials and analysis striking it rich in finance while they toil over econometrics models.

Investors, Traders Create 'Perfect Storm' for Currency ETFs

It is also worth looking at the Rydex Yen fund (FXY, in the same family), as a bet on continued printing press hyperacceleration by the US Fed, and the potential unwind of the Yen carry trade -- maybe even the development of a carry trade in ever-cheaper US currency.

Microsoft: Where Fines Are a Cost of Doing Business

The parents in Freakanomics were likely not going through a rational cost/benefit analysis, whereas Microsoft certainly is. Corrolary: Penalties that don't hurt aren't a deterrent.

Commodity ETFs Overbought; Gold Least So

Why not write the real story? That this is a leading indicator of much higher inflation to come (if it isn't already here), and probably a lower dollar as well. Commodities ETFs are telling you a lot more than just their price. Listen.

Buying Google, All the Way Down

I remember last time there was a recession (2001-2002) and online ad spending quickly dumped 20%. This was in the face of a long-term macro trend of runaway growth in online ad spending. Yahoo! was sliced and diced valuation-wise in the process.

There is some chance things are different here. Maybe because of CPC and advertising accountability, or maybe because of today's 80% penetration of broadband in the US (market size catching market hype). But I don't think so.

I also don't buy into the diversification of their business model. That was the same story with Yahoo! It was the same story with Microsoft and msn (which took what, a decade plus to become profitable?)

The fact is that nothing that they do short of counterfeiting currency will come close to matching the income generating power of their pony's one trick.

And if the 20% ad spending decline scenario repeats, there will be a vicious cycle here. Ad spending down. Google growth 0 or lower. Google P/E contraction. Google stock down. A big slug of Google options worthless. A big slug of Google employees leaves, maybe a round of layoffs(?) Morale down. Productivity down. Growth slows. Lather, rinse, repeat.

We've seen a similar story before and it was called Yahoo!

Disclosure: I have owned puts on Google for several months.