The 7 Plagues Of Investor Confidence [View article]
I read this article and the comments that follow, and they reconfirm a developing feeling I've had for a number of years about our current society, especially in the U.S.. That is, we've developed this absurd societal trait that life should somehow be risk free, that nobody should take risks, that risk is bad, and that positive returns and eternal happiness should somehow be a God-given right. Those that pursue this life strategy, whether in their daily activities, worried about crossing every street, and/or in their investment affairs, never putting capital at risk, will have both joyless and economically unrewarding lives. But, they'll imagine that they're "safe."
The Current U.S. Stock Market Collapse Makes No Sense [View article]
MC:
The distinction is responses you outline is, at least to me, very apparent here in SA, underlying many of the comments that have been made about the markets ever since March 2009.
There were those that panicked, sold everything, stayed away and have become bitter about their own errors and tried to justify their behavior by suggesting that everything that's occurred since has been fraudulent, conspiratorial, temporary, etc., instead of just accepting their own error in judgment, moving on and making decisions based on today's realities. In essence, they're trapped psychologically by their past error.
Those that kept their heads about them and stayed in the game and re-allocated resources accordingly have had a nice recovery, and even more in some instances. More importantly, their current assessments are not corrupted by a subconscious need to try to justify their prior behavior by discrediting everything that's happened since.
Want to buy banks? Look at some of the regionals, says Dick Bove. The big universals are dealing with a multitude of issues that impede their competitiveness, while community banks are being weighed down by regulations that are driving them out of the business. Firms in the middle tier however, are growing their key commercial and industrial lending portfolios while their competitors have had to pull back. His picks: US Bancorp (USB), PNC Financial (PNC) and Capital One (COF). [View news story]
YTD shares performance for selected regional banks:
S&P500 +4.8%
USB +15% COF +22% PNC +08% FITB +06% STI +28% RF +47% HBAN +17%
11 More Hard Facts About The Housing Recovery [View article]
WSD:
Have at it.
I'm happy, content, secure and making money. I've been successfully engaged in a particular approach to investing for almost twenty years. I have iterated my strategy numerous times for anybody who wishes to consider it and might benefit.
One would assume from your constant stream of invective about the state of the world, you're not pleased with your results. But, if you are, perhaps, you could enlighten readers about your own investment strategies, if you can spare a few minutes from the constant negativity. Just lay out your approach for folks to make money. They'll appreciate it a lot more than constant dart throwing.
P.S. There are lots of "icons" who have no idea which end is up. That's why one must develop a consistent plan and ignore publicity-seeking punditry.
Not much equivocation from Marc Faber, who sees a "100% certainty" of a global recession in 2013. Though global stocks are ready to rebound in the short term, and markets would launch a relief rally if Greece exits the euro, a recession is sure to come thanks less to Europe's travails but from a "meaningful slowdown" in India and China. [View news story]
Gee, I just recall that ECRI had announced a "guaranteed" recession in 2012. I guess Faber wanted to steal the march on next year before ECRI beat him to it.
11 More Hard Facts About The Housing Recovery [View article]
By "injections," if you mean QE, these stopped last June. The termination of QE2, in fact, was one of the contributing factors to the panicky sell-off last July/August, as some thought the economy would fold.
The subsequent "Twist" program is money-supply neutral. Apparently, the economy was able to grow quite happily without additional QE, despite persistent disbelief.
11 More Hard Facts About The Housing Recovery [View article]
Ralph:
"A 1% increase in interest rates would put it in a tail spin."
On the contrary, a rise in rates from current never-before-seen rates will boost housing. Firstly, lots of would-be buyers, who've been told that prices and rates will remain ever low will be prompted into action, as soon as they see rates rising, not falling or even remaining the same. Secondly, banks will get happier about making loans at higher rates, and financing has been one of the impediments, so far, to a more rapid recovery.
Rising rates from these historic low levels is completely different in its initial effects than rates rising from 5, 6 or 7%.
Digressing, in fact, the entire economy will be boosted if ZIRP is finally shelved. ZIRP is suppressing monetary velocity because neither buyers nor lenders are inspired into action. When rates languish, the opportunity cost for doing nothing is near zero, so people feel no urgency to make decisions.
The EU escalates its fight with Argentina, filing a formal complaint with the WTO challenging the country's import regulations. EU officials say Argentina's decision to nationalize Repsol's local YPF unit was only the most recent in a series of moves by Cristina Kirchner's government that have harmed foreign investors and manufacturers. (earlier) [View news story]
There is very little, now, which differentiates Argentina from its totalitarian communist forebears. And, the situation gets worse each day.
I suspect the old military-junta types are taking their uniforms out of mothballs and dusting them off, as we speak.
In the face of a nasty Greek exit from the eurozone, investors have little choice now but to cling to low-yielding U.S. government debt, says Pimco's Bill Gross. Despite our own debt mess, a flight from risk assets is going to continue to send money into Treasurys. "It's what we call the cleanest dirty shirt," Gross says; "at the moment the cleanest dirty shirt is the United States." [View news story]
TVP:
If there's a broad panic in Europe, money will flow firstly to where it always does, the good-ol' U.S. of A. Even Switzerland would be a distant second.
11 More Hard Facts About The Housing Recovery [View article]
MC:
Yes, let's make sure all "evil" folks with capital --good ones and less savory ones -- leave the country and take their money along, too. You've just made the classic socialist argument for sharing the misery, as long as we're all "equal."
Are you serious? I'll tell you what, the world is abundant with places lacking any capital formation and possessing even stronger socialist and/or communist tendencies than infect us, presently. Why not emmigrate to their happy climes, rather than suggesting to emulate their sorry status here?
The Current U.S. Stock Market Collapse Makes No Sense [View article]
ERM:
Nobody in Europe, especially Germany, is about to make any broad-brush policy changes prior to the June 17th Greek elections.
Personally, what I anticipate is that if Greece plays ball, then, there will be some gradually-modulated support for economic expansion. If Greece, however, commits suicide, then, the EU, Germany included, will have only a single recourse to prevent a rapid escalation in systemic deterioration. That recourse will have to be a "shock-and-awe" bank support and stimulus plan for remaining weaker EU countries, i.e., lots of ECB printing.
If the EU is not prepared, a priori, for such a course to be launched simultaneous with any Greece withdrawal or expulsion, then the EU will unravel very quickly. I don't believe that even Germany favors such an outcome, so it would surprise me if they allowed such a course to be followed while they merely stand by and observe.
11 More Hard Facts About The Housing Recovery [View article]
Bet they both make money.
The 7 Plagues Of Investor Confidence [View article]
The Current U.S. Stock Market Collapse Makes No Sense [View article]
The distinction is responses you outline is, at least to me, very apparent here in SA, underlying many of the comments that have been made about the markets ever since March 2009.
There were those that panicked, sold everything, stayed away and have become bitter about their own errors and tried to justify their behavior by suggesting that everything that's occurred since has been fraudulent, conspiratorial, temporary, etc., instead of just accepting their own error in judgment, moving on and making decisions based on today's realities. In essence, they're trapped psychologically by their past error.
Those that kept their heads about them and stayed in the game and re-allocated resources accordingly have had a nice recovery, and even more in some instances. More importantly, their current assessments are not corrupted by a subconscious need to try to justify their prior behavior by discrediting everything that's happened since.
Want to buy banks? Look at some of the regionals, says Dick Bove. The big universals are dealing with a multitude of issues that impede their competitiveness, while community banks are being weighed down by regulations that are driving them out of the business. Firms in the middle tier however, are growing their key commercial and industrial lending portfolios while their competitors have had to pull back. His picks: US Bancorp (USB), PNC Financial (PNC) and Capital One (COF). [View news story]
S&P500 +4.8%
USB +15%
COF +22%
PNC +08%
FITB +06%
STI +28%
RF +47%
HBAN +17%
Not too shabby.
11 More Hard Facts About The Housing Recovery [View article]
Have at it.
I'm happy, content, secure and making money. I've been successfully engaged in a particular approach to investing for almost twenty years. I have iterated my strategy numerous times for anybody who wishes to consider it and might benefit.
One would assume from your constant stream of invective about the state of the world, you're not pleased with your results. But, if you are, perhaps, you could enlighten readers about your own investment strategies, if you can spare a few minutes from the constant negativity. Just lay out your approach for folks to make money. They'll appreciate it a lot more than constant dart throwing.
P.S. There are lots of "icons" who have no idea which end is up. That's why one must develop a consistent plan and ignore publicity-seeking punditry.
11 More Hard Facts About The Housing Recovery [View article]
Now, I understand your problem. You hang out with too many losers.
Not much equivocation from Marc Faber, who sees a "100% certainty" of a global recession in 2013. Though global stocks are ready to rebound in the short term, and markets would launch a relief rally if Greece exits the euro, a recession is sure to come thanks less to Europe's travails but from a "meaningful slowdown" in India and China. [View news story]
11 More Hard Facts About The Housing Recovery [View article]
The subsequent "Twist" program is money-supply neutral. Apparently, the economy was able to grow quite happily without additional QE, despite persistent disbelief.
11 More Hard Facts About The Housing Recovery [View article]
"A 1% increase in interest rates would put it in a tail spin."
On the contrary, a rise in rates from current never-before-seen rates will boost housing. Firstly, lots of would-be buyers, who've been told that prices and rates will remain ever low will be prompted into action, as soon as they see rates rising, not falling or even remaining the same. Secondly, banks will get happier about making loans at higher rates, and financing has been one of the impediments, so far, to a more rapid recovery.
Rising rates from these historic low levels is completely different in its initial effects than rates rising from 5, 6 or 7%.
Digressing, in fact, the entire economy will be boosted if ZIRP is finally shelved. ZIRP is suppressing monetary velocity because neither buyers nor lenders are inspired into action. When rates languish, the opportunity cost for doing nothing is near zero, so people feel no urgency to make decisions.
The Current U.S. Stock Market Collapse Makes No Sense [View article]
I used to run the international business of a U.S. medical firm, and we had our European HQ in Zug. A fine country.
I hope you're still there.
11 More Hard Facts About The Housing Recovery [View article]
Anybody who is successful must be "corrupt and connected," right?
The EU escalates its fight with Argentina, filing a formal complaint with the WTO challenging the country's import regulations. EU officials say Argentina's decision to nationalize Repsol's local YPF unit was only the most recent in a series of moves by Cristina Kirchner's government that have harmed foreign investors and manufacturers. (earlier) [View news story]
I suspect the old military-junta types are taking their uniforms out of mothballs and dusting them off, as we speak.
In the face of a nasty Greek exit from the eurozone, investors have little choice now but to cling to low-yielding U.S. government debt, says Pimco's Bill Gross. Despite our own debt mess, a flight from risk assets is going to continue to send money into Treasurys. "It's what we call the cleanest dirty shirt," Gross says; "at the moment the cleanest dirty shirt is the United States." [View news story]
If there's a broad panic in Europe, money will flow firstly to where it always does, the good-ol' U.S. of A. Even Switzerland would be a distant second.
11 More Hard Facts About The Housing Recovery [View article]
Yes, let's make sure all "evil" folks with capital --good ones and less savory ones -- leave the country and take their money along, too. You've just made the classic socialist argument for sharing the misery, as long as we're all "equal."
Are you serious? I'll tell you what, the world is abundant with places lacking any capital formation and possessing even stronger socialist and/or communist tendencies than infect us, presently. Why not emmigrate to their happy climes, rather than suggesting to emulate their sorry status here?
The Current U.S. Stock Market Collapse Makes No Sense [View article]
Nobody in Europe, especially Germany, is about to make any broad-brush policy changes prior to the June 17th Greek elections.
Personally, what I anticipate is that if Greece plays ball, then, there will be some gradually-modulated support for economic expansion. If Greece, however, commits suicide, then, the EU, Germany included, will have only a single recourse to prevent a rapid escalation in systemic deterioration. That recourse will have to be a "shock-and-awe" bank support and stimulus plan for remaining weaker EU countries, i.e., lots of ECB printing.
If the EU is not prepared, a priori, for such a course to be launched simultaneous with any Greece withdrawal or expulsion, then the EU will unravel very quickly. I don't believe that even Germany favors such an outcome, so it would surprise me if they allowed such a course to be followed while they merely stand by and observe.