Middle East Meltdown Could Mean Oil at $300 a Barrel, Pump Prices of $9.57 a Gallon [View article]
Hey, why not $500/barrel or, maybe, $1,000? Sounds a lot scarier, don't you think?
Every time there's a hiccup anywhere in the world that lasts longer than it takes to type an article, we get an immediate blizzard of scare pieces, agitating the over-emotional into action, either dumping this or buying that, almost assuredly to no positive monetary outcome.
"No one in (China's) central government wants to end the party," says Northwesten Prof. Victor Shih, thus leaving local officials free to pursue their own highly ambitious growth objectives. One example: the building of the world's largest financial center in the city of Tianjin. [View news story]
Ten years after 9/11, I guess we can congratulate ourselves for prudently having a hole in the ground.
Hudson City Bancorp: Great Buying Opportunity or Bear Trap? [View article]
Chowder:
Many folks seem attracted to HCBK because of its yield, but they have a constrained strategy, as has become apparent. Now, with possible regulatory issues forcing their hand on capital ratios, it's not indefensible to take a break, even if temporarily.
Another bank, I'd offer for consideration, which I believe has tremendous growth prospects, an aggressive strategy and a nice 5+% dividend, is Santander (STD). All the fretting about Europe, and Spain, has held its price below value, although over 70% of STD's business is elsewhere. My guess is that STD will outperform HCBK rather handily, over time.
The relatively well-behaved price of rice is preventing a 2008 style food crisis says the OECD. A staple for 1/2 of the world, rice has increased by just 3.4% Y/Y, barely a blip when measured against the other grains. [View news story]
Hey, maybe, our "genius" Government can start a rice ethanol program.
Doug Kass issues a mea culpa for being "far too cautious and dogmatic" in his bearishness, and the recovery in corporate profits "has been so strong as to offset some of my concerns." He says he's not bullish, and some of the economic strength is based on "recession fatigue." Nevertheless, "conditions are not as bad as I had once feared." [View news story]
Roubini and Kass having thrown in the towel, when Rosenberg issues his buy signal, then, it will be time to think about lightening up.
John Hussman: Rich Valuations and Poor Market Returns [View article]
rambley:
Yes, I'll give you some advice. Don't get spooked by articles.
If you're risk averse (which you seem to be), you're making a curious pick in speculating on commodities. You're much more at risk playing highly-volatile commodities, which can trade limit-up or down in a day, for multiple days, than holding conventional stocks.
You're much better off finding specific "value" issues which you judge from your own research to be undervalued versus their norms and which pay attractive dividends. These types of issues will likely exhibit less volatility, will tend to gradually outperform "high flyers" and will pay you (dividends) to hold them, so you don't have to be instantly right about price direction.
Close to $100B of municipal bond defaults may occur over the next five years, Nouriel Roubini's consulting firm says - significantly more than in recent history, but not as dire as Meredith Whitney's apocalyptic prediction. "Defaults will continue to be isolated events," the report says, affecting mostly special projects and revenue generating entities that aren't considered viable. [View news story]
$20B per year? A rate of 2/3 of 1%?
This is hardly worth hyperventilating over, if it even happens.
Last night's winner of the Oscar for Best Documentary was Charles Ferguson's Inside Job. His acceptance speech: "Three years after our horrific financial crisis caused by financial fraud, not a single financial executive has gone to jail, and that's wrong." But are the film's depictions of the causes right? [View news story]
All this incessant bank bashing. You want to put somebody in the clink? Start with Dodd & Frank, both of whom, in their vote-pandering quest, started the whole snowball rolling down the hill with loans mandated to people who had no hope of being credit worthy.
Last night's winner of the Oscar for Best Documentary was Charles Ferguson's Inside Job. His acceptance speech: "Three years after our horrific financial crisis caused by financial fraud, not a single financial executive has gone to jail, and that's wrong." But are the film's depictions of the causes right? [View news story]
A documentary winning an Oscar is in the same league as winning the Nobel Peace Prize, merely a symbol of excellence for left-wing orthodoxy.
Don't kid yourself; of course gasoline prices could tip Americans back into recession - and considering the current fragility, maybe at lower price points than before, like $3.50/gallon. Old givens (such as: Saudi Arabia's regime will remain intact) are facing new questions. [View news story]
MG:
How CA may be doing has something to do with gasoline prices? How about unbridled government spending and entitlements?
And, guess what, CA's government issues aren't going to cause a national recession, either, but you can always hope.
Why Germany's Economic Fortress Could Come Toppling Down [View article]
AIP:
Last time I looked, reserves created within banks, diverted back to Treasury notes and spent by the Government would qualify as "cash in the hands of the non-bank public."
Why Germany's Economic Fortress Could Come Toppling Down [View article]
MC:
Banks aren't lending, not because they don't believe in the recovery and think drastic times are ahead. They are behaving very rationally, deciding that the riskless lending to Government produces a higher risk-adjusted return than lending to business at the current artificially-depressed rates.
Allow rates to rise a bit, and we'll see money flow to the private sector. Government largesse, also, needs to be constrained to allow this to happen.
Why Germany's Economic Fortress Could Come Toppling Down [View article]
Hoop:
First, read this description of Fed activities and responsibilities (courtesy Wikipedia):
"In its role as the central bank of the United States, the Fed serves as a banker's bank and as the government's bank. As the banker's bank, it helps to assure the safety and efficiency of the payments system. As the government's bank, or fiscal agent, the Fed processes a variety of financial transactions involving trillions of dollars. Just as an individual might keep an account at a bank, the U.S. Treasury keeps a checking account with the Federal Reserve, through which incoming federal tax deposits and outgoing government payments are handled. As part of this service relationship, the Fed sells and redeems U.S. government securities such as savings bonds and Treasury bills, notes and bonds. It also issues the nation's coin and paper currency. The U.S. Treasury, through its Bureau of the Mint and Bureau of Engraving and Printing, actually produces the nation's cash supply and, in effect, sells the paper currency to the Federal Reserve Banks at manufacturing cost, and the coins at face value. The Federal Reserve Banks then distribute it to other financial institutions in various ways."
The Fed does and is, presently doing, far more than "redistributing" existing assets. They are in fact providing the banks with new dollars --that didn't exist anywhere, previously-- and they are facilitating the sale of new Treasury notes to absorb those very same dollars, so the Federal Government, in its own wisdom, can use/spend those dollars for its own purposes.
The maintenance of ultra-low rates serves the Government's borrowing proclivities by making debt service cheap, and that's much more important than trying to move a few of Grandma's dollars into equities, although that may be a side effect.
So far, the Fed's activities, starting with TARP and followed with ZIRP, have had the desired effect. Financial collapse and unbounded abject fear was curtailed with TARP. ZIRP has gradually restored balance sheets and started incipient activity in the private sector, as seen by corporate results.
Now, comes the key moment in the high-wire act. The Fed must wind down infusion of new reserves and allow rates to rise, and it must hope that growing private sector activity will remain on a positive trajectory. Rising rates should provide new incentive for banks to make private-sector loans, rather than parking money in DC. At the same time, the Fed must observe keenly the size and use of all those additional reserves it created, so that inflation doesn't run out of control, as too much currency meets a heating-up economy.
Aside from all that simple stuff, everything is just a piece of cake. I think that as risks go, the risk of inflation outweighs that of a stalled economy.
The ruling Fianna Fail party is annihilated, losing about 75% of its seats in the Irish election. PM to be, Enda Kenny calls it a “democratic revolution ... (the voters) wreaked vengeance on those who let them down.” Next stop: bailout renegotiation. An EU bureaucrat warns, "Ireland's only role in this now is to implement the (bailout) ... Irish voters are not a party in this process." [View news story]
Left:
Just one observation:
Argentina has always been buried under an persisting addiction to Peronist (socialist) giveaways, which they, like Iceland, tried to finance in U.S. dollars. I can tell you from personal experience, as an international businessman with friends in Argentina, that various currency collapses there didn't help anybody with money. Of course, if you didn't have any, it didn't make much difference.
The Argentine experience does, however, carry stark warnings for the ever-pandering growth of Government-employee and union entitlements.
Middle East Meltdown Could Mean Oil at $300 a Barrel, Pump Prices of $9.57 a Gallon [View article]
Every time there's a hiccup anywhere in the world that lasts longer than it takes to type an article, we get an immediate blizzard of scare pieces, agitating the over-emotional into action, either dumping this or buying that, almost assuredly to no positive monetary outcome.
"No one in (China's) central government wants to end the party," says Northwesten Prof. Victor Shih, thus leaving local officials free to pursue their own highly ambitious growth objectives. One example: the building of the world's largest financial center in the city of Tianjin. [View news story]
Hudson City Bancorp: Great Buying Opportunity or Bear Trap? [View article]
Many folks seem attracted to HCBK because of its yield, but they have a constrained strategy, as has become apparent. Now, with possible regulatory issues forcing their hand on capital ratios, it's not indefensible to take a break, even if temporarily.
Another bank, I'd offer for consideration, which I believe has tremendous growth prospects, an aggressive strategy and a nice 5+% dividend, is Santander (STD). All the fretting about Europe, and Spain, has held its price below value, although over 70% of STD's business is elsewhere. My guess is that STD will outperform HCBK rather handily, over time.
The relatively well-behaved price of rice is preventing a 2008 style food crisis says the OECD. A staple for 1/2 of the world, rice has increased by just 3.4% Y/Y, barely a blip when measured against the other grains. [View news story]
Doug Kass issues a mea culpa for being "far too cautious and dogmatic" in his bearishness, and the recovery in corporate profits "has been so strong as to offset some of my concerns." He says he's not bullish, and some of the economic strength is based on "recession fatigue." Nevertheless, "conditions are not as bad as I had once feared." [View news story]
John Hussman: Rich Valuations and Poor Market Returns [View article]
Yes, I'll give you some advice. Don't get spooked by articles.
If you're risk averse (which you seem to be), you're making a curious pick in speculating on commodities. You're much more at risk playing highly-volatile commodities, which can trade limit-up or down in a day, for multiple days, than holding conventional stocks.
You're much better off finding specific "value" issues which you judge from your own research to be undervalued versus their norms and which pay attractive dividends. These types of issues will likely exhibit less volatility, will tend to gradually outperform "high flyers" and will pay you (dividends) to hold them, so you don't have to be instantly right about price direction.
Close to $100B of municipal bond defaults may occur over the next five years, Nouriel Roubini's consulting firm says - significantly more than in recent history, but not as dire as Meredith Whitney's apocalyptic prediction. "Defaults will continue to be isolated events," the report says, affecting mostly special projects and revenue generating entities that aren't considered viable. [View news story]
This is hardly worth hyperventilating over, if it even happens.
Last night's winner of the Oscar for Best Documentary was Charles Ferguson's Inside Job. His acceptance speech: "Three years after our horrific financial crisis caused by financial fraud, not a single financial executive has gone to jail, and that's wrong." But are the film's depictions of the causes right? [View news story]
Last night's winner of the Oscar for Best Documentary was Charles Ferguson's Inside Job. His acceptance speech: "Three years after our horrific financial crisis caused by financial fraud, not a single financial executive has gone to jail, and that's wrong." But are the film's depictions of the causes right? [View news story]
Don't kid yourself; of course gasoline prices could tip Americans back into recession - and considering the current fragility, maybe at lower price points than before, like $3.50/gallon. Old givens (such as: Saudi Arabia's regime will remain intact) are facing new questions. [View news story]
How CA may be doing has something to do with gasoline prices? How about unbridled government spending and entitlements?
And, guess what, CA's government issues aren't going to cause a national recession, either, but you can always hope.
Why Germany's Economic Fortress Could Come Toppling Down [View article]
That just demonstrates how well those "self-esteem" classes are working, even if they can't add and subtract.
Why Germany's Economic Fortress Could Come Toppling Down [View article]
Last time I looked, reserves created within banks, diverted back to Treasury notes and spent by the Government would qualify as "cash in the hands of the non-bank public."
Why Germany's Economic Fortress Could Come Toppling Down [View article]
Banks aren't lending, not because they don't believe in the recovery and think drastic times are ahead. They are behaving very rationally, deciding that the riskless lending to Government produces a higher risk-adjusted return than lending to business at the current artificially-depressed rates.
Allow rates to rise a bit, and we'll see money flow to the private sector. Government largesse, also, needs to be constrained to allow this to happen.
Why Germany's Economic Fortress Could Come Toppling Down [View article]
First, read this description of Fed activities and responsibilities (courtesy Wikipedia):
"In its role as the central bank of the United States, the Fed serves as a banker's bank and as the government's bank. As the banker's bank, it helps to assure the safety and efficiency of the payments system. As the government's bank, or fiscal agent, the Fed processes a variety of financial transactions involving trillions of dollars. Just as an individual might keep an account at a bank, the U.S. Treasury keeps a checking account with the Federal Reserve, through which incoming federal tax deposits and outgoing government payments are handled. As part of this service relationship, the Fed sells and redeems U.S. government securities such as savings bonds and Treasury bills, notes and bonds. It also issues the nation's coin and paper currency. The U.S. Treasury, through its Bureau of the Mint and Bureau of Engraving and Printing, actually produces the nation's cash supply and, in effect, sells the paper currency to the Federal Reserve Banks at manufacturing cost, and the coins at face value. The Federal Reserve Banks then distribute it to other financial institutions in various ways."
The Fed does and is, presently doing, far more than "redistributing" existing assets. They are in fact providing the banks with new dollars --that didn't exist anywhere, previously-- and they are facilitating the sale of new Treasury notes to absorb those very same dollars, so the Federal Government, in its own wisdom, can use/spend those dollars for its own purposes.
The maintenance of ultra-low rates serves the Government's borrowing proclivities by making debt service cheap, and that's much more important than trying to move a few of Grandma's dollars into equities, although that may be a side effect.
So far, the Fed's activities, starting with TARP and followed with ZIRP, have had the desired effect. Financial collapse and unbounded abject fear was curtailed with TARP. ZIRP has gradually restored balance sheets and started incipient activity in the private sector, as seen by corporate results.
Now, comes the key moment in the high-wire act. The Fed must wind down infusion of new reserves and allow rates to rise, and it must hope that growing private sector activity will remain on a positive trajectory. Rising rates should provide new incentive for banks to make private-sector loans, rather than parking money in DC. At the same time, the Fed must observe keenly the size and use of all those additional reserves it created, so that inflation doesn't run out of control, as too much currency meets a heating-up economy.
Aside from all that simple stuff, everything is just a piece of cake. I think that as risks go, the risk of inflation outweighs that of a stalled economy.
The ruling Fianna Fail party is annihilated, losing about 75% of its seats in the Irish election. PM to be, Enda Kenny calls it a “democratic revolution ... (the voters) wreaked vengeance on those who let them down.” Next stop: bailout renegotiation. An EU bureaucrat warns, "Ireland's only role in this now is to implement the (bailout) ... Irish voters are not a party in this process." [View news story]
Just one observation:
Argentina has always been buried under an persisting addiction to Peronist (socialist) giveaways, which they, like Iceland, tried to finance in U.S. dollars. I can tell you from personal experience, as an international businessman with friends in Argentina, that various currency collapses there didn't help anybody with money. Of course, if you didn't have any, it didn't make much difference.
The Argentine experience does, however, carry stark warnings for the ever-pandering growth of Government-employee and union entitlements.