Seeking Alpha

Humble Eagles

Humble Eagles
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Humble Eagles' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Greece Referendum: No - 61.1%. Yes - 38.9% [View news story]
    Harm, I am inclined to agree with you. Assuming Greece is soon to be out of the Euro, as one might suspect from the vote, wouldn't that actually make the Euro stronger? They have to deal with the losses, but the Euro minus Greece is a stronger currency. If Spain leaves, they are even stronger. I'm afraid we have the people of Greece in one corner, the rest of Europe in another corner, and the leaders of Greece in another corner. I fear the leaders of Greece are interested mainly in publicity for themselves, and that is what this sideshow has been about. They are absolutely loving the attention they are getting. I don't think the European leadership is going to keep playing their straight man in this comedy/tragedy much longer. Either they get a deal soon or Greece is printing Drachmas again.
    Jul 5, 2015. 06:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Airlines' talk of "discipline" may have led to antitrust probe, experts say [View news story]
    Discipline is a no-no? This is getting funny. The words, "disciplined growth," from a group that just went through billions in losses, bankruptcies, the destruction of 20 years of employee wage growth, the destruction of employee benefits and pensions--and much of it because of *undisciplined* growth--well, it all begs the question: do the Democrats want the airlines to fail?
    Jul 2, 2015. 06:59 PM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DOJ Causes Temporary Turbulence For American Airlines [View article]
    Hamster, the price action is now clear in the rearview mirror. A lot of people received inside information that the DOJ had put the airlines on their target list. Unfortunately, I have been adding shares while the info was slipped to some big traders. If I were investigating, I would look at shorts and sales in the last few weeks and then I would look for connections to some of the key Congressional offices. Staffers are famous for leaks, and this time it cost Americans like me billions collectively, and I'm sure billions were made by the recipients of the information via short positions. To me, this is much worse and more plausible than any supposed collusion on the airlines part. I would also look at the DOJ, but surely they would be smart enough to realize they couldn't leak the attack news ahead of time. As noted above, what is funny is that Apple made over 31 billion dollars in the last two quarters--that is probably more than every airline has made collectively in the last 30-40 years. They are the only major cellphone company in N. America and pretty much a monopoly. But, they hire people right out of Obama's administration and they have some big Democrats on their board, so that is where I'm going--invest with the Democrats. They have the government on their side.
    Jul 2, 2015. 05:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Airline stocks fall; DOJ probing price collusion [View news story]
    Great points, Mike. This is ridiculous beyond belief. I went over to Priceline and typed in ATL-LAX one month out. You can fly from Atlanta to Los Angeles for less than $300 round trip ! Not only is that a lot cheaper than previous decades, that is cheaper than you could drive that trip. I think this is typical. Yet, other industries are ripping customers with prices that are almost unbelievable--like cable, cellphones (service providers and Apple), drug companies, and the list goes on and on and on.
    Jul 2, 2015. 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Airline stocks fall; DOJ probing price collusion [View news story]
    Fortunately for the airlines, they have the data on their side. Much lower real fares now than preceding decades; real fares have dropped in the last year, not increased. The mention of a 1% increase in capacity by one medium sized airline put the industry into a huge correction. If they were colluding, this wouldn't happen. This just looks like a witch hunt to me.
    Jul 1, 2015. 05:17 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Airline stocks fall; DOJ probing price collusion [View news story]
    I thought the same thing, seeker. Apple made 31 billion dollars in just the last two quarters--more than all of the airlines together. They charge a fortune for their electronics--obscene markups like you mentioned, and they are the *only* major cellphone maker in N. America. The big difference is that Apple has hired people right out of the administration, have big Democrats on their board, and they are very supportive of the Democrats and their causes. Crony capitalism, as somebody mentioned above? It could be time to cut our losses and try to find industries that aren't in the administration's crosshairs. I just wish they would publicly announce exactly who is on their hit list, so we could avoid them.
    Jul 1, 2015. 04:53 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Airline stocks fall; DOJ probing price collusion [View news story]
    rik, I agree! The price action on the airlines has been bizarre lately. I have been adding as they dropped, but it is as if somebody (or a lot of somebodies) knew the Justice Department was going to pull this trick. I really hope the SEC investigates recent sales and shorts of airlines, and if they found out the Justice Department was going to do the take down on the industry ahead of time. The sad thing is that the employees will be hurt worst of all. Justice attacks airlines; airlines forced to cut fares; profits dry up; airline employee benefits and pay take the hit; airline executives still fine. Oh, and shareholders flee, but wait, that has already happened ahead of time. Only the innocent and honest shareholders get screwed.
    Jul 1, 2015. 04:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Airline stocks fall; DOJ probing price collusion [View news story]
    I agree, Bgold, but...this Justice Department, more than any I can remember, just doesn't do things the right way. Here is the quote from the story:
    >>Justice Department spokesperson Emily Pierce confirmed the probe, saying investigators are looking into “possible unlawful coordination by some airlines,” but would not confirm which carriers.<<
    Assuming the story is correct, this is just wrong. American citizens have billions of dollars invested in these companies, and they drop this bomb on the stock market, taking down every airline. They literally cost innocent people billions in losses today by throwing around their rumors and not specifying who and what the extent of the issues are. They should know better than this and they are either clueless or don't care about the damage they do. There doesn't seem to be any concern for the damage they have caused innocent airlines and investors. If this was just a dumb mistake on their part that would be one thing, but they did the exact same thing to the banks and others. This appears to be their playbook when they want to attack somebody. I just don't think it is appropriate for the Justice Department to act that way. It reminds me of the IRS probes into the political enemies of the administration. The people of the United States deserve better!
    Jul 1, 2015. 03:57 PM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chambers Street Properties and Gramercy Property to merge [View news story]
    That pretty much sums it up, phig! We are looking to sell ourselves...and we will do so at a discount to current prices!?!?
    Jul 1, 2015. 08:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Airlines: Preparing For A Descent? [View article]
    I'm trying to be gracious, but this is just horrible logic, and the perfect example of why the herd usually underperforms. Airlines are, perhaps, the most hated investment class ever, and their fundamentals have never been better! AAL could make more than UPS and FDX combined this year (two solid transpos), yet the market cap is about 1/5th of these two shippers! Remember, it isn't just mom and pop investors, but also professionals who can't beat indexes. The airlines have already dropped; now is the time to buy, not sell imo. The fundamentals are fantastic. AAL "might" turn a profit this year? AAL will likely make so much money in this quarter alone that the PE for *just this quarter's* earnings is cheaper than the major indexes for the *whole year*. Of course, there are risks, like terrorist attacks and pandemics, but even if oil goes back to $100 a barrel and we get a slowing in the economy, the legacy carriers are still undervalued currently imo.
    Jul 1, 2015. 05:59 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Airlines Investors Are Ignoring Major Risks To The Company [View article]
    Let's add historically low interest rates as another huge positive. The legacy carriers, and particularly AAL, are updating their fleets and financing at low rates. Planes can last 20-30 years in some cases, and AAL's fleet is now very new and efficient.
    Jun 23, 2015. 10:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Airlines: Patience Is A Virtue [View article]
    Harm, a lot of great points in the article, and I think good balance, too. My one big point would be that the PE is backward looking, and since that was when oil was at a much higher price, it could be very deceiving to look at backward numbers here. AAL was using roughly 360 million gallons a month last year, so a $1 drop in fuel prices equates to over $4 billion a year! Nobody is even considering that AAL (and the other majors) had profitable models at $100 oil because of the restructuring that you detail above. So, the $4 billion is extra cash. Fracking, cost restructuring, historically low rates, and a modest recovery make airlines a buy imo. They may be great investments for the next five years. Your list of risks is certainly valid, but I think Mr. Market is discounting the *possibility* of these risks, and ignoring the *reality* of lower oil, lower rates, higher load factors, and limited capacity.
    Jun 23, 2015. 08:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Automotive Systems: Free Cash Flow, Growth, And No Debt [View article]
    I like this company, too. Just like you, I appreciate their global focus and their R&D. Having big auto companies as customers also validates their legitimacy as a business. My one concern, is financial management. I hope they can manage their finances well and reward their shareholders rather than fleecing them. I own the stock, too.
    Jun 23, 2015. 07:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REITs That Pay Monthly [View article]
    Brad, my kind of timing on the secondary! Question: do you think the extra shares put the divvy at greater risk? That puts the payout at close to 100%, doesn't it? Or, do you think they will quickly use the funds to increase the FFO commensurately. Thx.
    Jun 23, 2015. 07:22 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Airlines Investors Are Ignoring Major Risks To The Company [View article]
    tut, well said. If AAL was selling for the same forward PE as the S&P 500, I would agree with his thesis, but it isn't anywhere close. If AAL had the same forward PE as the S&P500, it would be ~155. That is not a typo. 155 is what AAL would be selling for today with comparable valuations to other companies. That is where the author fails his readers. This piece is essentially like running into a theater, talking about how dangerous theaters are during fires, and then yelling fire when there is no fire. In fact, the theater is doing great and has exits built to code and there is a fire truck sitting in the parking lot at the moment. AAL is, imo, a screaming buy. This piece is just one more bit of evidence that airlines are among the most hated investments in the history of the stock market. AAL is selling at almost a 75% discount to the S&P 500. That is a remarkable discount. Even if profits drop 75%, it isn't overvalued relative to other companies.
    Jun 23, 2015. 07:09 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment