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  • Which Airlines Are Flying Highest After Earnings? [View article]
    I tried Spirit again recently because they offered a non-stop where I needed to go. Sardine city, and they charge for everything imaginable and then some. They charge $10 per leg to check you in if you forget or can't print your boarding pass at home! The flight attendants give the brief and run through the cabin offering to use your credit card to buy a small styrofoam cup of coffee for $2, so nobody buys much of anything and they don't do much. The only service is self-service pretty much. One lady got challenged on her bag that was just barely too big. They made her go to the ATM and pay them $100 in cash. The bag is about $25 ahead of time. I felt like it was a shakedown. I don't see too big of a threat. JBLU has much better service. The legacy carriers are cash cows and a huge buy because they are so undervalued. If AAL was selling for $90, I would be lukewarm on it.
    Jul 31, 2015. 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Airlines Are Flying Highest After Earnings? [View article]
    I like all of the airlines pretty much, but AAL is my favorite. Just a quick glance, but I'm seeing ~17.1B in LT debt, and I'm seeing a pretty stable interest amount in the low 200 millions per quarter. If they refinance at lower rates the interest payment stays very manageable, despite a small increase in debt. AAL has largely updated their fleet, so the newer airplanes, lower fuel burn, better maintenance costs, and other factors give them an advantage over many of the other carriers. They will also have a large depreciation amount, along with less lease payments. Financing airplanes is the smart thing to do right now imo. If they had more debt and they had the older airplanes, then it might be a bigger concern. Less than a billion a year in interest on a company that should earn over 6Bn this year is reasonable. Also, a lot of the PRASM drop is currency. When you consider that the market cap is less than 30 billion, 4 billion in share repurchases is quite significant. They also have close to 10Bn in cash and STI, so they have good liquidity. This is an oil well in reverse--printing money from the low fuel prices. And, best of all, Mr. Market hates the company and is giving shares away. Time to accumulate.
    Jul 31, 2015. 11:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whitestone REIT Is Now Yielding 8.9% [View article]
    --"warned up to it" pretty funny slip there...
    Jul 31, 2015. 09:15 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft, Capitulation And The End Of Windows Everywhere [View article]
    Not only that, but Intel and Microsoft could awaken from their slumber and realize that they could cooperate in mobile much like they have in PCs in the past. Why they think they can fight with each other and still compete with Apple is mind boggling. There is tremendous opportunity if they just start defending the ecosystem with intelligent moves, instead of self destructive missteps. I'm not ready to pronounce Windows dead, but if Wintel doesn't wake up, they are going to become irrelevant.
    Jul 30, 2015. 10:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties: Shooting For A 7% Dividend Yield? [View article]
    Not only is a conservative payout likely due to the reasons Brad listed, but let's not forget that mgmt will want to show progress in the future. The easiest way to do that is to set the dividend very low and raise it consistently. I would guess .12, but anything is possible from .08 to .18 or so.
    Jul 29, 2015. 09:33 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Making An iPhone Mistake? [View article]
    No, they still produce what they need.
    Jul 28, 2015. 06:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Making An iPhone Mistake? [View article]
    5S, 16GB, free...that is the rumor, and I think they will sell a bunch. The only thing that would be better is if they could put Apple pay into the 5S chipset. Hard to imagine a better 4 inch phone anywhere, and certainly perfect for the the 4 inch phone lovers. But, it is a great point that some people prefer small phones and not having high end models available would be a big mistake, especially considering that just 12 months ago, small phones were the only option and Apple was arguing that is what most everybody wanted because larger phones don't fit your hand and can't be used by the general populace.
    Jul 28, 2015. 04:46 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Select Income REIT Q2 results [View news story]
    You have to ask why a company is using shares as payment after the shares have dropped 40%. Is that smart? It just seems to me that some REITS and others, particularly externally managed ones, will continue to do dilutive deals until there is nothing left--except the management fees. MS just downgraded last week, so they are seeing something they don't like. I have taken a huge loss on my small position, so I'm one shareholder who isn't happy with management.
    Jul 28, 2015. 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: Not A Blow-Out, But Good Enough [View article]
    If nobody expects Apple to do it again, then if they do it will be a strong upward surprise. I think they will. They are quite good at phones and such, and phones really are up there with toilet paper and soap--people feel like they have to have a phone. They said only 27% of the installed base has upgraded, so there is massive potential.
    Jul 23, 2015. 11:43 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: Not A Blow-Out, But Good Enough [View article]
    We were fed a "law of large numbers" column a week a couple of years back when Apple had about $156Bn in sales. They should do over $230Bn this year! Supposedly, about 75% of the installed iPhone base doesn't have the latest gen phones. I think the 16GB 5S will sell heavily this year, assuming the rumors are true. The real law of large numbers is the multitude that already own an iPhone, and this commodity is a repeat sale business where Apple makes a fortune.
    Jul 23, 2015. 11:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: Not A Blow-Out, But Good Enough [View article]
    Actually, 32% rev growth and 45% profit growth are blowouts in any business, no matter what anybody predicted or expected. The growth is almost dangerously high. People forget that Apple *finally* offered big screens, but they also added a second, complementary, but state of the art phone. This year should see two more state of the arts, giving them four phones within 12 months of the rollout, but they are rumored to be upping the 5S minimum and free phone to 16GB. I expect this year will be another record breaking year for phones. That they have cannibalized some iPad mini sales is very, very good. The 6S, which takes some mini sales away, sells for about $500 more and has a much higher margin...all good. Apple would be valued at over $191 this morning with the exact same forward PE as the NSDQ 100, and they have *over 200 billion* in cash. So, even though Apple is growing much faster than most of the NSDQ 100, it has a higher dividend, and much more cash, its earnings are valued at about 66% of the index earnings.
    Jul 23, 2015. 10:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: 4 Was Not The Magic Number [View article]
    Great points, Sog. Plus, the PE is in the 13s for this year's estimate, and they have over 200Bn in cash laying around.
    Jul 22, 2015. 01:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: 4 Was Not The Magic Number [View article]
    They grew revs >30% YOY and AAPL is selling for about 10X this year's earnings less net cash. I wouldn't worry about the 5 number.
    Jul 22, 2015. 11:30 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: Not A Blow-Out, But Good Enough [View article]
    Danny, I would say we need to be conservative, so $160. 15 X next year's earnings and half credit for the cash. Much will depend on the new products and the perception of them, but Apple's wheelhouse is electronics design--so that is probably OK. The big risk is probably macro, but if Apple ever decided to swing and miss on a new generation, that could be devastating. The fact that only 27% of the installed iPhone base has upgraded to the 6/6S is also a very strong positive. We are still using the 5, and I know several 4S users to this day!
    Jul 22, 2015. 10:49 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: Not A Blow-Out, But Good Enough [View article]
    In line takes a lot of dreaming for me, tuna: 32% rev growth YOY and 45% EPS growth, AAPL selling for about 10 times this year's earnings less net cash. AAPL is back to half the price of the NSDQ 100! The funny part is comparing NFLX, GOOG, and AMZN reactions. But, everybody owns AAPL and there is nowhere to go but down?!? Please. As I pointed out when Maestri got back into the sandbagging routine, traders and analysts are like drug addicts, they will punish you for not giving them more of their drug--huge blowouts. That happened yesterday, as Apple is growing faster than almost every company and yet apparently they wanted 100% growth in earnings YOY! The important point for AAPL traders and investors is that this is the time to buy. July was the great time of the cycle, so barring macro disaster Mr. Market is giving away shares for the big upgrade cycle that starts in 8 weeks or so. Prices will lead that by a few weeks. GLTA.
    Jul 22, 2015. 10:39 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment