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  • Will American Airlines Return To Its 52-Week Highs Soon? [View article]
    AAL uses about ~358 million gallons of jet fuel per month. With gas down well over a dollar a gallon from last year at this time, they are like an oil well in reverse--every cheap gallon brings in massive profits to the bottom line. They were making a lot of money at $100 oil and the stock price was higher! IMO, AAL is one of the most mispriced stocks I have ever seen. AAL is printing money right now, and I don't see anything that is likely to change that in the near future.
    Aug 27, 2015. 07:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will American Airlines Return To Its 52-Week Highs Soon? [View article]
    You won't find a bigger AAL bull than me, but I tried to book a ticket online recently and found the experience absolutely horrible. Somewhere between buying a new car from a sleazy dealership and dealing with government run services. What didn't I like? Well, they price the round trip legs separately, so you have to go through a lot of screens to figure out the actual price. The lower prices were usually at really weird times on the return trip, so they ding you there and it smells a little bit like bait and switch. So, when you finally pay up and get a decent pair of round trips, you are presented with the option of buying one bag and getting boarding priority for $58 per ticket (you can add more bells and whistles for more $$ and that is per round trip leg). After all of the shopping and clicking, and typing info in, I then realized I still had to pay more if I wanted a seat by my wife--every stinking leg of the trip! The extra charge ran as high as $40 a seat per leg. It wound up adding several hundred dollars to two $400 fares! So, the extra bag and boarding priority ($58) are per round trip leg, while the seats are for every single leg. Very confusing; very irritating; poorly designed; I am afraid AAL hired Spirit's programmer! I avoid Spirit because the service is so bad. It is a sad day for the legacy carriers when the cheap, no service, no frills, discount carrier--Southwest--ac... becomes the premium carrier, and not because their level service has gotten better, but because the legacies have gotten so bad. AAL needs to totally overhaul their web reservation system. It needs to be transparent and simple, as opposed to opaque, complex, and sleazy. Parker needs to ask himself if he wants to be the predictable and premium player American has always been, or whether he really wants to morph into Spirit on a grandiose scale. I will sell my stock and find another carrier if the answer is the latter.
    Aug 27, 2015. 07:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Safe? [View article]
    We got down to just under a 15% correction yesterday (from S&P highs), exactly what many were hoping for to add positions. The problem is that it was so violent and fast many investors missed it. We are almost back to the beginning of the year with the pop this AM. Corrections can be hard to take advantage of, and the points Eric makes on ETFs show just how great the opportunity was yesterday--far beyond the indices. GLTA.
    Aug 25, 2015. 09:06 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: When There Is Blood In The Streets, Will You Become A Vampire? [View article]
    RS, this was a good article, but the timing of it, along with the comments section, ended up being among the best I have ever seen on SA! One can read through the comments, especially with the backdrop of what was happening in the market when they were made, and learn a tremendous amount about investor psychology. We have B&H people, timers, BTD'ers, white-knucklers, and even a few philosophers here. Some are absolutely certain they know the future, and some are certain they don't! Believe it or not, I was ~26% cash going into yesterday, ready and waiting, but I got sidetracked in the best part of the panic looking at options and volatility (both were almost untradeable because of messed up pricing/ridiculous premiums), and I only bought ~8% worth when I saw the real bargains. What I got I am very happy with owning long term. Looks like we might get a short squeeze this AM, so I will likely be watching mostly. I might even sell a few calls if the rally gets silly. GLTA.
    Aug 25, 2015. 07:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: When There Is Blood In The Streets, Will You Become A Vampire? [View article]
    I have a lot of cash, too, and I added some health care today, including JNJ and several other solid HC names. I was lacking in that department, except for some medical REITs. I wouldn't take the comments personally, Robert. Most smart investors know how to read contrary opinions, and they value them. There are some folks who just want to win arguments here, and I mostly pass over their comments. I try to listen to both sides of debates, though. I still have a lot of cash so I can add to those HC positions. I will likely regret not being more aggressive if it bounces right back. For the younger readers, IMHO, today is the kind of day that should stimulate your buying juices. Remember how you felt. Kind of like a big Labor Day sale at the mall. Learning to recognize buy signals isn't as easy as it seems; it isn't pleasant till it bounces back, which sometimes takes years! Sell when things are going great. GLTA.
    Aug 21, 2015. 08:03 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil: Where Is The Bottom? [View article]
    Good advice...but, anytime the price of oil goes back up the spigot can open back up. $20-$45 may be temporary, but $50-$75 may have tremendous endurance.
    Aug 20, 2015. 01:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Readies To Take Out $40 [View article]
    One of the problems is that the price of gas is still pretty high at the pump, maybe like 60/bbl oil (guessing). If gas prices drop down significantly, as they should soon, demand should pick up, I would think. It's anybody guess where oil bounces, but usually Mr. Market overshoots. I wouldn't be surprised if we see the $20s.
    Aug 20, 2015. 07:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2015 Exposes Shaky MLP Fundamentals [View article]
    I have read at least one of those in the past, Michael, but it isn't just GS here. There is a great reason most mutual/hedge fund mgrs can't outperform the S&P 500. It isn't because they're stupid. These folks are some of the smartest money can buy, with advanced degrees from the finest schools. The problem is that predicting the future is a tough business. The market discounts ahead of time, as I said above. Here is an SA editors report that echoes calls made by Barrons and BAML on the subject:
    It can certainly go lower, but when "everybody" sells something it is usually time to start buying. GLTA.
    Aug 19, 2015. 04:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Barron's Catching A Falling Knife? [View article]
    It is always tough to go against the herd!
    Aug 18, 2015. 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Bluerock Residential's 9.5% Dividend Be Trusted? [View article]
    Great synopsis, Brad. I like that they at least want to internalize as soon as it makes sense, and I also like that their apartments appear to be very high quality. The dividend looks a bit shaky to me, but we will see. I hope you will produce that column on internal vs. external mgmt some time soon! I would love to see a comparison of appreciation over a longer period. My theory (from brief and back-of-the-envelope math) is that externally managed REITs are discounted deeply due to lower long term capital appreciation (the value and cash are being drained off to the external manager). As a consequence, investors require a much higher dividend from an externally managed REIT to have a chance at growth. The unaware investor comes in and sees the higher yield and doesn't understand that the price might appreciate 3-7% less per year than the internally managed REIT. Looking at the ten year chart on VTR or O versus some of the externals is enlightening. I would love to see that as the first bullet in your articles' analysis section--internal or external in a graphic and bold frame. It is one of the most important factors and most often overlooked.
    Aug 18, 2015. 08:54 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Producing Industry: When Will It Be Safe To Invest Again? [View article]
    One thing that might be hurting oil is retail prices. The price of gas is still up like oil was ~$60-$70bbl. If gas prices had dropped, demand would likely have increased, especially during the summer driving months. I wonder who is capturing the windfall since it isn't going to consumers?
    Aug 18, 2015. 04:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What To Consider Before Selling Apple [View article]
    Remember, 1Q sales are in the 4th CQ! The 90-100 million includes the rollout quarter--the one we are in now. Also, I would have to see the note, but Apple didn't sell close 74.5 million iP6/plus last 1Q! That was *total* iPhone sales. If they sell 70 million 6S/plus, they could sell 80-90 million phones in 1Q. Last year's growth was so large a number, that any decent growth will produce a blowout quarter on earnings.
    Aug 17, 2015. 02:22 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What To Consider Before Selling Apple [View article]
    Also, they think that every year, especially those bearing "S"!
    Aug 17, 2015. 01:37 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Producing Industry: When Will It Be Safe To Invest Again? [View article]
    Benni, really! You don't see a difference between 733Bn in the bank with little debt and Puerto Rico?
    Aug 14, 2015. 08:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Producing Industry: When Will It Be Safe To Invest Again? [View article]
    benni, the Saudis have almost three quarters of a trillion to tap and they have a budget deficit of less than 50Bn due to the drop. I don't think they will have much trouble paying back a little bit of interest!
    Aug 14, 2015. 06:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment