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  • Apple Pay an "iPod moment" [View news story]
    They did 100% more than '12 with a similar footprint, so 100% more on first weekend would be 10MM, and that is my guess. Remember, last year included China and it also had significant inventory in the sell through, maybe 2-3MM. They are short on everything this year, so the the numbers will all be hard sales. 10 would be roughly a 50% YOY increase assuming those numbers. That is ~50% X China this year. 10MM would be a huge homerun.
    Sep 15 06:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Pay an "iPod moment" [View news story]
    Exactly, JW! ASPs are heading much higher. Let's not forget that some people will buy the 128Gb simply because it is available. The mid tier will sellout quicker than the past and that will actually increase the 128 sales this year.
    Sep 15 03:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Way Now Open To $120 [View article]
    Yep, a lot of traders out there are thinking and gambling 2012 will repeat itself on Apple. First 24 hour orders should give them the big clue to cover: phones are $100+ more expensive and orders are up 100% over 2012. Not a good short story. Maybe a good horror story.
    Sep 15 12:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Way Now Open To $120 [View article]
    Just looking at that picture, I have to wonder if they are telling the truth. NC would rarely have a season where there is nothing green growing. Surely, Apple wouldn't have used environment damaging herbicides to kill the growth? Maybe it really isn't NC? Any thoughts?
    Sep 15 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Way Now Open To $120 [View article]
    Great call imho! Let me add: last year's two phones were new at $99 and $199 on contract. This year's models are up $100 *each* at $199 and $299. Plus, the new memory tier pricing will increase prices, too. The $299 model is already sold out half way to T'giving. Sales are up ~100% over the iP5 at 4MM, so they are selling very well. Last year's phone ASP in the holiday qtr was ~$646. I think we can be pretty certain that this year's holiday ASP is going north of $700 as a result of the aforementioned dynamics. So, even if we discounted the 100% jump from the iP5, the holiday sales of which were 47.8MM, and simulated sales growth with a 20% jump, multiplying by a $700 ASP is going to create a huge quarter. Increased ASP is the elephant in the iPhone room this year imho! Finally, Eddy Cue said this year's pipeline was the best he had seen at Apple. We have yet to see that. I think we have more to follow. GLTA.
    Sep 15 11:20 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch: 3 Things You May Want To Know [View article]
    Randal, you need to check your math. The initial demand numbers are in and sales are booming around the world. The iP6+ costs $100 more. Consumers have vacuumed them off the virtual shelves and Apple is well into next quarter on delivery dates. People are paying up, period. It isn't in question anymore. Both of the phones have added a new price point that will also increase ASPs. 32Gb is gone, and it has been replaced by 64Gb. So, it is now only $100 to step from a paltry 16Gb to a more adequate 64Gb. More consumers will do so. The BOM increase is a legitimate question, but I suspect it will be a net win for Apple. I think Apple will get back north of 40% on GMs, and possibly back to the 4S records. Initial phone sales are up ~100% over the iP5, which had a similar footprint. Apple sold 47.8MM Ip5 models in the holiday quarter.
    Sep 15 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Announces Record Pre-orders for iPhone 6 & iPhone 6 Plus Top Four Million in First 24 Hours [View article]
    Also, for those wondering, Apple sold 47.8MM phones in the holiday quarter for the iPhone 5. There was a near constant shortage for the quarter, and Apple has added over a billion new customers via carrier agreements. Analyst estimates are for around 10% growth this year (overall). BTW, I think they will have close to 10% revenue growth with flat phone sales because ASPs are going to be dramatically higher on the iPhone 6/6+! Key takeaway: analyst estimates for next qtr/year likely heading much higher for Apple.
    Sep 15 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Pay an "iPod moment" [View news story]
    SoldH, I agree. People are missing the importance of Pay. I think it could prove to be Apple's biggest announcement ever, revolutionizing how people pay for things! Focusing on the revenue is a giant mistake--just like focusing on TWTRs or FBs revenue was (in the early going). Apple is guaranteeing security and nobody else can or will do that for .0015. They are actually saving money by inventing a better mousetrap (using the fingerprint capability and hardware from the phones). The net result is a big win for the Apple ecosystem. The reason Google can't do this is that Google won't guarantee the security of the payments; they would be crazy to do it. They may scramble to encourage fingerprint support, but it will take time. Most importantly, Google doesn't make the phones, so they probably aren't going to guarantee a payment from a phone maker for a .0015 cut. I don't think Google trusts the security of Android phones as much as Apple trusts their phone security.
    Sep 15 09:08 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Pay an "iPod moment" [View news story]
    I'm sure many are wondering: 4+MM is up ~100% from the iP5 rollout, which had a similar footprint. The key point, which has yet to be addressed in my view, is the very large increase in ASP on the new phones. Not only is volume up 100% from the 5, the ASP is going to be up dramatically, too. Estimates heading much higher imho. GLTA.
    Sep 15 08:45 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Announces Record Pre-orders for iPhone 6 & iPhone 6 Plus Top Four Million in First 24 Hours [View article]
    Four+ million in the first 24 hours--without China! That is up ~100% from the iPhone 5, which had a similar footprint!
    Sep 15 08:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch: 3 Things You May Want To Know [View article]
    I agree he handled this in a very level-headed manner. The only point I would make is that a lot of people are missing the fashion/fad aspect of the watch. The interchangeable band is brilliant and the watch will be a fashion statement--particularly in gold. $2000 would give a woman a beautiful gold watch with several nice color changes. Apple will keep working on function, making it better. I don't want one, but I won't underestimate the potential out there. And it is all accretive! All the watch talk is eclipsing the big announcements: Pay and the two new phones. The iP6+ is going to cause a large increase in margins and ASPs. The fact that they are sold out well into next quarter is extremely bullish for AAPL--estimates heading higher soon!
    Sep 15 08:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Market Provides Some Early Fall Color For REIT Investors [View article]
    Appreciate your taking the time to voice your opinion and reasoning, Brad. I enjoy the comments as much as the columns.
    Sep 13 09:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Pay will contribute little to profit, Nomura analyst says [View news story]
    The tiny cut for Apple is why most everyone is jumping on the wagon! Apple has extreme confidence in the security of the technology and they solve a huge problem for the issuers and CC companies--fraud. The benefit is likely cheaper than the cost, and that, coupled with ease of use for consumers and merchants, is going to change the way we pay for things imho. But, just as people didn't see the value in giving away free social netspace (FB, TWTR), or free storage space, or free search, the value to Apple is getting new blood to stay with their ecosystem. The tiny cut also makes it very difficult for others to enter the fray--who wants to take on the risk Apple is willing to take on? Nobody, because there isn't any money in it for them...I think Pay could be one of Apple's best and most profitable moves! Pay was likely the key driver for all of the fingerprint work and investment over the last few years.
    Sep 13 08:27 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Market Provides Some Early Fall Color For REIT Investors [View article]
    I'm afraid we could have more to follow on REITs, depending on what the Fed says next week. Could get bloody like '13. At times like this I prefer to think of the income stream if I want to keep them, and buying back in on some names I have culled if Mr. Market gets irrational. I culled most of my health care REITs because of valuation. On the wider REIT market, UDF was a notable exception yesterday and one I added and kept because of your recommendation, Brad. My small cap apartments held up pretty well, too: BRG, APTS, and IRT. GLTA.
    Sep 13 07:26 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Asian Growth Sends Strong Bull Message For Apple [View article]
    "Big hit" is a good headline on the 6+! They are already sold out well into the next quarter. The big story, which I have yet to see covered, is the large increase in ASPs on the iP6. The 6+, with its full 1080P screen and massive battery life, are now the perfect MID imo. My only question was how well they would sell because of the price increase. Sounds like they are selling like hotcakes.
    Sep 13 07:04 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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