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  • China Slowdown Will Trigger Black Swan Event [View article]
    The Black Swan event, or better the boiled frog event, imho, is going to be us waking up one day and realizing China owns the gold (and the US Treasury) and makes the rules. I agree Alpine--problems are much likelier to show up in the West than China. Mr. Market is giving away great Chinese stocks like CHL right now, but he is giving profitless Western tech companies valuations reminiscent of the late '90s. I make no predictions, but I don't think there are any Black Swans swimming in the China seas (or lakes). We'll see.
    Apr 12 08:03 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Laptop Opportunity [View article]
    It makes too much economic sense with Intel's margins as high as they are. Just looking at the A7 clocks and benchmarks when it was released, and even without knowing the technicals, it was obvious that a QC version with a higher clock could easily power a laptop running OSX. An A8 derivative would be much better. It should enable a ~$799 price point, which would sell like hotcakes. The only way they don't do this soon, imho, is if Intel cut them a deal they couldn't refuse. I doubt it.
    Apr 11 01:01 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerging Markets, Should They Be In Your Portfolio? [View article]
    Great article imo. Dollar cost averaging is a great way to move into EMs if one is scared to take a full position for the desired mix. Usually, the mistake to avoid is trying to wait for the bottom. It can start back up and you miss it. If you start building a position and it drops sharply you can increase your allotment and lower your average cost. Of course, the good old long term thinking you advocate probably works better for most of us in the long run.
    Apr 10 07:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China Mobile suffers first profit fall since 1999 [View news story]
    Agree. It dropped to 19.6Bn and still pays 4-5% dividend. This is a growth story imo. When the TD-LTE buildout is complete, you have massive data capability in a place where there was little before. I see cable company type advantages down the road.
    Mar 20 07:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy China On This Multi-Year Pattern [View article]
    I agree, and dollar cost averaging is a great way to do it as well. Even if China is going over the cliff, dollar cost averaging is almost always a great way to chase it. China has massive reserves and a very successful state controlled economy, so continued growth is not only possible, but likely. PEs are deeply discounted to US and European stocks in many cases. If you are buying into other people's fear, China is one of the places to do it. Great article.
    Mar 19 02:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't follow the herd exiting emerging markets says BlackRock [View news story]
    Not only that, but China has 3.5Tn in reserves, compared to the Tns and Tns in debt we have piled up...if China dumps, they might be better equipped to handle the fallout than we are.
    Mar 18 12:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sifting The Apple Rumors: iPhone 6 [View article]
    Interesting points. I think the phone CPU is becoming a very fascinating animal. They are getting very powerful, and looking down the pike two to four years is really exciting. I think another big jump in performance, along with more integration, will enable a lot of technologies. For instance, if the phone could process voice commands on board, and wearables/other accessories can talk to it via BT LE, the phone sort of becomes the mini-server and comm device for other linked IOT devices. A watch is a great example. I don't see touch being big on a watch, and that is why sapphire makes a lot of sense there, along with solar. I see voice as the big enabler there. So, that is why I think the A8 will be a QC CPU. You accurately portray that Apple has milked process and instruction sets to their advantage. QC and increased integration seem the next logical steps to me. Whether that is in the A8 will be interesting. However, Apple's cadence has been 50-100% improvement on each whole number, so they are setting a blistering pace. I agree with you that they will have a hard time keeping the A5-6-7 pace up for long. The problem for Intel is that Apple likes having this in house--they get to collaborate sooner, and they get to keep it a secret, and they save money. All bad for Intel winning this business.
    Mar 8 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sifting The Apple Rumors: iPhone 6 [View article]
    fgrin, what about other wearables as well? What if the whole watch was transparent and sapphire? Apple could go a lot of different ways. My problem is seeing what is wrong with gorilla glass. It would seem like overkill to spend a bunch on a sapphire phone screen.
    Mar 8 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sifting The Apple Rumors: iPhone 6 [View article]
    I understood, Matt. I was just pointing out that Apple is very practical, and they are definitely pursuing sapphire, and the solar phone screen seems very impractical to me. But, maybe they have a lot of cracked screens. The new gorilla glass seems to minimize that, so I don't think it is for phone screens, but maybe they have something up their sleeve? Speaking of sleeves, I think that the sapphire could just be for wearables. The solar idea, btw, would work beautifully on a watch, because a watch stays in the light. But, Apple could have something else going on entirely. A completely enclosed sapphire-clad watch might be neat. We will see in the next 8-12 months. Fun speculating regardless.
    Mar 8 08:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sifting The Apple Rumors: iPhone 6 [View article]
    A couple of reasons why this one doesn't seem too logical. First, a solar powered phone would entice unsuspecting people to leave their phone in the sun, which is a sure way to ruin it--particularly on a dash. Second, most people keep their phone in a place where the sun doesn't shine. Sounds neat, but I doubt it. It does beg the question about the sapphire. Maybe they plan on selling a lot of watches? I guess we will have to be surprised. Mark, how about payments, cameras, fingerprints, charging, and indoor nav?
    Mar 7 08:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is A Good Time To Sell Pandora [View article]
    I like Pandora, dg! But, I think it is priced too high. Don't worry, though, Mr. Market doesn't listen to me. I like their algorithms better than Apple's, but I like Apple's convenience better. My music and radio are right there on the same app, and my BT player starts without prompting on my car radio when I turn the car radio on--wow, very nice. OTOH, I am not advocating panic. We had a Christmas party and I put Christmas Carols in on Apple radio, porting it over the surround system. I wanted something traditional with at least a hint of Christmas in it. When Apple played "I won't back down" by Tom Petty, I dumped it for a CD. I think Apple moved the guys who were working on Maps to the Radio section. But, Apple won't give up until they get it right--probably. We will see. Good luck.
    Mar 6 04:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is A Good Time To Sell Pandora [View article]
    Flux, you could hit it out of the park, and you could be run over by the park bus! At least your hundred. I watched the craziness in the 90s go on for years, so I am scared to short a bubble. It could pay huge though. Good luck.
    Mar 6 04:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Outguns Intel [View article]
    That wasn't my point--that Apple's engineers are in the know and they leaked it. My point was that Apple's engineers are in the know, and they understand (and are no doubt compensated on) the importance of having the A8 ready to go on time. They are a pretty capable bunch, I suspect. If the iP6 rollout was in danger this fall, then it wouldn't be in their interest to leak false stories painting a glowing picture.
    Mar 6 04:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is A Good Time To Sell Pandora [View article]
    LA, if P was selling for $8.99/share, I might get excited about this kind of result. But, this is a very competitive area for a number of reasons, and P is in this fight against the most capable tech companies in the world. They aren't likely to give up easily. I think it is overvalued. I could be wrong and wouldn't put much money behind the idea, but I think longs need to beware. Good luck.
    Mar 6 03:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Outguns Intel [View article]
    That could be Cincy, but I don't see Apple risking a ~ $100 Bn/yr franchise on a few Bn worth of CPUs! I would tend to give their engineers some credit for knowing when a schedule is risky or not. For that reason, I believe these rumors are likely true, or at least that a late summer iP6 is not in doubt, whether that is with Samsung at 28nm, or TSM 20/28nm, or even Intel. You can make a lot of money if you are right, though. If you knew Apple was going to have to slip the iP6 due to TSM, some puts might pay well! Good luck.
    Mar 6 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment