Seeking Alpha

Humble Eagles

Humble Eagles
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Humble Eagles' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Chicago Bridge & Iron beats by $0.03, misses on revenue [View news story]
    Mitch, after reading through the CC transcript, it looks like some of the analysts are just in denial on CBI. They made bad calls and they don't want to admit it. Maybe they don't understand it? Some of the questions sound like a conversation between a rebellious teenager and his dad. I have seen this many times. CBI is a great engineering firm and a great business to own. That we can get it this cheap is remarkable imo.
    Feb 25, 2015. 09:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge & Iron beats by $0.03, misses on revenue [View news story]
    Nice work as usual, Gregg! I did exactly the same, but I didn't swing quite as hard as you did. Honestly, the premium expense made me mad. I went deep in the money on the 17 leaps to try and mitigate it. I also saw a lot of parallels between CBI at 32+ and AAPL at 390. So, the way I figure it is that we are at the equivalent of AAPL ~$475 right now. Efficient markets? Thankfully, no.
    Feb 25, 2015. 09:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge & Iron beats by $0.03, misses on revenue [View news story]
    Lots of good info in the report in addition to cash flow, but none better than the strong guidance for this year--$5.55-$6.05! They have very good visibility and they still guided for close to $6.00. So, while the major averages are selling for ~17 X estimates, CBI is trading for slightly over a third of that multiple, which is quite a margin of safety, should something go wrong. At a similar valuation, the S&P 500 would be trading around the 2009 lows right now on current fundamentals! At just over 17, CBI would be selling for $100 today, and that is probably where it should be. Another no-brainer IMHO. I love pairing CBI with legacy airlines. Both are selling for 5-7 X earnings, and both are levered to oil, but uncorrelated. GLTA.
    Feb 24, 2015. 05:47 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Germany Is Having A Moment [View article]
    Succinct and great points imo! I would add that your analysis doesn't take energy prices into account. Germany is an energy user, not producer, so lower oil prices should help Germany's economy dramatically. The combination of lower oil and Euro make Germany my top pick moving forward. Valuation is the only weak point (it's fairly high). Not only are their exports cheaper, but lots of hot money is heading toward Germany and Europe. At the end of the day, the Central Banks are smarter than many seem to realize. The old saying, "don't fight the Fed," was likely forged by very large losses. Fighting the ECB might not be smart either! EWG and EWGS are certainly good options for US investors. If you believe the Euro has more to fall, you can pick up some hedged ETFs. I own several Wisdom Tree funds including some directed at Europe, too. GLTA.
    Feb 24, 2015. 03:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple tops $132 after Barron's predicts further gains [View news story]
    AAPL is cruising, but it is getting much closer to a fair value, maybe $140-$150 is where it should be today. Short term, the big risk is MWC. Samsung's new G6 might pull an iPhone 5S on Apple (the intro of the A7) by having an industry leading chip and process in it. Nobody has an SOC at 14NM yet, not even Intel. That is something Samsung has never enjoyed. Fortunately for Apple, Samsung doesn't understand that customer service is actually the biggest reason Apple is thumping them. If Samsung were to offer a two year warranty, honored by carriers and third parties, they could sucker punch Apple and take massive market share. I don't see that happening.
    Feb 23, 2015. 12:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Delta Air Lines and Spirit Airlines to tangle in Atlanta [View news story]
    SAVE is OK, but customers don't love flying with them, they endure it. Of course, one could make that argument for most airlines, but many think the experience is worse on SAVE. Pricing is like your cell phone bill; the cost is just an opening salvo to get into your pocket for every extra charge imaginable--and a few more to boot. It just seems cheap. Finally, the stock is incredibly expensive compared to DAL and AAL. I wouldn't short SAVE, but I would definitely buy DAL and AAL instead.
    Feb 23, 2015. 12:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge And Iron: Will There Be More Negative News? [View article]
    Martin, my problem with unusually low valuations (like what you are arguing for here) is that if we used that for the rest of the market, we would be around the 2009 lows--today! I would love a margin of safety, too, but if I am waiting for the S&P 500 to get back to 700, I might be in for a long wait. CBI could implode and guide way down on profits, but it seems the market already has that priced in...GLTA.
    Feb 23, 2015. 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Good Times Restaurants: Management Expects Growth Ahead [View article]
    >>The company expects to have a total of 7 open Bad Daddy's this year, and to have a total of 38 to 39 Good Times restaurants by fiscal year 2016. To fuel its growth plans, the company filed a $75 million S3, and is considering expanding outside of its home base of Colorado. If all goes to plan, management hopes to have a minimum revenue of $50 million by fiscal year 2016, or 67% higher than the current trailing twelve month revenue of $29.9 million.<<

    TPV, that statement could be misleading, and it is important for readers to understand something here: the projected growth in stores and numbers is not based on a secondary. GTIM has plenty of capital to execute that and more. The secondary would fund a new and much larger growth plan. It hasn't been announced yet. I think they have been surprised by the staggering growth and solid economics in their Good Times restaurants and I think Shake Shack and Habit have made them realize they are sitting on gold mines in both Good Times and Bad Daddys, even though they are different concepts. Applying a price to sales similar to Habit and Shake Shack, GTIM would be in the $20-$30 range next year without a secondary, but once they announce a much larger growth plan (the purpose of the secondary) we will likely have visibility to much larger sales and profit numbers. Getting in before they announce that plan would be a great idea IMO.
    Feb 23, 2015. 09:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge & Iron: Coming Back From The Brink [View article]
    Nice summation, and I have a question for you or the peanut gallery. What impact would you expect from the falling Euro on CBI? They are based in the Netherlands, but they have contracts just about everywhere, and a lot of employees here. I haven't looked at that aspect, whether they hedge currencies, etc. Thx and GLTA.
    Feb 19, 2015. 10:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge And Iron: More Than 100% Upside [View article]
    bay, it is over 40%! Hopefully somebody with some securities filing expertise can give us an explanation. Is 10% the tripwire on having to file? Each entity has less than 10%. If Buffett controlled over 40% of CBI on 12/31, I wonder how much he has now? It isn't listed in the 13F, so could they be double counting the shares, or are they getting around that by assigning the shares to the listed entities? Seems odd either way, unless they are trying to hide the fact that they own over 40% of CBI through the listed entities. The BRK shares are in the 13F; the other list is in the 13G/A.
    http://1.usa.gov/1rqYXK4
    Feb 17, 2015. 10:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Chicago Bridge & Iron's Accounting Clean? David Einhorn Seems To Think So [View article]
    So Buffett now directly controls >40% of CBI? I'm not close to being an expert on this stuff. It is listed on EDGAR. Maybe, we have a securities lawyer lurking?!
    Feb 17, 2015. 10:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Chicago Bridge & Iron's Accounting Clean? David Einhorn Seems To Think So [View article]
    Bay, I am seeing 10.7MM shs. on BRK. What entity owns the other 20MM? Thx.
    Feb 17, 2015. 08:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge And Iron: More Than 100% Upside [View article]
    V8, assuming there is no horrible news (bankruptcy imminent), CBI was and is *the* energy stock to own. Unlike big oil, it went down in full sympathy with oil prices, even though it is one of the least correlated (directly to oil) energy companies out there. So, it doesn't have the instant exposure, but it did go down more than most pure oil plays, at one point making it down to about six X this year's earnings! It is still a steal imo, assuming they don't lay a bombshell on us next week.
    Feb 17, 2015. 06:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge And Iron: More Than 100% Upside [View article]
    I hope so, too, wigit. I would call it succinct...to the point, though! I think he is dead-on. With CBI's current estimate of $5.64, applying today's forward estimate multiple from the Russell 2000 or Nasdaq 100 puts the CBI price over 100. The S&P 500 forward PE is slightly less frothy, and only yields a price today for CBI of $98+! If we cut earnings in half from current estimates, the value is still over 50. It is way up today. Probably due to 13F revelations that Berkshire didn't sell a share last qtr, and David Einhorn added millions. Bottom line: if they come anywhere close to estimates and guidance, it could and should rally back into the 60-70 range. With a bit of good news and stabilization in oil prices, I think we could easily double. GLTA.
    Feb 17, 2015. 06:39 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Chicago Bridge & Iron's Accounting Clean? David Einhorn Seems To Think So [View article]
    WM, nice job, and I agree with you! Actually, the forward estimate for this year is $5.64. If we apply today's forward PE of the S&P 500, CBI would be selling for ~$98 today. If we use the PE for the Russell 2000 or Nasdaq 100, we would be well over $100. I always marvel when Mr. Market goes nuts on a valuation. You wonder who was dumping shares in the 30s, and you wonder who was vacuuming them up. Clearly, David Einhorn was vacuuming hundreds of millions of $$s worth in CBI last quarter. Here is the weird thing about CBI's current valuation; even if earnings were cut in half from current estimates, at the same forward PE as the Russell 2000 it should be priced in the low 50s! Berkshire didn't sell any of their 10+ million shares last quarter, and Einhorn was adding millions of shares. Pretty smart company...and BTW, it is currently up another $1.21 AH for a total of $3.31 today! I suspect it was Berkshire's 13F.
    Feb 17, 2015. 06:16 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
2,273 Comments
6,198 Likes