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  • Apple Has The Ecosystem And Products To Maintain Strong Momentum [View article]
    It could very well be, but the market may also be discounting it a bit because of the denials. Once CHL is announced, it will enable fund mgrs to buy with a lot less worry about next year. Also, have you looked around at the PEs out there? Finding a bargain is very difficult. Apple's solid divvy, buyback, and growth prospects with and without CHL, should drive it over $600 soon. Obviously, that is a good news scenario. If CHL falls through it will likely correct.
    Dec 9 01:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Has The Ecosystem And Products To Maintain Strong Momentum [View article]
    Great job! A lot of factors being missed by WS right now. One is that the lineup is bigger and better than last year. They were more constrained on the 5, mini, and iMac last year than they are on the 5S, mini R, and iMac this year. They have products they didn't have last year: a new but 1 yr old phone (5C) and a year old mini at a very low price. Two is the economy worldwide is stronger, juicing electronics at Christmas particularly. Three is Apple also has better distribution, with major chain stores offering Apple's products as loss leaders and new carriers like DCM. CHL should be enough to move Apple over $600, but I think Apple is going to raise guidance due to the factors above. With Apple growing in the 10-20% range with big share repurchases it could make for a powerful rally in this market because Apple is *the* screaming bargain out there for large cap stocks with any growth at all. Most are 50% more expensive than Apple today!
    Dec 9 01:10 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Mobile indicates iPhone pre-orders to start; 5S supplies improve [View news story]
    This is like watching a tennis match. The media comes out with a story, CHL denies it. Repeat. Repeat. The real value is long term. Two years from now, much of China will have LTE and the number of LTE customers will likely be at least 200-300MM on CHL alone. This is a great deal for both parties if true.
    Dec 9 10:14 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why $600 Will Soon Be In Apple's Rearview Mirror [View article]
    That part of the discussion was a little confusing. The author is saying about 10Bn in iPhones for '14, which would be conservative. That would only be about 2.5% of the China Mobile customers buying an iPhone.
    Dec 9 09:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tech giants call on government to limit spying campaign [View news story]
    Let me add: when we get reports of the IRS or NSA using people's data for political vendettas or illegal activity, the government agents causing this harm should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. Congress needs to have a watchdog for data breaches. If the administration has audited Republican groups as harassment, the offending IRS parties should go to jail--right up to the White House. The government needs this access, but they have to be held accountable from bipartisan observation! The big tech companies should not have the right to snoop emails and searches imho!
    Dec 9 08:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tech giants call on government to limit spying campaign [View news story]
    This has to be dumbest thing I have ever heard!! The government needs to limit the snooping ability of the tech giants, not the other way around! I trust the FBI or NSA 1000X over Google! Why don't the tech companies pledge to stop using our searches and emails for any reason--especially for profit? The government can be controlled a lot easier than private companies.
    Dec 9 08:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Icahn Derail Apple's Latest Run Or Drive It To $600? [View article]
    Good points. The biggest problem with the bear argument is valuation. Apple was *insanely* cheap, just insane. It is still ridiculously low even after the little run over the last few months. The NSDQ 100 is about 50% more expensive than Apple (with zero credit for their cash), and all of the major averages are much pricier. Let's remember, the world economy is stronger this year and Apple is hitting on all cylinders right now. I think they will raise guidance very soon (around Christmas). China Mobile is icing on the cake. I think a very conservative number would be $650-$700, should CHL come through.
    Dec 9 07:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why $600 Will Soon Be In Apple's Rearview Mirror [View article]
    Great summation, Christopher! I think we need to dwell on valuation in this market. I have raised a lot of cash recently, not because I am too scared but because the valuations are so high! I simply can't find bargains! To be sure, there are good value companies, but most have big problems. Big tech is one of the few bright spots for valuation. But, with PCs in decline some of those companies may actually be shrinking. They are still better value investments than the rest of the market imo. Looking at Apple, though, we have a lower valuation than most of the big tech companies! We have a much, much lower valuation than the major indexes. Google is a great example. As people look around to find something of value, I think they will land on Apple. If we get some good news, which I expect, look out! I think they will have to raise guidance this month (same anecdotal experiences as you--particularly on Mac buying) and China Mobile remains a strong possibility. Apple should, imo, be about $600 apart from China Mobile and increased guidance. I would add about $50 if China Mobile is announced and maybe another $20 for a modest raise on guidance--$670. BTW, I would buy more Apple myself, but I don't want to put too many eggs in one basket!
    Dec 9 07:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Headed To $700 In 2014, What's Next For The Market [View article]
    Indeed. NSDQ 100 (QQQ) up>32% YTD. AAPL up>5% YTD. And the QQQ would have been higher minus AAPL. If AAPL rises 32% in the next hour, it still has a much lower cash adjusted PE!
    Dec 6 02:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Why Apple Is Heading Lower [View article]
    Well, you can just read some of his prior articles to see his earlier mistakes if you are feeling weak in the knees. It doesn't mean Apple is headed up, but it does help for all of us to remember that *nobody* knows the future, me included. A little over six months ago, he was advising his clients to sell Apple at about $450!

    "Therefore, I have also recommended to clients that they take profits from AAPL. The stock was recently trading at $451, and although I recognize the temptation some might have, the objective of a proactive approach is to secure gains and not hold on for the long term, so that is what we are doing."

    There is a risk in holding, but there is a risk in selling, too.
    Dec 6 01:33 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Why Apple Is Heading Lower [View article]
    I think that what is going on is distribution: weak hands to stronger, long term hands. Traders can't resist the profits, but investors are looking to add Apple to their holdings on any dips. CHL and DCM are long term positives--huge positives. GLTA.
    Dec 6 12:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Why Apple Is Heading Lower [View article]
    Apple is just so much cheaper than all of the major averages. It should benefit from rotation. Who wants to lose money in bonds? Who wants to buy low to no growth companies with PEs of 20? You can just accumulate Apple this morning with a cash adjusted PE that is half of the PE of the NSDQ 100! Apple is shockingly cheap right now.
    Dec 6 12:00 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Headed To $700 In 2014, What's Next For The Market [View article]
    True, we can "timeframe" it, but my point is that Apple's stock valuation is cheap relative to the major averages. The NSDQ 100, of which Apple is a major constituent, has a PE of ~21, or about 50% higher than Apple's! When you compensate for Apple's massive cash per share, the difference is obscene. The major averages are more expensive, too. If Apple is Lexus, and the major stock averages are GMs and Fords, a new Apple is $20,000 and the new GM and Fords are $25,000 to $30,000. The Lexus is a much better car imo and they are much cheaper.
    Dec 6 11:55 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Headed To $700 In 2014, What's Next For The Market [View article]
    All of the talk about China Mobile and Icahn has actually obscured the real story people should be watching: valuation. The market has been on a tear while Apple's stock is still down over 20% in the last year+. The mauling of AAPL has left it at a huge discount to all of the major averages. So, we are all looking for investments and bonds, REITs, and commodities are scary, while regular stocks are so expensive they are approaching scary. There just aren't many cheap companies out there that have any kind of a growth story at all--Apple is a rare gem at the moment imho.
    Dec 6 11:28 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple makes new 2013 highs; China Mobile says talks ongoing [View news story]
    The quote I saw didn't actually deny the WSJ report explicitly. What they said, according to Reuters, was: "We are still negotiating with Apple, but for now we have nothing new to announce," so they may simply be trying to keep a little bit of suspense.
    Dec 5 04:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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