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  • 3D Systems: Back To The Future  [View article]
    Good article, but I would discuss the huge short position. 3D printing/additive manufacturing is a very legitimate technology and DDD was one of the founding members because of their inventions. They have also purchased a tremendous amount of expertise, especially in software. The gargantuan short interest presents a tremendous risk imo. You just never know with tech stocks. Some of the tech stocks in the 90s were tremendously volatile. DDD is giving a big presentation in Boston later this week. Should they say something strongly positive, or if a big fish took a position in the recent dip, or if another company found the prices too low to pass up, or if hedge funds saw opportunity in the oversold condition/high short interest DDD could explode in one of the most spectacular short squeezes ever seen.
    Aug 10, 2015. 12:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems now up 20.2% post-earnings; SSYS, XONE, VJET also jump  [View news story]
    Chris, certainly possible, but don't forget tops and bottoms are very frustrating events because they don't make sense. You can hit a point of utter exhaustion on selling, where everybody who could possibly want to has already sold *and* you still have the unnatural pressure of 30-40MM shares sold short.
    Aug 10, 2015. 12:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Reversing My Call, Stock Is A Buy Once Again  [View article]
    Apple almost always makes a July/August low for some strange reason; you can set your Apple Watch by it. It usually follows with a *very* powerful rally. Even in 2012 it rallied almost 25% in the few weeks after the July/August low. There haven't been many bad times to buy Apple in the past, if any, but July/August fear has been a very consistent winner.
    Aug 10, 2015. 11:54 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid 'Big Picture' REIT Thinking  [View article]
    I think many of the externally managed REITs are getting discounted because external managers run the REIT for their own benefit instead of shareholders. I was looking at one today where FFO per share has been flat, dividends have been flat, but they have been doing secondaries like no tomorrow! Revenues have exploded--and, you got it--the fee based income to the external manager has gone up hundreds of % points! Investors are correct, imo, to demand 10-12% to help compensate for poor and self-serving management. The returns can be negative, so 10-12% may just be a few percent in real returns over the long haul. They glow over the 40% increase in metrics, but the amount per share doesn't go up because of dilution. SNR is getting up there where you have a chance to make a little. Obviously, there are differences in perception, and the most self-serving seem to be getting the biggest discounts. I'm sure it is possible for an external manager to do a good job.
    Aug 8, 2015. 04:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid 'Big Picture' REIT Thinking  [View article]
    I just bought SNR on the dip this week after the strong report. Good luck to us all!
    Aug 8, 2015. 12:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid 'Big Picture' REIT Thinking  [View article]
    Adam, I don't know. I have a hard time getting excited over the best REITs at 20X FFO and less than 4% yield. I would rather take the net lease for half the cost and twice the divvy. We may have a little rougher seas, but it is going to be hard to overcome the difference in price.
    Aug 8, 2015. 12:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid 'Big Picture' REIT Thinking  [View article]
    Steve, I would add that the leadership at APTS is pretty experienced, too. The COB started Post Properties (PPS) a long time ago, back when those Boomers were the same age as the current millennials, so he has been renting apartments to the same people for 45 years. I bought APTS because I thought they had smart mgmt and I like multifamily. I have done that a few times through the years and it turned out well every time. It has worked well so far on this one, too. I bought Ford back during the implosion when Mulally took over because I was familiar with his work at Boeing.
    Aug 8, 2015. 12:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Its Own Worst Enemy  [View article]
    My joke that isn't funny if you actually own an Android--it is free, and a great OS, as long as you don't mind sharing your phone with Chinese and Russian (and anybody else who wants to join you) hackers!
    Aug 8, 2015. 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: All In  [View article]
    Busted?!
    Aug 8, 2015. 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How China Will Take A Bite Out Of Apple's Growth Momentum  [View article]
    tone, I might add that Shanghai is up almost 16% YTD and the Hang Seng is up, too. The market has dropped recently and there has been volatility, but I don't think I would call it a crash. The S&P isn't doing nearly as well this year as China, but I still plan to upgrade our IP5 models this year!
    Aug 7, 2015. 02:45 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: All In  [View article]
    That is what they are working on with the USAF. You can read about it on their website.
    Aug 7, 2015. 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: All In  [View article]
    Well, that was my point, Robert. They will be very profitable without being cheaper than mass production, although mass production is certainly possible and I think even likely down the road. When an airplane has to sit and wait on mass production to get fixed, shop level production will be much cheaper. On your other point, yes. Titanium is pretty hard. You can check down at your auto parts store and find knock-offs all day long. I suspect NAPA has the copyright issue covered.
    Aug 7, 2015. 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: All In  [View article]
    Robert, you could have said that about a lot of technologies in the past! The statement is true until it isn't, but that is usually too late from an investment standpoint. I was discussing this on another thread earlier this week, and I pointed out the USAF contract for heat exchangers. They don't drop millions on companies unless they are pretty sure the capability could be developed. The engineering standards for pressure, stress, manufacturing tolerance, and reliability requirements of heat exchangers in jet engines are off the charts. If DDD is even close to meeting the USAF standards these machines can do more than most people can imagine. Think about the possibilities for auto parts. These machines could revolutionize reverse engineered parts. We have all had to buy a Lexus, or Honda, or Ford plastic part for $80 that one of these machines could make for peanuts. It may happen in two years, and it may take ten, but it will likely happen. There are many other applications in the medical/dental, technology, and education fields. This pullback provides quite an opportunity IMO. I would try to invest a little in several of the leading names, rather than betting it all on predicting the winner. GLTA.
    Aug 7, 2015. 09:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vereit unveils plans, sets guidance, re-establishes dividend  [View news story]
    I agree that it was a refreshing CC! I would love to add some VER (have a little) because I'd like to make back what I lost on ARCP. However, I was looking at how similar LXP's numbers are to VER. Similar price, but LXP has a much higher AFFO and a higher dividend and I realized there are probably better deals out there...Good luck to all.
    Aug 6, 2015. 08:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: All In  [View article]
    The problem is that you don't know what tomorrow brings and neither does anyone else. When AMZN crashed and lost more value than DDD back after the '99 bubble (90s to about 6), people said similar things about the then dead Amazon. Who wouldn't like to have that ~100 bagger in their portfolio now? Additive manufacturing is a very legitimate technology. I will admit to you that I don't know who will win and who will lose, but DDD is a very credible player. I own pieces of several of these companies and recommend the same to others. I wouldn't bet the farm on it. I agree with George on this one. Now is the time to be establishing a long term position imo.
    Aug 6, 2015. 07:55 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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