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  • ARCP - A Tempest In A Teapot Creates Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Scotts, just curious, what is your agenda on ARCP? Are you short? Are you in any way involved in a law suit against ARCP? It is perfectly fine if you are, but it helps to know why you have gotten on SA to fervently discuss ARCP? I actually appreciate seeing both sides, but I also like to know where people stand wrt their book. Thx, I'm long btw.
    Nov 4, 2014. 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ARCP - A Tempest In A Teapot Creates Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Great article and discussion, Omer and all! Scotts, just look at this: ARCP has issued ~12.5Bn in stock via secondaries and exchanges in the last year! Where did that money go? The answer is that there is still a ton of value in ARCP's RE assets. Even assuming ARCP had no value at all 12 months ago, we are missing 5.5Bn! The market cap was about 7Bn this AM. IOW, I think they could sell off a few assets and be debt free because the assets are so undervalued right now, or they could buy shares back. The weighted average lease is over 12 years and longer than O and NNN. Most of the debt is fixed and I think it has about a 5 year maturity on avg. Let's not forget that they had ~382MM in revs last quarter and interest was less than 100MM. This company has a lot of assets and income. I understand why a lot of people are mad over being scorched! There are a lot of people who bought or received 12.5Bn in ARCP stock in the last year. The point is not to panic. This is 2009, you have a fantastic house you believe is worth $500K. You have a 200K mortgage that you can easily cover with your job. A charlatan named Mr. Market knocks on your door and tells you to panic because your house is only worth 200K; the FBI is investigating your mortgage company and rates are going up. What to do? Panic? Or just ignore him, or buy another house at that price if you are loaded and have nerves of steel! GLTA.
    Nov 4, 2014. 11:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ARCP Financial Restatement: Securities Fraud And Accounting Error Are More Common Than You May Think [View article]
    Thx! Keep 'em coming and nice job.
    Nov 3, 2014. 04:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: The FBI Is Looking Into American Realty Capital Properties [View article]
    jc, they said it wouldn't in the conference, and that was based on selling CC. The revs will actually go down with the sale of CC. A lot of people aren't thinking correctly here. If they keep the 120MM in revs, AFFO should go up. It does complicate the company, and I think they might spin it off if RCAP falls through. It is likely that revs will be reduced because of the panic campaign. The point, though, is that the dividend should be fine. At 120MM, you are only looking at about a .10-12 cent increase, so I don't expect a large increase in the dividend if they keep Cole.
    Nov 3, 2014. 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ARCP Financial Restatement: Securities Fraud And Accounting Error Are More Common Than You May Think [View article]
    When people are screaming fire in a crowded room and the panic grips you, it causes us all to make terrible decisions. JPM's London Whale was much worse than this situation (what we know of the extensive outside investigation so far) and that created an opportunity to almost double your money in two years! They had FBI investigations and that produced criminal charges and attempts to extradite, and multibillion dollar penalties and losses. Simply not allowing yourself to panic, and sticking to fundamentals is the answer. Go back and read articles from a few months ago--many are by excellent authors. Most of the numbers are still valid. The 3 cents is nothing. Unless there are other big problems coming, ARCP should be back in double digits relatively soon. If there are more problems, or they escalate, then panic was the right move! It isn't easy, or anybody could do it. But remember that people have motives for yelling fire in the room....GLTA.
    Nov 3, 2014. 02:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty responds sharply to cancellation of Cole sale [View news story]
    They have an audit committee. Nasdaq must have old info?
    Nov 3, 2014. 02:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: The FBI Is Looking Into American Realty Capital Properties [View article]
    abdullah, another poem might be in order: "If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs..." Of course, on SA people aren't really losing their heads. They are short, or suing, or they have a vendetta, or they are just angry over losing money. Maybe they work for, or are invested in a competitor and they think yelling fire in a crowded plane will help them? They exaggerate and try to stir panic. ARCP did an investigation with outside counsel and a forensic investigation team from a a very reputable firm. According to the company it lasted six weeks, and it involved interviews, searching financials, logs, and emails. The report was the *result* of that investigation. So, if they are all lying, as you seem to imply, then yes more losses are coming--not just to ARCP but also to the outside firms involved in the collusion so many are accusing them of here. It is always possible, but I would think ARCP would know the stakes in lying here. They didn't say, we found a problem and we are looking into it. They said, we found a problem and we have investigated it properly and here is the result: 3 cents AFFO. No change to the divvy, GAAP accounting numbers, leverage or much else of anything. And we dealt with it--the offenders have been let go, and they have been replaced by very competent individuals.
    Nov 3, 2014. 02:20 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lesson Learned: I Was The Sucker [View article]
    Maybe they can get some cash out of RCAP for breaking the agreement and spin Cole back off in an IPO? This might be another of those cases where independence helps everybody.
    Nov 3, 2014. 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: The FBI Is Looking Into American Realty Capital Properties [View article]
    382MM in revenues last qtr and less than 100MM in interest! If you owned a business that had 282MM per quarter to run it, could you, perhaps, find a way to avoid bankruptcy, or selling off assets?
    Nov 3, 2014. 01:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: The FBI Is Looking Into American Realty Capital Properties [View article]
    BTW, Kay is not listed as a Board member or as a part of RCAP mgmt on their website.
    Nov 3, 2014. 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: The FBI Is Looking Into American Realty Capital Properties [View article]
    rip, he runs RCAP and the Board. How could this decision be made without him--backing out. If ARCP is proceeding without him and they are very unhappy with the announcement, do you see him staying? Maybe they can kiss and make up, but it sounds like Mr. S. is not meeting with the Board of ARCP.
    Nov 3, 2014. 10:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty responds sharply to cancellation of Cole sale [View news story]
    Dennis, don't miss the word independent there. That would be Board members without an affiliation with RCAP, no? Sounds like they are talking about proceeding without him.
    Nov 3, 2014. 10:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties Responds to Notice from RCS Capital Corporation [View article]
    Yep, it sounds like Mr. S is gone. I wonder if some will see the former CEO's departure from the Board as positive? I see ARCP trying to morph into something much more akin to O. I think it is doable. Getting rid of CC and correcting the issues quickly will go a long way. The weird thing is that if CC does produce revs it would be accretive and AFFO numbers would actually go up.
    Nov 3, 2014. 10:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: The FBI Is Looking Into American Realty Capital Properties [View article]
    Exactly. They were only getting 200MM in cash, so they weren't going to decrease leverage. I think it was more of a desire to morph into something like O--easy to understand, transparent, etc. Bottom line is that complexity would be higher, but all numbers and estimates would be heading significantly higher if CC actually produces 120MM. It sounds like a Board war is going to occur and Mr. S is out from the PR.
    Nov 3, 2014. 10:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: The FBI Is Looking Into American Realty Capital Properties [View article]
    The independent members--sounds like Mr. Schorsch is gone from ARCP to me. Would some consider this a positive?
    Nov 3, 2014. 09:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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