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  • Apple's October Event: Competing On Quality And Price [View article]
    delta, I agree. I am amazed at how shallow many of the analysts are when evaluating Apple's new products for innovation. This one is another remarkable jump. You want an interesting read? Simulate the A8X scores by using the A7X.4 on CPU and X 1.5 on graphics. The graphics guesses are getting uncomfortably close to the Surface Pro 3 in the tests I compared, which has Haswell core i5 in it. We will have to wait for a good third party test, but this sounds like more magic from the PA Semi team is on the way. The level of performance on these chips is remarkable. Maybe Apple has goosed the wattage, but I doubt it. This will be interesting to follow. On the pricing, they have every base covered--from the middle class in the BRICs to the high end of the developed market. Brilliant strategy imo. I think they will sell a gazillion.
    Oct 16, 2014. 06:49 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's October Event: Competing On Quality And Price [View article]
    I love the new iPad price points. We are finally getting the cheap iPhone everybody clamored for two years ago, but for IOS entry instead of a phone. $249, $299, $399x2, and $499 covers the gamut, and will open up Apple's addressable market by a couple of Bn people in Asia and around the world. No doubt, somebody will figure out a way to get these on sale for $150-$200 on Black Friday as a loss leader. Apple will likely sell north of 30MM this quarter. One point, the mini 3 has the A7.
    Oct 16, 2014. 06:21 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Delta Air Lines Q3 Earnings Report [View article]
    I think it is still too early to call Ebola...that is a big threat if it gets out into the general public. However, oil production is booming here, as is natgas. I think stable to lower fuel over the long haul is a distinct possibility. It is like having a money printing press for them. They use billions of gallons of jet fuel each year. I'm a bull, but cautious on the usual risks.
    Oct 16, 2014. 05:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Preview: All Hail The iPhone 6 [View article]
    Could be, Bill, but a couple of thoughts back at you: what do you consider way up? Apple has a history of pretty big growth rates. For Cook to make such a point about iPhone sales being, not just up, but way up, I think it is significant. 30% would be a reasonable guess, I suppose, but it could even be higher. 30%, with a 10% higher ASP than last year is well over 70Bn before any other increases!!! Work the math, and you realize Apple is headed for a moonshot on Monday's guidance. I don't see any way around it. Current estimates, as you well know, are <64. Also, that is a very high margin add. It sounds ridiculous, I agree. On the iPads, these are the low cost iPhones everybody wanted. Apple is opening sales to about 2Bn more people with these low prices. Book it Danno!
    Oct 16, 2014. 04:05 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Preview: All Hail The iPhone 6 [View article]
    Haha. I guess you guys missed Cook's clues: iPhone sales aren't just up, they are way up over last year! Prepare for a monster quarter. Because China wasn't in this year's rollout, and it was in last year's, this quarter will just be up modestly. I suspect Bill is too low on his Q1. Maybe a four Bn range anchored on 66Bn (66-70Bn, up ~16-24% before they start selling watches)! Maybe even more; Apple is conservative. We will see. Bill, if I did the math right, Cook did answer one of your guesses. I figure they sold 14MM iPads last quarter. Should be decent. They will sell a record boatload this Christmas because of the lower prices, but the ASP is going to be challenged. GLTA.
    Oct 16, 2014. 03:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More from Apple: Air 2 pricing, iPad Mini 3, 5K retina iMac [View news story]
    I don't think so. It is just a longer upgrade cycle, much more like a laptop. Apple is taking the price down to reach out to 2Bn more customers. They will reignite growth. I also like how they are stretching the market from high to low end. The graphics performance of the Air 2 is incredible. The camera is a huge upgrade. I suspect they have increased the memory, which it badly needs, and the flash tier is improved. The iPad is becoming much more like the laptop market. Also, he told us they had a good quarter at roughly 14MM units sold, if I did the math correctly--really great considering the upgrade was coming and everyone knew it. I think the new iPads are the sleeper--they are going to sell a ton overseas. But, if you missed it, Cook gave a huge clue on iPhone sales when he said they are not just up over last year--they are way up. Units are way up. ASPs are way up. They are going to blow the doors off in the holiday quarter and throughout FY15. I would be a buyer before the shorts get through and turn Apple around.
    Oct 16, 2014. 03:35 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More from Apple: Air 2 pricing, iPad Mini 3, 5K retina iMac [View news story]
    I disagree. They run great, and they are opening up IOS to the middle classes of India and China. I have the A7 iPad Air. It runs IOS great. I'm not sure what you are thinking. Remember, the mini drives a lower res, so it is fine, too. Don't worry about margins; they are probably going up. The iPhone has that covered.
    Oct 16, 2014. 03:14 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More from Apple: Air 2 pricing, iPad Mini 3, 5K retina iMac [View news story]
    Well, it sounds like they sold about 14MM iPads last quarter for 70MM over the last 12 months. These things have a pretty good pulse. The lower prices should produce good growth, particularly to the billions overseas who don't own one. They are now much more accessible to the middle class of China and India. It is clear that Apple has decided to make the iPad the "low cost iPhone" that everyone was screaming for last year, the cheapest way to get into IOS.
    Oct 16, 2014. 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple unveils iPad Air 2; thinner design, Touch ID, less glare [View news story]
    I disagree. The iPad has become the cheap iPhone everyone wanted. 249 for mini, and 299 for the mini retina. That is just dirt cheap. $399 for the Air. Once again, most analysts aren't smart enough to get past the new gold color. The story here is 3Bn transistors on the A8X! 150% better graphics is like a video card from not too long ago. Remarkable innovation. They are going to sell a bunch of Macs this quarter. The $499 mini might bring the ASP down, but they should sell a boatload. It is now the cheapest way to get into Mac. And with Haswell in it, it is competitive.
    Oct 16, 2014. 03:00 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple unveils iPad Air 2; thinner design, Touch ID, less glare [View news story]
    The shorts always hit it hard on rollout days. It should come back quick when people realize what he said about iPhone orders. The shorts start covering at some point, usually. Could be tomorrow.
    Oct 16, 2014. 02:55 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple unveils iPad Air 2; thinner design, Touch ID, less glare [View news story]
    Yes
    Oct 16, 2014. 02:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More from Apple: Air 2 pricing, iPad Mini 3, 5K retina iMac [View news story]
    The biggest swing and a miss by analysts, imo: ignoring iPad. They will sell a boatload of these things. Also, it sounds like iPad sold better than expected last quarter from what he said. These are the cheap iPhones everyone wanted, starting at $249, but the mini retina at $299 will sell a bunch. They should sell a bunch overseas.
    Oct 16, 2014. 02:47 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies' Sapphire Wind-Down A Game Changer For Wafer Prices, Rubicon [View article]
    Digitimes ran an article talking about the booming growth of fingerprint sensors.
    We will likely see them move to tablets today, if rumors are right, but they could see a number of new applications in the next five years. Think of all the applications from appliances to cars to locks. Digitimes predicted almost 1.5Bn by 2020 in smartphones! So, even though that is usually the cheaper, 2" core, it all helps the overall market. RBCN's emphasis on vertical integration and their recent work to qualify for patterned substrates may help differentiate them.
    Oct 16, 2014. 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley adds Apple to Best Ideas list [View news story]
    That math just doesn't work for me, rich. How are they going to have a "great" Q1, and then miss their estimates for the year so badly? Right now analysts have about a 6Bn increase in Q1 over last year programmed. Assuming ASPs are up 10% on the phones, we are over half way there with flat iPhone units from last year! Amazing. The analysts are just off imo. Assuming Apple sells in the 60s, say 62.5MM iPhones, the increase will almost double over the current estimates! That is no increases for iPad, Mac, services, nada. That is very high margin, too. It is very possible that they could beat 62.5, too. So that would add 5+ Bn in high margin revs just next quarter--all added to the current estimates without any help from elsewhere. There is so much interest in these phones and there are billions of potential new customers they didn't address, even 12 months ago. Plus, smartphones are still growing rapidly. Believe it or not, there are still tens of millions of customers in the US that haven't upgraded to a smartphone yet. They will sell a lot of watches to the Apple faithful, too, and the ASP on the Watch is going to be higher than many think (because of the high dollar options and accessories). All of that is accretive. And, many new products and categories are rumored for next year. With the large reduction in shares that is coming, $7/share is an implosion, rich. I don't see how we can get there without some type of disaster. I have been wrong before, but I am having a hard time getting anywhere close to your numbers. Maybe they will level off in 16, but 15 looks to be a blockbuster year, assuming the wheels don't come off the economy.
    Oct 15, 2014. 07:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google launches Android 5.0, new Nexus mobile and TV hardware [View news story]
    I agree, that sounds crazy. $649 for a Nexus phone is like $2000 for an iPhone. Who would buy that? The nice thing about the Nexus line is that Google subsidizes them, virtually giving them away.
    Oct 15, 2014. 01:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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