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  • Is Apple Stalled On iPhone 6 Release? [View article]
    Well, Cincy, if you are looking at iP6 growth it would probably help to look at iP6 sales instead of only pulling numbers from previous generations, don't you think? That is at best naive, and deceptive at the worst. I have discussed why last year is a bit misleading, but I would be happy to go back over it if you would like. 2012 had a similar footprint, and we know now that the iP6 first 24 and first weekend sales were both up 100% from 2012. I don't think it will scale into next quarter at 100%, but I do believe units are growing dramatically. I have mentioned the rumor from the Wall Street Journal and Digitimes repeatedly, but I have mentioned it conditionally. However, I have always assumed a basic understanding in my readers that we were talking CY 14 (and detailed why). It is understood that is for FYQ4 and the first quarter of 15. On TSMC, that is possible, and it is possible Samsung is in the mix, and it is possible the Wall Street Journal and Digitimes are both wrong. The initial 100% increase over 2012, however, fits very nicely with the WSJ numbers. It is all speculation for investors' consideration. As always, I advise due diligence and diversification before investing.
    Sep 23 04:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Stalled On iPhone 6 Release? [View article]
    Your problem is the same as Nic's, Cincy: you build straw men by putting words in other people's mouths, then argue with the positions you created.

    >> You're last sentence above, "it isn't close to being priced in yet" is itself a claim.<<

    It's your for openers, but that is true. I did make that claim, but I also carefully explained why it was likely to be true. I'll recap just for you: the average analyst estimate is calling for ~ a 5Bn increase Q1 14 to Q1 15 for Apple. It is dynamic. Simply running flat iPhone sales at an ASP of $700 gets us close to the whole increase! So, yes I am claiming that Apple's iPhone revenues will likely drive much higher numbers in Q1. However, you were the one who said that Apple's tally would be "73M iPhones sold, up 43% year-over-year in FQ1." I never said that. 73MM is possible, but I would tone that number down. Even 60MM phones at the higher ASP will double the 5Bn increase. Finally, I think everyone understands we are discussing possibilities for investment purposes here. Maybe you don't. I always advise being diversified and cautious: California could have an earthquake, China could get in a war, another company could surprise the market with a market changing product--anything could happen to foil my expectations, so don't put all your eggs in one apple basket.
    Sep 23 04:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Stalled On iPhone 6 Release? [View article]
    I wasn't "claiming" anything. Merely pointing out the opportunity for those who are interested. Apple should have a fantastic FQ1, and all of FY15 is looking strong. I think 60MM in Q1 is a good, conservative number, and as I explained, it isn't close to being priced in yet.
    Sep 23 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's iPhone 6 First Weekend Sales Record: What It Means For Investors [View article]
    I just noticed Robert's question, but you answered it better than I could have. Nice job.
    Sep 22 08:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Stalled On iPhone 6 Release? [View article]
    Thx, Old Hand. The author has been a bit bearish in the past at times, but I would point out that he said he was a buyer of Apple here.
    Sep 22 03:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Stalled On iPhone 6 Release? [View article]
    Do the math on 70MM and you will see 45Bn is way low for the FY that starts in a few days! Let's say they sell 15MM iP6s in Q4. That leaves 55MM iP6/6+s for Q1. Assuming 10MM older gen phones that is 65MM at an ASP of about 700+. That is about 13Bn higher iPhone revs than last year, and it is very high margin. Right now the analyst estimate consensus is for Apple to increase sales next qtr by ~5Bn for the whole company!! The higher ASPs will blow those numbers up completely, even with almost flat sales from last year. This is a case of the market being way behind reality. You want to get crazy? Up the older gen percentage to normal and plug in the 80MM number!! I don't advocate getting crazy, but even discounting the low end numbers leads to a huge beat next quarter/year. GLTA.
    Sep 22 03:42 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Stalled On iPhone 6 Release? [View article]
    Anything can happen, but I expect the analysts to start raising their estimates. The units are growing dramatically, as are ASPs. Apple has more new products coming and the average analyst numbers don't reflect the growth. Also, when Apple says the numbers exceeded their expectations, that is legit. They can't say that and then miss numbers or lower guidance, as they can be sued. They didn't raise guidance, but that tells me they will do very well this qtr. The rumors from WSJ and Digitimes are that they have some huge expectations(70-80MM), so if they have been exceeded, it should be a fun ride. Mr. Market is either really smart here, or he just hasn't done the math yet...I am betting on the latter.
    Sep 22 03:25 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's iPhone 6 First Weekend Sales Record: What It Means For Investors [View article]
    Pete, they just sold 100% more phones than two years ago with pretty much the same footprint, and they increased prices. 100% may not scale, but sales are still growing dramatically. Looking back and finding a period to make yourself feel better about your FUD doesn't allow us to escape from reality.
    Sep 22 03:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The iPhone 6 Plus Teardown Is Here [View article]
    Well, there is one important point to make--70-80MM iP6/+s in sales has not been priced into Apple itself! Sometimes the bargain is hiding in plain sight. The increased ASPs Apple is commanding haven't been factored in either. The combination makes for a powerful mix heading into CY Q4 (FY1). GLTA.
    Sep 22 03:07 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's iPhone 6: China Update [View article]
    I agree, and they blew out the initial 24 hour orders and first weekend shipments. Apple's analyst expectations averages don't reflect these numbers by a long shot. China is coming soon!
    Sep 22 01:32 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's iPhone 6 First Weekend Sales Record: What It Means For Investors [View article]
    I think Samsung is getting squeezed by the iPhones on one side, and by the cheap-O Androids on the other, Nic. The fact that Apple has dramatically raised their prices and had a large spike in volume tells you that high end phones have never been healthier--at least for Apple.
    Sep 22 12:47 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First weekend iPhone sales top 10M [View news story]
    Cats, they may not raise this quarter. Next quarter is what should be headed up.
    Sep 22 12:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's iPhone 6 First Weekend Sales Record: What It Means For Investors [View article]
    I think it is a huge beat. You have to look at the variables and the expectations. The proper comparison is to the 5. The rollout footprint was similar. Last year was the anomaly because the 5C was really just a repackaged one year old iP5. So, the numbers are comparing this year's two new phones in the top tier with last year's top two tiers, and it included China last year. The 5C was also the first new phone they didn't sell out of completely, so they were actually able to count inventory stocking in the initial weekend. Some analysts thought as much as 2-3MM! That would put the 5S at 6-7MM with China included. For investing this is what matters: Apple is going to sell a whole bunch of phones next quarter, and the ASP of the phones will be dramatically higher! Last year's holiday qtr featured 32Bn+ in iPhone revs. Even at a fairly conservative ASP of just over $700 and 60MM total phones, we are looking at 10Bn in extra high margin phone revs. That doesn't count the rest of the company and it is way above current analyst estimates. Apple is a buy imho.
    Sep 22 12:31 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's iPhone 6 First Weekend Sales Record: What It Means For Investors [View article]
    I guess barely is in the eye of the beholder, Nic. It beats it by over 100% on some of the graphics tests and it thumps it soundly in a number of others. The biggest accomplishment, in my view, is driving the larger screen and increasing web surfing time 25-30% over the 5S (almost 12 hours). In light of the battery size, it sounds like the PA Semi boys did exactly what Cook & Co. claimed: better performance with a dramatic reduction in wattage. I was one of the ones who thought Intel's engineering and process advantages would crush Apple at this point in the game. The fact that Apple is ahead is remarkable to me.
    Sep 22 11:48 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's iPhone 6 First Weekend Sales Record: What It Means For Investors [View article]
    Also read the initial performance reviews at Anandtech. I was comparing Intel's Apple knockout punch, Bay Trail Quad Core, with the dual core A-8 numbers. The magicians at PA Semi are the real story on Apple innovation, folks, not how many times Tim Cook says the word amazing, or the color of the watch bands. The A8 appears to be another remarkable win for Apple.
    Sep 22 11:00 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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