Seeking Alpha

Humble Eagles

Humble Eagles
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Humble Eagles' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Chicago Bridge And Iron: Will There Be More Negative News? [View article]
    Chimp, he didn't panic when WFC went below $10, when GS went below $70, or BAC went below $6. He bought more, despite massive headwinds and damaged moats. What makes you think he won't get the last laugh with CBI?
    Feb 16, 2015. 02:30 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge And Iron: Will There Be More Negative News? [View article]
    You guys aren't alone. David Einhorn added almost 3 million shares of CBI recently.
    Feb 16, 2015. 01:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • German Economic Growth Smashes Expectations [View article]
    I am certainly no expert, but Germany is a manufacturing and oil using, Euro based economy with a very solid balance sheet. The rest of the Euros have weakness, but Germany doesn't. If it were stand alone, the Mark would be powering toward Mars right now. Germany benefits more than any economy in the world from all of these factors IMHO. Deutschland is where I have moved a significant % of my overseas investments, but all of Europe could do very well if their QE works. Of course, a Greek tragedy might provide a cheaper entry. GLTA.
    Feb 16, 2015. 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge And Iron: Will There Be More Negative News? [View article]
    Nice line, "A festival of bad news is already priced in," and I would argue people are thinking bankruptcy is possible at these prices. A quick glance tells me CBI is only paying about $85MM a year in interest. Maybe that will go up substantially moving forward? Having some debt at current rates is smart; in fact, they could easily handle more debt if needed. 85MM isn't bad for a company with 14Bn in revs, and over a billion in earnings before interest and tax. Some of these profitless restaurant chains are selling for 3-5X sales and many other companies are selling for way more than that. CBI is selling for 25%-30% of sales right now. The reason I am holding and adding on dips is that the world will continue to need energy and CBI is the top engineering name imo. Long term, it should do extremely well. One other point, David Einhorn via Greenlight has been adding CBI recently (almost 3 million shares and close to 3% of CBI's outstanding) and Berkshire owned a whole bunch. We are in pretty smart company.
    Feb 16, 2015. 10:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge And Iron: Will There Be More Negative News? [View article]
    CBI is so cheap that a lot of investors are scared that Mr. Market knows something terrible (me included). The consensus estimate is over $5 last year and $5.64 this year. At 15X forward earnings (that is a significant discount to the major averages), CBI should be selling for $85 today--again, $85 is discounted! So, I think the market is pricing in a devastating drop in earnings. The other possibility is that Mr. Market has made another of his famous pricing errors. A bit over a year ago, he was giving Apple shares away in the mid $50s. A few months ago, he went nuts and was giving airline shares away at less than 3 times this year's earnings! It happens. The danger in waiting for one more big drop is that free lunches don't last long. Mr. Market is telling us that CBI has an absolute bombshell/disaster waiting for us on the earnings CC. Something close to bankruptcy fears perhaps. If CBI comes anywhere close on earnings and guidance it should rally. If they hit their numbers and maintain guidance, it could easily double. GLTA.
    Feb 16, 2015. 09:37 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: Apple car project is for real, and it's a minivan [View news story]
    So, they are still working on perfecting a TV, after 8 years, and now they are rolling out autos? Somehow, I just don't buy this one!! Maybe they are working on the cockpit, equipping it with "A" series processors and other nifty technology, looking to sell the package to mfrs? I just can't imagine Apple wanting to sell cars.
    Feb 14, 2015. 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay Calm And All Will Be Well [View article]
    George, on a related note, here is what I like: analyst estimates in the $10-11 range this year on UAL and AAL, the recent pullback, and put premiums 6-8 months out in the 10-15% range at the money. I sold some of both Friday, but I'm bullish on airlines and prefer to think of it as a discounted buy. If I'm right, and they do well I won't mourn the expiration. The risk in airlines is real, though, so I might own some more of both. Not betting the farm on them. Enjoy your thoughts, as always.
    Feb 14, 2015. 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Currency Wars Offer Unique ETF Opportunities [View article]
    I like Europe for the reasons you mention. There is a lot of risk, but Germany is a manufacturing economy, and they are beneficiaries of lower oil and a lower Euro! Cheap Mercs and BMWs are going to sell. Europe is on sale and I expect money to move that way--from M&A, to tourism, to exports, to equities. I am adding a lot of Europe, but trying to use some calls to limit risk and lock in upside. Contrarian investing is seldom pleasant, and the headlines have been very scary--war, Greece, etc., but that is what provides the discount. It does become pleasant if prices rise. Europe just needs to rekindle some growth, which I think they will do with their version of QE. GLTA.
    Feb 13, 2015. 02:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Key Highlights From Prospect Capital's Quarterly Report [View article]
    I bought some PSEC on a dip, but in this yield starved investing world, an 11% yield makes me nervous. Who is right? Mr. Market or us? I am definitely not in love with this name, but if it just held this price for a couple of years, I would be looking at a large gain with the divvy. GLTA, and thx for the update!
    Feb 13, 2015. 08:16 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mattson Technology beats by $0.03, beats on revenue [View news story]
    I saw this one on an insider buying article last year and looked into it. The guidance was so strong, you might have to be patient on a pullback. With record spending on process improvement, I am not selling any of it. We could really get a nice run here.
    Feb 13, 2015. 08:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • After Hours Gainers / Losers [View news story]
    Don't miss MTSN here. I have enjoyed owning that one, and I am not selling a share. They beat the numbers soundly, but the guidance was even better. Insider buying was the only thing that alerted me to look into it!
    Feb 13, 2015. 08:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe heads higher after GDP data [View news story]
    I would say it is better to look ahead. I like the favorable currency much more than last quarter's GDP. European goods and companies have been put on sale by the lower exchange rate, so I expect their economy to improve, provided we don't get more disasters. Europe is back in my portfolio in a large way, for the first time in many years. I think it will outperform the US markets this year.
    Feb 13, 2015. 08:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AmEx down 6% on scrapping of Costco exclusivity [View news story]
    Funny, I think COST is the buy now. I quit my Costco membership a few years back because of the way I was treated by AXP, and because Costco wouldn't take action. It wasn't their fault, but forcing the monopoly on customers was; I will likely go back to Costco now that my one family boycott is no longer necessary.
    Feb 12, 2015. 02:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Apple's Stock, Not Apple's Bonds [View article]
    bjn, I agree, but I am just posting trading comments. Likely to be downward pressure for the rest of Feb if Apple is quiet, as expected. There will be a ton of phone news from everybody else and that tends to dampen expectations. Also, Ming-Chi Kuo put out a note predicting a 50% drop in iPads this quarter! He is very well connected. Net result is that we may get some pullback until Apple puts another spark into the mix. GLTA.
    Feb 6, 2015. 01:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Apple's Stock, Not Apple's Bonds [View article]
    The next month could well provide some great buying opps for Apple: MWC is less than a month, and we will see the best of what everybody not named Apple has to offer. The new Galaxy, Intel's latest ideas, HTC, LG, etc. I had read that Apple would have a media event this month, possibly rolling out a number of new products, but as of yesterday the best guessers were saying some sort of promo event for the watch prior to April, and maybe a new laptop. That probably won't move the needle. Apple is very cheap, but Mr. Market may be afraid of what Samsung/other companies will roll out. I would be careful, as this is the traditional time for Apple to sell off--going into Summer. Didn't happen last year and GLTA.
    Feb 5, 2015. 10:23 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
2,273 Comments
6,199 Likes