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  • American Realty Capital Properties' Dividend: What We Know, What We Might Know, And What We Can't Know [View article]
    I would beware of people who won't disclose their position! If a guy doesn't have the guts to say he is short, then why listen to him? I respect and listen to people who are on the other side of the trade, but anonymous FUDsters/pumpers are unreliable at best. SA requires it for authors, and anonymity is the reason why you can disclose your position. On the guidance, the latest numbers for this year were given in the PR after the sale of Cole was announced in early Oct. After dumping Cole Cap, $1.06-1.08 for this year and $1.11-1.14 next year. Needless to say, they will be changing. If Cole produces cash flow, the numbers could go up. That is a curve ball. The lawsuits will be the big expense, as well as decreased deals. We know a dividend cut isn't happening until next year at the soonest, so the question is how far below 1.11-1.14 they will go. I would beware of second or third hand analyst chatter, especially.
    Nov 25, 2014. 04:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's market cap tops $700B [View news story]
    port, it is most likely profit taking. Buyers are stepping in on anything close to a dip. We may be seeing some window dressing soon, and large entities have been underinvested on Apple relative to their index weight, so big bucks have been waiting for shares on any dip. I think the smart money wants in prior to the next CC, not out. Read: new Watch, MB Airs, iPads, Apple TV. These should come after they have not out brought a new product in years between Thanksgiving and summer. Analysts are starting to signal a major blowout this quarter, so when is the next bit of bad news? Maybe a catastrophe is on the way, but I doubt it. Apple's forward PE is still discounted deeply compared to the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 100, so selling the index to raise cash to buy Apple is the "alpha" play that has been winning big. GLTA.
    Nov 25, 2014. 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's market cap tops $700B [View news story]
    13X is on numbers that will rise dramatically when iPhone sales growth is corrected higher and the watch is factored into the mix. I think we are still in the 10-12X range ex-cash when considering buybacks and growth. The Nasdaq 100 is selling at just under 20X forward estimates today. The S&P 500 is over 17, and the Russell 2000 is over 19. Apple would be selling for about $150 if it was given the same value as the NSDQ 100 or Russell 2000 index. That gives zero credit for Apple's cash pile and quality. Mr. Market is saying the average Nsdq 100/Russell 2000 company is a much safer company than AAPL. The smart trade has been to sell the index and buy Apple. It can turn around, but with such a huge valuation discrepancy, I don't see it being a big risk unless Apple has a catastrophe. Always possible. GLTA
    Nov 25, 2014. 10:38 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford's New F-150: Best-In-Class Fuel Economy Is All It Needs [View article]
    Point of emphasis: you have to look at the total package on the Ecoboost 6, and the F150 has better HP, torque, towing, and payload--all while achieving higher MPG. So, if it performed worse, while giving a couple of MPG better, it wouldn't be as noteworthy. Everything is better on this truck and that will make it a big winner. I am sure GM and Dodge are working on an answer.
    Nov 25, 2014. 07:12 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Pays To 'Think Different' About Apple's Stock Price [View article]
    Good job, even though I disagree with your call. Current estimates call for 66.22Bn and 2.52. Both are rising each day. As big a number as that is, I think it is way too low! It is less than 9Bn more than last year's 1Q. Two respected analysts raised their targets and were in the news today: Kuo and Caso. Both are checking the order chain and both are calling for a huge increase in iPhone sales. The lower of the two is calling for almost a 30% increase at the top of his range. What a lot of people are missing, though, is last year's 5C and 5S sold for less than the 6 and 6+ and they still had an ASP of $637 (all iPhones). I think we will be over $700 this year. The lower number times $700 is 13Bn in increased revs. Apple has called this year's phone sales growth dramatic--not just up, but way up. So Mr. Kuo may be right. This quarter is going to be much higher than current estimates, probably over 70Bn and approaching $3. If Mr. Kuo is correct, we are likely looking at ~75Bn and well over $3. Maybe the stock could relax, but it is currently discounted on the low numbers, and, *most importantly*, they have a number of new products rolling in the new year. They haven't rolled out new products in the first calendar quarter in years. GLTA, and again, very well written article.
    Nov 24, 2014. 04:36 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Wait To Invest New Money In Apple [View article]
    Patrick, I think Gary is saying look at the people who bought at $700 two years ago. They are up over 20% total, and that is the worst possible case, as long as you bought and held. Those who were buying at $390 are up over 100% in a little over a year. Sometimes trying to call the perfect trades causes you to miss the gain--a very real risk that many try to deny or ignore. Apple may keep going, as the most recent iPhone estimates are very high! A huge beat, along with a bunch of new products in the New Year are going to make it hard for Apple to go down. Because of the buyback and the exploding analyst estimates, I think we are still significantly discounted from the major averages, especially when cash is adjusted. There just aren't many bargains out there. Apple is on sale and it is more solid than most of the companies in the indexes that are more expensive.
    Nov 24, 2014. 04:10 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple breaks highs following new bullish notes [View news story]
    Well, the keys are ASP and units. It still hasn't soaked into many analysts that Apple is sandbagging and the numbers are way too low. Let's take Ming-Chi, one of the most respected and independent thinking analysts. Assuming a $700 ASP, his number is almost an $18Bn increase in revs for this quarter YOY!! That is an 18Bn increase in iPhone revenue only. (Very high margin revs, btw). Apple guided for just under 10Bn higher at the top of the range--for the whole company. BTW, he isn't the only source saying orders are huge--these guys talk to suppliers and it is coming from many different sources. Even tuning down to the other guys, they will blow out of the top end like a Saturn 5 launch. That assumes no growth from any other product at Apple! Been saying this since the phones rolled out: this quarter is going to be huge. Not only that, but I see another huge couple of quarters, as Apple will be rolling out a number of new products in the new year (for the first time in years). I think Apple is headed to Mr. Caso's target of $135--probably quicker than many think.
    Nov 24, 2014. 03:52 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple gains following target hikes [View news story]
    I'm surprised SA hasn't commented on the increased targets and the big note out of Ming-Chi Kuo, predicting a stunning 71MM+ iPhones this quarter! Needless to say, Apple will beat the top of their range by at least 5Bn is he is close to right!
    Nov 24, 2014. 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Independence Realty not budging from the lows after secondary [View news story]
    Thx for the great response, and I do own some IRT. I would advise caution for several reasons: due to the higher required credit standards, apartments have been in a boom cycle since the '08 meltdown (one of the reasons I like them). The prices may not be at highs, but they certainly aren't close to the lows. IRT has said they aren't getting bargain basement prices--they have to pay market rates. So, my point is that there is a risk that all of this new capital is chasing an overheated apartment market--they could even be getting in at the top, depending on where we go from here. They have said the math works and we certainly could have many years of growth ahead. I am not predicting, just commenting. My statement on the overage was directed at the price being 20 cents less than the offer. If they want IRT shares, why not buy it on the open market for less than the overage price? If RAS gets a management fee, or a finder fee, or any other fees from the buying, then they profit from the buying. Mr. Market drove RAS up on the secondary, and IRT was pummeled. I am just noting it for discussion and taking appropriate cautions. GLTA.
    Nov 24, 2014. 10:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will OPEC agree to cut output? Will it matter? [View news story]
    There are a lot of negatives for oil right now: 1) - Booming technology-driven improvements in efficiency. Ford just announced a new F150 that has over 300 HP coming from a V6, and the truck gets around 40% better MPG than the small V8 that didn't do nearly as well on performance from 2008 (typical replacement cycle of 6 years). One example, but the trend is definitely there. MPG improvements are accelerating across the board and competition will make it more pronounced. 2) Oil production is growing dramatically in N. America. 3) - A BTU of Natgas is incredibly cheap compared to a BTU from oil in N. America. Natgas is abundant, cheap, and it is relatively easy to use it. 4) Technology has made oil more accessible around the world. 5) - Alternatives continue to improve slowly. Solar is nibbling as we write. 6) There is a risk in OPEC cutting because prices may crash anyway, which would make it worse. If they keep production up and discuss a willingness to see $50-$60 oil, it might go a long way in curtailing new production. This has been the way they have killed production and alternative energy in the past--allow oil to go down to a level that will bankrupt small or poorly run companies. GLTA
    Nov 24, 2014. 09:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Scandal That Should Shock Nobody [View article]
    Two thumbs up to Simon for trying to discuss non-traded REITs, but I find his article lacking in clarity (sorry for that one). This is very confusing, and there is a lot of money at stake! Stirring the pot and spicing it up with two tablespoons of Madoff doesn't help at all. Many don't understand that RCAP, ARC and ARCP are three different companies.
    Nov 22, 2014. 08:22 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Independence Realty not budging from the lows after secondary [View news story]
    UTA, why would the over sell out if they can buy it for .25 cents less on the open market? I don't see that happening. I like apartment REITs and own IRT, but continually flooding the market with cheap shares (below our ownership price) just makes me question the motivation. This is the kind of move ARCP was doing, too. Caveat Emptor! I would make sure I didn't have too much of this one.
    Nov 21, 2014. 03:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford divulges fuel-economy numbers on 2015 F-150 [View news story]
    I'm impressed! Ford compares it to the '08 F-150 with the small V-8 (middle engine). Everything is up dramatically, most of it in the 30-40% range--towing, HP, torque, etc., and most importantly, MPG. (although MPG is slightly less %). So, you are getting big V8 performance from 6 years ago, with V8 sedan MPG, or even V6 sedans that many of us used to drive a few years before that. The oil industry took diesel off the table because the cost negates the MPG advantage. Anybody remember when diesel was cheaper? This one will sell like hotcakes as long as F executes.
    Nov 21, 2014. 02:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Independence Realty not budging from the lows after secondary [View news story]
    Thx for the encouraging words, Philip! The problem is secondaries and external management--or external interests. I am just beginning to sour on externally managed REITs due to the conflict of interest, especially after reading what happened at ARCP.
    Nov 21, 2014. 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Independence Realty not budging from the lows after secondary [View news story]
    Slam! RAS is ahead on the day because this should allow "more management fees to flow to" RAS? So, does IRT represent all shareholders or just the 28.2% at RAS? IRT plummets over 5% and RAS rallies--that tells who the market thinks they represent!
    Nov 20, 2014. 04:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment