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  • Carl Icahn posts open letter to Apple [View news story]
    Apple should generate 25-30Bn in cash flow in this quarter alone. A little more borrowing and they can buyback massive quantities of stock. As long as Mr. Market is giving the stock away, the company needs to buy it from him.
    Oct 9 09:43 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carl Icahn posts open letter to Apple [View news story]
    Agree, smart. Icahn is right and has been all along--Apple is grossly undervalued. The market is placing a huge discount on Apple shares. While he is pleased with mgmt in many respects, the deep market discount Apple carries isn't good and needs to be fixed. Well said, Carl.
    Oct 9 09:33 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The $200 Billion Question [View article]
    I agree with Sonic. We have a massive miscalc going on right now if rumors are close to being true on iP6 orders. Underestimation is right. Let's say China falls through, and the government outlaws the iPhone tomorrow. X-China phone sales, which are up 11% over last year's with-China numbers are more than enough to beat current estimates imo! The current analyst estimates for this quarter only call for a little under 10% growth for all of Apple (FY15Q1). I think ASPs on the phones will be up dramatically over last year's ~637, as the iP6 is $100 more than the 5C, and the iP6+ is $100 more than the 5S. Memory pricing changes will give a small boost, too. I think Q1 ASPs will be around 700, or up about 10%, but even if we halve that increase to 5%, or~669, an 11% increase in phone sales times 669 gives us about the entire ~10% for all of Apple that the analysts are predicting--X-China. Needless to say, the current estimates are way, way too low. That doesn't count any increase for any new or old products, and I suspect China will buy some phones, maybe a bunch.
    Oct 9 08:35 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple sends out invites for October 16 event [View news story]
    Well, I meant Apple TV, but really a powerful Ax version would basically be a Mac Mini that would run IOS. The interesting thing is that you could run it like a desktop, too.
    Oct 8 04:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple sends out invites for October 16 event [View news story]
    Tmig, I agree with you completely. Great phones, the best ever, but I don't see the watch and new phones as better than the original phone, iPad, and iPod. Cue does have a right to his own opinion, but I think there is either a big surprise coming next week, or we might have a totally separate press event for a new Apple TV. We'll see. It is possible that new Macs, coupled with the best iPads ever, swayed his opinion.
    Oct 8 04:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple sends out invites for October 16 event [View news story]
    I agree. There is so much they could do with the ATV. Basically, what you describe is an IOS based Mac Mini. I would love to see it. The rumor mill is pessimistic on this one, unfortunately.
    Oct 8 04:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple sends out invites for October 16 event [View news story]
    I vote for--time to update. Either Apple TV or the Mac Mini? Apple TV is long overdue, although I don't see it mentioned on any sites yet.
    Oct 8 04:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple sends out invites for October 16 event [View news story]
    NVDA is the one after them this time, not Apple.
    Oct 8 04:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung Is Sinking, While Apple Garners Robust Demand In China [View article]
    I was thinking the same thing, gotlife. If MB bought calls he is making some money off of Apple today...more to come if the Chinese numbers are half those in the article.
    Oct 8 02:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung Is Sinking, While Apple Garners Robust Demand In China [View article]
    I think it is worth reiterating three points: 1) - Apple has not followed its pattern this year. In fact, it has usually tracked opposite the normal pattern. The big sharks are getting eaten by bigger sharks this year. 2) - When you factor in the buyback, Apple hasn't yet gotten that close to the highs it set two years ago. It would need to go a bit over $110. 3) - Assuming 4MM total China sales in the first weekend, or less than half the amount mentioned by Michael in the article, Apple is up 100% from two years ago. Conclusion: Apple's business has grown tremendously, but the stock is lower than 2012.
    Oct 8 01:14 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung Is Sinking, While Apple Garners Robust Demand In China [View article]
    Channel fill for preordering customers?!?
    Oct 8 12:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung Is Sinking, While Apple Garners Robust Demand In China [View article]
    No, it won't be the first time Len, but 8.6MM preorders before Apple has even started taking orders? Apple "only" sold 10MM for the rest of the world in the first weekend. These are some large numbers folks are tossing around. That number was 5MM iP 5 models on the same footprint two years ago, so that is prolific growth. Apple sold 2MM iPhone 5 models in China two years ago. Do you really think China is growing that much faster than the rest of the world? It is possible, as China Mobile has a small planet's worth of subscribers who are now in the mix, but unlikely that Apple would move that many imo. We will see.
    Oct 8 12:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung Is Sinking, While Apple Garners Robust Demand In China [View article]
    Well, Applo, there is a possible short motive here. The way you create disappointment is to increase expectations. If everyone expects 10MM in first weekend sales, 5MM will be a big disappointment. 5MM is a blowout. 4MM will be a linear scaling from 2012 compared to the rest of the world. China Mobile wasn't in 2012, though, and that could cause higher numbers. If Apple sells anywhere close to 8.6MM phones in the whole first weekend it is the MOAB imho.
    Oct 8 11:58 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung Is Sinking, While Apple Garners Robust Demand In China [View article]
    Zipper, true, but he is pretty good sometimes, too. 8.6MM is a *huge* number. It would mean that China is bigger than the rest of the developed world for Apple! China Mobile has a lot of subscribers and this is their first combined rollout...but...I would love to believe it. I would have guessed maybe 5- 6MM for the whole first weekend--that is still a huge blowout.
    Oct 8 10:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung Is Sinking, While Apple Garners Robust Demand In China [View article]
    Michael, I guessed 8-10MM on the 5s, but that wasn't a blowout. The analysts don't seem to understand China's effect. Apple sold 5MM iP5 models on a similar footprint to the 6. They also announced 2MM first weekend sales in China that December. That made 7MM last year the number to beat for flat sales! Yet, analysts were predicting less. Assuming decent growth in China, iPhone sales were only up 10-20% last year at this same time. This year we have China Mobile's 750MM subscribers in the mix, and I do expect good growth. But, if they have 8.6MM preorders, 12-15MM first weekend sales would be a very conservative guess. Obviously, that would produce a *ridiculous* MOAB--mother of all blowouts in FY Q1, the quarter we are in right now! Could it be? Yes, but....I have to say, though, I really hope that is the case.
    Oct 8 10:54 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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