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  • Apple: Up, Up And Away [View article]
    Just tagging on to my discussion about price action--It is interesting to note that ~a month ago we were discussing the fact that Deutsche Bank *downgraded* Apple directly after the huge iPhone sales numbers were released, and that helped to move Apple down well below $100. Also, people were writing short Apple articles all the way down at $390 last year! One guy was arguing for the $200s; we are getting closer, but after a 7-1 split! I think we finally got to a higher valuation than late 2012 today. We are, at last, back to the same market cap as September 2012.
    Nov 13, 2014. 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Doubled My Position In American Realty Capital Properties Last Week [View article]
    Guppie, not quite right. Mgmt reduced AFFO guidance for next year to 1.11-1.14 *after* the sale of Cole Capital. $1.08 is the low end of their most current guidance, minus three cents. If they have significant revs from CC, obviously, the AFFO would likely go back up, not down. That doesn't price in any hit for their problems. And it doesn't price in problems on growth. Even if it dropped to around $1, market multiples are typically 15-20X. ARCP would still be about half price.
    Nov 13, 2014. 06:49 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Up, Up And Away [View article]
    I agree, Aussie. The iPad is going to sell very well at these prices. I think we will see the mini available at a number of retail outlets for $199! It becomes much more like an iPod decision at that price, and it is available to a lot more people. The performance of the A8X chip is remarkable. Apple's silence on this technology is odd. Every company would be marketing their prowess, if they had a technology as disruptive as Apple's A series chips--except Apple. The tech sites are just now figuring out basic info on the chip. The downside is that ASPs for iPads are going to drop, but it isn't a huge number anyway. The other big news moving this stock is the Watch. Digitimes is well connected to TSMC and they have just reported that Apple has ordered 30-40MM initial chip orders for the Watch, and that is going to volume production very soon. So, like Bill says--Valentine's Day is going to bring in a lot of revenue versus Easter. And, the ASP of the Watch is going to be much higher than expected because of the fashion dollars going into it. We may get a new TV soon, too, as Sony is rolling out their streaming service--you can bet they have a good idea of what Apple is up to. The big iPad and new 12 inch retina are coming next year, too. Apple is looking very, very strong.
    Nov 13, 2014. 05:27 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Up, Up And Away [View article]
    34% up would put Apple at par with many of the major averages. This melt-up was in the face of significant shorting and expectations for a pull-back, something Apple "always" does after Q4 earnings. The persistent rise indicates very broad buying strength. One could argue that the major averages are overvalued, though.
    Nov 13, 2014. 04:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Up, Up And Away [View article]
    >>Apple should have a blowout holiday season<<

    Agree. All the reports I am seeing say the 6+ is doing better than expected, and that is going to drive a very high ASP on the iPhone. The power of that number to drive the whole quarter is worth studying. At an ASP of ~$700, it will be hard for Apple to stay in the 60s--they will push $70Bn on iPhone growth alone. If the iPad falls off a lot that could help get us more toward guidance. The new CFO seems to be very conservative on his guidance, so I think they are aiming at just under 70Bn anyway. The real reason for the melt-up, though, imho is valuation. Ex-cash, Apple is still selling at a deep discount to many of the major averages. It is simply a value play at these depressed levels. Slap the same PE as the DJ Utilities average on it, and Apple sells for $155 this morning. If you are indexing, you are likely getting a lot more equity for your money buying Apple. Odd, but true.
    Nov 13, 2014. 04:40 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital: The Nick Schorsch REIT Empire Is Crumbling [View article]
    I don't think RCAP's stock would be as low if they hadn't pulled this maneuver--they are hurting themselves as much as ARCP. If the CEO wasn't lying last month when he said they were buying it for 9-10X EBITDA ($73MM/yr) it still makes good sense for them. IMO, they are adding to the drama.
    Nov 12, 2014. 05:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford: Finally Ready To Roll In 2015 [View article]
    Rockie, Ford is saying ~20% better gas mileage from last year on the Ecoboost on their website right now, so your dealer was probably mixed up. The other option would be that the V-8 gets almost 20% better MPG...doubt that, and it would be very positive if it did. I suspect we are looking at 26-27 on the highway with the small Eco.
    Nov 12, 2014. 04:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford: Finally Ready To Roll In 2015 [View article]
    I took a half position after the selloff, and my plan is to add if it drops to the 11-12 range (with no news). It has bounced a little, but you never know. I like the F150, but the sleeper is the new Mustang. The Ecoboost engine is supposed to give it late 60s, Mach 1 performance, and over 30MPG on the highway--quite an accomplishment. The divvy is very nice.
    Nov 12, 2014. 04:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital: The Nick Schorsch REIT Empire Is Crumbling [View article]
    I think the smartest thing RCAP could do is buy CC for the agreed terms, and then distance themselves from ARCP. Mr. S. can choose one or the other to be the head of the board (he can keep his stock if he wants). The cancellation is making RCAP's problem worse, not better. They had a great deal, paying for part of the purchase of CC with equity, not cash or debt. Apparently, like a nasty divorce, the leaders of RCAP have stopped thinking, and they are willing to blow up the whole floor to make their point. The lawyers will be the only winners here, too, probably. Exactly like the securities litigation! The lawyers are the only winners seems to be a phrase we hear a lot. Here is the analogy: a couple has a nasty divorce. They both have companies that they run, but the marriage cross-links the ownership. On divorcing, are they better to stay linked and fight it out in court, or are they better to buy the remaining parts of the separate and respective companies, so they can split up and move on. Much better to buy CC and just move on imo.
    Nov 12, 2014. 01:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty sues RCS Capital [View news story]
    The irony is that backing out of the deal keeps RCAP joined at the hip with ARCP, and it exposes them to litigation. Buying CC would have enabled them to quickly separate from ARCP. It appears to be a horrible decision by RCAP. I would kiss, make up, quickly buy CC, and separate ASAP.
    Nov 12, 2014. 07:11 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties Comments on Litigation it Filed Against RCS Capital Corporation [View article]
    The decision to attempt to back out of this contract appears to be a giant mistake by RCAP's Board. The cancellation will likely lose more than the value of buying Cole Capital, or IOW--they could buy CC for less than what this will cost them. Backing out of the deal exposes them to litigation (as we see), but more importantly it keeps them tightly bound to ARCP and will affect their business going forward. The smartest thing to do is buy CC and then distance themselves from ARCP. This would have blown over very quickly, regardless of the outcome at ARCP. The deal had ARCP taking a good bit of the payment in equity, too. There wasn't much cash. This is like watching a divorce, where the only winners are the lawyers.
    Nov 12, 2014. 07:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Doubled My Position In American Realty Capital Properties Last Week [View article]
    Is he friends with the Clintons? (:-o)
    Nov 10, 2014. 06:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Doubled My Position In American Realty Capital Properties Last Week [View article]
    Charlie, I might add that the difference we are talking about is ~3 cents AFFO. So, even if it docks them down to 1.08 or so (that assumes no revs from Cole Capital), that AFFO is priced at 15-20X by well run competitors. That is another common way of pricing REITs, for those who don't know. I agree with a discount, but how much? A dollar of dividend from ARCP spends exactly the same as O or NNN. My point is that talk about fire sales on assets almost certainly isn't applicable, and it could be very misleading; 1 Bn in AFFO in '15 is very applicable. Assuming Gov. Rendell is not lying and correct--that Mr. Market is making a mountain out of a molehill--ARCP is quite a buy at these deeply depressed prices.
    Nov 10, 2014. 01:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Doubled My Position In American Realty Capital Properties Last Week [View article]
    Thx for the quotes, Jack. I thought one of the more telling quotes was Gov. Rendell saying he thought the market was making a mountain out of a molehill. He also said that this doesn't involve the core of the company (a sideshow?), and it will be fine. I doubt the Gov would lie to protect anybody if there was any doubt in his mind about what went down. Maybe the FUDsters/shorts/compet... posting the hurricane of negative spin on ARCP think a former gov, the CEO, Ernst and Young, outside counsel, and all of the employees in the know are all in on the big lie? Maybe the mountain they are building is just a molehill in disguise. Mr. Market definitely seems to believe the FUDsters, as he has priced in a 50% dividend cut--almost 500MM/yr.
    Nov 10, 2014. 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rubicon Should Be Trading At A Discount To Cash [View article]
    I'm not sure the reader needs to go past the author being short RBCN on this one! I can't believe an SA author would suggest trading a company for cash and STI! Anybody want to sell Liam some AAPL for $5 a share? I wouldn't sell a company for cash if it was losing money, either.
    Nov 10, 2014. 07:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment