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Humble Eagles

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  • Apple At $525 A Share Would Be A Gift [View article]
    I agree with most of what has been said here. I fully expected Apple to raise guidance. They didn't. I see that as a negative because of the implications for Q2 guidance mostly. If they actually beat 1Q guidance, it will be a very clear statement from Apple that they like and are working for an unpredictable, high beta stock. We raise guidance one qtr for a few hundred million, but we don't the next quarter because we really like to shock the market and make the analysts look stupid! I just don't see them doing that, and I suspect we could have a big selloff when they hit 1Q numbers and miss 2Q guidance by a small amount. You never know with Apple, and if they are back in the business of promoting a bipolar market for AAPL the stock, we could see a beat and a huge move up because the market is discounting for what happened last year imho.
    Jan 10 11:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple At $525 A Share Would Be A Gift [View article]
    I don't see it dropping a huge amount either, but I do have to note that the price is starting to get eerily close to last year's. It was in the low 500s, then we had a good ER and decent guidance...within days it was in the 430s. I don't expect that, but...GLTA and being careful usually pays!
    Jan 10 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tech ratings change roundup: SAP, Glu Mobile, Ambarella, Veeco [View news story]
    Huge insider sales on GLUU; be careful. Anybody know what is going on?
    Jan 9 04:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Glu's GaaS Takes The Stock To New 52-Week Highs [View article]
    Brandon, thx for the work! Any worries about the recent and huge sales by key insiders? I have to wonder why they would be dumping hundreds of thousands of shares in the last few days if they had a reasonable idea that sales were going to be off the charts. They were automatic, but you know that song....
    Jan 9 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Moody's deals another blow to global gold miners [View news story]
    I have read so many emotional pleas for precious metals, both higher and lower, that it is almost comical. If Moody's predicted the huge rises in '09-10 I would be impressed. I would bet they didn't, though. If they predicted the big drop last year, then I would be equally impressed. Now they are predicting precious metals prices? When Moody's gets into "circling the carcass" mode, the bottom can't be too far off, can it? I can guarantee you I have no idea and I know it!! Maybe they will be right, but I would bet Gold will find a way to surprise us all. Could be $750, and it could be $1750. I think taking a small position here with the intent to add after another significant drop is a great way to average in...usually buying a drop of 60% produces great long term profits. Are we at S&P '08 or '09? Nobody knows!
    Jan 8 08:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron (MU): FQ1 beats by $0.33, beats on revenue [View news story]
    4X would be over 16Bn and $3 a share!! At the Nasdaq 100 PE of 21 MU would be selling for over $60 a share. I would say the standard memory cyclical implosion is already priced in MU! What a qtr! The funny thing is that a lot of these goofy, little to no profit internet and social media stocks are selling for 30-50X earnings. If MU were a social media memory company, it could be selling over $100!
    Jan 7 04:40 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cummins' 12-Liter Nat Gas Engine Will Power Clean Energy Fuels 20% Higher In 2014 [View article]
    I have been disappointed in my CLNE, but I have kept it. One other point worth making: when you look at the wholesale price difference it is even more pronounced. There is currently a lot of markup because you have to fund the infrastructure and pay for the gas. If we round up to 6MM BTUs for a barrel of oil, you can compare NG at about $27 right now, after the price increases! As NatGas becomes well distributed the retail price will likely reflect closer to the wholesale difference. I suspect Natgas would be cheaper to distribute, but that gets involved. It is cleaner, much cheaper, abundant, and drilled very close to the end user in many cases. I wish they would bring this to cars! Who wouldn't love to fill up for half the price you currently pay? It helps US GDP, trade balance, tax revs, and US jobs. Why the Congress hasn't incentivized NatGas already is criminal--to me it is *the* stupidest thing they haven't accomplished in the last ten years!
    Jan 7 04:17 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect An Upside Surprise From Intel On January 15th [View article]
    Cube, do you think BT at say, $20, will have the same margins as Haswell? If so, then I would agree, but if the margin on their $20 BT chip is lower than their average it will lower Intel's overall GMs. That is what I would expect. It is a small and fairly insignificant number at this point, but it takes on more significance if it displaces Core sales at a higher margin. I don't have time to research it, but I suspect QCOM probably gets a lot for their LTE solutions and I wouldn't think they would be big chips.
    Jan 3 05:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Can Bounce, But Buyers Be Patient [View article]
    rick, last qtr they raised on the 23rd of Sep, and the qtr ended on the 28th, I think. I expected it around Christmas, so I think we are getting a bit late for it, and thx, Atkins.
    Jan 3 02:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Can Bounce, But Buyers Be Patient [View article]
    Well, the precedent is that they hit guidance by performance or by raising every qtr since that CC statement of change by the CFO! 100% accurate so far. They just exceeded by .4Bn last qtr, so that is pretty close to even require a raise, but they did. If they exceed this qtr, it will definitely be considered a return to no transparency and sandbagging by analysts. I agree that they don't have to do anything. But, I think they will pay dearly in the future if they don't maintain past practices. Their credibility will be damaged imo. If they are sandbagging and blowing out again it will be great for options and daytraders, but it hurts shareholders who like stable prices.
    Jan 3 01:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Can Bounce, But Buyers Be Patient [View article]
    duck, that works until they happen to hit guidance and the stock will crash. The problem with sandbagging is that Apple trains analysts to compensate. Then you end up with unrealistic numbers, which they miss, and the stock tanks. Go back and read the CFO's comments from a few qtrs back on the subject. They really wanted to stop the unrealistic estimates. The only way to do that is to provide accurate guidance with updates. This may hurt this week, but it would have been a lot worse after earnings. If Apple is back in sandbag and surprise mode, it will be great this qtr, but hell to pay in the future when analysts go back to compensating for Apple's lack of transparency. Just look at this as preselling Apple hitting guidance. My own analysis tells me that if Apple hits guidance this qtr, they will have trouble making next qtr's current estimates. That could lead the crazies to sell it back into the 400s.
    Jan 3 12:49 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Can Bounce, But Buyers Be Patient [View article]
    Funny how we all have theories on when and why it moves...I think it went up in anticipation of the CHL deal and a strong qtr. It sold off because of doubt about CHL. It then surged back when the CHL deal was announced. I think it is going down for one big reason: they didn't raise guidance. Traders are looking ahead to earnings and just hitting this quarter's guidance is bad in their minds. Apple expanded the rollout footprint massively this qtr, intro'd a lot of new products, and even added DCM. Just having a single digit increase means growth has flatlined. CHL may not be enough to bring growth next qtr because the rollout schedule was advanced so much compared to last year. If Apple has changed their policy they set several qtrs ago of guiding to a range, and they blow the qtr out, it will take off. The problem is, most people don't think they will abandon that policy and mislead WS and analysts by sandbagging like they used to do. Traders are handicapping my down scenario imo. As the author points out, it could produce a great long term entry point. The risk is if they blew it out and decided to kill their transparency policy. Selling it is a big loser.
    Jan 3 12:12 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect An Upside Surprise From Intel On January 15th [View article]
    Intel is still cheap; that is positive. But, there are a lot of negatives. The biggest is that BT is a viable CPU and Intel intends to sell/subsidize 60MM (if you believe the rumors) this year to compete with the millions of ARM derivatives out there in the wild. The bottom line is that CPU number crunching is being commoditized like most other electronics. Intel can win, but at much lower margins and profits. Intel would still be a good covered call play imo--keep the divvy and the premium and keep the stock in a sideways to declining market. Sounds like the best time to sell calls might be after CES and before earnings when the premiums are up--GLTA.
    Jan 3 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iTV Will Boost Apple [View article]
    My own personal experience shows this market is changing rapidly. I bought a Samsung 40" LCD about 5 years ago for a bit less than $1500. It failed just out of warranty and would have been $450 to fix. I called Samsung and they told me (in so many words) go cry on Best Buy's shoulder, they would do nothing--not even a 10% off coupon. So, I went to Best Buy and cried on their shoulder and they tried to stick me with another Samsung, which I politely refused. I bought a Toshiba 40" LED with an extended warranty for less than the price of the Samsung and about $700 total. Now, a nice 1080P 40" Toshiba or LG is about $400. I just don't see Apple trying to go there. The trend is bad and I don't see people paying over $1000 for an iTV unless it can print money, make coffee, and clean your house for you. BTW, the Toshiba LED TV has been fantastic.
    Jan 2 10:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wedge Partners offers cautious China Mobile iPhone estimates [View news story]
    I wonder if Jun really meant a million phones by next week instead of next year?
    Dec 30 08:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment