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  • American Airlines Is On Track To Save $5 Billion Fuel Costs In 2015 [View article]
    Very well written summation, Carly! Even Julie's numbers should leave any disinterested investor scratching his or her head. 10.80 a share this year, the stock is selling for less than 5 times that amount and you downgrade it? Bob's numbers are perfect in my view. Conservative, at less than 10X earnings, but not afraid to call the sea change in airlines. They are now, and have been, perhaps the best investment of any sector in the US markets. BTW, Mr. Market hates airlines. It is so bad, they can't even support an ETF! If we don't get a disaster, air transpo should remain at the top of my list. GLTA.
    Jan 29, 2015. 02:57 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Patriots Couldn't Even Deflate This Quarterly Result [View article]
    Bill, I think analysts were heavily trained by Maestri's predecessor that Apple would hit their range. After two blowouts in a row, and especially considering the FX effect, analyst estimates will go way above the top end, just like they used to do. I also think Maestri guides very conservatively, so 57-59 are about the real numbers. I come up with ~2.25. Also, they bought back a lot of shares and should keep that up. A lot of people mistakenly use the weighted average for last quarter, rather than the ending share count. That is the starting point for the new weighted average. I figure Apple will be sitting on ~$30-31Bn, and ~$5.25 after two quarters of FY 15! They only made a total of $5.48/sh in all of FY 13! EPS are exploding higher. And this year, for the first in many years, will have new products before the fall, indeed new categories. Great call on the ASPs, BTW. The currencies drug it down. GLTA.
    Jan 29, 2015. 08:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: The Perfect Storm - With Tailwinds - For American Airlines [View article]
    ctrav, why just $38? AAL should only make about $12 a share this year. 3 times earnings is pretty rich, don't you think? That multiple would also put Apple down to $27, Boeing down to $25, the S&P 500 should drop to 330 with that multiple, or less than half the price it was selling for at the 2009 lows. Makes perfect sense.
    Jan 29, 2015. 08:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, We're Not Worthy [View article]
    Rumors are that Samsung will use a quad core A57 setup for the S6 in 14nm Finfet. We'll see. Should be very similar to QCOM's chip, only faster. It should outperform the A8, as it will be a node ahead. The big problems for Samsung have seldom included hardware specs, and it won't this summer either. Apple's integration of their software and customer service via their stores and warranties make the difference. If you have problems with an iPhone, you can take it to a store and they fix it for free during your two year contract if you have AppleCare. Samsung doensn't have that capability. Android is a fragmented nightmare. Samsung needs to come up with their own OS imo.
    Jan 28, 2015. 09:46 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Longer-Term Headwinds Make Blowout Quarter A Tough Act To Follow [View article]
    rich, I love these proclamations. Do you remember proclaiming, with the same authority, that Apple's profits would be flat for three more years? You said it right after the rollout of the 6/6+ about four months ago, among other times. So, how did you do? EPS were up 50%! A small part of that was the buyback. But, they also guided way up this quarter. I am dialing up $2.25 for this quarter, but that is probably low. They should be over 30Bn for the first two quarters alone! Lots of new iStuff on the way. That doesn't include any new products, like the Watch, which rolls next qtr. Good luck with your predictions. I would throw in an occasional imho....
    Jan 28, 2015. 09:10 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: American Airlines Q4 2014 Earnings [View article]
    mur, at the very least, it is another object lesson on the dangers of left wing, socialist politicians. Venezuela may never recover. They all sound so good when they are talking about helping poor people and taxing the rich. Kind of like when a duck gets called into decoys--the next thing he knows...
    Jan 28, 2015. 08:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple beats estimates, guides in-line [View news story]
    >>So over time "doing it all" will prove to be a disadvantage for Apple.
    PS: Nobody has contradicted my claim that the BlackBerry Passport is more innovative than the iPhone6. I take that as silent agreement.<<

    TS, You could be right, but right now you appear to be very wrong; Apple's vertical integration and engineering seem to be working very well--nobody can compete with them, not even Samsung. I've never seen a Passport or read a good review. How many did they sell last quarter? We can compare how customers around the world voted on the matter.
    Jan 28, 2015. 08:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple beats estimates, guides in-line [View news story]
    >> Apple's stellar earnings are the result of many factors that are unlikely to occur again,<<

    TS, actually phones are a necessary and repetitive business, as are tablets and computers. How you come up with the sweeping proclamation that Apple will never sell this many computers again is bizarre, to borrow from Gregg. But then I saw why: the dreaded BBRY connection. BTW, 777s are replaced on a 30-40 year cycle. Maybe you are new to this stuff, but Apple actually designs most of their own CPUs and they design systems and they design programs and OS's. Intel does chips, but they don't do too many systems. MSFT does software, but not too many systems, outside of a few tablets and gaming systems. HP does systems, but not a lot of processors. Apple is one of the few that can do it all. On the BA comparison, if you will look back it was in the context of how much the market is paying for the earnings. A lot of people value stocks based on their earnings stream. Apple's earnings stream and cash are very, very cheap.
    Jan 28, 2015. 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple beats estimates, guides in-line [View news story]
    Price to earnings is deeply discounted to the major averages, but....Apple grew revs ~30%, earnings grew ~50% last qtr. A great illustrative comparison is Boeing. They released earnings this AM and should have similar earnings on the year. They made $2.02 GAAP and $2.31 before special charges. BA is rising through $140. Apple made over $3. Apple has over 100Bn more in cash. The major indexes are mostly even more expensive than BA. BA reported 5Bn in operating cash flow, Apple 33Bn. Apple, ex-cash, is amazingly cheap compared to boring, low growth stocks. For companies that are growing revs higher than double digits, it is a steal.
    Jan 28, 2015. 02:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple +7.6%; Street applauds iPhone sales, China growth [View news story]
    That is a huge number, but I'm inclined to agree, Cats, especially if we say $10 per ending share count.
    Jan 28, 2015. 01:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A REIT With Significant Exposure To Texas And Oil-Producing States: Short EastGroup Properties [View article]
    I remember the oil bust in the 80s. I was overweight anything tied to Texas last year, and I sold it--SBSI, UDF and several others. Might be overboard, but so far I am very happy.
    Jan 28, 2015. 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, We're Not Worthy [View article]
    gpal, I disagree. The one thing Apple is on their silicon is competitive. Fiercely so, in fact. They stay out in front, and they know that is a key factor in sales. We both know that the average consumer can't see 20%, but the marketing aspects of saying they are the best matter. Because they control every part of their systems, though, the final integrated result is what will matter.
    Jan 28, 2015. 01:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: American Airlines Q4 2014 Earnings [View article]
    Fox, I think $12 is a better guess if oil stays at this level, but what if it goes even lower? AAL said they should get about $7 a share (over 5Bn) in tailwinds with current oil pricing. $10 is probably more realistic if oil rises back to the 60-70 range. There are just so many other positives, though. New planes, low rates, low debt costs, extra cash to upgrade the system...AAL is primed to soar imo.
    Jan 28, 2015. 12:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: The Perfect Storm - With Tailwinds - For American Airlines [View article]
    Salient points: they made $5.70 last year before specials, and they said the Jan 22 oil price would save a bit over 5Bn this year, or right at $7/sh. Let's discount that to $12/sh. First, everybody seems to be betting and thinking this won't happen. What if they are all wrong and oil prices stay here or go down further? American has paid down their high cost debt, updated their fleet to the newest of any carrier, and they are updating their facilities, and the older planes they are keeping. If oil stays reasonable for a couple of years, I think AAL could easily see triple digits. It is all a question of when the market realizes the value.
    Jan 28, 2015. 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, We're Not Worthy [View article]
    Yes, they blew out both of the last two quarters, so the guidance is actually very strong when you multiply by the new CFO/Maestri factor (1.1X). Kuo nailed this one, and I expect Apple to enter the CPU fray, too. They won't enter it until they can substantially outperform Intel's chips, so if they can't do that, they will probably stay with Intel, but I expect ye ole PA Semi team already has working prototypes. This will help margins or increase market share or both. The best place to start would be Apple TV! It could be like a Mac Mini, only running IOS. Assuming it outperformed a Core 7, games, apps, TV, Stereo, and home control could be controlled from the ATV/home computer. They could go a lot of different ways with this. AAPL is a steal at these prices.
    Jan 28, 2015. 12:36 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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