Seeking Alpha

Humble Eagles

Humble Eagles
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Humble Eagles' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Apple's Insurmountable Lead Over Commodity ARM Processors [View article]
    Cincy, you made some good points, and I might be tempted to buy your argument, but there are several problems. The first is that Apple shrunk the batteries and they are still pretty close on total life. So, they are getting this performance with very low wattage, maybe 1-2W on the TDP. Most of the Android phones have much larger batteries, but the endurance usually lags Apple's. It is hard to know how much is the CPU, I will agree. How long would the 15W Intel chip last with a 6.5 Whr battery? Second, the i5 Haswell 15W chip in the SP 3 still manages to lose or come pretty close on a couple of tests. I would expect Intel's chip to be much, much better across the board. I would have expected Atom chips to beat Apple like this, not Core chips from last year! And that from an avowed Intel fan through the years. Finally, because of the exponential increase in chip performance through the years, everyone who had a mainstream desktop in the 80s or 90s was using a chip with weaker performance than the A9 in a desktop. I would have to study it to figure out at what point in the past they were roughly equal. You might be shocked, particularly when you consider graphics. Apple got over 80FPS on the 1080P TRex offscreen test. The Haswell laptop chip only got 64FPS! Either would have been great 10 years ago. If they designed a chip with 20-30 times the TDP of the A9, I think it would do fine. I detailed above why they might not want to do that.
    Sep 29, 2015. 07:46 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Insurmountable Lead Over Commodity ARM Processors [View article]
    Somebody pointed out the scale on another thread, Bill. 20-30MM Macs; 300MM IOS devices. The A series has the scale to make it worthwhile. I agree they could easily replace Intel if they wanted to--could happen in a couple of weeks. I think they ought to start producing IOS laptops and desktops, offering both lines concurrently. It is integrated with OSX and would be a very low risk way to do it. If you look at the Pro, it really is a laptop in a tablet already. It would be easy to offer an IOS desktop in the Mac mini footprint (very cheaply), and I think Millennials would buy them by the tens of millions, since they know IOS much better than basic manners!!
    Sep 29, 2015. 06:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Insurmountable Lead Over Commodity ARM Processors [View article]
    PA Semi was Apple's best purchase ever, and that is what is ironic about the Jobs is dead and so is Apple talk. Apple (under Jobs) bought something that would end up being more important to Apple than Jobs. Intel or QCOM could have saved megabillions by buying them. The people that don't appreciate their CPUs are in denial imho.
    Sep 29, 2015. 06:47 PM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Dividend Increase For New Residential [View article]
    AA, thx for the article. They own mostly distressed RE loans/MSRs with an avg LTV of ~89%? Correct? As long as we don't have a melt-down it could work out, but what if we have a melt-down? Wouldn't this be an *exceptionally* risky security in a deep residential real estate correction? I'm doing my best to figure them out.
    Sep 29, 2015. 02:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Record opening weekend iPhone sales [View news story]
    capsand, Apple is thumping the index YTD and most of the timeframes you look at, too. Not sure what you are looking at....
    Sep 28, 2015. 10:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Record opening weekend iPhone sales [View news story]
    vomit, 10 in last year's rollout footprint + 2.8 in China + .2 in NZ = 13, which is ~flat with last year. I'm an Apple bull, but even bulls need to accept the facts. First weekend sales have been a decent proxy in the past. If you want to get excited about something ask yourself why Apple changed their longstanding practice of giving the iPhone full billing in September. They spent a ton of time talking about multiple iPads, accessories and Apple TV. Doesn't that make you wonder why they appear to have cleaned off the schedule for October? Maybe they have changed their MO, but perhaps not....
    Sep 28, 2015. 07:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple : The Road To An ARMv8-A Based Product Stack And Higher Growth [View article]
    TechResearch, I think you make some solid points. I have no doubt that Apple could do it. The question is if they want to, and when will they do it. Anandtech put up the 15W i5 Haswell in the Surface Pro 3 for perspective against the A9. A phone chip from Apple and a laptop chip from Intel. It will be interesting to see how close they get on the A9X. I have been wondering why Apple introduced everything in September. That is very unlike them because they like the extra PR/free ad time. I have been wondering if they have something really big coming in October!
    Sep 28, 2015. 05:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Record opening weekend iPhone sales [View news story]
    charls, I wasn't complaining. Where did you get that idea? I was arguing that it will still be good. Not as good as last year for growth, but still a solid year.

    Cincy, my point was that the big jump in ASPs was over the phones intr'od in '13 and it was because of price points, which I argued last year. The screens (and other factors) are the reason the units went up imo. You could argue that the popularity drove pricing, I suppose, but the reason the ASP was increased was because of the memory tiers/pricing that changed in FY14(13 intro), and also the mix in pricing for the Plus model. I think it will be even more noticeable this year. The average iPhone price went up a bit under 10%, but that was mitigated by FX. And, I don't think we will see a huge jump this year either, but over the last two years it is very significant, aggregate. So, iPhone price in the last two model years, or since the phones intro'd back in '13. My bad on the three year comment. The bottom line is that they should have a solid 1Q on revs and profits.
    Sep 28, 2015. 03:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Record opening weekend iPhone sales [View news story]
    Cincy, Remember the ASP goes down as the year goes by. That is normal. The key is that the mix is going up YOY. The 16GB issue is a trending story and it is getting a lot of press, actually. 16Gb is pretty worthless now; many Apple watchers were predicting they would jump to 32GB min. You can read the reviews, but the extra memory for everything--especially live photos and higher resolution videos and such, makes 64GB a must-have minimum. I think it is a legitimate criticism of Apple. They are forcing people to pay more with this move. That was also true true last year to some extent, but it wasn't as big of an issue back in 2013 when the 5S was introduced. That was one of the strong drivers in last year's huge jump, but it will grow this year again. Also, there was only one year-old phone last year--the 5s. This year sees two and the average price is about $50 more than the 5S of last year. So, the two year old phones will cost about the same, the one year olds will be about $50 more (plus memory jumps), and the new phones will be a little more for the higher memory tiers. For those reasons, ASPs should be higher. Discounting the FX headwinds, I think we will be just over $700 in Q1, and it will drop like it always does as the year goes by. I don't see any way (outside of some disaster) that ASPs will go down.
    Sep 28, 2015. 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple : The Road To An ARMv8-A Based Product Stack And Higher Growth [View article]
    Zed, I think that is unlikely (on your A9X supposition). Anandtech has already validated the tremendous performance of the DC A9, and battery life is still good to great. I say that because Apple actually shrunk the battery size on the 6S/6S Plus. So, they are getting the performance and battery life with a smaller battery. So the TDP of the A9 is likely very modest. If the A9X were to scale to a much higher TDP than the A9, then this would be atypical. Still possible, but they haven't done that in the past. I would also expect huge performance gains if Apple takes that route. They have proven they are incredibly good at CPU design, so if they triple or quadruple the TDP of the A9, I suspect the iPad Pro will be shockingly good.
    Sep 28, 2015. 01:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple : The Road To An ARMv8-A Based Product Stack And Higher Growth [View article]
    Zipp, good points. I wonder if Apple's FCF will be close to that next qtr alone? I think the real key with the Pro is that it is likely previewing what is ahead for iPads in general, and it already appears pretty laptop-like. I have to admit I thought Wintel would deliver the death blow to ARM, but they have foolishly fussed over mobile to the detriment of the Wintel ecosystem. They could wake up, but I don't see any evidence yet. They are happy to maintain as much of the status quo as they can because they are still making billions. Meanwhile ARM keeps gaining on them...
    Sep 28, 2015. 01:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple : The Road To An ARMv8-A Based Product Stack And Higher Growth [View article]
    Just looking at the preliminary numbers on Anandtech this AM, and the A-9 is another homerun from PA semi. Unbelievable really. I can't wait to see what the A-9X will do. They already have a chip that can easily run a laptop, but with a phone TDP!! The easiest thing to do, imo, would be to make IOS more robust (they have done that a little), along with more robust apps, and simply offer IOS desktops and laptops. Millennials are more comfortable with IOS than anything out there--already. It is also already integrated with the Intel based Macs. No conflict with Intel or anybody, you just put them out and see what sells.
    Sep 28, 2015. 12:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Record opening weekend iPhone sales [View news story]
    Cincy, a couple of reasons. 16GB is more worthless than ever, much like an 8GB phone from 3-4 years ago. More customers will have to jump to larger flash models and that drives ASPs aggressively. The other factor is that this is the first year that they will have two new models in the new segment and two in the one year old segment, and the one year old 6 plus is the same price as a new 6S. The average price of iPhones has risen sharply over the last three years. The plus model, like the memory, is mostly profit--very little extra cost. FX will continue to be a headwind, so the net effect won't be huge. My guess is about $700. Two things make the sales numbers difficult this year--the faster rollout schedule, and the break in the quarter over this last weekend. We may get more sales shoved into the 1Q, which could end up getting them out of my top end by a few million. I thought 80-85MM based on production estimates before I saw this number. An ASP of $700 and low 80s on units would give them ~10% revenue growth YOY for 1Q. Flat sales of 75MM (which would really be down because of the issues mentioned above) would still give them single digit growth with higher ASPs.
    Sep 28, 2015. 12:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Record opening weekend iPhone sales [View news story]
    Sales are flat with last year when you factor China and NZ. 70-80MM phones in the holiday qtr appears perfect. The bad news for bears is that this has been more than discounted already. With ASPs going up and the buyback taking effect, Apple is selling for about 10-11X next year's earnings (if we assume flat sales) with a 50% credit for net cash. Apple is much cheaper than the market indexes even with a flat year. Apple is way, way cheaper than the high flyers. GLTA.
    Sep 28, 2015. 11:28 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New iPhone 6s hits stores Friday [View news story]
    I think sometimes Apple is a victim of their own excellent design--their products can last a long time. I went in to check out the phones at my very close Apple store and they are nice. They look identical to last year, but once it starts thumping you the difference is noticeable. I liked the phones, but I made the mistake of playing with the new Mini 4--that is what I left the store wanting!
    Sep 25, 2015. 05:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment