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  • Apple And Wearable Devices: Moving From A Want To A Need By 2020 [View article]
    Good article, for Matt; very good synopsis imo. Michael, the best lines I saw in the reviews: the Watch is elegantly designed and a solution in search of a problem to solve! It just doesn't do that much that is useful, and apparently it can be annoying. If you think about the phone, it replaces so many gadgets: cameras, phone, recording device, calendar/organizer, etc. Apple Pay could be the biggest enabler on the Watch. When the Watch gets its own radios, so you don't need your phone, that will be a trip wire. Better battery life, so it can monitor sleep would be popular, too. I think fashion and the Cult effect will move several million. And Apple isn't going to release actual numbers (I'm sure they will somehow if it is a blockbuster), so the PR team will make Watch an incredible success regardless of the sales numbers. Apple is still a phone story, though. Make no mistake. If they have another blowout qtr, the Watch just doesn't matter on the financials.
    Apr 9, 2015. 06:55 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Good Business That Is Still On Sale [View article]
    Very well written article! I would add that there has been a huge increase in short sales during the same time frame of that 50% run up. If CBI takes out >10MM shares, the ~13MM shares short are going to need a lot of bad news to avoid a big squeeze. Also, I want to point out that CBI knew there were some problems when they bought Shaw. Being an engineering firm, I suspect they studied it pretty hard before pulling the trigger. The nuke issues are indeed an opportunity. Nobody has built a reactor here in a very long time.
    Apr 9, 2015. 01:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Airlines Group Is A Buy, And I'll Tell You Why [View article]
    Bobcat, interesting and readers shouldn't miss an important point: that is $1 dollar in oil prices per barrel, not $1 in jet fuel prices! It is about $360-$370 million a month for each dollar in jet fuel prices, or a little over .50 cents a share per month.
    Apr 9, 2015. 01:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: FedEx To Buy TNT Express For €4.4B [View article]
    Tony, interesting comments! Most of the European ETFs are getting ready to have a nice golden cross, with 50dmas over the 200dma, and some have already made it, like EWG. But, what interests me is remembering we are looking at translated prices. When you discount currency changes, pretty much every European ETF is showing the cross with exceptional strength. Europe is starting to look very strong technically across the board.
    Apr 7, 2015. 08:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Airlines Group Is A Buy, And I'll Tell You Why [View article]
    All very solid points, Harm! I think airlines are an opportunity because of their past. Mr. Market is putting on the standard airline discount, which few of us question. The legacy carriers were hit with a multitude of problems in the last 15 years, and I don't think they will be duplicated. If they normalize to a more rational and profitable position, I think the long term valuation will go up. 5 times forward earnings is a bit extreme in my view. Still, they are airlines, so I would never bet the lower 40 acres on them, much less the whole farm.
    Apr 7, 2015. 07:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Airlines Group Is A Buy, And I'll Tell You Why [View article]
    I agree with you on AAL, Harm, but I still like Hawaiin! I look at hedging fuel like hedging a portfolio. It only works when you are right. Otherwise, it costs you more money to hedge. So, airline execs are great oil price speculators? In a sideways or down market they lose. I don't like a bet where you lose on two out of three options. AAL is my top airline pick, but I like pairing them with energy. That is a way of hedging, but the companies can still grow in a sideways market, unlike the hedges. Aloha.
    Apr 7, 2015. 06:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge & Iron Company Is Set To Deliver Growing Shareholder Value In The Years Ahead [View article]
    This is such a boring (to most investors) company. I owned it for years and absolutely nothing was ever said about CBI on SA. One thing none of the authors that I am aware of have mentioned: CBIs growth has been nothing short of phenomenal. It has come organically and through purchases, but they have grown about 10X since the market crash and recovery in the early 00s. They are becoming the total chemical/energy engineering company. Try to find a hot biotech or tech company that has grown 10X in that tough period. It isn't easy. They have grown mostly because they have great engineering, not creative accounting.
    Apr 7, 2015. 06:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FedEx to buy TNT Express for €4.4B [View news story]
    Brilliant move on FDX's part. When you figure the drop in the Euro, FDX is paying less than half what UPS offered in dollars. TNT shareholders are still only getting about 60% of the price UPS offered them in Euros (If I'm reading that right). If I were the EU, I would open the bidding back up, as this is unfair to TNT shareholders and UPS. Try to let UPS bid it back up, and then negotiate the antitrust issues. This is a great example of the effect of the lowered Euro--Europe is on sale, with stocks, companies, products of all sorts, and tourist destinations 25% off. I'm bullish on Europe for the first time in a very long time.
    Apr 7, 2015. 05:46 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is It So Difficult To Keep Investing Simple? [View article]
    All great advice beryl and BoomCBoom. I like noting that while nobody knows where the market is going, we do know where it has been. Bargains can usually be defined better that way. The large correction situation doesn't come up that often, and I have waited years for a correction and not gotten it, and then I didn't want it (tech in the 90s).
    Apr 6, 2015. 09:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Germany's Trade Surplus Is A Problem [View article]
    I'm certainly no economist, but how about a German export tax, from which Germany draws to update infrastructure? That has the benefit of Mr. Bernanke's option 1, but it also makes exports a little less competitive--immediately. But, Germany is the beneficiary from the tax. It seems to me that the Euro is priced for the Med countries, and this would help to balance their competitiveness with minimal pain for Germany (as opposed to direct aid by one means or another). It isn't free market, but it might help to avoid more Greek tragedies in the near future.
    Apr 6, 2015. 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is It So Difficult To Keep Investing Simple? [View article]
    RS, love the approach and articles! One of my grandfathers passed away about 55 years ago. I found out much later that grandma bought a bunch of quality stocks in the 60s and she just kept them. Through the horrible selloffs and corrections that inevitably hit along the way she stayed the course. It turns out grandma was a pretty good stock picker (she had some help at the outset), but she ended up being a great investor. I didn't find out a lot of the details until after she passed away. Wonderful lady, but she didn't talk about money. Anyway, it seems to me that intelligent and vigilant people are often too scared to stay invested. That is one reason the race often doesn't go to the swift, nor the investing crown to the highest IQ. Getting out before big selloffs is brilliant. The problem is that few, if any, can do this consistently. I get tickled when I see people make pronouncements on what the future holds. If I have to call heads or tails, at least know I'm guessing. GLTA.
    Apr 4, 2015. 05:50 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge & Iron Company Is Set To Deliver Growing Shareholder Value In The Years Ahead [View article]
    Interesting info on nuke fab, Gregg! Any links, or is that proprietary? I agree that CBI was very intentional in buying Shaw, and that it helps to make them the 800# gorilla of energy/chemical engineering and fab work. Sometimes the story glosses over the meat and potatoes to get to the accounting, which ~75% of us (me included) don't fully comprehend. About 99% of us don't understand the nuclear engineering, so I guess the accounting is easier than that. These two plants are the first in a generation or so--there definitely isn't much experience sitting around doing nothing. CBI's is in a great position, as new technology and methods, along with nuke's zero carbon impact, could make it very popular over the next 40 years.
    Apr 3, 2015. 08:53 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge & Iron Company Is Set To Deliver Growing Shareholder Value In The Years Ahead [View article]
    I come up with a hair under 30% for 11-14, 4 years. Mssr, I think the growth does count. Whether they acquire it or grow it organically, it is still growth. There have been a lot of critics on the Shaw purchase, but they bought them for about half the price of their 6Bn in revenues--50% of their sales. I think they got a discount because of the problems. CBI bought them as a turn-around play, and the shorts came in trying to drag CBI down with the known problems at Shaw. They did a pretty good job, as CBI lost almost two thirds of its value. I think that was grossly overdone and the turn-around is going fairly close to what CBI expected. It is a fast breaking game, though. CBI is a great engineering firm, and that is the key to remember imho. GLTA.
    Apr 3, 2015. 04:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will The New Tesla Product Be And How Much Will It Cost? Here's My Best Guess [View article]
    I have a small total electric house, and 60-85 would get me through about a day--that is a $220 bill at .12 per KWH. 10 is a pretty big battery, and it would keep everything going for an hour or two at my house.
    Apr 2, 2015. 04:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will The New Tesla Product Be And How Much Will It Cost? Here's My Best Guess [View article]
    Paulo, great article! I am not so sure about that. It just depends on how many panels you have tied in. If you could generate enough to run the fridge and AC for a few hours each, it would be very useful in long term outages. Also, simple surge protection costs around $10 a month from power companies. (Rip-off city, but that is the price). If Tesla has the automatic grid disconnect for over/under, I might seriously consider this product. I would never consider their cars.
    Apr 2, 2015. 04:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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