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Humble Eagles

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  • Apple: A Reversal Of Fortune Seems Inevitable [View article]
    OTOH mag, I might look at an opposing viewpoint. The installed base of phones and potential user base have exploded for Apple in the last couple of years. I have seen multiple rumors "from the supply chain" saying Apple has ordered 70-80 MM iP6s for CY 14, which is more like 40-50% growth! One estimate I saw recently was 200MM upgrades alone! You have to look at the upgrade cycle. Also, Apple stock has gone into Saturn 5 mode after new product categories of the past. Rumors are again popping that they have not one, but *multiple* new categories, on the way over the next six months. Michael was making the exact same argument when Apple was selling in the 50s (equiv) a few months ago. I tried to warn him, and he wouldn't give up on his short thesis for any reason or reasoning. Comparing Apple and Blackberry is like saying that what happened to AMD is happening to Intel. They are very different situations. Between the huge cash flow and buy back and the strong overall growth, Apple is still priced like a cheap value stock, yet it has started another strong growth phase. Take a look around at the multiples and you will realize there are few quality NSDQ stocks that are cheaper. GLTA.
    Aug 9 05:23 AM | 32 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China refutes Apple procurement report; USPTO rejects patent claims [View news story]
    OTOH, it got shot down very quickly. The nice thing about SA is that you can disagree. I pointed it out very quickly, and even though the articles kept coming, they were invalidated immediately. It also shows that some of the authors are little like sharks at the smell of blood. Helps to know who is basing their opinion on emotions...
    Aug 8 03:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China refutes Apple procurement report; USPTO rejects patent claims [View news story]
    Bloomberg has some good info, but they have quite a history of getting Apple stories wrong. Days before Jobs rolled out the iPad 2, they ran a story saying it was likely delayed by months! It had interesting data and some inside sources to boot. They were totally wrong, and it became apparent a few days later when the invites went out. I think Apple likes making the financial press look stupid if they don't beg from Cupertino like good seals are supposed to.
    Aug 8 03:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • After China's Government Bans Purchases Of Apple Devices, Is BlackBerry In Catbird Seat? [View article]
    No, I would say there is no change on the playing field. This is just another case of bad reporting and then bad echoes coming from it.
    Aug 7 08:39 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After China's Government Bans Purchases Of Apple Devices, Is BlackBerry In Catbird Seat? [View article]

    False alarm...there is no ban. Bloomberg can be terribly inaccurate at times. I remember when they ran an article stating the iPad 2 was delayed by months...Apple sent out the invites a couple of days later.
    Aug 7 08:16 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REIT Conversions Offer Valuable Clues As To The Strength Of This Bedrock Asset Class [View article]
    I agree, Brad! Here is a big problem with these boutique spin-offs: many aren't diversified at all. If McDonalds spins off their real estate, they will likely get a lower price because people want diversification, and they want real estate pros (without a conflict of interest) managing the assets. It could produce some conversions, but there are no free lunches--the best companies will excel and the gimmicks will fade or get bought out at a discount. Apparently, a lot of people are unaware that taxes are much higher on REIT dividends! When you consider that most REIT dividends are often paid well beyond net profits, some REITs may pay more end game taxes to the IRS than LLCs. It certainly isn't a tax avoidance scheme in most cases. There will always be exceptions.
    Aug 7 07:48 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple roundup: Chinese government, schools, UBS estimates [View news story]
    Sounds like China is discrediting the "ban."
    Aug 6 07:57 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese Restricting Of Apple, Microsoft And Symantec Are Harbingers Of Reduced Growth [View article]
    Sounds like this was based on misleading information anyway:
    Aug 6 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese Restricting Of Apple, Microsoft And Symantec Are Harbingers Of Reduced Growth [View article]
    I can remember when jeans were restricted there many years ago--it just made Chinese consumers want them more.
    Aug 6 09:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's iPad Is Floundering [View article]
    Just look back and you will see that this is the same thing many were saying about the iPhone a couple of years ago--it's a commodity, Apple's share and margins will drop, etc. Sounded good, but it didn't happen. I doubt it on iPad, either. I think there is a much better possibility that Apple will lower the price on the Mac and increase to iPad/iPhone share.
    Aug 4 03:54 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties: 8% Yield Play Gains Traction [View article]
    I bought some 11 Jans, but I just wanted to lock in the price to add later. Calls are very cheap because you miss the divvy and the seller gets it in addition to your premium. I think Bret's call on REITs is worth noting. I thought the same thing in December, and I agree now. Many of the high quality REITS are just too expensive imo. If we get a rise in rates, they may sell off a bit, negating the dividend going forward. Great companies, but it is hard for me to get excited over a REIT that is yielding <5% and trading close to 20X FFO. A lot of money is chasing a reasonable yield imo. It certainly could continue and get more expensive.
    Jul 29 11:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Red Lobster Claw Back Its Once Loyal Customers? [View article]
    Since ARCP just owns the real estate, I think a great analysis (which I am positive mgmt has looked at hard) would be, what are the buildings and land actually worth in a BK situation? Most RL buildings I have seen are pretty nice, but that is purely anecdotal. So, while I do worry about good tenants, we are talking about owning the apartment building, not the people living in the apartments. I suspect RL will do fine because seafood is still very strong. Much of the younger crowd has shifted their tastes toward sushi and other new renditions. I would think GG has a good plan to lower costs and improve the menu. Should be interesting, but I view the RL debacle as a great buying opp for ARCP! It always takes some kind of a negative perception to create bargains.
    Jul 28 08:00 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Could Justify Apple's Big Investment In GT Advanced Technologies? [View article]
    Rumors are that Apple will *start* at a 36-60 million annualized watch production rate. Good old supply chain chatter, which is sometimes dead-on and sometimes dead wrong. But, that would be a lot of sapphire, particularly because that number could grow very quickly to 100 million wrists. Watches are notoriously easy to scratch, and it makes perfect sense that Apple would use sapphire there, along with lens covers and home button covers. If they simply put home button fingerprint sensor covers on all new phones and iPads, we are looking at a whole lot more. Digitimes dropped the 70-80 million new iP6 (big:LITTLE) by the end of '14 again today! That is 140-160 million lens and home button covers alone! So, they really need to have about 200 million covers available over the next couple of months to make that happen. Conclusion: although possible, I am not convinced they will put it on the iPhone screen, as there will be (potentially) hundreds of millions needed for other applications.
    Jul 28 07:06 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Telecom Jumps Into 4G, Out Of Airports [View article]
    What is the latest word on CHL's TD-LTE? Is it working well?
    Jul 24 09:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Still Worth $113 After Results [View article]
    Justin, a couple of points. You have to stay up with the buyback. It is very real. If we credit the net 135Bn at an easy 100Bn for taxes and we use the outstanding shares from yesterday's filing, a 1.1Tn EV for Apple is actually over $200 a share right now! Second, the Nasdaq 100 index had a PE of 23.16 yesterday and as I am sure you know, Apple is the star of that show. If Apple's PE goes up, so will the index's. Apple's price would be $138+ right now if it had the same PE as the index. It would almost be that high if it had the same PE as the DJ Utilities Index! The point worth making though is that with the buyback figured into the mix and using the higher index PE (if Apple wasn't dragging it down with its low valuation), Apple would be priced at about $150! I'm not sure how Mr. flicks came up with his number, but it is actually pretty good--assuming Apple doesn't have any blockbuster products on the way. It could go much higher if we get disruptive new products and categories and services. The truth is sometimes stranger than fiction!
    Jul 23 03:52 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment