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  • Chicago Bridge & Iron: Coming Back From The Brink [View article]
    Nice summation, and I have a question for you or the peanut gallery. What impact would you expect from the falling Euro on CBI? They are based in the Netherlands, but they have contracts just about everywhere, and a lot of employees here. I haven't looked at that aspect, whether they hedge currencies, etc. Thx and GLTA.
    Feb 19, 2015. 10:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge And Iron: More Than 100% Upside [View article]
    bay, it is over 40%! Hopefully somebody with some securities filing expertise can give us an explanation. Is 10% the tripwire on having to file? Each entity has less than 10%. If Buffett controlled over 40% of CBI on 12/31, I wonder how much he has now? It isn't listed in the 13F, so could they be double counting the shares, or are they getting around that by assigning the shares to the listed entities? Seems odd either way, unless they are trying to hide the fact that they own over 40% of CBI through the listed entities. The BRK shares are in the 13F; the other list is in the 13G/A.
    http://1.usa.gov/1rqYXK4
    Feb 17, 2015. 10:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Chicago Bridge & Iron's Accounting Clean? David Einhorn Seems To Think So [View article]
    So Buffett now directly controls >40% of CBI? I'm not close to being an expert on this stuff. It is listed on EDGAR. Maybe, we have a securities lawyer lurking?!
    Feb 17, 2015. 10:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Chicago Bridge & Iron's Accounting Clean? David Einhorn Seems To Think So [View article]
    Bay, I am seeing 10.7MM shs. on BRK. What entity owns the other 20MM? Thx.
    Feb 17, 2015. 08:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge And Iron: More Than 100% Upside [View article]
    V8, assuming there is no horrible news (bankruptcy imminent), CBI was and is *the* energy stock to own. Unlike big oil, it went down in full sympathy with oil prices, even though it is one of the least correlated (directly to oil) energy companies out there. So, it doesn't have the instant exposure, but it did go down more than most pure oil plays, at one point making it down to about six X this year's earnings! It is still a steal imo, assuming they don't lay a bombshell on us next week.
    Feb 17, 2015. 06:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge And Iron: More Than 100% Upside [View article]
    I hope so, too, wigit. I would call it succinct...to the point, though! I think he is dead-on. With CBI's current estimate of $5.64, applying today's forward estimate multiple from the Russell 2000 or Nasdaq 100 puts the CBI price over 100. The S&P 500 forward PE is slightly less frothy, and only yields a price today for CBI of $98+! If we cut earnings in half from current estimates, the value is still over 50. It is way up today. Probably due to 13F revelations that Berkshire didn't sell a share last qtr, and David Einhorn added millions. Bottom line: if they come anywhere close to estimates and guidance, it could and should rally back into the 60-70 range. With a bit of good news and stabilization in oil prices, I think we could easily double. GLTA.
    Feb 17, 2015. 06:39 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Chicago Bridge & Iron's Accounting Clean? David Einhorn Seems To Think So [View article]
    WM, nice job, and I agree with you! Actually, the forward estimate for this year is $5.64. If we apply today's forward PE of the S&P 500, CBI would be selling for ~$98 today. If we use the PE for the Russell 2000 or Nasdaq 100, we would be well over $100. I always marvel when Mr. Market goes nuts on a valuation. You wonder who was dumping shares in the 30s, and you wonder who was vacuuming them up. Clearly, David Einhorn was vacuuming hundreds of millions of $$s worth in CBI last quarter. Here is the weird thing about CBI's current valuation; even if earnings were cut in half from current estimates, at the same forward PE as the Russell 2000 it should be priced in the low 50s! Berkshire didn't sell any of their 10+ million shares last quarter, and Einhorn was adding millions of shares. Pretty smart company...and BTW, it is currently up another $1.21 AH for a total of $3.31 today! I suspect it was Berkshire's 13F.
    Feb 17, 2015. 06:16 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge And Iron: Will There Be More Negative News? [View article]
    Chimp, he didn't panic when WFC went below $10, when GS went below $70, or BAC went below $6. He bought more, despite massive headwinds and damaged moats. What makes you think he won't get the last laugh with CBI?
    Feb 16, 2015. 02:30 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge And Iron: Will There Be More Negative News? [View article]
    You guys aren't alone. David Einhorn added almost 3 million shares of CBI recently.
    Feb 16, 2015. 01:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • German Economic Growth Smashes Expectations [View article]
    I am certainly no expert, but Germany is a manufacturing and oil using, Euro based economy with a very solid balance sheet. The rest of the Euros have weakness, but Germany doesn't. If it were stand alone, the Mark would be powering toward Mars right now. Germany benefits more than any economy in the world from all of these factors IMHO. Deutschland is where I have moved a significant % of my overseas investments, but all of Europe could do very well if their QE works. Of course, a Greek tragedy might provide a cheaper entry. GLTA.
    Feb 16, 2015. 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge And Iron: Will There Be More Negative News? [View article]
    Nice line, "A festival of bad news is already priced in," and I would argue people are thinking bankruptcy is possible at these prices. A quick glance tells me CBI is only paying about $85MM a year in interest. Maybe that will go up substantially moving forward? Having some debt at current rates is smart; in fact, they could easily handle more debt if needed. 85MM isn't bad for a company with 14Bn in revs, and over a billion in earnings before interest and tax. Some of these profitless restaurant chains are selling for 3-5X sales and many other companies are selling for way more than that. CBI is selling for 25%-30% of sales right now. The reason I am holding and adding on dips is that the world will continue to need energy and CBI is the top engineering name imo. Long term, it should do extremely well. One other point, David Einhorn via Greenlight has been adding CBI recently (almost 3 million shares and close to 3% of CBI's outstanding) and Berkshire owned a whole bunch. We are in pretty smart company.
    Feb 16, 2015. 10:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge And Iron: Will There Be More Negative News? [View article]
    CBI is so cheap that a lot of investors are scared that Mr. Market knows something terrible (me included). The consensus estimate is over $5 last year and $5.64 this year. At 15X forward earnings (that is a significant discount to the major averages), CBI should be selling for $85 today--again, $85 is discounted! So, I think the market is pricing in a devastating drop in earnings. The other possibility is that Mr. Market has made another of his famous pricing errors. A bit over a year ago, he was giving Apple shares away in the mid $50s. A few months ago, he went nuts and was giving airline shares away at less than 3 times this year's earnings! It happens. The danger in waiting for one more big drop is that free lunches don't last long. Mr. Market is telling us that CBI has an absolute bombshell/disaster waiting for us on the earnings CC. Something close to bankruptcy fears perhaps. If CBI comes anywhere close on earnings and guidance it should rally. If they hit their numbers and maintain guidance, it could easily double. GLTA.
    Feb 16, 2015. 09:37 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: Apple car project is for real, and it's a minivan [View news story]
    So, they are still working on perfecting a TV, after 8 years, and now they are rolling out autos? Somehow, I just don't buy this one!! Maybe they are working on the cockpit, equipping it with "A" series processors and other nifty technology, looking to sell the package to mfrs? I just can't imagine Apple wanting to sell cars.
    Feb 14, 2015. 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay Calm And All Will Be Well [View article]
    George, on a related note, here is what I like: analyst estimates in the $10-11 range this year on UAL and AAL, the recent pullback, and put premiums 6-8 months out in the 10-15% range at the money. I sold some of both Friday, but I'm bullish on airlines and prefer to think of it as a discounted buy. If I'm right, and they do well I won't mourn the expiration. The risk in airlines is real, though, so I might own some more of both. Not betting the farm on them. Enjoy your thoughts, as always.
    Feb 14, 2015. 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Currency Wars Offer Unique ETF Opportunities [View article]
    I like Europe for the reasons you mention. There is a lot of risk, but Germany is a manufacturing economy, and they are beneficiaries of lower oil and a lower Euro! Cheap Mercs and BMWs are going to sell. Europe is on sale and I expect money to move that way--from M&A, to tourism, to exports, to equities. I am adding a lot of Europe, but trying to use some calls to limit risk and lock in upside. Contrarian investing is seldom pleasant, and the headlines have been very scary--war, Greece, etc., but that is what provides the discount. It does become pleasant if prices rise. Europe just needs to rekindle some growth, which I think they will do with their version of QE. GLTA.
    Feb 13, 2015. 02:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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