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  • Apple Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, We're Not Worthy [View article]
    gpal, I disagree. The one thing Apple is on their silicon is competitive. Fiercely so, in fact. They stay out in front, and they know that is a key factor in sales. We both know that the average consumer can't see 20%, but the marketing aspects of saying they are the best matter. Because they control every part of their systems, though, the final integrated result is what will matter.
    Jan 28, 2015. 01:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: American Airlines Q4 2014 Earnings [View article]
    Fox, I think $12 is a better guess if oil stays at this level, but what if it goes even lower? AAL said they should get about $7 a share (over 5Bn) in tailwinds with current oil pricing. $10 is probably more realistic if oil rises back to the 60-70 range. There are just so many other positives, though. New planes, low rates, low debt costs, extra cash to upgrade the system...AAL is primed to soar imo.
    Jan 28, 2015. 12:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: The Perfect Storm - With Tailwinds - For American Airlines [View article]
    Salient points: they made $5.70 last year before specials, and they said the Jan 22 oil price would save a bit over 5Bn this year, or right at $7/sh. Let's discount that to $12/sh. First, everybody seems to be betting and thinking this won't happen. What if they are all wrong and oil prices stay here or go down further? American has paid down their high cost debt, updated their fleet to the newest of any carrier, and they are updating their facilities, and the older planes they are keeping. If oil stays reasonable for a couple of years, I think AAL could easily see triple digits. It is all a question of when the market realizes the value.
    Jan 28, 2015. 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, We're Not Worthy [View article]
    Yes, they blew out both of the last two quarters, so the guidance is actually very strong when you multiply by the new CFO/Maestri factor (1.1X). Kuo nailed this one, and I expect Apple to enter the CPU fray, too. They won't enter it until they can substantially outperform Intel's chips, so if they can't do that, they will probably stay with Intel, but I expect ye ole PA Semi team already has working prototypes. This will help margins or increase market share or both. The best place to start would be Apple TV! It could be like a Mac Mini, only running IOS. Assuming it outperformed a Core 7, games, apps, TV, Stereo, and home control could be controlled from the ATV/home computer. They could go a lot of different ways with this. AAPL is a steal at these prices.
    Jan 28, 2015. 12:36 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple +7.6%; Street applauds iPhone sales, China growth [View news story]
    Well, the problem was that they would sandbag and the analysts would then up the number to a realistic expectation. Then when Apple's growth slowed a little, they missed the analysts expectations but handily beat the guidance, and the stock would tank, sometimes 5-10%. Oppenheimer pitched a fit and started giving a range and committed to it being realistic. He would update guidance at the end of the quarter if Apple was going to be out of the top end, even by a little. Now, Maestri is back to guiding at ~90% of expectations. The problem is that analysts have looked really stupid the last two quarters, but they are working under Oppenheimer's old rules. I predict this quarter the analysts estimates will be close to 60Bn. They will learn the rules have changed fairly quickly. The import to this discussion is that Apple guided for continued dramatic growth yesterday, probably thinking high 50s, or more than last year's Q1. That is utterly remarkable. Booming growth for a huge company. 33+ Bn in cash flow can accelerate the mother of all buybacks as to even make Carl happy.
    Jan 28, 2015. 11:08 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple +7.6%; Street applauds iPhone sales, China growth [View news story]
    The big point for *traders* from yesterday is realizing Maestri is a bigger sandbagger than Jobs was. Investors don't really care. Apple is now guiding much more conservatively. They have crushed the last couple of quarters despite huge and unforeseen negative currency moves. The forward guidance means they expect close to 60Bn and Apple's growth machine is back in order. The watch isn't even part of the guidance, so next quarter will be huge, too. I think they will make $9 a share this year. Easily. If they get more aggressive with buybacks, maybe close to $10. Subtract the cash and we are back at a PE of ~10, or almost half the major indexes. Apple is a huge buy right now. It should be 150, conservatively.
    Jan 28, 2015. 10:48 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Suisse resets expectations on American Airlines Group [View news story]
    The price target is 65 and they lower it to neutral? If AAL makes $12 a share, it is currently selling for 4-5 X this year's earnings! My goodness. I wouldn't be confused by the herd, folks! You can't even find an airline ETF because people hate airlines so much they can't even keep an ETF going!!
    Jan 28, 2015. 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Airlines earnings call: $5B in fuel savings on the way [View news story]
    Mitch, thx for the update! Sounds like a good plan. I think AAL has a long way to run. The problem is how long it takes the market to recognize it, and whether the favorable conditions change in the interim. Of course, we all know the risks, so being hedged may pay off well for you, too. AAL has been ahead of all other airlines on a number of issues. They are batting over .400 of late, and that is in a league where .300 puts you in the Hall of Fame. We will have to wait to see if they got lucky, or if they are, in fact, just a great mgmt team. The one big area I am worried about is the bunker mentality after bankruptcy. They have to rebuild the airline, but especially employee morale. I hope they see the importance of having motivated, happy employees. Regardless of the motives, having employee groups filing lawsuits tells you there are serious attitude issues, and those are seldom all one side's fault. So much damage has been done by the preceding ten years--it is a tall order. If they can revive morale and customer service and they keep making great decisions, I see AAL as the top airline and top airline investment, bar none. I do own DAL and HA and I would love to own some UAL if I can get it on sale. LUV is a great airline, but they are expensive imo.
    Jan 28, 2015. 08:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple beats estimates, guides in-line [View news story]
    Eric, Apple's growth this quarter was more than Intel's revenue, and they didn't have a bad qtr! What is a passport, btw? A radar detector? I have to admit, the Wintel is dead crowd caused me to laugh at first. It is happening, and Apple isn't the only problem. Paleolithic Computation device=PC??!
    Jan 27, 2015. 06:58 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple beats estimates, guides in-line [View news story]
    Well, I would keep it cordial and humorous. You probably won't see Richbar, Cincinatus, dezee, or barantos for a while. Eating crow is seldom tasty or pleasant. Michael is almost always cordial, though, and the problems usually come from Apple bulls who get mad at his never ending negative opinions. He is probably working the negative angles as we speak!
    Jan 27, 2015. 06:35 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple beats estimates, guides in-line [View news story]
    I'll try to think up some negative takes on this for Michael:1) iPhones are getting so big that Apple will surely fail going forward. Apple will have to start selling them to aliens to grow any more. Law of big numbers. 2) The CFO can't hit a dartboard from 2 feet away. Incompetent. I mean really. How do you forecast that far below the results and claim you have any idea what you are doing? His midpoint was almost 10 Bn too low! Apple is doomed. 3) iPads dropped by millions and millions. Short this name!!
    Jan 27, 2015. 05:00 PM | 27 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Preview: Up, Up And Away [View article]
    They should have a monster qtr--the mother of all blowouts. Two things worry me: currency headwinds and iPads...GLTA.
    Jan 27, 2015. 04:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: American Airlines Beats On Earnings, Expects To Save $5 Billion From Low Oil Prices In 2015 [View article]
    I agree with you, Hard! AAL is a reverse oil well--almost like shorting oil. The fact that AAL is selling in the 3-5 X earnings range tells you the market still doesn't get it. Mr. Market is offering you a short on $85 oil, but it only costs you $45. If it goes up you shouldn't lose; if it stays down, you make a bundle. AAL does have other risks, so the analogy breaks down at some point. GLTA.
    Jan 27, 2015. 01:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: American Airlines Beats On Earnings, Expects To Save $5 Billion From Low Oil Prices In 2015 [View article]
    up, they discussed this a good bit. Basically, they are getting hundreds of new planes. The newer planes have more seats, but lower costs. So, PRASM drops a little, but costs drop a lot. PRASM down slightly; profits up by more. That is from memory, but I think that is close.
    Jan 27, 2015. 01:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: American Airlines Beats On Earnings, Expects To Save $5 Billion From Low Oil Prices In 2015 [View article]
    gold, exactly the opposite was discussed, and I was a little surprised, too. He talked about financing the new planes at very low rates vs. renting them, and which is smarter. They did say that they had been paying down the high cost debt (over 6%), and they have a little more to pay down over the next couple of years. The new aircraft can be financed at ~4%, according to AAL, so I expect debt will stay pretty high. Interest costs will stay low, though, and much lower than renting, or the higher finance costs of the past.
    Jan 27, 2015. 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment