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  • Activists Gone Wild: NRF/NSAM Winter Break Edition  [View article]
    kbaba, there is nothing charitable about that move. NRF is their golden goose. If NRF goes down the toilet, NSAM goes with them. NRF needs aligned interests to really prosper. NSAM would be working in their own interest. If they reduced the fee to ~160MM and took it in stock, they would get closer to the old fee with the divvy. The point on that move is to align interests, not to save money, though. The fee should be reduced from ~200MM and that is a separate issue.
    Jan 28, 2016. 10:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Activists Gone Wild: NRF/NSAM Winter Break Edition  [View article]
    Jeff, look up at Brad's example and note the multifamily is unencumbered. If you will go back and read the last CC, you will find that multi only produced 6MM in NOI last qtr, so the impact to CAD will be minimal. Multi is very hot (and a great REIT business, too) so it should sell well. In the CC, the CEO said multi was worth 500MM and it was on the market, but even assuming Brad is correct, the amount they are able to buy back versus the hit to CAD for the loss of NOI is hugely positive for shareholders. Just ask yourself, would you reduce the outstanding shares 20% if you could do it for less than a 3% hit? I understand that people are upset over losing money, but this whole discussion breeds panic, and that is bad for everybody. They simply need to manage NRF wisely, align interests somehow, and watch the value increase. I agree that they need to maintain the dividend.
    Jan 28, 2016. 10:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Activists Gone Wild: NRF/NSAM Winter Break Edition  [View article]
    NRF has a lot of great RE assets. Panic and sell doesn't work with stocks and it won't work here. Shoot, as of the Nov. presentation, they had over $3/sh in cash, although a good bit of that was reserved for capex. Assuming they have CAD/AFFO anywhere close to what they said in the November presentation, a buyer today is getting the RE almost free. NRF showed P/AFFO-CAD of about 6 then, but that dropped down to 3.XX last week in the meltdown! A P/FFO of less than 5 is ridiculous. Even ARCP, at the height of their accounting scandal, didn't get anywhere close to that cheap. If we value every other REIT with P/FFO in view, either NRF is a steal right now, or they were lying in their presentation in November, assuming not much has changed! I agree that NRF doesn't exist to feed NSAM, and the compensation is scandalous considering how much money they have lost shareholders. I think the best option is to use the management fee (it should be reduced in light of the current valuation) to simply buy equity off of the open market (instead of paying NSAM money), and making them accumulate NRF stock to align interests. As NRF stock goes in the future, so goes NSAM (plus their other businesses). Selling non-core assets like multifamily to buy stock back makes sense, assuming the price remains in the nearly-free bin. If they could buy 500MM back, that would dramatically increase CAD/sh and decrease the payout. In summary, I say don't panic, believe in the value of the portfolio, align interests with ownership, and manage your way back to a reasonable valuation.
    Jan 28, 2016. 09:17 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's call: Chinese macro, forex, virtual reality, iPhone ASP discussed  [View news story]
    Hank890, when I priced the model I was thinking about, I thought it was pretty close! A new 6S+ in 64Gb with AppleCare is $978. I don't consider the 16Gb a useful option for anybody. The base 11" MBA is $899.
    Jan 27, 2016. 06:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's call: Chinese macro, forex, virtual reality, iPhone ASP discussed  [View news story]
    Tomal, although I agree with most of your logic, don't forget that there are holdouts who really want to keep a small phone. The rumors are very, very strong that Apple realized they made a mistake in not updating the 4 inch phone and they are bringing new ones out in about 6 weeks. That should help next (third) quarter. Both IP 6 and 6S innards are being rumored, so it remains to be seen. I would love to see them bring a cheap 5SE for the EMs, and an upscale 6SE for those who don't want to compromise, but whatever they bring should be a positive.
    Jan 26, 2016. 07:27 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's call: Chinese macro, forex, virtual reality, iPhone ASP discussed  [View news story]
    Diesel, when you consider Apple's reduction in market cap for shares bought back and that the EV doesn't count the 177.6Bn in LT marketable securities--Apple and FB aren't that far apart on value. I agree that the market is anything but efficient--Exxon is selling for over 25 X '16 estimates and Apple is selling for about 10! I guess investors would much rather own oil than smartphones and software right now.
    Jan 26, 2016. 07:17 PM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's call: Chinese macro, forex, virtual reality, iPhone ASP discussed  [View news story]
    The other point that isn't being discussed as much as it should is the growth in Services and Other products (Watch, apple pay, music, etc.)--almost 40% growth combined to 10.4Bn in revs on the qtr. To put that in perspective, Services and Other is rapidly approaching Intel's total revenues, and if they keep growing at ~40% it won't be long. BTW, that is what saved them from shrinking this qtr, and it will save them from a terrible report in three months. On the phones, I think Apple's price is so high that people now consider a phone upgrade a major investment--more expensive than a PC laptop, and about as expensive as an Apple laptop. They are just lengthening the upgrade cycle due to cost alone.
    Jan 26, 2016. 06:58 PM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple posts mixed results, issues light guidance  [View news story]
    Services and other products saved them. Macs down YOY; iPads way down; iPhone flat. Not good. Guidance for next qtr way down YOY--about 10% from last year, so Macs, Phones, and iPads will likely all be down, with services and other products growing; that is in order to get to 10% down YOY. I'm sure they will beat that terrible guidance, though. The bad news for the shorts, as has been pointed out, is that this has all been amply priced in I suspect. We will see and GLTA.
    Jan 26, 2016. 04:58 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Top 10 Monthly Dividend Stocks: Updated  [View article]
    Nice article, and I would add that REITs and BDCs have generally been pummeled in expectation of higher rates. Might there be a strong rally if the economy appears to be slowing, and the Fed takes their collective foot off the gas? Sputtering growth and very low interest rates allow these companies to function in the same environment they have thrived in over the last 6-7 years.
    Jan 26, 2016. 04:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Check Back Into Chatham Using Your Dividend Rewards Card  [View article]
    Phil, that's a special dividend on a sale, and it is in addition to the regular .10.
    Jan 26, 2016. 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NorthStar Realty Finance - Updating My Controversial Bullish Thesis  [View article]
    Jason, while you may be correct, that wasn't the plan discussed on the last conference call. They have a lot of irons in the REIT fire, and the plan was to maintain the dividend, and to sell their apartment portfolio, worth apprx. 500 million dollars, and use the proceeds to buy stock back. Asset sales make a lot of sense at 3X CAD on the stock price. That way you get the dividend and the reduced share count. I think that is the best idea, as buying that much stock back would increase CAD/sh, decrease the payout, and cause the stock to skyrocket. Execution is another story, but they did have the multifamily on the market several months ago.
    Jan 26, 2016. 11:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NorthStar Realty Finance - Updating My Controversial Bullish Thesis  [View article]
    Bill, nice summation. I do want to repeat one point I made earlier. NRF was asked point blank about the dividend on the last CC, and they said the dividend is vital and the business supports the dividend. I don't know how you say it any stronger--that they intend to maintain the dividend. The quote about throwing money out the door was about frustration with the low share price, not about wanting to cut the dividend. Tylis said that after he said the dividend is supported by the underlying fundamentals. I think he was saying that Mr. Market seemed to be ignoring the high dividend. I agree that if they cut the dividend, or start discussing it, then NRF's credibility should be questioned, but imo they adamantly voiced support for the dividend in the conference call. GLTA.
    Jan 26, 2016. 06:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can You Profit From Prisons?  [View article]
    Companies that rent to the government and provide services are selected by *the government* to save taxpayer dollars. GEO has nothing to do with how many people end up in jail. Why would people be against saving taxpayer dollars? Also, Fidelity and others make billions off of the 401K and pension markets, but who would trade a large 401K/pension for a much smaller government pension? Just because the private system is for profit, it doesn't mean it is less efficient. I'm no expert on GEO, just thoughts and questions for the group....Finally, I wish more people did what Brad is doing--churches keep people out of jail, and they help people in jail to get and stay out.
    Jan 25, 2016. 09:34 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Can You Avoid Value Traps In This Market?  [View article]
    It isn't easy, and like baseball, the best aren't even close to batting 1000. I did a little study one time on Apple's insiders, and most had sold all of their shares from the '00s. Many of what appeared to be an intelligent, Apple loving management team had gotten the equivalent of millions of split adjusted shares and they sold them all, and often immediately. They didn't even keep 10%. The dividend is now worth more annually than those shares sold for in '03. If they didn't have the confidence to hold on to any of their shares, I don't think outsiders should beat themselves up for having doubts!
    Jan 23, 2016. 06:11 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The REIT Awards: Starring STAG Industrial - Featuring An 8% Dividend Paid Monthly  [View article]
    Great article on Barrons about CML RE this weekend, if you have a subscription. If you don't, just read some of the many fine articles in SA from the RE bulls. The gist is that fundamentals look good, with little excess supply. Author likened the current market to the early 00s when the business cycle was stretched, but RE fundamentals were good, producing much better relative performance from RE.
    Jan 23, 2016. 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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