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  • How Europe's QE Could Be A Stimulus For U.S.-Based Investors [View article]
    Great article; of course, I agree with you and that is why I think it is so great! The one thing I might add is oil's effect. I think lower oil helps a number of European economies. It is hard to say in the US because we have a lot of oil production. Germany, again, should benefit. Lower Euro and cheaper exports, money coming in from everywhere to buy everything European, soaring stocks, cheaper oil--it is the first time I have been excited about Europe in a long, long time. Let's hope the Greeks can rewrite the play before it becomes a tragedy! BTW, I do have a bunch of your European ETFs in my portfolio, as well as others. I would love to see some
    European sector funds, like the US. The single country funds give great targeting capability, but targeting Euro drugs, energy, tech, etc. would be a great option, too. I'd like to see those split by currency, rather than country, but total Europaen would work, too, and it might be the only logical way to do it.
    Apr 2, 2015. 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Macro And Technical Take On The Aging Bull Market [View article]
    Money may just be headed toward Europe, too. My European ETF screens are quite green. It seems that QE is the favorite diner of investors.
    Apr 1, 2015. 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Still Disappointing Shareholders, But For How Much Longer? [View article]
    RS, I owned BAC for most of the way back up. What concerns me is the revenue decay. 101, 95, and 86B predicted this year. ~15Bn is a pretty big drop in three years, and 13, 14, 15 were the years it was supposed to be getting well. They can still improve, and I am tempted to give it another whirl...GLTA.
    Apr 1, 2015. 11:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Airline stocks in focus [View news story]
    One thing DB failed to think about: the low Euro could increase European travel from the US. It may not be as bad as it looks at first.
    Apr 1, 2015. 11:03 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Recent Oil Crisis Makes Chicago Bridge & Iron A Great Value [View article]
    I agree, but it has been a great trade both down and up. I try to keep a long term position and trade around it. CBI has great engineering expertise, and that is why I own them.
    Apr 1, 2015. 10:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Recent Oil Crisis Makes Chicago Bridge & Iron A Great Value [View article]
    Ray, the other point that continually gets missed is that CBI bought Shaw for about 50% of annual revs. There were some known problems(and hence the discount), but CBI, being a great problem solver and company, got to work fixing those issues. It will take time, but so far CBI has been right and the critics have been wrong. Last spring, Prescience Point argued that they would be running out of cash and defaulting on their debt. At the time, CBI said revs were lumpy and cash flow would improve at the end of last year. That is exactly (CBI's version) what happened, and after taking a deep dive into all known problems, they guided for a midpoint of $5.80 in earnings this year--that is considering all of the outstanding issues. Simply putting the major market multiple on the midpoint gives us right at $100 for a value. It is possible CBI is lying and just waiting for the boom to drop, but it is also possible that they bought Shaw with a very solid plan to fix the issues over time *and* remain very profitable. BTW, they just said they were also planning to buy back at least 10% of the outstanding stock with excess cash before the end of next year, so if they are lying, I guess they are planning on the dance being over pretty soon!
    Apr 1, 2015. 09:43 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Recent Oil Crisis Makes Chicago Bridge & Iron A Great Value [View article]
    One other point I have mentioned recently: short interest has exploded higher, roughly up 100% this year to high levels. Short interest has risen roughly 50% to almost 13MM shares in the same exact time frame that the share price has risen 50%--about 7 days to cover. So, despite massive artificial pressure lower, the shares are on a tear higher. With CBI saying they would be buying back at least 10% of outstanding shares by next year's end, there could well be a nasty short squeeze on the way. Energy service stocks are discounted, so if you apply the major market average multiples for this year, we are actually looking at ~$100 fair value.
    Apr 1, 2015. 08:52 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hawaiian Holdings Is Not All Glitter And Glamour [View article]
    I think a big positive is that HA is selling for about 8X this year's analyst expectations, and the picture improves next year. Over time, very low PEs can lead to large buybacks and high return rates. Oil prices are down, and that is another positive. Hawaii is a very popular vacation destination, and HA is a great play on it. The major averages are valued at about twice the PE of HA. I don't think aircraft age is an issue. The 767 and 717 are still pretty efficient.
    Apr 1, 2015. 08:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CBI Gives Investors False Hope [View article]
    There are a lot of big investors out there, and somebody big has been buying the millions and millions of shorted shares, causing the price of CBI to go up 50% in the last couple of months, in spite of the massive increase. Michael, your dollar chart starts at the end of '08. Pretty much every stock has that same relationship to the dollar during that period because the market crashed.
    Mar 31, 2015. 04:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CBI Gives Investors False Hope [View article]
    Thx for the update. Personally, I would be deeply troubled by the huge increase in shares sold short, Michael. The shorts have been piling into CBI lately, up right at 100% this year to almost 13 million shares and almost 7 days to cover. At the same time that short sales have been exploding higher, the price has also exploded higher, just over 50% from the late January lows as of today. In fact, they are almost perfectly correlated--shorts have increased 50% at the exact same time the price has risen 50%! That is a frightening technical combo imho! The price went through the 50dma a while back and now the 50dma is getting ready to cross the 3 month any day now. I suspect some very large investors are buying all the shorted shares they can get their hands on. CBI is a very tightly coiled spring. It is going to take a lot of bad news (granted, certainly possible) to make it go down. One unexpected piece of good news could set off quite a squeeze. It could be news of a big investor moving in, and it could be resolution on a project, and it could be higher oil prices (even though the stock shouldn't react much to oil). An Icahn or Buffett announcement could drive it back to the 70s in a few days....
    Mar 31, 2015. 02:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pilot Shortage And The Legacy Feed [View article]
    >>As a whole, low cost and bargain carriers will be more readily able to attract pilots to expand flights, while the legacy airlines will be stymied into a flatline approach: either they will be forced to return flying to the mainline level (which is more expensive and results in fewer flight options to passengers) or they will have to produce incentives to retain pilots at regional feeds.<<

    I don't think I follow that reasoning. It seems like younger pilots would prefer the legacy job to the low cost job. I checked on Embry Riddle because of previous interest for kids and it looked like maybe $150-$200K would get a 4 year degree and the basic ratings to start out as a pilot working for a living. That is a rather large debt to service without pretty high pay rates in the early going. My kid went to another profession because the payback just wasn't there. So, I agree there may be trouble, but I would think the group hit the hardest would be smaller and low cost carriers, but that is just a guess.
    Mar 30, 2015. 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CB&I, others win LNG facility contract [View news story]
    CBI up >5% on a whiff of good news. It has rallied ~50% in the last few weeks despite huge increases in shares sold short. Up to almost 13MM shares and a week to cover. There must be some very large funds/investors buying the shorted shares in order to see it rally so hard. Shorts have increased their position by almost 50% in the last couple of months. A 50% rally during a 50% increase in shorted shares...I would hate to be short if some really good news popped. CBI could be back in the 70's in a few days!
    Mar 26, 2015. 02:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Down, But Not Out: The E&C Company That Could [View article]
    Also worth mentioning is the massive growth in shares sold short. The stock was attacked and driven down to the low 30s, but it has rallied ~50% while the shorts have continued to add to their position--~50% increase in the last couple of months alone to almost 13MM shares short. They are up to ~ a week to cover. If CBI continues to do even OK a squeeze is almost certain at some point. They said they would buy back 10% by the end of next year, so something will give in either the long or short camp.
    Mar 26, 2015. 02:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Even as oil prices plunge, airfares stay high in U.S. "uncompetitive oligopoly" [View news story]
    So you want to be able to negotiate prices with the gate agents as if they were car salesmen? Hold on sir, I have to go check with the captain! That is too low! Can you meet us in the middle? Excuse me, let me go check with the captain again... Do you think there are more car companies or airlines selling their wares? There are more domestic airlines and more foreign airlines.
    Mar 26, 2015. 11:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Great 401(k) Experiment Has Failed? [View article]
    IZZKUBE, good comments and I agree with some of your thoughts. I wasn't trying to discredit SS, but I was trying to point out that having a DC plan invested in a broad market index has been much more efficient in the past. It also guarantees that you and your estate get your retirement. Nobody knows the future, granted. I just read a great article this AM about historical small cap returns. They have actually beaten the S&P 500 and large caps, and have returned around 12% since the late 1920s. The author points out that $5000/yr for 40 years at 12% (that would be about 1975 on) would be worth just under $4 million today. But, even putting in a broader index would yield super results. What we lose with letting Uncle Sam nationalize our pensions is returns (most likely), and our kids/heirs don't inherit anything. SS may have a role, but due to its inefficiency we need to limit and define that role. It has already grown to a huge amount--almost $15k a year on an upper middle class income! I'm surprised a pension guy like Leo wouldn't salivate at what he could do with ~$15K in contributions a year in a private DC plan. Finding some good life and disability insurance would need to be discounted, but those policies don't produce a huge benefit either. Here is the link to the very interesting article:
    Mar 25, 2015. 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment