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  • Bank of America higher after earnings beat [View news story]
    BAC is selling for less than half the price/book of WFC. How cheap should it be while it hauls in billions in profits every qtr and investors sit around in their bunkers for the next 50 years waiting on another '08 crisis? I think BAC should be in the 20s with or without a rate hike.
    Oct 14, 2015. 08:06 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REIT Dividends Are Overrated [View article]
    Mitchell, good article. Very thought provoking. Using total return is great, but what isn't great is using relatively short periods with one ending time period for your comparison. If you have a company that has extraordinary issues (up or down) any time in your short period, it will skew the results. Your thesis could be correct. I just don't think this very limited study comes close to proving it. I'd love to see that same study for ten year periods, going back each year for 30 years or so. That would be a lot of work. Thx for the work on this one!
    Oct 13, 2015. 04:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REIT Dividends Are Overrated [View article]
    Kurioz and Harm, interesting and good points, but a couple of issues arise from your discussions: VNQ has outperformed the S&P 500 on the 10 year comparison and REITs might surprise you long term (how well they compare). VNQ also carries a significantly higher dividend rate and a significantly lower price to book value than Vanguard's VOO, (their S&P 500 fund), and VNQ has just a fraction of the companies that are in the S&P 500 (about a third). Taking one statistical measure for risk, I think you would agree, isn't a perfect snapshot of risk. Real estate certainly has risks, but so do 3% 30 year bonds (inflation, revolution, loss if you have to sell following rising rates, etc.). Also, when people need income to live on, using dividends lowers transaction costs and skills required to buy and sell securities at the optimal times. Finally, I don't know of any author on SA who says one should have the majority of their investments in REITs. They all say REITs have a place in a healthy portfolio.
    Oct 13, 2015. 04:13 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Airlines increases efficiency in September [View news story]
    This is why ultra low PE's don't work out. AAL is printing money, maybe 170-180MM a week, and they have several billion in cash. The most disturbing part of this is that AAL has been correlating pretty well with oil prices! Oil collapses, AAL price does too. Oil coming back, so does AAL. Somebody want to tell me about efficient market theory? Efficient option manipulation perhaps.
    Oct 9, 2015. 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Airlines increases efficiency in September [View news story]
    Looks to be slightly above analyst's estimates--10.73Bn/$2.65 per share. They might have upped the buyback, too. That's about 14-15 times earnings for this quarter alone for the current price. Calling it el-cheapo doesn't quite do it justice. Since it went down when oil prices tanked, no doubt it will go down further as oil goes back up a little!
    Oct 9, 2015. 08:36 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cal-Maine: Supply And Demand Side Conditions Still Favorable [View article]
    My guess is a combination of shorting and legitimate fear over continuation of the current windfall for CALM. They are mostly located in the South and have avoided the bird flu that has hit areas to the north. The disease can spread through wild, migrating fowl, which could take the disease south in the Fall/Winter. A large outbreak could really hit the stock hard.
    Oct 9, 2015. 07:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing The Option-Income CEFs From Eaton Vance [View article]
    Nice job, Lefty. I own several of these funds, and I like the idea of having my covered calls managed for me, rather than by my whims and gut feelings--they are also a ton of work to manage and document. Getting the higher discounts increases the margin of safety, imo, instantly. I like selling calls in sideways, and in moderately up or down markets. I felt we would hit one of those three this year, but it should outperform in a hard down market, too; obviously I would rather be many other places if we go down hard. I like these funds and your article helps readers get a grip on them. Thx.
    Oct 6, 2015. 06:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs Data Will Leave Federal Reserve On Pause [View article]
    Great points. I think they would have really looked stupid if they had raised rates, because they would likely be reversing almost immediately. Even if they had done it six months ago, they would still have to reverse it. The layoff announcements are coming hot and heavy from big companies. What that tells me is the strong dollar and weakening EMs are already pressuring profits. That is why I like REITs, utilities, and high yielding companies that are less affected by currency and EMs.
    Oct 2, 2015. 11:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Titan? Or Titanic? [View article]
    you really want to compare MSFT with Toyota and BMW? Mercedes, F, and GM have been going at this a long time. They have huge market caps, government support, a lot of IP, and tens of thousands of engineers. Also, it remains to be seen whether ICE's are wrecked. Don't forget, lithium batteries burn with unquenchable intensity; once they start, they are next to impossible to extinguish. Also, we will need some big breakthroughs on density and charge time to make them a majority option. That is possible, but even if Apple did find a non-flammable option with twice the energy density and a tenth of the charging time, I think they would be forced to split up due to antitrust concerns. The world auto market is huge. Now, I am all for the research and competition and Apple knows how to engineer and outsource the jobs to China with an efficiency that would make the Robber Barons jealous, so we will see how this plays out.
    Oct 2, 2015. 06:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy These Leadership Stocks Today For Powerful Rally Into Year - End [View article]
    This is a tough market. Sentiment is a nice recipe of Oct '87, mixed with a little 2009, baked to a nice crisp with 2000 sprinkled on top. Investors are scared to death. US equity markets are fairly valued plus or minus a bit, based on current estimates. Bonds are near lifetime highs for most of us and cash is zero. High yield is scary. Commodities are getting crushed. There aren't too many happy places for investing. I have read over ten articles in the last month by intelligent people who think the end is here economically. I have to think we are going to rally with this kind of negative sentiment, but you never know. Maybe this will be the first time they were, in fact, ringing bells at the top.
    Oct 1, 2015. 03:48 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Titan? Or Titanic? [View article]
    Absent a big breakthrough, I suspect Titanic. Automotive design is very competitive. If somebody told me they were working on a six gallon container of powdered hydrogen, I would wonder if they were working on a car or a bomb. Can you imagine the lawsuits after the first explosive crash? I'm not convinced Tesla isn't going to go down when they have serious fires in the future. We will see. I have no doubt Apple could do a good job on the interface hardware and software, and that could be where they are working.
    Oct 1, 2015. 08:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's NOT Intel Inside Microsoft's New Windows 10 Lumia Phones [View article]
    I'm not sure it is a good thing that Intel is having to put Core chips up against ARM mobile chips to beat them. I always thought Atom would crush ARM...Intel's 3 year lead in process, IP, and engineering expertise made Atom a sure bet to win.
    Oct 1, 2015. 06:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's NOT Intel Inside Microsoft's New Windows 10 Lumia Phones [View article]
    "Chill out, nobody that really knows what's goin on expected Intel Inside Microsoft's Lumia 940/950 to be released on October 6th. it will be mid..."

    Let's be honest about a couple of points. Nobody that really knows what's going on expects Intel to be competitive in mobile any more, Techy. We've been hearing wait till next year for a long time. One of many examples, this one from the Spring of 2008:

    "Intel is placing a huge bet that its new processor and platform will open up what CEO Paul Otellini has called a $10 billion market for the new mobile devices....So far, the chip maker has 25 OEM partners that will deliver..."

    Then, Medfield was going to flatten ARM, and the list goes on. Maybe this year is different, but we have learned that competitors aren't sitting on their hands and that has been Wintel's problem. I know because I was sitting on mucho INTC reading the PRs! Apple's cash flow for this qtr is approaching 2X Intel's revenues! It has grown to a lot bigger than 10 Bn.
    Oct 1, 2015. 06:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's NOT Intel Inside Microsoft's New Windows 10 Lumia Phones [View article]
    >>They really have done everything they could to strand unto death their legacy code .<<

    Exactly!! It is all about integration, uniform software, and security. Android is integrated, but it is fragmented and always a shared experience--you must share an Andy with hackers; you can't own one by yourself. MSFT is the only other company that can provide a secure, integrated, and uniformly updated (for free) platform besides Apple. That they haven't done that with Intel in the last eight years is so far beyond dumb, it is truly unbelievable. You have to wonder if Jobs had MSFT on mind control or something.
    Sep 30, 2015. 08:42 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REITs Belong In Every Diversified Portfolio [View article]
    Great article, Ben. A couple of other points I like about REITs: some REITs have an extra level of built-in diversification. For instance, if they own RE rented to many different companies in different industries. One failure, or a weakness in one industry is mitigated. Also, you can diversify them yourself and some are tied to very specific businesses--from prisons, to hotels, to farmland, to medical buildings and the list goes on and on. I like medical REITs a lot, as they should be recession resistant. The ETFs you mentioned provide instant and massive diversification very cheaply.
    Sep 30, 2015. 08:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment