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  • NorthStar Realty Finance - Updating My Controversial Bullish Thesis  [View article]
    Bill, nice summation. I do want to repeat one point I made earlier. NRF was asked point blank about the dividend on the last CC, and they said the dividend is vital and the business supports the dividend. I don't know how you say it any stronger--that they intend to maintain the dividend. The quote about throwing money out the door was about frustration with the low share price, not about wanting to cut the dividend. Tylis said that after he said the dividend is supported by the underlying fundamentals. I think he was saying that Mr. Market seemed to be ignoring the high dividend. I agree that if they cut the dividend, or start discussing it, then NRF's credibility should be questioned, but imo they adamantly voiced support for the dividend in the conference call. GLTA.
    Jan 26, 2016. 06:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can You Profit From Prisons?  [View article]
    Companies that rent to the government and provide services are selected by *the government* to save taxpayer dollars. GEO has nothing to do with how many people end up in jail. Why would people be against saving taxpayer dollars? Also, Fidelity and others make billions off of the 401K and pension markets, but who would trade a large 401K/pension for a much smaller government pension? Just because the private system is for profit, it doesn't mean it is less efficient. I'm no expert on GEO, just thoughts and questions for the group....Finally, I wish more people did what Brad is doing--churches keep people out of jail, and they help people in jail to get and stay out.
    Jan 25, 2016. 09:34 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Can You Avoid Value Traps In This Market?  [View article]
    It isn't easy, and like baseball, the best aren't even close to batting 1000. I did a little study one time on Apple's insiders, and most had sold all of their shares from the '00s. Many of what appeared to be an intelligent, Apple loving management team had gotten the equivalent of millions of split adjusted shares and they sold them all, and often immediately. They didn't even keep 10%. The dividend is now worth more annually than those shares sold for in '03. If they didn't have the confidence to hold on to any of their shares, I don't think outsiders should beat themselves up for having doubts!
    Jan 23, 2016. 06:11 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The REIT Awards: Starring STAG Industrial - Featuring An 8% Dividend Paid Monthly  [View article]
    Great article on Barrons about CML RE this weekend, if you have a subscription. If you don't, just read some of the many fine articles in SA from the RE bulls. The gist is that fundamentals look good, with little excess supply. Author likened the current market to the early 00s when the business cycle was stretched, but RE fundamentals were good, producing much better relative performance from RE.
    Jan 23, 2016. 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Can You Avoid Value Traps In This Market?  [View article]
    BTW, I have a high end PNR pump on my pool--fantastic product!
    Jan 22, 2016. 06:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Can You Avoid Value Traps In This Market?  [View article]
    Great points, but I think it is also profitable to remind ourselves that this isn't an exact science. AAPL would likely have been considered a value trap in mid '03. It had lost more than 50% of its value, was down and out, and had been falling for several years. Even at today's corected price it's a ~108 bagger over the last 13 years!
    Jan 22, 2016. 06:13 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NorthStar Realty Finance External Manager NSAM Hires Goldman Sachs - Time To Double Down?  [View article]
    Just attaching my comment from the other article for those who aren't clicked into that one. Tylis actually sounded very supportive of the dividend to me:
    I think it is worth mentioning that they were asked about the dividend point blank in the CC, and just before the comment people are upset about, Tylis said,
    >>look we are clearly shareholders and we care about the dividend. I think the business as Jonathan has spoken about in some length is strong and we think it supports the dividends.<<
    They said this in November--that the dividend is supported by the business, so they are going to look stupid if they turn around and say they need to cut it. Maybe investors are overthinking this?
    Jan 22, 2016. 05:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NorthStar Realty Finance - Make 2015 Hedge Fund Pain Your Gain In 2016  [View article]
    Jeff and Bill,
    After reading this great article, it brings the dividend question to the front burner, especially considering the changes NRF has been through. I have seen the "throw money out the door" quote mentioned and discussed a good bit on your other NRF/NSAM article. I think it is worth mentioning that they were asked about the dividend point blank in the CC, and just before the comment people are upset about, Tylis said,

    >>look we are clearly shareholders and we care about the dividend. I think the business as Jonathan has spoken about in some length is strong and we think it supports the dividends.<<

    They said this in November--that the dividend is supported by the business, so they are going to look stupid if they turn around and say they need to cut it. Maybe investors are overthinking this?
    Jan 22, 2016. 04:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cheap Oil Impacts Aircraft Orders  [View article]
    AI, the counterbalance to your argument is that when oil is cheap, airlines have a lot of cash on hand. If the legacy carriers are generating >5Bn in cash flow every year, more will end up finding its way to BA and Airbus than when they are barely scraping to get by because of high fuel prices. Also, as you know, there are many reasons to upgrade a plane: maintenance costs, passenger experience, safety, etc. Boeing and competitors will find a way to market new features. Low oil is a positive imo.
    Jan 22, 2016. 01:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing Is An Excellent Stock For The Current Market Environment  [View article]
    I'm amazed at the headlines that were generated because BA is cutting just *6* airplanes a *year*! United announced that they would be adding 40 737s yesterday, so they announced a net 34 jet increase yesterday, yet all you saw was "Boeing announces production cuts and charges."
    Jan 22, 2016. 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wading Into The Carnage In The REIT Market  [View article]
    It isn't just hotels, either. REITs have gone bipolar; the well perceived REITs aren't cheap, with some selling for more than 20 P/FFO. The dogs are so far beyond incredibly cheap, it is shocking. I think it is because investors are expecting 2009 again, much like investors were planning for the next dotcom crash in the 00s. Many of these companies have long term financing, leases, and very high occupancy. Maybe Mr. Market is the smart one, and maybe a lot of great real estate is being given away. We'll see.
    Jan 22, 2016. 11:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing Is An Excellent Stock For The Current Market Environment  [View article]
    I believe they reduced the 747-800 by 6 planes a year due to slow cargo growth.
    Jan 21, 2016. 09:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing Is An Excellent Stock For The Current Market Environment  [View article]
    And they are a defense contractor. Planes are also a nice hedge on oil imo. When oil is low, airlines have billions to invest in updating their jets. When oil is high, they are forced to do it to keep costs down. Healthy airlines are good for BA, and US airlines have made a near miraculous comeback.
    Jan 21, 2016. 10:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NorthStar Realty Finance External Manager NSAM Hires Goldman Sachs - Time To Double Down?  [View article]
    Great points cwebjohn, and while anything could happen, it seems to me, that like generals, financial pundits are usually busy fighting the last war. The rear-view mirror gets the majority of press instead of the windshield. In the early 00s, what did we hear about at every turn? The last crash--the .com bubble. All the while residential real estate quietly bubbled unnoticed, along with bank leverage and many other issues. Many REITs were caught flat footed. Now, what have he had a non-stop diet of for the last few years? Real estate problems. Most have been fixed, and most of the REITs I follow have been planning for the next big implosion. So, it stands to reason that if we do have an implosion it will likely be from somewhere else--totally unexpected. I think oil is a possibility, but the problem there is that low oil prices are a double-eged sword: while they may be killing the energy complex, they are helping consumers and most companies. The other possibility is that we aren't getting ready to crash at all. Hotels would do fine and these give-away prices will prove to be a steal.
    Jan 21, 2016. 10:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NorthStar Realty Finance External Manager NSAM Hires Goldman Sachs - Time To Double Down?  [View article]
    Thx, wanker. One other point I was pleased with that doesn't seem to get much press: NRF's 167 hotels have over a 20 yr. avg lease on them, the vast majority of which are to the Marriott brand; the second largest is Hilton, and I think the two represent over 90% of NRF hotels. This one isn't your daddy's MReit, and there is a bunch of fantastic RE that is being given away right now by Mr. Market.
    Jan 21, 2016. 09:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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