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  • Publicly Traded Partnerships - U.S. Taxation For Limited Partners [View article]
    Very helpful! A great article for the library. Thx for writing it.
    May 11, 2015. 08:11 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Powerwall's Implication On The Electric Utility Industry [View article]
    Let's make that a little stronger: the 2KW/3.3KW peak numbers completely rule this out as a power backup for the average American house. They will have to increase those numbers 5-10X for it to work as a backup. It is perfect for a little shed off of the grid, if you want to run a few lights, a fan, and charge your phone and laptop. I'm not short TSLA. When I heard about this I seriously thought I might buy one as a short outage protection. When I realized how inadequate this system is I was shocked that TSLA was marketing it as a backup--it certainly will not backup your house. You couldn't run one 40 gallon electric hot water heater with two of these stacked together! And, you would need about 4-5 stacked together just to start the typical 4 ton air conditioner. The utilities aren't worried--even a little bit. I am also concerned about safety. A lightning strike near your electrical service, a malfunction, an earthquake, or one of the kids putting the car in D instead of R when they are first learning to drive could end in a disaster. You can't put out a fire from some lithium batteries. I haven't looked at TSLA's claims.
    May 11, 2015. 05:34 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Realty Income, Keynes And 5% [View article]
    Debunker, nice quote, but faulty analogy. The parallels between the market stars of 1999, with their PEs much closer to 100 than 20, and O at current levels, stop correlating almost immediately. Rubicon's article builds a good case that the current valuations are a bit higher than the historical average, but only by 25-30% on P/FFO, not 700%! His period, starting in '98, includes two big market crashes in just 17 years, though, and rates are also much lower than the average for that period. Both could skew the numbers lower, making O look overvalued when it might not be at all. BTW, I think rates will stay lower for the next few years, but I will admit that is just my guess. At any rate, O may be valued about right, and it could even be a bit undervalued when you consider that low rates and a stable market could be with us for a while.
    May 10, 2015. 09:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Realty Income, Keynes And 5% [View article]
    I have no idea what will happen, but Debunker's argument was also believed back in '13, too. It was wrong. And BTW, as smart as Keynes was, he was also wrong, hence the famous quote we all love. We all have our biases, and most Baby Boomers think the abnormally high rates in the 80s and 90s were normal. They weren't. They are abnormally low now, but I suspect they will be much lower than the 80s/90s heading forward unless we get strong growth and/or inflation. Not too much of either on my radar. Don't forget, too, that with the aging of the Baby Boomers (and growth of their retirement accounts), the search for safe yield has created a new paradigm. REITs are likely to be more highly sought after for the income they produce, and gaining in popularity. Maybe a bit like the rise of ETFs. Retired Boomers desperately need income. That demand is one of the factors putting rates in the toilet. I think O could still correct from here, but an implosion is very unlikely, and like '13, it would probably be a great buying opportunity. Good discussion by all, including the author.
    May 9, 2015. 10:03 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Buy Omega Healthcare Investors Inc [View article]
    I bought some Wed AM along with MPW and some other names, then watched it drop for the next few hours, while kicking myself for not waiting. But, it has snapped back already. Who would have ever thought we would get excited enough to comment on a 6% dividend yielding REIT?! I like the P/FFO on these names. Reasonable even for higher rates imho. Nice summary.
    May 9, 2015. 02:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Perfect Storm For STAG [View article]
    I bought some STAG Wed! STAGe fright/REIT fright has finally put some good companies on sale. Great articles on the pullback, Brad.
    May 8, 2015. 07:43 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Silliness Of Tesla's 7kWh Powerwall Battery [View article]
    Paynowski, all electric, hot climate, 3BR, less than 2000 sq. ft. Good sized family. Started years ago at 125-150KWH per day in the hotter part of the summer. I went over every appliance, replaced the AC, put in passive hot water, improved insulation, replaced windows, LED bulbs, and the kids moved out. We are down to about 60KW a day in the summer (we do have a small pool). The wife insists on 75 in the day and 73 at night, or I think I could get it down to the 40s.
    May 6, 2015. 07:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Silliness Of Tesla's 7kWh Powerwall Battery [View article]
    Nirav, that is very, very atypical. Are you sure you aren't mistaken? A 2800 sq. ft. house in LA would likely need at least 4 tons of AC. Even a new and efficient system is going to use about 3.5KW/hr of run time in the day. So, you would only be running it a little over 5 hours a day for your entire usage! That is no other credit for lights, stove, etc. Hot water heater is about 5KW/hr, and 8-10KW is a good estimate for a family of four. If you are single and gone most of the time and keep everything but LED bulbs off, 550KW would be possible. Utilities have calculators and they will show you that a 2800 sq ft home with a family of four would use 1500-2500KW/month (depends on appliances). But, even if you use the tiny amount of electricity you said you use, you would still need a number of these batteries stacked together to handle the starting load of the motors.
    May 6, 2015. 07:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Good Times Restaurants Join The Burger Bubble? [View article]
    Ox, in addition to the articles, I highly recommend the original prospectus for the new share offering on GTIM's Investor Relations page (SEC filings). They discuss all of your questions in detail and they give a pro forma look at the new additions.
    May 6, 2015. 06:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Silliness Of Tesla's 7kWh Powerwall Battery [View article]
    Logical, it is actually a lot worse than you think. A point that is very poorly understood--even by Tesla, apparently--AC motors take a tremendous amount of current to start (air conditioners, pool pumps, washing machines, vacuum cleaners, etc.) Example: a typical 4 ton air conditioning unit might only use 3-4 KW per hour, but it might take ~12KW to start it up. You have to have the peak KW capability to start it!! It isn't optional, and you can fry your motor. You would need a very high peak KW to run the average American house. If you are connected to the grid, no problem. Neither the 7KW, nor the 10KW Tesla batteries have anywhere close to enough peak power to handle typical AC motors. Throw in an electric range and hot water heater, and you might need 20KW peak, or about 10X the size of the Tesla battery peak draw. They simply won't work as a whole house backup. You would have to stack many of these batteries.
    May 6, 2015. 05:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Independence Realty Trust Is Still Looking Like A Solid Investment [View article]
    On the half full side of the glass, it is extremely cheap, and yielding about 8.5%. Apartments should be a good investment with higher rates or another recession, so they work in most scenarios. Really, it is mostly about management. If they can start building per share metrics--FFO and dividends, I think they would see it snap back to the double digits. If they elect to ignore shareholder interests with more destructive dilutions, we could see the 6-7 range. They need to manage for shareholders and dilute more slowly.
    May 6, 2015. 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Good Times Restaurants Join The Burger Bubble? [View article]
    TS, I couldn't agree more. GTIM has two winning concepts, and there are a lot of synergies. From food purchases, to menus, to management expertise they have a lot of overlap. Also, they aren't newcomers. They are very experienced, but willing to learn and change. My one complaint has been how they raised capital a couple of years ago. They gave away shares. It looks like they may be learning there, too, and the recent hires may be helping. I think they either have some franchising lined up for BDBB, or they are planning *major* growth, and that is why they wanted to buy it out. Once they announce the growth plan, we should see a huge pop. 75 million would likely get them to 100 BDBB stores over the next few years, with just a little help from cash flow. At just under 3 million per restaurant, you can do the math. MCD has a P/S of almost 3.5. That would put GTIM's market cap at about 1 Bn, assuming ~300MM in revs. Throw in a P/S of SHAK and you could double that easily and probably more. GLTA.
    May 6, 2015. 09:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Independence Realty Trust Is Still Looking Like A Solid Investment [View article]
    I think it could be a trust issue. Management chose to dilute heavily, which is fine if it builds share value. The problem is that we would have to go up almost 30% just to get back to where they were less than a year ago! Mr. Market doesn't seem to be impressed with IRT mgmt, to say the least. That is one huge drop in share price, especially for a REIT. The fear could be that management is more interested in generating fee income for Rait than generating long term value for shareholders. That might be an unwarranted fear, but news of more share sales doesn't help. Some of the BDCs just keep doing this and eventually they cut the dividend as shareholder value and income erode. IRT needs to start showing some sharp increases in FFO per share and dividends per share--then the stock will take off and run dramatically. Dumping even more shares on the market will make this worse, I suspect.
    May 5, 2015. 01:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Independence Realty Trust ramps up [View news story]
    Anybody know much about Form D sales? It appears to be unlisted shares being sold? If they are selling unlisted shares of IRT, does that explain the huge drop in share price? Seems a bit odd to me, but I'm not familiar with Form D sales. Any explanation appreciated.
    May 5, 2015. 09:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Won't Have A $1 Trillion Market Capitalization Any Time Soon [View article]
    Brian, as an author you can attach your comments to the people you are replying to...you don't have to append to the bottom. Great article and points imo.
    May 1, 2015. 02:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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