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  • NorthStar Realty Finance External Manager NSAM Hires Goldman Sachs - Time To Double Down?  [View article]
    I saw it this afternoon, too. I thought it was a fine article, and it detailed many of the problems with this group. The disconnect for me is Brad's statement at the end coupled with the price, ~3.5 X CAD:

    >>I will admit that there are “real assets” backing this REIT, and those assets generate sufficient funds available for distribution (FAD) to maintain the dividend, but there is no catalyst for change.<<

    That is after all of the mgmt fees, and they are currently buying back over ~20% of the outstanding shares (if prices stay here), which should increase CAD per share and decrease the payout dramatically. If they really are generating enough cash to sustain a 25% dividend, how could it not be a buy, if just as a trade? It is just too cheap at current prices imo. Even ARCP, at the height of its scandal, wasn't trading anywhere close to 3.5 X FFO.
    Jan 15, 2016. 10:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital Suffers From Extreme Bearishness, A Return To Reality Is Coming  [View article]
    I would think a reverse stock split, maybe 1 for 5 is coming soon.
    Jan 15, 2016. 09:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital Suffers From Extreme Bearishness, A Return To Reality Is Coming  [View article]
    The Force is strong with this one, pootie...
    Jan 15, 2016. 09:28 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vornado Realty Should Double Down On Lexington Realty  [View article]
    One of the big factors that is really tough for individual investors in REITs is the quality of the real estate. The pictures are all pretty on their websites. The other is the quality of the management team. If I'm reading you correctly, you are saying both are much better than Mr. Market is crediting on LXP? Appreciate the writeup, and I am staying long LXP.
    Jan 15, 2016. 08:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The REIT Awards: Starring STAG Industrial - Featuring An 8% Dividend Paid Monthly  [View article]
    Another good article, Bill. Ok, so oil has cratered, the dollar has shot up, and earnings at energy and export related concerns have taken the S&P earnings estimate down a little. What does Mr. Market do? He penalizes and discounts REITs! US REITs are one of the places that should benefit from lower energy and a strong dollar. If sovereign wealth funds are pulling cash out, that makes a little sense because they might be big REIT buyers. But, many REITs are on great sales. If you broke REITs into asset classes--small cap, value, etc. (like the overall market), small cap and value REITs are cheap. The marquis REITs have held up pretty well in most categories. Here is the big disconnect for me--if Mr. Market is telegraphing a recession, then rates aren't going higher. There should be a snapback realization somewhere down the road unless it is another economic implosion. GLTA.
    Jan 15, 2016. 07:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NorthStar Realty Finance External Manager NSAM Hires Goldman Sachs - Time To Double Down?  [View article]
    Thx, Bill. Call me crazy...but I bought some of the PrefEs and some of the common, in the high 12s. Frankly, I don't remember seeing a REIT selling with a 3.XX Price to CAD/AFFO. If we can believe what they said during the last CC--that they definitely intend to buy 500MM back, then NAV/sh and CAD should both go up close to 20% from current levels. I hope they are buying it back hand over fist at these prices!! It is a no brainer imo--just buy the stock back with every extra dollar they can come up with. This is sort of like ARCP only they haven't announced an accounting scandal and this looks way cheaper than ARCP every got. Appreciate any updates, and I would back the truck up, but this price worries me something big hasn't been revealed. This price is beyond irrational imo. GLTA.
    Jan 14, 2016. 01:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NorthStar Realty Finance External Manager NSAM Hires Goldman Sachs - Time To Double Down?  [View article]
    Taking a look at NRF and their prefs...it may be a dog and a sucker yield, but at first glance it looks incredibly cheap to me.
    Jan 14, 2016. 07:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NorthStar Realty Finance External Manager NSAM Hires Goldman Sachs - Time To Double Down?  [View article]
    Bill, thx for the informative article. Moving to external mgmt in REITs is about as popular as doing an IPO for a deepwater oil E&P company right now. Why did they do this? Throw in some ARCP flavoring with non-traded vehicles and we have all of the ingredients to scare investors to death. Investors are telling management what they think of externally managed REITs, and it is double ugly. How safe is the CAD moving forward, and is debt the issue? Just starting to read some here...TIA
    Jan 14, 2016. 06:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevy Bolt Will Hurt Nissan And BMW, Not Tesla  [View article]
    Peter, the question isn't how much capacity it has at 100K. The question is how much capacity it has *going forward* at that point and how much it costs to replace the battery. I have better ways to spend my time than talking about lithium batteries and fire risk, especially when I don't have a horse in this race. Believe what you want. I pointed it out because some people are unaware of the fire risk, and they are unaware that once lithium battery fires are started, putting them out is extremely hard. If one torches in your garage, there is a very good chance your house will burn down. I would advise all EV owners to have good fire detection in their garage, just to be safe.
    Jan 8, 2016. 12:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevy Bolt Will Hurt Nissan And BMW, Not Tesla  [View article]
    Zemcon, I agree with you mostly. My point wasn't to compare the cars. What I said was that the PR of other EVs could affect Tesla. Teslas are engineering masterpieces, and they look like great cars. They cost a lot. I'm not short the stock, btw. They can certainly compete in the expensive, high performance category. They do have issues, and I was just throwing a little bit of sobriety into the conversation.
    Jan 8, 2016. 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevy Bolt Will Hurt Nissan And BMW, Not Tesla  [View article]
    jBare, you have heard a lot of ignorant statements, have you? First, tell me how much a new battery will be installed on the Model S, and then we will talk powertrains! Careful, I might know more than you think I know, and you may know less than you think you know.
    Jan 8, 2016. 11:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevy Bolt Will Hurt Nissan And BMW, Not Tesla  [View article]
    AntiB, what I said was that the public doesn't understand the fire risk with lithium batteries. Apparently, you don't either. You can google it and learn about it if you want to.
    Jan 8, 2016. 11:11 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevy Bolt Will Hurt Nissan And BMW, Not Tesla  [View article]
    JRP, that statement is not false; it is absolutely true. Regardless of how the fire starts the batteries are a fuel source. You can google lithium battery fires if you want to learn more. Gas certainly has issues, too, but my point was that the public doesn't understand the risk with EVs; they do with gas. We really haven't had enough EVs to get a good read. That was my whole point and why I used the conditional, "if." Just look at how Tesla has attempted to shield the battery if you don't think they aren't worried about fires. Remember, lithium battery fires brought the entire Boeing 787 program to its knees a few months ago. You would think Boeing would have understood all of the risks prior to producing the plane, but they didn't. I'm just saying...engineers are sometimes wrong. Time will tell.
    Jan 8, 2016. 11:06 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevy Bolt Will Hurt Nissan And BMW, Not Tesla  [View article]
    Peter, you are missing the point. The battery is limited by cycles. You may get to 100K or 150K, but at the point you begin losing capacity, your car's value will implode. Have you ever had a car or phone battery go dead? It starts losing capacity very slowly; it accelerates and then it dies. That will be factored in to the depreciation. How much do you estimate a new battery will be installed on the Model S?
    Jan 8, 2016. 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UPS: An Old System About To Be Disrupted  [View article]
    L&F,
    I hope you covered that short yesterday! Amazon delivers some of my packages with their own folks. Many still come by UPS. UPS is ahead at my house by about four light years! I like Amazon, but they make *a lot* of mistakes. They are very high growth and they try a lot of new ideas. Once they get in and realize selling phones at a profit is much harder than they thought, they give up and write off the losses. Buying planes and delivering their own packages might be a mistake they won't recover from as easily, but they know how to write off bad ideas, and they aren't afraid of making mistakes. I suspect most of this is meant to increase their bargaining power on pricing. If they can make UPS think they are entering the package business they might get a better price from them. I also agree with the earlier comments: as e-commerce increases, UPS will benefit. The surge in volume shows UPS is in a very high growth business, unlike some of their other target areas.
    Jan 8, 2016. 06:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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