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  • Will OPEC agree to cut output? Will it matter? [View news story]
    There are a lot of negatives for oil right now: 1) - Booming technology-driven improvements in efficiency. Ford just announced a new F150 that has over 300 HP coming from a V6, and the truck gets around 40% better MPG than the small V8 that didn't do nearly as well on performance from 2008 (typical replacement cycle of 6 years). One example, but the trend is definitely there. MPG improvements are accelerating across the board and competition will make it more pronounced. 2) Oil production is growing dramatically in N. America. 3) - A BTU of Natgas is incredibly cheap compared to a BTU from oil in N. America. Natgas is abundant, cheap, and it is relatively easy to use it. 4) Technology has made oil more accessible around the world. 5) - Alternatives continue to improve slowly. Solar is nibbling as we write. 6) There is a risk in OPEC cutting because prices may crash anyway, which would make it worse. If they keep production up and discuss a willingness to see $50-$60 oil, it might go a long way in curtailing new production. This has been the way they have killed production and alternative energy in the past--allow oil to go down to a level that will bankrupt small or poorly run companies. GLTA
    Nov 24, 2014. 09:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Scandal That Should Shock Nobody [View article]
    Two thumbs up to Simon for trying to discuss non-traded REITs, but I find his article lacking in clarity (sorry for that one). This is very confusing, and there is a lot of money at stake! Stirring the pot and spicing it up with two tablespoons of Madoff doesn't help at all. Many don't understand that RCAP, ARC and ARCP are three different companies.
    Nov 22, 2014. 08:22 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Independence Realty not budging from the lows after secondary [View news story]
    UTA, why would the over sell out if they can buy it for .25 cents less on the open market? I don't see that happening. I like apartment REITs and own IRT, but continually flooding the market with cheap shares (below our ownership price) just makes me question the motivation. This is the kind of move ARCP was doing, too. Caveat Emptor! I would make sure I didn't have too much of this one.
    Nov 21, 2014. 03:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford divulges fuel-economy numbers on 2015 F-150 [View news story]
    I'm impressed! Ford compares it to the '08 F-150 with the small V-8 (middle engine). Everything is up dramatically, most of it in the 30-40% range--towing, HP, torque, etc., and most importantly, MPG. (although MPG is slightly less %). So, you are getting big V8 performance from 6 years ago, with V8 sedan MPG, or even V6 sedans that many of us used to drive a few years before that. The oil industry took diesel off the table because the cost negates the MPG advantage. Anybody remember when diesel was cheaper? This one will sell like hotcakes as long as F executes.
    Nov 21, 2014. 02:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Independence Realty not budging from the lows after secondary [View news story]
    Thx for the encouraging words, Philip! The problem is secondaries and external management--or external interests. I am just beginning to sour on externally managed REITs due to the conflict of interest, especially after reading what happened at ARCP.
    Nov 21, 2014. 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Independence Realty not budging from the lows after secondary [View news story]
    Slam! RAS is ahead on the day because this should allow "more management fees to flow to" RAS? So, does IRT represent all shareholders or just the 28.2% at RAS? IRT plummets over 5% and RAS rallies--that tells who the market thinks they represent!
    Nov 20, 2014. 04:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple gains following target hikes [View news story]
    Yep, and estimates are going to keep heading up, as they figure out that the ASP on the iPhone is going to be dramatically higher because of the 6+ and the new memory tiers. ASP is hard to move on the iPhone because you have to average over the whole number, but the effect on revenues and margins is huge. The new CFO has gone back to very conservative guidance, if last qtr is any indication. Out the top end and no guidance change, so they consider significant beats normal. This is back to how it was under Jobs. Bottom line: estimates have risen about 10% over the past 90 days, and they have more to go. $8 a share is likely imo. The watch isn't figured in yet, either.
    Nov 20, 2014. 01:55 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties: The REIT Strikes First On The Lawsuit Front [View article]
    ARCP is sharply higher on heavy volume. I have been waiting for a big fish to announce a position. That could pop it back to the 10-12 range in itself. The lawyers better hope they can find something more than 3 cents AFFO. Not only will shareholders get nothing, but the lawyers will also be working for free.
    Nov 20, 2014. 11:10 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties: The REIT Strikes First On The Lawsuit Front [View article]
    >>I don't think Schorsch resigning will result in magic.<<

    You can never tell on journalism, but Bloomberg ran an article that made it sound like an elaborate and interconnected scheme to benefit the key leaders at the share owners' expense. They sort of hinted at the following: the companies gave fees on the rapid buying and selling to other entities, making these guys very rich. The companies are opaque, tangled up, and they all benefit the same guys. A real mess with conflicting interests, shared addresses and phone numbers, and lawsuits. Hopefully the FBI and SEC can get to the bottom of any wrong doing on their part. So basically, if ARCP simply replaced the leadership and started managing itself for the benefit of the owners, I think it should quickly reflect more of the value of the underlying real estate. I'm not saying that ARCP was ever a beautifully run company. They brought in and destroyed billions in capital in an amazingly short time. There is a lot of value left because the market oversold the assets, not because it was well run. But, the best I can tell ARCP would be priced at $15-$20 if it was perceived like O. Assuming we don't have more issues coming, I think it will quickly head back toward the 10-12 region and then slowly climb on great execution. A lot of FUDsters are suggesting this might kill ARCP (and it could if there is a lot more horrible news being hidden), but it will probably make it a much better REIT. GLTA.
    Nov 20, 2014. 10:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After A Parabolic Run, It Is Time To Sell Overbought Airline Stocks [View article]
    You could get lucky, Hawk, but I think airlines are not just a buy, they are screaming buys. It does depend on gas, though. If oil stays in the 70-80 range, I expect AAL to make $8-$9 a share in '15. 4-5 times next year's earnings is about 25% of the valuation of the average stock. Airplanes are full and fares are not cheap. Yields are going to be great. They do have risks, so caveat emptor, but I think this call is a mistake.
    Nov 19, 2014. 05:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Approaches Price Target Too Quickly [View article]
    People aren't looking at the large increase in earnings estimates--they are going through the roof, having risen about 10% for this year in the last qtr alone. That trend should continue as the market figures out the effect of the new phones. Estimates will soon be over $8.00 for *this* year imo. So, much of the increase isn't multiple expansion, it is increased profit expectations. Also, as the EPS growth rate heads skyward, multiple expansion is justified. If we adjust $15 a share for excess cash, AAPL is only about 12-13 times this year's earnings. 12.5 would be about 50% of the price of the Nasdaq 100, maybe a bit over! Apple is still very cheap.
    Nov 19, 2014. 02:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties: Another Small Step In The Right Direction [View article]
    AD, I have some SAN via EUFN--decided it was good diversification last year. Hasn't worked out well, but maybe now is the time? The chart looks inviting. I have tried to own the dry bulkers off and on because of the extreme valuations and I have usually been happiest on the days I sold my boats--as the old joke goes. Certainly has potential. The BDCs are inviting, too, but they make me nervous. The fear of rate hikes has driven them to ridiculous levels. I got nervous and sold those, too. I guess that is what makes a market. Good luck and thx for the tips, I know them all well and sometimes the best ideas are already in your portfolio/watch list.
    Nov 18, 2014. 01:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Approaches Price Target Too Quickly [View article]
    Doc, you could be right on AAPL, but saying 100% of your calls have been right is wrong. Sorry to call you out, but the only call I noticed from you was a few weeks ago to short the airlines. Anybody following you in that trade got their head ripped off. To your credit, you did advise stopping out. I advised you against the idea at the time if you will remember. The folly is thinking anybody is smart enough to predict the future consistently. Apple could go down, but once the Black Friday crowds start lining up to buy iPads for $199, you may see a lot of upward pressure on Apple. The new watch is coming, and many new products are rumored for the new year. Another technique is to buy and hold the company for the long term. GLTA.
    Nov 18, 2014. 12:32 PM | 23 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crash Of Oil Prices Could Be The Opportunity Of The Decade [View article]
    I generally like RS's ideas a lot, but I'm going to make a play on words here--the great opportunity could well be on the transport side of the equation imo. The energy stocks may only be in the first or second inning of the correction. Airlines, shippers (UPS/FDX), trucking, and railroads to a lesser extent, could all do quite well with a prolonged correction in energy.
    Nov 18, 2014. 12:11 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties: Another Small Step In The Right Direction [View article]
    Thanks, AD! Congrats on your timing. It depends on context and stakes on believing politicians. One thing I do believe is that they have an unusually strong sense of self-preservation. It seems to go with the territory. I'm looking hard every day, but believe it or not, I'm close to 30% cash right now. Any great ideas? HE
    Nov 17, 2014. 06:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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