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  • Investors sell the news on Apple [View news story]
    I agree Nic. I think it will sell well to Apple product fans like me, but I think they will run customers off with those prices, particularly overseas. Also, the ironic thing about the guts (I'm a bit of a geek) is that this bump appears to less than any generation in recent memory. I expected the 20nm jump to be less productive, but I am seeing about a 16% increase in CPU performance on geekbench over the A7 (those could be fake, but even Apple said just 25%). While 16% would be typical for Intel, and it is a more realistic number, most of the recent generations have been 50-100% jumps in performance. If Apple can sell a bunch, they should have extremely high margins, but I am afraid phone sales are going to be affected. Even on contract, the big phone at the midpoint will be almost $500 out the door with Applecare!
    Sep 9 04:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors sell the news on Apple [View news story]
    It is normal, but there were some negatives that will be considered by investors. The prices are going up dramatically on phones and the watch is at the luxury watch price point. Carriers around the world are pushing back hard on subsidies and the 6+ with Applecare and the midpoint on memory will be close to $1000! I think that will reduce sales even in developed markets. (I am planning on paying up, though). Don't shoot the messenger; I'm an Apple bull.
    Sep 9 03:44 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors sell the news on Apple [View news story]
    Yep, scott. Unless there are a lot of hidden features, the watch is going to be a tough sell imo. If it starts at $349 where does it end? Also, carrying *another* charger for trips stinks. Also, it really doesn't do much the phone can't do. You can count your heartbeat. It is a beautiful piece of technology; I just question the utility...and I am a big fan of Apple products!!
    Sep 9 03:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valuation supports Apple shares heading into iPhone unveiling, analysts say [View news story]
    Worrying about what happens tomorrow is important to traders, but looking at the average price movement in the 12 months following iPhone rollouts is more instructive for investors: the *average* is 39.8% 12 months after the rollout. What is impressive is that includes the 2012 debacle and the '08 crash.
    Sep 8 08:10 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Event: More Than Just iWatch And Bigger Screens [View article]
    Agree! I can tell you there is at least one Apple customer who is waiting on the biggest screen and battery they can produce--me! The one that still cracks me up is when Steve Jobs arrogantly (and humorously) proclaimed that any tablet smaller than the big iPad was DOA! He added that manufacturers would have to put a file in each package so customers could reduce the size of their fingers to make it work! That was on an earnings conference call! Jobs was sometimes wrong, but never in doubt, as the old saying goes.
    Sep 8 10:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies: Is A Short Squeeze Coming? [View article]
    Digitimes had a short shot on sapphire last week if you missed it...
    Sep 8 08:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Event: More Than Just iWatch And Bigger Screens [View article]
    The truth is that Apple should have had a big screen phone two years ago. Consumers strongly prefer Apple's ecosystem and customer service and they put up with the little screens of years past; they didn't prefer them. But, that actually points to Apple's strength, not weakness--the fact that consumers will put up with Apple's obstinate pipeline timing. Most companies would get roasted for doing that. I think there is tremendous pent-up demand for big screen phones. Also, the other features--sapphire, OIS, reliable payments system, etc., will likely make Apple the phone everyone wants. I look for a blowout quarter, unless we get a bad surprise (no big phone, slipped schedule, other bad surprises, all of which I doubt). GLTA.
    Sep 8 08:10 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Event: More Than Just iWatch And Bigger Screens [View article]
    That is the no-brainer play, farstud. Apple almost always drops after announcement day, so shorting it tomorrow is what almost everyone expects to be the play that pays. The 4% drop last week is worrisome. Whenever a pattern gets too predictable, the market magically changes the rules and removes the "smart" trader's head. Apple has not been following the pattern this year, so it should be interesting.
    Sep 8 07:59 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Base Scenario: Apple's Mobile Payment Service Generates $2 Billion In Revenue [View article]
    Plus, there is massive and gripping fear over what happened in '12 to AAPL. We need to shake out the weaker hands before it can base and move higher, I suspect. On the payment discussion, I see Apple solving several problems. First, merchants will save because it will speed up transactions. The phone will do most of what clerks and equipment formerly did. Issuers save because Apple will likely guarantee the payments based on fingerprints and iTunes security--fraud stopped dead. Customers save time by letting the phone handle transactions, and we will have tremendous record keeping advances--the phone will know when, where and how much--no more searching old statements. And because cards are now virtual, you just need a phone, no credit card filled wallet (that will take time). Apple will take a tiny cut, but the numbers will be huge. I am excited about the possibilities.
    Sep 4 10:50 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Set For Strong Sales Of iPhone 6 In Just A Few Weeks - But Is It Too Little, Too Late? [View article]
    That is for the whole year--2014.
    Aug 30 04:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Set For Strong Sales Of iPhone 6 In Just A Few Weeks - But Is It Too Little, Too Late? [View article]
    Great discussions, Ratty. A couple of points: I'm not sure why people are making a big deal about all time highs; I think you have to correct for the buyback. Apple's huge buyback has reduced the market cap by about 10% since 2012. In order to get back to the same total value (market cap) for Apple Inc, the stock needs to get to ~111+. Second, I have gotten some grief for talking about Apple current events (rumors, earnings from suppliers, news stories citing sources, etc.), but I think it could give us an edge. Digitimes, the WSJ, and others have cited sources saying Apple is planning on 70-80MM in iP6 production in CY '14. 75MM would be (very roughly) a 50% increase YOY! Incredible as that sounds, on Friday an Apple supplier guided for a huge increase this quarter (much bigger increase than last year), and attributed it to a large American smartphone customer. Barron's covered it. With current estimates at ~8% for a YOY increase this year for AAPL, we could be looking at some large increases to estimates. Finally, Apple has amped the rollout tremendously. One prominent Apple blogger said they consider the 9th a major milestone in the history of Apple. I am hoping for a little pullback to add some, but I am wondering whether we will get the annual price drop on the 9th. GLTA.
    Aug 30 09:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Pathway To Creating Wealth With REIT Diversification [View article]
    NC, that is a great point many have not considered: taxes are higher on REIT dividends unless you are tax deferred. That is why I do the same thing you do--keep them in my retirement funds mostly. Depending on the tax bracket, you would likely lose most, if not all, of the performance advantage over the S&P. Brad does point that out usually. That is another reason why Congress won't mess with the tax advantage REITs enjoy--the Treasury might actually get more money over the long run.
    Aug 30 09:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IPhone 6: Rubicon's Rubicon?  [View instapost]
    Very well put, and even a nice pun to finish it up! It could continue to languish, but a big deal with any of the major smartphone mfrs and it could double in a week! Thanks for commenting.
    Aug 29 09:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's A8 Processor Launch And Its Impact On Intel's Mobile CPUs [View article]
    Back at you! Try reading your post and your other one and see how they come across, Dennis. The point is that value determination has to be based on something. Saying that it is subtle or nuanced, while true, is hardly a reason to not discuss PE ratios of Apple and other stocks/indexes. I was serious and wasn't being smart about sharing your calls. If you are trading the pops and drops I would love to hear some of your timing calls! That is the kind of stuff I come to SA and study!
    Aug 29 05:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Apple wearable unlikely to ship before early 2015 [View news story]
    cw, you forgot to throw in: buy low, sell high! Contemplating future earnings, apparently, is a different methodology for us all.
    Aug 29 04:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment