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  • More delays possible for Southern's Vogtle nuclear plant, regulators say [View news story]
    Nice work! The premiums have been impressive and rewarding to sellers.
    May 13, 2015. 04:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More delays possible for Southern's Vogtle nuclear plant, regulators say [View news story]
    CBI is a weird bird; the irrational moves remind me a little of Apple. It drops to the lower mid 40s on a rumor that Westinghouse has some accounting issues, and then rallies 20% in two and a half days, completely ignoring a pretty credible report on more nuke delays for CBI! Nutty. Somebody has sold puts, controlling millions of shares, in the 40s this week...right now it looks like somebody is taking the shorts money. We'll see what the rest of the week brings. Short interest up again--every report since last Fall.
    May 13, 2015. 04:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Delta Air Lines announces new $5B buyback program [View news story]
    That is the problem with the argument for maintaining excessive PE discounts: the stock is so cheap, the excess cash can buy back huge quantities of stock. It isn't just airlines; I see the argument all the time on other companies. Investors were making this argument for Apple, and Apple proceeded to buy back truckloads of stock. AAPL has doubled in the last couple of years. Kudos to Delta mgmt--if Mr. Market insists on giving your stock away, you have to take advantage of his offer.
    May 13, 2015. 09:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Good Times Restaurants Reports Q2 Results [View article]
    The big line: we expect 65-70MM annualized run rate by the end of this year. So, with aggressive growth, '16 should be significantly north of that number. That is much higher than current estimates due to the addition. At MCD's P/S that is approaching $20/sh. At SHAK's P/S, well you wouldn't believe the number and neither would I.
    May 12, 2015. 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's reworks menu strategy [View news story]
    rcm, I believe people are smarter than you think. They just don't want 19 ingredients in their french fries. They want real, natural potatoes, salt, and oil. I would bet 10,000 dollars that your grandmother didn't put azodicarbonamide in the family bread recipe! BTW, I am not a tree hugger.
    May 12, 2015. 04:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Lexington Realty's 7.5% Yield Too Good To Be True? [View article]
    richard, it would have to rally over 30% from this AM's lows to get back to where it was earlier in the year--that is a pretty big correction. P/FFO is way below peers, and well below 10. It has an ARCP type valuation, but they are paying a solid dividend. You can read the verbiage on giving the deeds back in the Annual Report. Just sounds like a business decision, but I agree that it would be nice to avoid those situations if possible. T is a solid company, but they have a lot of competition. I have my eye on them, too.
    May 12, 2015. 01:40 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Lexington Realty's 7.5% Yield Too Good To Be True? [View article]
    I get tickled when I see this comment, and I see it a lot. It is usually made with a certain amount of incredulity toward even the possibility that everyone else can't see the obvious bottom or top. I just keep on, figuring they are either a lot smarter than me (as Whitney probably is), or clueless, but probably not in between. I'm positive I'm not good enough to call bottoms, so what I do is look at the one thing that is certain--when a stock has dropped by a large percentage. Then, if still bullish I take a position, but not a full one. If it keeps dropping, I add at the lower price. That doesn't get bottoms, but it avoids tops, and usually gets me a nice discount. Of course, sometimes the hits just keep on coming and it gets cheaper. The difference between being wounded by a falling knife and being a really smart DCA'er is often resolved in hindsight alone...GLTA.
    May 12, 2015. 01:19 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Lexington Realty's 7.5% Yield Too Good To Be True? [View article]
    Is 7.5% too good to be true...apparently not! If it makes $8.50, we will be up to 8% on our yield...
    May 12, 2015. 09:52 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CB&I slips as project partner starts accounting probe [View news story]
    Check Q 25, hexpert!

    http://1.usa.gov/13xWajP
    May 11, 2015. 03:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CB&I slips as project partner starts accounting probe [View news story]
    cola, CBI has seen massive growth in shorted shares over the last few months, even while the price went up about 50%. In fact, short interest has risen on every single report since last Fall! It is now enough to fill 100% of the orders for 2-3 weeks of normal volume. As we all know, that places massive artificial pressure to the downside--until it doesn't. Since the end of about January, the pattern has been the shorts taking their best shot and driving it down, followed by a steady rise as the big boys just keep buying shares, very similar looking to the last couple of days. If the 13Fs are positive and the next report shows even higher short interest, I will likely be buying calls. I think a squeeze is going to be hard to avoid. We will need a lot of really bad news. Possible, but CBI is getting very risky for shorts...
    May 11, 2015. 03:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Publicly Traded Partnerships - U.S. Taxation For Limited Partners [View article]
    Very helpful! A great article for the library. Thx for writing it.
    May 11, 2015. 08:11 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Powerwall's Implication On The Electric Utility Industry [View article]
    Let's make that a little stronger: the 2KW/3.3KW peak numbers completely rule this out as a power backup for the average American house. They will have to increase those numbers 5-10X for it to work as a backup. It is perfect for a little shed off of the grid, if you want to run a few lights, a fan, and charge your phone and laptop. I'm not short TSLA. When I heard about this I seriously thought I might buy one as a short outage protection. When I realized how inadequate this system is I was shocked that TSLA was marketing it as a backup--it certainly will not backup your house. You couldn't run one 40 gallon electric hot water heater with two of these stacked together! And, you would need about 4-5 stacked together just to start the typical 4 ton air conditioner. The utilities aren't worried--even a little bit. I am also concerned about safety. A lightning strike near your electrical service, a malfunction, an earthquake, or one of the kids putting the car in D instead of R when they are first learning to drive could end in a disaster. You can't put out a fire from some lithium batteries. I haven't looked at TSLA's claims.
    May 11, 2015. 05:34 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Realty Income, Keynes And 5% [View article]
    Debunker, nice quote, but faulty analogy. The parallels between the market stars of 1999, with their PEs much closer to 100 than 20, and O at current levels, stop correlating almost immediately. Rubicon's article builds a good case that the current valuations are a bit higher than the historical average, but only by 25-30% on P/FFO, not 700%! His period, starting in '98, includes two big market crashes in just 17 years, though, and rates are also much lower than the average for that period. Both could skew the numbers lower, making O look overvalued when it might not be at all. BTW, I think rates will stay lower for the next few years, but I will admit that is just my guess. At any rate, O may be valued about right, and it could even be a bit undervalued when you consider that low rates and a stable market could be with us for a while.
    May 10, 2015. 09:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Realty Income, Keynes And 5% [View article]
    I have no idea what will happen, but Debunker's argument was also believed back in '13, too. It was wrong. And BTW, as smart as Keynes was, he was also wrong, hence the famous quote we all love. We all have our biases, and most Baby Boomers think the abnormally high rates in the 80s and 90s were normal. They weren't. They are abnormally low now, but I suspect they will be much lower than the 80s/90s heading forward unless we get strong growth and/or inflation. Not too much of either on my radar. Don't forget, too, that with the aging of the Baby Boomers (and growth of their retirement accounts), the search for safe yield has created a new paradigm. REITs are likely to be more highly sought after for the income they produce, and gaining in popularity. Maybe a bit like the rise of ETFs. Retired Boomers desperately need income. That demand is one of the factors putting rates in the toilet. I think O could still correct from here, but an implosion is very unlikely, and like '13, it would probably be a great buying opportunity. Good discussion by all, including the author.
    May 9, 2015. 10:03 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Buy Omega Healthcare Investors Inc [View article]
    I bought some Wed AM along with MPW and some other names, then watched it drop for the next few hours, while kicking myself for not waiting. But, it has snapped back already. Who would have ever thought we would get excited enough to comment on a 6% dividend yielding REIT?! I like the P/FFO on these names. Reasonable even for higher rates imho. Nice summary.
    May 9, 2015. 02:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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