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  • Volkswagen's Scandal Is Bad But May Present Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Thx, borella. So, why bother with VLKAY or VLKAF? Seems like the liquidity would make VLKAY the better route. Summarizing: VLKAY is the ordinary and VLKPY is the preferred, both at 5:1. VLKAF approximates the actual ordinary. Dividend was ~.96Eur on the ADR, (preferred just slightly more) but that might get cut. Looks like the shares are already a dollar over the price in Germany this PM. With France announcing an investigation, this could get worse. Does anyone know, right off hand, about the tax implications on dividends coming out of Germany via VW? TIA.
    Sep 22, 2015. 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple iPhone 6s reviews roll in [View news story]
    Again, the story that will develop as time goes by for investors is Apple's incredible CPU performance. The A-9 is stronger than rumored, and I suspect the A9X will be a shocker. The A-9 appears to be like a desktop with video card from a few years ago, as Apple stated. The only two negatives I can find: battery life is the same to a little worse than last year and the 16GB version is worthless. Apple probably should have offered 32/128/256. You are stuck with the 64 minimum, and with Apple Care and tax you are getting really close to $1000/phone. It should drive ASPs over $700 this qtr, which will be a powerful multiplier, but it could slow sales down, too.
    Sep 22, 2015. 12:00 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Volkswagen's Scandal Is Bad But May Present Buying Opportunity [View article]
    What is the diff between VLKAY and VLKPY? Anybody?
    Sep 22, 2015. 09:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: Apple steps up electric car efforts, aims for 2019 shipping date [View news story]
    The auto companies are going to be a little tougher to compete with than Blackberry and Microsoft, and I'm not sure there wouldn't be antitrust issues. I hope Apple doesn't waste 100Bn on this boondoggle!!
    Sep 21, 2015. 04:15 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: Apple steps up electric car efforts, aims for 2019 shipping date [View news story]
    Right after the rumored new TV rolls the car, get a TV free! Jobs "finally cracked it" about 5-10 years ago, so that means we might not see the car till 2030...if ever!
    Sep 21, 2015. 02:05 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Test For The Bears [View article]
    >>Sentiment models are still off the charts bearish, which is contrarian bullish for equities. While the combination of bullish macro, fundamental and sentiment indicators all point to higher stock prices, these models are imprecise at pinpointing the exact day or week of the market bottom....In the face of high levels of fear and caution from individual investors (Rydex), US investment advisors (NAAIM) and global institutional managers (BoAML FMS), "smart money" insiders are contrarian bullish and they have been buying heavily since inner trader turned, flipped from long to short on Thursday with the FOMC rally. His plan is to start to scale out-of-short positions should the market flash short-term oversold conditions and then watch how the market responds before making further decisions.<<
    Cam, that pretty much cleared it up for me...thx!!
    Sep 21, 2015. 01:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The iPad Mini 4 Can Rival The Nvidia Shield Tablet And Xiaomi MiPad [View article]
    I don't know; it will be interesting to see how well the Pro does, as the chip should be a monster on performance. It might be a big gaming winner and the first real tablet (Apple) that can succeed in laptop replacement, particularly for younger people. The real downside to most of the iPads out there is the lack of memory. IOS dumps your webpages, so it has to reload, using more data and time and frustrating users, driving them back to their PC laptops for many tasks. I'm not making a prediction. We will see.
    Sep 21, 2015. 11:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Peel RMDs From Your IRA Onion Without Worrying You'll Outlive Your Money: Retire And Be Happy [View article]
    George, dumb question probably. Does the RMD get adjusted every year? In your example, would year two go up for the higher balance and higher multiplier for the older age based on the preceding end of year balance?
    Sep 18, 2015. 08:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Quick Recap Of Yellen's Speech [View article]
    She pointed out that inflation is below target, which is very low. The economy isn't close to overheating and could actually be cooling. We will need to pick up some inflation to get any significant increase in rates. It should be a flat and boring market as far as the eye can see. There isn't much to get excited about on growth either, and any big drops should be bought for the yield. Index equities are competitive with the 10 yr. We should be in a stock picker's market, but perhaps the manufactured panics will create enough money to keep the big boys happy.
    Sep 17, 2015. 04:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Federal Reserve Will Not Raise Rates In 2015 [View article]
    I agree techy. She basically said today that rates aren't likely to go much of anywhere over the next few years. Very low inflation/deflation; very low rates; very low wage growth; very low investment returns. This market should be incredibly boring going forward, with the manufactured crises all that are keeping it moving. It should settle down and put everybody to sleep, and that should become conducive to stock pickers.
    Sep 17, 2015. 04:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: iPhone 6s Orders Are Likely To Be Tracking Below Last Year [View article]
    Barron's quoted an analyst yesterday, saying production issues will limit total shipments to 13-15MM, max. I like the 125-130MM number, as it sounds pretty realistic, up ~10-15% YOY for the second half. Apple is very cheap right now, so I suspect Mr. Market is thinking like you, Paulo. We will see. I wouldn't bet the farm either way on Apple, but it does look extremely cheap compared to the average stock. Apple is close to Google on market cap, especially discounting cash and LT investments for the EV, but Apple should make about what Google does for the year in the next qtr!!
    Sep 16, 2015. 11:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: iPhone 6s Orders Are Likely To Be Tracking Below Last Year [View article]
    I'm not sure I follow your logic, Claudio. China is ~25% of Apple's revs, but you seem to be saying they account for ~50% of the world's iPhone sales? Have you got a credible source for that idea? Barron's and several other sources are writing 12-13MM because of a number of issues. I would hate to see people sell Apple if they come in at 12.5MM. They are having production issues and delivering 12.5MM of anything in a couple of days creates problems.
    Sep 16, 2015. 10:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: iPhone 6s Orders Are Likely To Be Tracking Below Last Year [View article]
    Claudio, agree that figuring in advance helps, but your numbers are way too high imo. China only accounted for a little over 25% of Apple's revenue last qtr. Apple sold over 10MM in the first weekend ex-China last year. So, I would expect first weekend sales of about 13-14MM (if China accounts for 25% of phone sales, plus you have to add for NZ), if Paulo is correct that sales will be flat for the 6S cycle. I would think anything over ~15MM would indicate growth. If they sell anywhere close to 20MM, that is a monster blowout, and estimates need to increase dramatically.
    Sep 16, 2015. 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: iPhone 6s Orders Are Likely To Be Tracking Below Last Year [View article]
    EGARYE, you need to quote who you are responding to, as "your" could refer to anyone in the discussion. For my predictions, last year I was arguing that the first weekend sales numbers interpolated to ~66.5--76.5 million phones in the 4th CY qtr (Apple's 1st qtr), and I pounded the drum that ASPs would be much higher, and that Apple would produce a blowout. BTW, ASPs should be even better this year because of the higher percentage of 6 plus and 6S plus phones in the mix. I look for 80-85 million phones in this year's holiday qtr. I got flamed for predicting that last year, but none of the flamers has spoken to me since the qtrly CC! The iPad should do well, as ASPs will be helped tremendously by the Pro. ATV should add in solidly, and we will see what they bring on the Mac next month, but I would expect big things. The Watch is all accretive. I expect solid growth and another blowout/record qtr in the 1st. The 4th may be off a little because of the late roll on the phones.
    Sep 15, 2015. 08:24 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy These Leadership Stocks Today For Powerful Rally Into Year - End [View article]
    I thought it was a great article, Bobcat, particularly the CNBC mention and sentiment indicators. The crash stories, along with crisis level VIX numbers, and the other sentiment indicators tell me Robert is right here. Investors are absolutely panic-stricken, having 2008 nightmares, even though we probably aren't anywhere close to a crisis. Shorting has been easy money, but it may be a very crowded trade here. If the Fed raises we may get a hard bounce, but we could also rally either way--sell the rumor, buy the news. The key is inflation, imo, and in agreement with Robert. There isn't any. Rates aren't going to move much until we get some inflation. I still have about 13% cash waiting on another panic, but I'm happy with what I bought, and I'm prepared to accept that I missed some upside here. BTW, I have several fins, but VFH is very easy if they raise. GLTA.
    Sep 15, 2015. 04:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment