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  • Cuban thaw could benefit U.S. carriers [View news story]
    gold, he was recommending traders short AAL and other airlines a couple of months ago, too. I tried to tell him it was a bad idea. At least he makes his calls for everyone to see. BTW, AAL was 37.40 at the time.
    Jan 3, 2015. 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shake Shack IPO Means Last Call To Get Long Good Times Restaurant [View article]
    This concept is very popular with consumers. They still love burgers and shakes, but they want higher quality than older fast food joints. There are a number of names moving into this space. SHAK is one. I was also looking at HABT. Back of the envelope guess: GTIM would be about $16.40 right now if it had a similar P/S valuation, but GTIM is expecting booming growth for the next few quarters, based on their store growth guidance. I think it would be about $25 if it had HABTs P/S on 15 sales! If GTIM executes well and they aren't stupid and dump a bunch of shares in an overly cheap secondary, we could be in for quite a ride! GLTA.
    Jan 3, 2015. 10:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Be Foolish With American Airlines [View article]
    Airlines do have many and varied risks, but Mr. Market is in denial on current fundamentals imo. AAL will save billions over current projections if oil goes back to the predicted 60-80 dollar range. If it stays down here, we are talking more like 5Bn! With 50s oil and the NOLs, you are looking at $10-$12/sh or more--a windfall to fix the balance sheet and repair issues that need it. AAL was making good money at $100 oil. Assuming a conservative $10/sh and 6-8X earnings (~10X normalized), we would be looking at $60-$80 share. It may take a couple of quarters to overcome the denial, but I think $80 in the Summer if oil stays low and the ship doesn't hit any torpedoes.
    Dec 29, 2014. 05:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AbbVie HCV competitors getting slapped in early trading [View news story]
    I think BAML downgraded GILD to underperform today. Where does it stop?
    Dec 23, 2014. 11:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Habit Restaurants - Strong Growth Is Already Reflected In The Huge Post-IPO Run [View article]
    TVI, thx for the research; I am just getting started here and had a quick question. I can't understand why SA and YHOO are showing only the class A shares in the market cap? That could lead somebody into thinking this stock is cheap when the P/S is actually more expensive than CMG! I was ready to buy until I figured out that the market cap is approaching 900MM for this tiny burger chain!
    Dec 20, 2014. 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Bad To Worse At ARCP [View article]
    They released a pro forma after the multi tenant sale, so I think MtnTop might be a little higher than the new table. They show about 19.27Bn in assets after the sale, with about 4.25Bn in goodwill and intangible lease assets. The leases are worth something, but the actual buildings and land are probably closer to 15Bn, less liabilities. I come up with the mid $5s for a good floor on land and building values. Some might argue that they wouldn't get full value in a fire sale, but I think they could easily get that with the lease assets. I don't see the stock going below 5.50 unless the perceived liabilities from the lawsuits are huge.
    Dec 19, 2014. 12:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Bad To Worse At ARCP [View article]
    EV, not trying to create FUD and I wish all the best, but what worried me was that she said Grant Thornton was involved. I don't see how the BOD could have been unaware of this, if true. That would bring the press conference under suspicion. The fact that Kay was let go isn't good for the BOD if they knew about the order to cover it up all along, and allowed Kay to depict it as a mistake. Remember, Kay said it was the CFO and CAO. If it was really him and the BOD knew about it and allowed him to lie in the CC, this could get really bad imo. It depends on what they knew and disclosed. I wish all the best, but I would advise caution. There may be a nice pop if it works out, but it could escalate.
    Dec 18, 2014. 03:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Bad To Worse At ARCP [View article]
    The problem is that if they even knew about the fraud, much more if the directed it, then they were lying in the CC that disclosed the whole mess, weren't they? They said it was a mistake that was covered up--bad judgment, not bad people. If they directed the fraud, then the conference call becomes another incident of damage doesn't it? (I'm not a lawyer and don't play one on TV). The billions in losses to shareholders then get linked to the damage done by the coverup after the problem was disclosed. The problem is if the audit committee and independent board members knew about this--they would then be part of it. This may spin out of control. I would be very careful. You might make money, but this could continue to escalate. GLTA.
    Dec 18, 2014. 03:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty: Schorsch Falls, AFFO Rises [View article]
    Their bonuses had AFFO triggers, and that worried me a lot. Fudging those numbers to get bigger bonuses might result in jail time, so that is why I thought Rendell's summary pointed away from a terrible outcome. FWIW, Moody's "junked" ARCP today. All bad. It is probably a buy, simply on valuation, but the risks have increased IMO. Stabilizing the patient moved from the ER, to a room, and now to the ICU. The FBI could induce a severe cardiac event, and they have to do it. GLTA.
    Dec 16, 2014. 02:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty: Schorsch Falls, AFFO Rises [View article]
    I think the resignation changes everything. The 15 AFFO guide was dependent on refinancing and a lot of new deals. The share count increases tremendously over this year's weighted average. 750 MM to 950MM shares makes AFFO comparisons tough. Also, the legal damages weren't much with three cents AFFO, but my fear is that the resignations mean there is more very bad news on the way. The conditinal tone used in the resignation (it is our understanding that XX has not been charged yet) makes it sound like the investigation is producing something bad for ARCP. The increased shares, along with all of the extra expenses and Cole issues, coupled to the inability to do new deals or refinance, could drive AFFO much lower than 1.00. If the new ARCP is led by a solid new team and they have .70 AFFO, with a .05 monthly dividend, I could see it getting back to the 9-10 dollar range in a couple of years. My hope for the low teens was based on Kay's CC and the three cents being accurate. GLTA.
    Dec 16, 2014. 10:15 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fresh rally for airline stocks on profit optimism [View news story]
    Michael, I like AAL a lot, but I would split my purchase up for safety. There are a lot of risks that are airline specific--accidents, equipment issues, etc. DAL, UAL, LUV, and HA are some of my other favorites. It is hard to imagine the fundamentals being any better. Oil is low; loads and yields are very strong, and they are all making wheelbarrows full of money right now. I expect AAL will make about $9-$10 per share in '15 if oil stays here and business stays strong (they could make more than that!). However, Mr. Market should be aware of that. If oil recoils or some other factor gets worse, might the stock go to an even more ridiculous level? Honestly, this feels like last year when Apple was at $400. People were seriously arguing that Apple had a long way to drop then, too.
    Dec 10, 2014. 08:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Good Times Restaurants Reports Earnings [View article]
    Yes, I believe BD of CO pays the 3% to BDFD, of which GTIM owns 48% and Hoback is the CEO. I probably wasn't clear. When I am saying franchised, I mean BDFD franchisees other than BD of CO or BDI--third (or more) parties. All of the stores in the guidance are BD of CO stores, not franchisees, so the 40-50% is GTIM. I think it is worth noting that they said they are already seeing margins in the high teens for the newest BD's, so that would take all (non-opeining related) fees into account.
    Dec 10, 2014. 04:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Good Times Restaurants Reports Earnings [View article]
    True, but the numbers I was discussing weren't for franchised BDs. Those numbers are for their own stores. They have a lot of potential with both.
    Dec 10, 2014. 12:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The In-Flight Music May Have Stopped: Time To Take Profits On Airlines [View article]
    001, I agree! Focusing on daily oil prices is a mistake. Where are they going to average is a better question. If you are going to put your money in cash, then maybe sell your airlines. If you are going to sell solid companies with forward PEs of less than 10, and buy an index fund with a forward PE of 20, it might not work out too well. Airlines are still some of, if not the cheapest, earnings you can invest in right now. Planes are very full. Oil is expected to be moderate, even if corrects back into the 70s. Fundamentals are very sound. So, taking profits is always good--except when the stock keeps going up at a higher rate than the rest of the market! GLTA.
    Dec 10, 2014. 09:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Independence Realty not budging from the lows after secondary [View news story]
    UTA, Thx for the update! I hope you meant early day sell off! It got so cheap yesterday morning, I actually added some!
    Dec 10, 2014. 08:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment