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  • The Perfect Storm For STAG [View article]
    I bought some STAG Wed! STAGe fright/REIT fright has finally put some good companies on sale. Great articles on the pullback, Brad.
    May 8, 2015. 07:43 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Silliness Of Tesla's 7kWh Powerwall Battery [View article]
    Paynowski, all electric, hot climate, 3BR, less than 2000 sq. ft. Good sized family. Started years ago at 125-150KWH per day in the hotter part of the summer. I went over every appliance, replaced the AC, put in passive hot water, improved insulation, replaced windows, LED bulbs, and the kids moved out. We are down to about 60KW a day in the summer (we do have a small pool). The wife insists on 75 in the day and 73 at night, or I think I could get it down to the 40s.
    May 6, 2015. 07:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Silliness Of Tesla's 7kWh Powerwall Battery [View article]
    Nirav, that is very, very atypical. Are you sure you aren't mistaken? A 2800 sq. ft. house in LA would likely need at least 4 tons of AC. Even a new and efficient system is going to use about 3.5KW/hr of run time in the day. So, you would only be running it a little over 5 hours a day for your entire usage! That is no other credit for lights, stove, etc. Hot water heater is about 5KW/hr, and 8-10KW is a good estimate for a family of four. If you are single and gone most of the time and keep everything but LED bulbs off, 550KW would be possible. Utilities have calculators and they will show you that a 2800 sq ft home with a family of four would use 1500-2500KW/month (depends on appliances). But, even if you use the tiny amount of electricity you said you use, you would still need a number of these batteries stacked together to handle the starting load of the motors.
    May 6, 2015. 07:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Good Times Restaurants Join The Burger Bubble? [View article]
    Ox, in addition to the articles, I highly recommend the original prospectus for the new share offering on GTIM's Investor Relations page (SEC filings). They discuss all of your questions in detail and they give a pro forma look at the new additions.
    May 6, 2015. 06:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Silliness Of Tesla's 7kWh Powerwall Battery [View article]
    Logical, it is actually a lot worse than you think. A point that is very poorly understood--even by Tesla, apparently--AC motors take a tremendous amount of current to start (air conditioners, pool pumps, washing machines, vacuum cleaners, etc.) Example: a typical 4 ton air conditioning unit might only use 3-4 KW per hour, but it might take ~12KW to start it up. You have to have the peak KW capability to start it!! It isn't optional, and you can fry your motor. You would need a very high peak KW to run the average American house. If you are connected to the grid, no problem. Neither the 7KW, nor the 10KW Tesla batteries have anywhere close to enough peak power to handle typical AC motors. Throw in an electric range and hot water heater, and you might need 20KW peak, or about 10X the size of the Tesla battery peak draw. They simply won't work as a whole house backup. You would have to stack many of these batteries.
    May 6, 2015. 05:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Independence Realty Trust Is Still Looking Like A Solid Investment [View article]
    On the half full side of the glass, it is extremely cheap, and yielding about 8.5%. Apartments should be a good investment with higher rates or another recession, so they work in most scenarios. Really, it is mostly about management. If they can start building per share metrics--FFO and dividends, I think they would see it snap back to the double digits. If they elect to ignore shareholder interests with more destructive dilutions, we could see the 6-7 range. They need to manage for shareholders and dilute more slowly.
    May 6, 2015. 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Good Times Restaurants Join The Burger Bubble? [View article]
    TS, I couldn't agree more. GTIM has two winning concepts, and there are a lot of synergies. From food purchases, to menus, to management expertise they have a lot of overlap. Also, they aren't newcomers. They are very experienced, but willing to learn and change. My one complaint has been how they raised capital a couple of years ago. They gave away shares. It looks like they may be learning there, too, and the recent hires may be helping. I think they either have some franchising lined up for BDBB, or they are planning *major* growth, and that is why they wanted to buy it out. Once they announce the growth plan, we should see a huge pop. 75 million would likely get them to 100 BDBB stores over the next few years, with just a little help from cash flow. At just under 3 million per restaurant, you can do the math. MCD has a P/S of almost 3.5. That would put GTIM's market cap at about 1 Bn, assuming ~300MM in revs. Throw in a P/S of SHAK and you could double that easily and probably more. GLTA.
    May 6, 2015. 09:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Independence Realty Trust Is Still Looking Like A Solid Investment [View article]
    I think it could be a trust issue. Management chose to dilute heavily, which is fine if it builds share value. The problem is that we would have to go up almost 30% just to get back to where they were less than a year ago! Mr. Market doesn't seem to be impressed with IRT mgmt, to say the least. That is one huge drop in share price, especially for a REIT. The fear could be that management is more interested in generating fee income for Rait than generating long term value for shareholders. That might be an unwarranted fear, but news of more share sales doesn't help. Some of the BDCs just keep doing this and eventually they cut the dividend as shareholder value and income erode. IRT needs to start showing some sharp increases in FFO per share and dividends per share--then the stock will take off and run dramatically. Dumping even more shares on the market will make this worse, I suspect.
    May 5, 2015. 01:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Independence Realty Trust ramps up [View news story]
    Anybody know much about Form D sales? It appears to be unlisted shares being sold? If they are selling unlisted shares of IRT, does that explain the huge drop in share price? Seems a bit odd to me, but I'm not familiar with Form D sales. Any explanation appreciated.
    May 5, 2015. 09:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Won't Have A $1 Trillion Market Capitalization Any Time Soon [View article]
    Brian, as an author you can attach your comments to the people you are replying to...you don't have to append to the bottom. Great article and points imo.
    May 1, 2015. 02:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Energy launches with a charge [View news story]
    @Siddarth
    >>did you not read that they can be stacked. 2kW is perfectly fine as a backup solution<<

    2KW is not fine for a backup solution! Read my post above yours. You have to handle the peak load of your system to run it. A typical American 3-4 BR house would require stacking 5-10 of these. Buying and installing them would cost a fortune. It would be much, much cheaper to get a whole house generator for backup. If you want solar power for a shed off of the grid, and something with very low power needs, this might work well. It will not work as a backup to the typical American house. In fact, three of them stacked wouldn't handle the typical American house.
    May 1, 2015. 01:58 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge & Iron: Untarnished By Pessimism [View article]
    Meanwhile the short interest keeps climbing, up to over 15 million shares as of Tax Day (4/15). It has climbed in every short interest report (twice a month) since last October when it was under 3 million shares. It is impossible to accurately estimate the artificial downward pressure this has put on CBI, but should any piece of good news hit the market we are in danger of having a vicious short squeeze. A settlement update on the plants, a new development from a big fish, even higher oil prices, etc. As I have said, the amazing thing to me is that the stock price has risen 50% while most of these shares have been borrowed and sold short. There is some big money buying those shorted shares. Assuming CBI buys back ~12 million shares in the next 19 months or so and we simply hit the guidance, I expect massive upward pressure (if not an outright squeeze).
    May 1, 2015. 01:40 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Energy launches with a charge [View news story]
    runiter, you need to google starting amps for an AC motor and read about that. Like I said, the starting wattage is much, much higher than the running wattage on AC motors. 3.5KW would be a typical running amount on an average 4 ton unit (it varies a bit with temperatures). You would likely need 10-12KW to start the motor even though it runs at 3.5KW. How Elon Musk could not know this is just bizarre to me, runiter! That system will not start a typical home air conditioner (or keep it running in an outage). The thing you have to remember is that it has to handle all of the potential loads--Fridge, AC, hot water heater, etc. That is why it takes ~25KW as a peak number. It may use an average of 2-6KW per hour, but you still need the higher peak number. A lot of people mistakenly buy a 10KW generator thinking it will run their house because they only use 60-100KW a day. The bottom line is that the typical house would likely need 5-10 of these systems to keep it running during an outage.
    May 1, 2015. 12:55 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Won't Have A $1 Trillion Market Capitalization Any Time Soon [View article]
    The talk back in 2012 was about $1000 on the stock. A lot of people thought it was just crazy and lampooned it. Well, that is just an equivalent of low $140s, which I think we will see soon. A trillion will be harder because the buyback reduces the market cap while the stock price increases, as the author pointed out.
    May 1, 2015. 12:09 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Energy launches with a charge [View news story]
    runiter, one more point: remember, electricity isn't like a bank account. Your system has to handle the spikes as well as the total. When an AC motor starts it uses a lot more than rated power. If you want to run a typical house, you might need 25KW peak capability (depends on the house and loads). So, yes you might be using 48KW per day in an apartment, but you still need the high peak capability to run your motors and bigger items. I am not invested either way on TSLA, as I have just started looking at the stock, but it would really, really worry me if I thought the CEO is pushing this and he doesn't have the slightest clue about how much amperage it takes to start an AC motor!!!
    May 1, 2015. 11:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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