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  • Chevy Bolt Will Hurt Nissan And BMW, Not Tesla  [View article]
    The PR should be good for EVs in general, so the author makes a good point; however, PR can work both ways. If the Bolt also shows the weaknesses of EVs compared to ICE powered cars and hybrids, that could be bad for Tesla. For instance, when lithium batteries catch fire they rage like nothing you have seen. The public doesn't understand the fire risk.

    http://trib.in/1OTQKDs

    One spectacular fire in an owner's garage and EVs could lose favor quickly. Also, all batteries are limited by cycles. You may get 5 years, and you may get 7, but a new battery for one of these things will likely cost a lot more than a new engine and transmission for an ICE powered car. Who wants to commit to a new engine and transmission every seven years? Also, that *will* be factored into resale value. EVs will lose value very quickly as they age. We aren't even in the first inning on EVs. Until they can get the battery replacement price down to an affordable amount, and/or they can get the price of a new vehicle down below ICE prices, EVs probably won't go mainstream--they will be a novelty toy for the rich and the ill informed.
    Jan 8, 2016. 06:28 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is oil in the $20s an inevitable reality?  [View news story]
    Teens are certainly possible, and the 20s appear likely. The weird thing is that crude oil has dropped off of the cliff, but my local gasoline prices are holding up extremely well. There seems to be a disconnect. If the price of gas at the pump drops to the 1-1.50 range, I think demand will increase. Maybe it's taxes, and maybe it is middlemen. Lower prices haven't reached the consumer in full force.
    Jan 7, 2016. 08:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Benefits From CES Inclusion Of EV Industry  [View article]
    It's a fast breaking ball game. This is from GM's PR site on the Bolt:

    "An advanced lithium-ion battery provides over 200 miles of all-electric range, and with DC fast-charging capability, an 80 percent charge can be achieved in less than 45 minutes."

    Assuming this can be deployed practically, ~160 miles of range in less than 45 minutes of charge time is a big jump. That makes EVs usable for road trips. You would have to stop for a long coffee break or lunch every 2.5 hours, but this is still doable if you really need to go somewhere beyond the battery's range. CES should create a lot of favorable PR for all of the EV players. Informative article!
    Dec 31, 2015. 08:03 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CorEnergy Infrastructure Trust: The Baby Has Been Thrown Out With The Bathwater  [View article]
    Thx for the great discussion, gents! Steve, what are your thoughts here: SWAN, only brief and carefully planned naps, or high risk--no sleeping allowed?
    Dec 29, 2015. 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CorEnergy Infrastructure Trust: The Baby Has Been Thrown Out With The Bathwater  [View article]
    Superb article, and I own a little myself! A couple of questions: can't the BK judge mandate reworking the leases? Everybody gets asked and pressured for a haircut? That could be scaring Mr. Market, as could sub $2 gas and 70 degree weather in NY. If gas stays practically free and they go BK, they won't have a real strong position, as the surviving entity won't be making any money off of the gas; they can't pay money they don't have. I would love to back up the truck here, but I would hate to go over the cliff while I'm backing...GLTA.
    Dec 22, 2015. 05:09 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perhaps The Third Time Is The Charm For Lexington Realty  [View article]
    Brad, I saw the impairment charge and wondered what that was--any idea on why they took that charge on a very profitable property/sale? Thx.
    Dec 22, 2015. 12:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital: Insiders Are Jumping Into The Breach, Should You Follow?  [View article]
    Take a look at the 10 year chart on PSEC--down, down, and more down. *Every* bounce has been followed by a larger selloff for ten years, and there has been a lot of insider buying on the way down. If PSEC goes up ~300-400% from recent lows, we might get back to about where it was a decade ago! Great stock charts generally don't look like that. If the mgmt team was in danger of not being elected and they have requested permission to sell hundreds of millions of new shares because of finance issues, could the insider buying really be a sign of desperation on their part? Are rising rates likely to help? We could be at a short term trading buy point here, but I would be careful--the dividend looks great until the next big dividend cut. I agree it is cheap, but when has it not been? Food for thought, and GLTA.
    Dec 16, 2015. 06:41 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Bluerock Residential Becoming A Prime Time Player?  [View article]
    Very high WACC is another risk...
    Dec 14, 2015. 09:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley: iPhone sales to decline next year  [View news story]
    IMO, she has been one of the best and most accurate Apple analysts. I would take this particular warning seriously, realizing it isn't a disaster call...GLTA.
    Dec 14, 2015. 08:32 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Non-Public REITs, 'Murder Holes', And UDF; Petrobras Downgraded Again - Bezek's Daily Briefing  [View article]
    One of your better quotes ever, and worth repeating here, from this article:

    "Whenever I see a company being compensated by growing assets under management (or empire building) it suggests that the investor is going to always be the last one standing when the music stops."

    I might add that insider buying in these situations seems to be one of the elixirs that get normally bright investors to join this musical chairs game.
    Dec 11, 2015. 07:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Non-Public REITs, 'Murder Holes', And UDF; Petrobras Downgraded Again - Bezek's Daily Briefing  [View article]
    I was seriously considering hitting the buy button yesterday when it got down to the 10s--the auditor recently affirmed the accuracy of the accounting for UDF since 2012 in the 8K from last month, and they show net assets of almost $17 a share. Then I noticed one of the key names from the ARCP scandal was on the board of one of the UDF iterations...never mind. This could be an opportunity because hedge funds appear to be behind this attack and UDF has suggested they are illegally manipulating UDF's price. A couple of links show who could be involved if they are accurate. Some hedge funds appear to be getting desperate, so who knows how this will shake out....GLTA.

    http://bit.ly/1NRKoEn

    http://yhoo.it/1Z2pA54
    Dec 11, 2015. 06:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • United Development Funding IV plunges  [View news story]
    I put this on the other story, and, if true, it gives insight into which funds are leading the short attack on UDF:

    I found a couple of more links with pertinent info. At a minimum, it sounds like a couple of hedge funds might be leading the short attack, assuming the stories are correct.

    http://yhoo.it/1Z2pA54

    http://bit.ly/1Z2pA52
    Dec 10, 2015. 09:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ponzi scheme alleged at United Development Funding  [View news story]
    I found a couple of more links with pertinent info. At a minimum, it sounds like a couple of hedge funds might be leading the short attack, assuming the stories are correct.

    http://bit.ly/1Z2pA52

    http://yhoo.it/1Z2pA54
    Dec 10, 2015. 09:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • United Development Funding IV plunges  [View news story]
    JANFA, I believe they declined (quit as UDF's auditor) but wrote a letter afterwards agreeing with that statement. I take that to mean that whatever caused them to decline, it wasn't an accounting problem at UDF in that period. If Greenlaw has been Madoff Jr. since 2012, he is doing it with proper accounting at UDF, as far as the auditor believes. I'm talking about the public company and not the other UDF entities there. Maybe they will clarify soon.
    Dec 10, 2015. 05:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • United Development Funding IV plunges  [View news story]
    Well, I looked, yosh, and the 8K does address some of these issues. The auditor, Whitley Penn, wrote a letter after declining and agreeing with this statement:

    "During the Company’s two most recent fiscal years and the subsequent interim period from January 1, 2015 through September 30, 2015, (i) there were no disagreements between the Company and Whitley Penn on any matters of accounting principles or practices, financial statement disclosure or auditing scope or procedure, which disagreements, if not resolved to the satisfaction of Whitley Penn, would have caused Whitley Penn to make reference to the subject matter of the disagreement in its report on the Company’s consolidated financial statements, and (ii) there were no “reportable events” as that term is defined in Item 304(a)(1)(v) of Regulation S-K."

    This could be a nightmare, and it could be an opportunity because they reported almost $17 a share in net assets. We'll see.
    Dec 10, 2015. 04:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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