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  • Record opening weekend iPhone sales [View news story]
    Cincy, a couple of reasons. 16GB is more worthless than ever, much like an 8GB phone from 3-4 years ago. More customers will have to jump to larger flash models and that drives ASPs aggressively. The other factor is that this is the first year that they will have two new models in the new segment and two in the one year old segment, and the one year old 6 plus is the same price as a new 6S. The average price of iPhones has risen sharply over the last three years. The plus model, like the memory, is mostly profit--very little extra cost. FX will continue to be a headwind, so the net effect won't be huge. My guess is about $700. Two things make the sales numbers difficult this year--the faster rollout schedule, and the break in the quarter over this last weekend. We may get more sales shoved into the 1Q, which could end up getting them out of my top end by a few million. I thought 80-85MM based on production estimates before I saw this number. An ASP of $700 and low 80s on units would give them ~10% revenue growth YOY for 1Q. Flat sales of 75MM (which would really be down because of the issues mentioned above) would still give them single digit growth with higher ASPs.
    Sep 28, 2015. 12:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Record opening weekend iPhone sales [View news story]
    Sales are flat with last year when you factor China and NZ. 70-80MM phones in the holiday qtr appears perfect. The bad news for bears is that this has been more than discounted already. With ASPs going up and the buyback taking effect, Apple is selling for about 10-11X next year's earnings (if we assume flat sales) with a 50% credit for net cash. Apple is much cheaper than the market indexes even with a flat year. Apple is way, way cheaper than the high flyers. GLTA.
    Sep 28, 2015. 11:28 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New iPhone 6s hits stores Friday [View news story]
    I think sometimes Apple is a victim of their own excellent design--their products can last a long time. I went in to check out the phones at my very close Apple store and they are nice. They look identical to last year, but once it starts thumping you the difference is noticeable. I liked the phones, but I made the mistake of playing with the new Mini 4--that is what I left the store wanting!
    Sep 25, 2015. 05:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New iPhone 6s hits stores Friday [View news story]
    If it's 11-12MM, I would buy some puts for next week, although I doubt Apple would release the numbers if it was that bad...
    Sep 25, 2015. 03:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Good Times Restaurants - A Tasty Buy [View article]
    GTIM has had a fantastic record of same store sales over the last few years, and with the addition of BD's, they are just getting started. We have had a large influx of short sales and that is artificially depressing the stock to current levels imo. If GTIM announces good earnings I think we get a squeeze...time to add. GLTA.
    Sep 25, 2015. 02:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New iPhone 6s hits stores Friday [View news story]
    Disagree, Gary. It is all about growth. 12-13MM looks flat when you consider China and NZ are in this year's number and they weren't in last year's 10MM. I think the analysts are trying to lower expectations. 14-15MM looks like the single digit growth I expect. Apple should still have a great qtr because ASPs will go up again (by a little). Moving above 15MM significantly should be viewed as a big beat imo.
    Sep 25, 2015. 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Proper Introduction To New Residential Investment Corp (Part 2) [View article]
    >>85% of our portfolio is backed by credit impaired borrowers,<<

    That is in the recent CC transcript published on SA. So, they are buying distressed loan MSR's hoping rates go up and they don't get refinanced and that they don't default? Whew. This could be the greatest thing since Berkshire stock hit the market, and it could be run by another Madoff wannabe for all I know. I don't really understand how they make money and reading a good bit didn't help much. I'll keep trying...
    Sep 24, 2015. 04:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: Apple steps up electric car efforts, aims for 2019 shipping date [View news story]
    Apple could do it, terry, but it would be expensive. My thoughts were similar to SDNS above--they will need lots of mechanical engs, some aero engs, and a few thousand of other types to pull it off. I just don't see them having the same circle of competence that they have in electronics. I considered the possibility that BMW might do a JV with them, supplying the missing engineering/mfring parts. I think Apple would be fantastic at designing the interface. They could have discovered a battery breakthrough or something like that, but absent some type of big advantage, I think they will find it tough sledding. They study and study all kinds of products, spending a lot on them, but next to none of them ever see the light of day--that was my point with the rumored TV. If they do a JV with BMW, I would think that would alienate the other car makers and might hurt their electronics franchise. Finally, suppose they come out with a 90KWH powered dream for 25K and take over cars like they have phones. I don't see them getting by with that without having to break up the company due to antitrust issues. I think they are in danger of that now, as they are pretty close to monopoly status in computers and phones.
    Sep 23, 2015. 07:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Be An Investment Hero: Avoid The Temptation Of That Brazilian ETF [View article]
    I don't know....4 Reals to the USD is going to make exports boom, isn't it? Planes, coffee, iron ore, you name it, all half price.
    Sep 23, 2015. 04:45 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 13 Economic Charts That Wall Street Doesn't Want You To See [View article]
    crushed, once you destroy that wealth in the crash the spinoff will be devastating. With oil and commodities sucking wind, draining a few trillion in investor wealth will put the economy in the grave. Maybe the shorts want them to raise rates, but generally what is good for the shorts is terrible for investors and main street. They can raise rates as soon as the economy shows some life or inflation wakes up a little.
    Sep 23, 2015. 04:24 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 13 Economic Charts That Wall Street Doesn't Want You To See [View article]
    clo, one thing is sure, it doesn't hurt to put those orders in, whether they hit or not. If you had done that on some of the ETFs, they would have hit in late Aug.
    Sep 23, 2015. 04:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 13 Economic Charts That Wall Street Doesn't Want You To See [View article]
    Diesel, I agree. I think Gary's charts make a good case for very low rates. I am amazed that some people think we need to raise rates; instant recession would likely be the outcome, if we aren't slowing already! The market action of the last few weeks makes a good case for diversification imo. There are so many currents it is hard to predict what will do well. I'm happy with my recently added REITs, as rates appear to be stable, and yields are very high because of discounting for much higher rates and general pessimism, and they are less subject to FX concerns. Going forward there isn't much to get excited about. Bonds are already sky high, with very little return likely; cash is zero; the market is correcting a bit to factor in FX effects, poor EM fundamentals, and energy, so a bit lower overall, even though most US companies are still doing fine. However, that drives technicals and HFT's and such to hit the indexes, so indexing isn't working well either. Bonds, cash, indexing--no easy returns to be had in the usual fishing holes. I think we are in a stagnant market where stock/sector picking is your only hope to achieve a decent return; that is a change of pace from the recent past, and, of course, there is always risk of something unforeseen. Selling options (premiums are very high), REITs, well managed companies in good spots--that is what I like. GLTA.
    Sep 23, 2015. 02:28 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chatham Has The SALSA That Could Return 50% [View article]
    siesta, I think the latter. Last week PEB sneezed and that gave all lodging REITs the flu:

    Could be a great time to add, and it could be the first wave over the bow in a coming storm.
    Sep 23, 2015. 08:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Volkswagen's Scandal Is Bad But May Present Buying Opportunity [View article]
    My thought was that competitors to VW will benefit from their weakness and pulling a lot of their models off the market to bring them into compliance. That probably will take some time. I suspect TM would be a big beneficiary through Toyota and Lexus.
    Sep 22, 2015. 09:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons To Strike While The Iron Is Hot For This 5.5% Yielder [View article]
    Joe, assuming we were to have a slow down/recession at some point, how to do hotel REITs hold up? I own a number of REITs, but I have avoided hotels and wouldn't mind owning a little for diversification. These are obviously not luxury hotels; I would call them middle class hotels in nice areas, which I think I like. In a big slow down they would be competing with a lot of nice rooms, though. Also, the projected AFFO is ~ twice the dividend? That seems quite low on the payout. Much better not to cut by being conservative, I guess. Thx for the article.
    Sep 22, 2015. 06:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment