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  • Apple: The Bull Comes Back [View article]
    Ernest, remember the value can go up or down extremely fast and the increase or loss goes to shareholders--that is how you make a profit. Apple doesn't have to raise the 225Bn to get the price to go up. They could halt Apple and it could open up at $155 tonight. It could go up or down 100Bn in the blink of an eye. Having said that, I doubt it will move to $170 this week!!
    Apr 27, 2015. 12:52 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Bull Comes Back [View article]
    Sami, actually Apple is deeply discounted right now based on current fundamentals. They really don't need perfection; they simply need the same valuation as the NSDQ 100 to get to $170 this afternoon. That gives zero extra credit for cash.
    Apr 27, 2015. 12:07 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge & Iron N.V.'s (CBI) CEO Philip Asherman on Q1 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Two points: the price action on CBI continues to be interesting. It gets driven lower (possibly by new short positions?) and then the big buying kicks in and drives it higher, and this has been the pattern. Shorts have been piling into CBI for the last few months, and the last report was showing almost a million new shares shorted each week. This move, again, looks quite similar, so I will be very interested in the next short interest report. The bears try to take CBI down artificially and all they end up with is higher prices and more outstanding days to cover. CBI is a coiled spring. I would be really nervous about being short with almost two full weeks to cover. Second point: I don't know if anyone is looking, but the forward PE for the major averages is still twice CBI's valuation--CBI is about half price right now. Any resolutions or good news could drive CBI right back to the $80-$100 range in a matter of days. Even a price of $100 leaves CBI a bit undervalued this AM relative to the forward price for the S&P 500.
    Apr 27, 2015. 11:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Bull Comes Back [View article]
    Harm, the other point I usually check on is valuation. As of this AM (Friday's numbers), the forward PE estimate of the NSDQ 100 is 19.54. That would make Apple $170+ with the current earnings estimates and zero extra credit for cash, if it simply had the same valuation as the NSDQ 100 today! Apple is the value pick; Apple is the growth pick. The problem is disappointment, as Mr. Market stands ready to pounce on any apparent weakness. But, as you said, any weakness that isn't justified by horrible news is likely to be a buying opp. I would not underestimate the PR machine at Apple on the Watch. I would bet a lot that they will announce "incredible" sales that just "blew away" the various execs, even though they probably won't mention many, if any, actual numbers. That is investable, as are iPhone sales. Guidance will be key, obviously. I would not be surprised by the 140s on a strong report, nor would I be surprised by the 1+teens on any weakness. GLTA.
    Apr 27, 2015. 10:40 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dave Ramsey's 12% Return Strategy Is Replicable [View article]
    Thomas, I enjoyed the column, but:

    >>Anyone who has studied the bible will see multiple verses and proverbs warning about debt and usury. For Dave and other Christians, profiting from debt would be considered a sin, so one should not do it.<<

    That is not true. Millions have studied the Bible and concluded that collecting interest is fine; usury is not fine. There is a difference, and you seem to confuse them. You might read a good book on the Reformation if you would like to learn more about the subject. I do agree with you that Ramsey gets a lot of great advice out to the masses--get out of debt, have some emergency savings, and invest for future needs. Your quibbling over the exact return since the 1920s is kind of like arguing with somebody about exactly how much their blood sugar and pressure will go down if they eat healthier, lose weight and exercise--you run the risk of obscuring the message! The point is to get started today eating a healthy diet, losing weight, and exercising. Don't get distracted worrying about whether your systolic number will drop by 10 or 12!
    Apr 25, 2015. 08:37 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: A Small Change In Apple Maps, A Giant Leap Into Mobile Ads [View article]
    beefy, watch out for Apple TV rumors! We have earnings, news of watch sales (rumored to be way more than expected), dividend and buyback news, and WWDC coming one after another over the next few weeks! I think Apple TV could end up being bigger economically than the Watch. It depends on what Apple brings to the table...it could be another huge announcement! 150 is not off the table by summer, but certainly not 135-140, barring any negative surprises.
    Apr 15, 2015. 02:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: A Small Change In Apple Maps, A Giant Leap Into Mobile Ads [View article]
    Lest we all forget, something big has been telegraphed for WWDC in early June. Apple TV is going to take a giant leap in capability and has great potential to add significant revenue. Some of the most reliable Apple rumor sites are saying it is likely to happen. Even with an A8X, the Apple TV will be capable of everything the current box can do plus a whole lot more. TV programming, which people can watch on the go (most likely) on their iPad, along with Homekit, and gaming. I think it is going to be huge, and all accretive, in addition to the Watch. Apple hasn't rolled out a new product outside of Fall in years (except for Mac updates). This year is going to have a lot of new revenue--TV programming, Apple TVs, Watch, and who knows what else (mobile ads?). BTW, I agree the phone is selling like hotcakes, and the latest rumors are that they have another major update coming this Fall, skipping the S year we have come to know and love. GLTA.
    Apr 15, 2015. 02:17 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citi: BofA a buy on valuation and rate hikes [View news story]
    I agree, and I'm looking for the divvy to double over the next couple of years with an increase of about 50% on the stock--and that is with the same boring story we have now. Tailwinds and being depressed make all the difference. Of course, BAC may always find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory! GLTA.
    Apr 15, 2015. 02:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America Q1 2015 Earnings: Disappointment All Around [View article]
    I think some money will shift out of REITs and other yield strategies into financials in anticipation of higher rates. BAC should move up. Lots could go wrong, but tailwinds, as opposed to the headwinds they have been through, should make the difference. BAC could double their divvy and the stock could go up 50% over the next couple of years, pretty much on cruise control...good value investment.
    Apr 15, 2015. 02:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Good Business That Is Still On Sale [View article]
    Just an update for the CBI investors: latest short interest shows CBI increasing almost a million shares a week to ~14.5 million total! Tremendous artificial pressure holding CBI down and the shares continue to rally--very bullish. With almost two full weeks to cover, a big positive news event could cause a massive rally. Rising oil prices may even cause a squeeze.
    Apr 15, 2015. 12:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Citi: BofA a buy on valuation and rate hikes [View news story]
    I have been buying some BAC for the very reasons mentioned. The winds are shifting. If you wait until it is obvious, you miss the pop. Here is the key for me: interest rates and more capital returned to shareholders make BAC attractive for the next couple of years. I wouldn't bet the farm, but this looks like a very nice value play at these levels. GLTA.
    Apr 15, 2015. 12:29 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett Financial Analysis Template: Chicago Bridge And Iron Company [View article]
    Just an update for those following CBI: short interest continued to climb at the rate of almost a million shares a week, growing to almost 14.5 million shares short. All while the stock continues to rally. If the ~6 million shares had not been sold short over the last couple of months, the price would be much higher. It has been held down artificially. But, just like rising debt on a credit card can get you to a point of no return, dangerously high short levels can cause massive squeezes on good news events. And, who is buying all of those shares? It takes a lot of buying for the shares to rise 50-60% at the same time short interest increases 70%! If CBI announced something big, or an increase in shares owned by a big investor was announced, we could see a staggering rally. Just the rising oil price should make a sober short nervous.
    Apr 15, 2015. 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CBI Gives Investors False Hope [View article]
    >>do you close your shorts yet ?????<<

    I doubt it! The latest short interest shows CBI's level taking off like a Saturn V rocket to almost 14.5 million shares! That is almost two straight weeks of full trading days to cover. CBI is planning on buying back at least 10% of outstanding shares by the end of next year. We are setting up for a huge squeeze if they don't get some terrible news pretty soon. Rising oil prices could cause a short squeeze at these levels! Roughly 25 million shares is the total, or almost a full month of trading days to buy all of those shares. Since the lows in the 30s a couple of months ago, CBI has risen over 50%, but that has happened while 6 million more shares have been sold short, or about a 70% increase. I suspect the shorts are selling their shares to some very large institutions/investors. We would need tremendous buying power to overcome that kind of artificial selling pressure driving shares lower. CBI is a coiled spring. Does it break, or does it propel the shares to the 70s in a few days of covering frenzy? We'll see.
    Apr 15, 2015. 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple And Wearable Devices: Moving From A Want To A Need By 2020 [View article]
    >>AAPL is an innovative company but I'm just not feeling the watch. Perpetually charging my watch sounds like a downer to me. I also don't find it attractive enough to wear on a regular basis. It looks clunky.<<

    Ptatty, I agree. You do have to put one on to feel it, but I got in to see it and I won't be buying one in this gen. I have a Mac, iPhone, and iPad, so I am a pretty good customer. But, there are a lot of people who collect watches and there are a lot of people who will buy anything Apple sells, so I expect the 1st gen Watch to be a commercial success. They aren't going to release the sales numbers, so we will just get "awesome," "incredible," and other descriptors for how sales are going. I bring this up for investment purposes. They likely had another blowout qtr on the phones, and it will overcome weak iPad sales. They have a new TV box coming in June, if the rumors are correct. All of this is against a backdrop of the last few years where Apple hasn't rolled *any* significant new products outside of the Fall timeframe. Apple is still a very strong buy until they disappoint on phone sales. This is all accretive, and Apple PR has control of the vertical and horizontal on what we hear about Watch sales! The news will be "incredible!" This is likely a nice dip to buy.
    Apr 13, 2015. 09:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch Pre-Order Sellout: Have The Pundits Underestimated Apple Again? [View article]
    Thx, Eric. I think we will see a lot more new products this year. The extra product categories will all be accretive, so it's all good for Apple stock.
    Apr 10, 2015. 06:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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