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  • American Realty Capital Properties: Another Small Step In The Right Direction [View article]
    Thanks, AD! Congrats on your timing. It depends on context and stakes on believing politicians. One thing I do believe is that they have an unusually strong sense of self-preservation. It seems to go with the territory. I'm looking hard every day, but believe it or not, I'm close to 30% cash right now. Any great ideas? HE
    Nov 17, 2014. 06:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties: Another Small Step In The Right Direction [View article]
    They were buying stock with their own money and they have lost millions on the great anxiety and panic attack, so far. They didn't sell any. Wouldn't that point to being unaware of fraud? Kay bought 6MM in early October alone! He didn't have to do that. He has lost millions on ARCP, too. I think they really believe in the assets and income. You can call him stupid if you want, but I don't think he was aware of any problems. Let's remind ourselves that crooks usually sell their stock before the scandal breaks. Insiders have a marvelous record in general. Insiders have been buying ARCP stock heavily, and that usually means the company will do well. They have lost a fortune, too, but the game isn't over yet.
    Nov 17, 2014. 01:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Doubled My Position In American Realty Capital Properties Last Week [View article]
    raif, yes, that article and information is about RCAP's books, not ARCP's! The comments by the accounting professor on multiple books is all about RCAP.
    Nov 17, 2014. 12:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties, Inc. - Shareholder/Analyst Call [View article]
    Alex, did you see today's announcement by DB that they abandoning the CDS business on individual companies? Those types of scenarios are exactly what regulators are looking to hammer.
    Nov 17, 2014. 12:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Doubled My Position In American Realty Capital Properties Last Week [View article]
    Thx, I thought you were talking about ARCP having issues. I didn't realize that it was about RCAP, not ARCP.
    Nov 17, 2014. 12:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Doubled My Position In American Realty Capital Properties Last Week [View article]
    Jack, what are you talking about specifically? Could you give us the actual accusations on the accounting in question, please? There is so much speculation and conditional phrasing in that paragraph, it is quite tough to follow. Thx.
    Nov 17, 2014. 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties, Inc. - Shareholder/Analyst Call [View article]
    I understand and share some of your frustration, but I disagree. JPM had all of the '08/'09 overhang and it was a big scandal that could have destroyed the company. The FBI believed that JPM people lied to cover up billions, and it was just huge. They did charge people, and it cost JPM billions. I was invested in JPM during that one, and I remember it well; it also took a lot of fortitude to buy--the panic and fear were just gripping. ARCP is a much simpler organism. They own real estate they are leasing. Let's take a look at what they reiterated as still correct: the weighted average lease is over 12 years, and the tenants are almost 50% investment grade. They had 382MM in revs last quarter and interest was less than 100MM. That leaves serious room for error and 282MM left over to pay their bills. I think they will figure out a way to get through this. That is a small fraction of what they reiterated, btw.
    Nov 17, 2014. 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties, Inc. - Shareholder/Analyst Call [View article]
    Jack,
    Just look at the JPM scandal as an example. It involved thousands of times more money, the FBI, allegations of fraud, cover-up, etc. And, they were still trying to extradite and charge the accused, last I checked. Even though that was a legitimate and huge problem, if you bought the scandal you roughly doubled your money in a couple of years! The question is how bad is the problem at ARCP, and do we have any clues as to severity? Why would E&Y still be working for ARCP if the press conference was a big lie? Why would Kay say the annual dividend is not affected if he knew there would be a problem? Do you think outside counsel and E&Y would have advised ARCP to go ahead and pretend '13 is fine without even taking a cursory glance first? If ARCP keeps the divvy and goes back up about 3 bucks in the next five years, you have a double. Is their risk of your impending doom scenario? Yes, but I think it is unlikely. I suspect this storm will be in the rearview mirror in a couple of years. Mr. Market almost always over does the selling in panic situations. The weird aspect of this one is that it is only over about 3 cents AFFO, as far as we know. Tiny and insignificant compared to a lot of bad situations that didn't sell of as far, and didn't have the level of panic. Caveat Emptor, though.
    Nov 17, 2014. 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties, Inc. - Shareholder/Analyst Call [View article]
    It is behind the WSJ paywall, so it locks out non-subscribers, but this article from OPI quotes it,
    http://bit.ly/1qdpZ7w

    Rendell has a JD, btw, and is very familiar with WS. They have the link as the source.
    Nov 17, 2014. 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties, Inc. - Shareholder/Analyst Call [View article]
    Minuteman, I posted this on another story, but I think this is why ARCP will rebound:

    As you know, a former governor and DNC chair is on the board and he publicly stated (via a WSJ article) that the market was making a mountain out of a molehill on this issue and that it doesn't affect the business--it is basically an ancillary problem. No doubt, he knows what is going on, and I don't think he would stick his neck out if there were much bigger issues. What would he have to gain in lying? Nothing, but he would have a lot to lose. ARCP said in the conference call that the annual dividend is not affected, but even if they cut the dividend 10%, didn't raise it once, and the stock didn't budge till 2019 we are looking at well over a 50% gain. If they don't cut the dividend as they stated and the stock bounces back $3, we have pretty close to 100% in five years, or about 15% per year.
    Nov 17, 2014. 09:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties: Another Small Step In The Right Direction [View article]
    That isn't the only clue, either, Cap'n. As you know, a former governor and DNC chair is on the board and he publicly stated (via a WSJ article) that the market was making a mountain out of a molehill on this issue and that it doesn't affect the business--it is basically an ancillary problem. No doubt, he knows what is going on, and I don't think he would stick his neck out if there were much bigger issues. What would he have to gain in lying? Nothing, but he would have a lot to lose. ARCP said in the conference call that the annual dividend is not affected, but even if they cut the dividend 10%, didn't raise it once, and the stock didn't budge till 2019 we are looking at well over a 50% gain. If they don't cut the dividend as they stated and the stock bounces back $3, we have pretty close to 100% in five years, or about 15% per year.
    Nov 17, 2014. 09:49 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty won't report Q3 until January [View news story]
    On the reopening: I doubt Rendell would have gone public with calling this whole incident a molehill that some were trying to make into a mountain if he didn't have a good idea about it. I have to admit, I have never seen this level of hysteria on just about any investing subject on SA. It's bizarre. There are some level-headed guys who are negative, like nsolot, but some of these guys need help if they are investors. There are clearly some agendas being pushed. Maybe they are associated with lawsuits? A few have admitted to being short. Maybe some represent hedge funds who are trying to accumulate ARCP on the cheap? Who knows? Obviously, if Rendell said that and it comes to light that there is some kind of major problem, he will lose a lot of credibility. Why would a governor and DNC chairman risk that? BTW, I'm a Republican, so I don't suffer from hero worship in this case. I also doubt E&Y didn't have a real good idea prior to the PR conference call a couple of weeks ago. They went straight to outside counsel and E&Y who had unfettered access for six weeks.
    Nov 15, 2014. 06:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty won't report Q3 until January [View news story]
    Are we betting on the patient, or the patient's estate value?
    Nov 15, 2014. 08:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties, Inc. - Shareholder/Analyst Call [View article]
    Actually, these comments *will probably* make another good case study on why the average mutual fund manager doesn't beat the index, and why the average investor doesn't do as well as the mutual fund manager. The secret is in the underpriced and unloved assets in the index. The mistake is thinking average investors and mutual fund managers are stupid. They are very smart people like many of those commenting here. How many people were buying real estate after the '08 panic?
    Nov 15, 2014. 08:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty won't report Q3 until January [View news story]
    Thx, didn't have my laptop when I asked.
    Nov 15, 2014. 07:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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