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  • CBI Gives Investors False Hope [View article]
    >>do you close your shorts yet ?????<<

    I doubt it! The latest short interest shows CBI's level taking off like a Saturn V rocket to almost 14.5 million shares! That is almost two straight weeks of full trading days to cover. CBI is planning on buying back at least 10% of outstanding shares by the end of next year. We are setting up for a huge squeeze if they don't get some terrible news pretty soon. Rising oil prices could cause a short squeeze at these levels! Roughly 25 million shares is the total, or almost a full month of trading days to buy all of those shares. Since the lows in the 30s a couple of months ago, CBI has risen over 50%, but that has happened while 6 million more shares have been sold short, or about a 70% increase. I suspect the shorts are selling their shares to some very large institutions/investors. We would need tremendous buying power to overcome that kind of artificial selling pressure driving shares lower. CBI is a coiled spring. Does it break, or does it propel the shares to the 70s in a few days of covering frenzy? We'll see.
    Apr 15, 2015. 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple And Wearable Devices: Moving From A Want To A Need By 2020 [View article]
    >>AAPL is an innovative company but I'm just not feeling the watch. Perpetually charging my watch sounds like a downer to me. I also don't find it attractive enough to wear on a regular basis. It looks clunky.<<

    Ptatty, I agree. You do have to put one on to feel it, but I got in to see it and I won't be buying one in this gen. I have a Mac, iPhone, and iPad, so I am a pretty good customer. But, there are a lot of people who collect watches and there are a lot of people who will buy anything Apple sells, so I expect the 1st gen Watch to be a commercial success. They aren't going to release the sales numbers, so we will just get "awesome," "incredible," and other descriptors for how sales are going. I bring this up for investment purposes. They likely had another blowout qtr on the phones, and it will overcome weak iPad sales. They have a new TV box coming in June, if the rumors are correct. All of this is against a backdrop of the last few years where Apple hasn't rolled *any* significant new products outside of the Fall timeframe. Apple is still a very strong buy until they disappoint on phone sales. This is all accretive, and Apple PR has control of the vertical and horizontal on what we hear about Watch sales! The news will be "incredible!" This is likely a nice dip to buy.
    Apr 13, 2015. 09:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch Pre-Order Sellout: Have The Pundits Underestimated Apple Again? [View article]
    Thx, Eric. I think we will see a lot more new products this year. The extra product categories will all be accretive, so it's all good for Apple stock.
    Apr 10, 2015. 06:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch Pre-Order Sellout: Have The Pundits Underestimated Apple Again? [View article]
    That's funny, NYLA! I'm one of the perennial Apple bulls, here. You should get out more! I am objective, though, and not afraid to criticize weaknesses I see. I criticized Apple for being slow to bring little screens to iPad, way too slow to bring big screens to the iPhone, and also built in radios to laptops (like the iPad). They haven't come through with the last one yet, but like my recommendation on smaller iPads and bigger phones, they will sell like hotcakes! Radios on the watch will do wonders, too. Just for the record, I'm not negative on the long term prospects for the watch at all. I think it will be a great product down the road when they add more capability. Until then, I think the addressable market is very limited. In addition to standalone LTE and voice, GPS, sleep monitoring, better water proofing, and better battery life will happen in time, and these features will make the watch a must have product.
    Apr 10, 2015. 05:40 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch Pre-Order Sellout: Have The Pundits Underestimated Apple Again? [View article]
    That was my point above. They are going to sell out and have waits whether they sell 1000 or 2 million. One analyst pointed out that it went to 4-6 weeks very quickly and it stayed there for a long time. The interpretation is that it is strictly supply limited, or as more people ordered it should have stretched out as the hours went by. They aren't even going to report sales in the quarterly and the numbers are insignificant, so all this talk about the watch is mostly wasted for investment purposes. The iPhone should have a good qtr and that is what matters. I'm a little worried about Macs and iPads, though.
    Apr 10, 2015. 04:01 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch Pre-Order Sellout: Have The Pundits Underestimated Apple Again? [View article]
    There have been reports from credible outlets that Apple recently cut production in half, down to a little over a million per month. They can sell 10 million phones in a week; I guarantee you two things: the initial orders would go to 4-6 weeks no matter the demand, and they could produce 5 million a month if they thought they would sell. Also, there is a lot of fashion and Cult demand (people who will line up for anything Apple tells them they need). Demand in the summer will be the key. I expect it to be pretty tepid.
    Apr 10, 2015. 09:47 AM | 23 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple And Wearable Devices: Moving From A Want To A Need By 2020 [View article]
    It's coming, Arnie. Competitors already have it. I'm sure Apple will do it in the next couple of years, and perhaps next year. I don't see a connected watch taking share from the phone. What it will do is offer the opportunity to leave your phone in certain situations where it is cumbersome or you don't want to risk having it along (like sightseeing on vacation, going for a run or walk from your hotel room in a city, exercising, fishing, etc.)--the watch then begins to *solve problems* like the phone and iPad do now. Staying connected without the phone plus Apple pay will put it into the must have category. The battery may be the biggest hurdle, as radios will put a big demand on it. But, with the process wars going at full throttle, advances in capabilities will be huge in the next three years. Very interesting to watch.
    Apr 10, 2015. 09:02 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Excel Trust Enters Into Agreement to Be Acquired by Blackstone for $15.85 per Share [View article]
    OK, for everybody who owns EXL: "man, I should've bought more!" Thx to Brad Thomas on this one for me.
    Apr 10, 2015. 08:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple And Wearable Devices: Moving From A Want To A Need By 2020 [View article]
    Good article, for Matt; very good synopsis imo. Michael, the best lines I saw in the reviews: the Watch is elegantly designed and a solution in search of a problem to solve! It just doesn't do that much that is useful, and apparently it can be annoying. If you think about the phone, it replaces so many gadgets: cameras, phone, recording device, calendar/organizer, etc. Apple Pay could be the biggest enabler on the Watch. When the Watch gets its own radios, so you don't need your phone, that will be a trip wire. Better battery life, so it can monitor sleep would be popular, too. I think fashion and the Cult effect will move several million. And Apple isn't going to release actual numbers (I'm sure they will somehow if it is a blockbuster), so the PR team will make Watch an incredible success regardless of the sales numbers. Apple is still a phone story, though. Make no mistake. If they have another blowout qtr, the Watch just doesn't matter on the financials.
    Apr 9, 2015. 06:55 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Good Business That Is Still On Sale [View article]
    Very well written article! I would add that there has been a huge increase in short sales during the same time frame of that 50% run up. If CBI takes out >10MM shares, the ~13MM shares short are going to need a lot of bad news to avoid a big squeeze. Also, I want to point out that CBI knew there were some problems when they bought Shaw. Being an engineering firm, I suspect they studied it pretty hard before pulling the trigger. The nuke issues are indeed an opportunity. Nobody has built a reactor here in a very long time.
    Apr 9, 2015. 01:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Airlines Group Is A Buy, And I'll Tell You Why [View article]
    Bobcat, interesting and readers shouldn't miss an important point: that is $1 dollar in oil prices per barrel, not $1 in jet fuel prices! It is about $360-$370 million a month for each dollar in jet fuel prices, or a little over .50 cents a share per month.
    Apr 9, 2015. 01:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: FedEx To Buy TNT Express For €4.4B [View article]
    Tony, interesting comments! Most of the European ETFs are getting ready to have a nice golden cross, with 50dmas over the 200dma, and some have already made it, like EWG. But, what interests me is remembering we are looking at translated prices. When you discount currency changes, pretty much every European ETF is showing the cross with exceptional strength. Europe is starting to look very strong technically across the board.
    Apr 7, 2015. 08:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Airlines Group Is A Buy, And I'll Tell You Why [View article]
    All very solid points, Harm! I think airlines are an opportunity because of their past. Mr. Market is putting on the standard airline discount, which few of us question. The legacy carriers were hit with a multitude of problems in the last 15 years, and I don't think they will be duplicated. If they normalize to a more rational and profitable position, I think the long term valuation will go up. 5 times forward earnings is a bit extreme in my view. Still, they are airlines, so I would never bet the lower 40 acres on them, much less the whole farm.
    Apr 7, 2015. 07:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Airlines Group Is A Buy, And I'll Tell You Why [View article]
    I agree with you on AAL, Harm, but I still like Hawaiin! I look at hedging fuel like hedging a portfolio. It only works when you are right. Otherwise, it costs you more money to hedge. So, airline execs are great oil price speculators? In a sideways or down market they lose. I don't like a bet where you lose on two out of three options. AAL is my top airline pick, but I like pairing them with energy. That is a way of hedging, but the companies can still grow in a sideways market, unlike the hedges. Aloha.
    Apr 7, 2015. 06:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge & Iron Company Is Set To Deliver Growing Shareholder Value In The Years Ahead [View article]
    This is such a boring (to most investors) company. I owned it for years and absolutely nothing was ever said about CBI on SA. One thing none of the authors that I am aware of have mentioned: CBIs growth has been nothing short of phenomenal. It has come organically and through purchases, but they have grown about 10X since the market crash and recovery in the early 00s. They are becoming the total chemical/energy engineering company. Try to find a hot biotech or tech company that has grown 10X in that tough period. It isn't easy. They have grown mostly because they have great engineering, not creative accounting.
    Apr 7, 2015. 06:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment