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  • Apple: Longer-Term Headwinds Make Blowout Quarter A Tough Act To Follow [View article]
    rich, I love these proclamations. Do you remember proclaiming, with the same authority, that Apple's profits would be flat for three more years? You said it right after the rollout of the 6/6+ about four months ago, among other times. So, how did you do? EPS were up 50%! A small part of that was the buyback. But, they also guided way up this quarter. I am dialing up $2.25 for this quarter, but that is probably low. They should be over 30Bn for the first two quarters alone! Lots of new iStuff on the way. That doesn't include any new products, like the Watch, which rolls next qtr. Good luck with your predictions. I would throw in an occasional imho....
    Jan 28, 2015. 09:10 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: American Airlines Q4 2014 Earnings [View article]
    mur, at the very least, it is another object lesson on the dangers of left wing, socialist politicians. Venezuela may never recover. They all sound so good when they are talking about helping poor people and taxing the rich. Kind of like when a duck gets called into decoys--the next thing he knows...
    Jan 28, 2015. 08:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple beats estimates, guides in-line [View news story]
    >>So over time "doing it all" will prove to be a disadvantage for Apple.
    PS: Nobody has contradicted my claim that the BlackBerry Passport is more innovative than the iPhone6. I take that as silent agreement.<<

    TS, You could be right, but right now you appear to be very wrong; Apple's vertical integration and engineering seem to be working very well--nobody can compete with them, not even Samsung. I've never seen a Passport or read a good review. How many did they sell last quarter? We can compare how customers around the world voted on the matter.
    Jan 28, 2015. 08:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple beats estimates, guides in-line [View news story]
    >> Apple's stellar earnings are the result of many factors that are unlikely to occur again,<<

    TS, actually phones are a necessary and repetitive business, as are tablets and computers. How you come up with the sweeping proclamation that Apple will never sell this many computers again is bizarre, to borrow from Gregg. But then I saw why: the dreaded BBRY connection. BTW, 777s are replaced on a 30-40 year cycle. Maybe you are new to this stuff, but Apple actually designs most of their own CPUs and they design systems and they design programs and OS's. Intel does chips, but they don't do too many systems. MSFT does software, but not too many systems, outside of a few tablets and gaming systems. HP does systems, but not a lot of processors. Apple is one of the few that can do it all. On the BA comparison, if you will look back it was in the context of how much the market is paying for the earnings. A lot of people value stocks based on their earnings stream. Apple's earnings stream and cash are very, very cheap.
    Jan 28, 2015. 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple beats estimates, guides in-line [View news story]
    Price to earnings is deeply discounted to the major averages, but....Apple grew revs ~30%, earnings grew ~50% last qtr. A great illustrative comparison is Boeing. They released earnings this AM and should have similar earnings on the year. They made $2.02 GAAP and $2.31 before special charges. BA is rising through $140. Apple made over $3. Apple has over 100Bn more in cash. The major indexes are mostly even more expensive than BA. BA reported 5Bn in operating cash flow, Apple 33Bn. Apple, ex-cash, is amazingly cheap compared to boring, low growth stocks. For companies that are growing revs higher than double digits, it is a steal.
    Jan 28, 2015. 02:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple +7.6%; Street applauds iPhone sales, China growth [View news story]
    That is a huge number, but I'm inclined to agree, Cats, especially if we say $10 per ending share count.
    Jan 28, 2015. 01:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A REIT With Significant Exposure To Texas And Oil-Producing States: Short EastGroup Properties [View article]
    I remember the oil bust in the 80s. I was overweight anything tied to Texas last year, and I sold it--SBSI, UDF and several others. Might be overboard, but so far I am very happy.
    Jan 28, 2015. 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, We're Not Worthy [View article]
    gpal, I disagree. The one thing Apple is on their silicon is competitive. Fiercely so, in fact. They stay out in front, and they know that is a key factor in sales. We both know that the average consumer can't see 20%, but the marketing aspects of saying they are the best matter. Because they control every part of their systems, though, the final integrated result is what will matter.
    Jan 28, 2015. 01:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: American Airlines Q4 2014 Earnings [View article]
    Fox, I think $12 is a better guess if oil stays at this level, but what if it goes even lower? AAL said they should get about $7 a share (over 5Bn) in tailwinds with current oil pricing. $10 is probably more realistic if oil rises back to the 60-70 range. There are just so many other positives, though. New planes, low rates, low debt costs, extra cash to upgrade the system...AAL is primed to soar imo.
    Jan 28, 2015. 12:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: The Perfect Storm - With Tailwinds - For American Airlines [View article]
    Salient points: they made $5.70 last year before specials, and they said the Jan 22 oil price would save a bit over 5Bn this year, or right at $7/sh. Let's discount that to $12/sh. First, everybody seems to be betting and thinking this won't happen. What if they are all wrong and oil prices stay here or go down further? American has paid down their high cost debt, updated their fleet to the newest of any carrier, and they are updating their facilities, and the older planes they are keeping. If oil stays reasonable for a couple of years, I think AAL could easily see triple digits. It is all a question of when the market realizes the value.
    Jan 28, 2015. 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, We're Not Worthy [View article]
    Yes, they blew out both of the last two quarters, so the guidance is actually very strong when you multiply by the new CFO/Maestri factor (1.1X). Kuo nailed this one, and I expect Apple to enter the CPU fray, too. They won't enter it until they can substantially outperform Intel's chips, so if they can't do that, they will probably stay with Intel, but I expect ye ole PA Semi team already has working prototypes. This will help margins or increase market share or both. The best place to start would be Apple TV! It could be like a Mac Mini, only running IOS. Assuming it outperformed a Core 7, games, apps, TV, Stereo, and home control could be controlled from the ATV/home computer. They could go a lot of different ways with this. AAPL is a steal at these prices.
    Jan 28, 2015. 12:36 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple +7.6%; Street applauds iPhone sales, China growth [View news story]
    Well, the problem was that they would sandbag and the analysts would then up the number to a realistic expectation. Then when Apple's growth slowed a little, they missed the analysts expectations but handily beat the guidance, and the stock would tank, sometimes 5-10%. Oppenheimer pitched a fit and started giving a range and committed to it being realistic. He would update guidance at the end of the quarter if Apple was going to be out of the top end, even by a little. Now, Maestri is back to guiding at ~90% of expectations. The problem is that analysts have looked really stupid the last two quarters, but they are working under Oppenheimer's old rules. I predict this quarter the analysts estimates will be close to 60Bn. They will learn the rules have changed fairly quickly. The import to this discussion is that Apple guided for continued dramatic growth yesterday, probably thinking high 50s, or more than last year's Q1. That is utterly remarkable. Booming growth for a huge company. 33+ Bn in cash flow can accelerate the mother of all buybacks as to even make Carl happy.
    Jan 28, 2015. 11:08 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple +7.6%; Street applauds iPhone sales, China growth [View news story]
    The big point for *traders* from yesterday is realizing Maestri is a bigger sandbagger than Jobs was. Investors don't really care. Apple is now guiding much more conservatively. They have crushed the last couple of quarters despite huge and unforeseen negative currency moves. The forward guidance means they expect close to 60Bn and Apple's growth machine is back in order. The watch isn't even part of the guidance, so next quarter will be huge, too. I think they will make $9 a share this year. Easily. If they get more aggressive with buybacks, maybe close to $10. Subtract the cash and we are back at a PE of ~10, or almost half the major indexes. Apple is a huge buy right now. It should be 150, conservatively.
    Jan 28, 2015. 10:48 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Suisse resets expectations on American Airlines Group [View news story]
    The price target is 65 and they lower it to neutral? If AAL makes $12 a share, it is currently selling for 4-5 X this year's earnings! My goodness. I wouldn't be confused by the herd, folks! You can't even find an airline ETF because people hate airlines so much they can't even keep an ETF going!!
    Jan 28, 2015. 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Airlines earnings call: $5B in fuel savings on the way [View news story]
    Mitch, thx for the update! Sounds like a good plan. I think AAL has a long way to run. The problem is how long it takes the market to recognize it, and whether the favorable conditions change in the interim. Of course, we all know the risks, so being hedged may pay off well for you, too. AAL has been ahead of all other airlines on a number of issues. They are batting over .400 of late, and that is in a league where .300 puts you in the Hall of Fame. We will have to wait to see if they got lucky, or if they are, in fact, just a great mgmt team. The one big area I am worried about is the bunker mentality after bankruptcy. They have to rebuild the airline, but especially employee morale. I hope they see the importance of having motivated, happy employees. Regardless of the motives, having employee groups filing lawsuits tells you there are serious attitude issues, and those are seldom all one side's fault. So much damage has been done by the preceding ten years--it is a tall order. If they can revive morale and customer service and they keep making great decisions, I see AAL as the top airline and top airline investment, bar none. I do own DAL and HA and I would love to own some UAL if I can get it on sale. LUV is a great airline, but they are expensive imo.
    Jan 28, 2015. 08:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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