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  • Could REITs Cut It Like Kinder?  [View article]
    I really don't see the comparison. Energy is in a terrible bear market, unlike many we have seen over the last 50 years. There is a large supply/demand imbalance. And, KMI is in the middle of that business. Real estate is doing quite well. This article seems like a case of yelling fire in a building when there isn't a hint of smoke. There was massive energy development after the '08 crisis and now we have too much supply, but real estate development was crippled and maimed. It still seems very muted to me, but that is just my subjective opinion. Rising interest rates aren't likely to create a development boom, either.
    Dec 10, 2015. 03:01 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: The Panic Has Reached A Crescendo  [View article]
    Darren, all true. OTOH, the nice part is that you have the big divvy for three years and it shouldn't be cut. If one is considering investing in KMI for the long haul, the preferred gives you ~12% for the next three years and it is a play on the stock making a comeback. It was in the low 30s a few days ago when I began to mention it on many of these articles--quite a steal IMO.
    Dec 9, 2015. 09:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Reasons Why I Finally Bought Shares Of Prospect Capital  [View article]
    No, thx for posting.
    Dec 8, 2015. 06:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: The Panic Has Reached A Crescendo  [View article]
    You were really close on cash needed. The preferred is potentially a bright spot here--it is yielding up in the jet stream and they aren't cutting it. The dividend cut makes it much stronger by comparison. You are betting that things are better by 2019 if you buy it. It is also definitely a candidate for KMI buying it back on the cheap, as it would save a bunch of cash for future use, too. GLTA.
    Dec 8, 2015. 05:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: I'm (Almost) Ready To Go All-In, Just Waiting For A Dividend Cut  [View article]
    Well, they cut it to .50 cents a year, so we will see.
    Dec 8, 2015. 04:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Good Times Restaurants EPS in-line, beats on revenue  [View news story]
    Mid-point of 2016 guidance is ~56% growth YOY. Pretty cheap when you consider the price/sales is less than 1 (MCD/SHAK are in the 3-4+ range). So, even though GTIM is growing explosively in sales and solidly on SSS, it is valued at ~20-30% of these two prominent burger chains (for P/S).
    Dec 8, 2015. 04:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Reasons Why I Finally Bought Shares Of Prospect Capital  [View article]
    The key point for me is that if they are in that bad of shape--that they need to sell massive amounts of new stock this far below NAV, then I don't want to own the shares. If they only need 1% dilution here then don't ask for 25%!! Also, why would they need to dilute after a buyback? Are we talking about a well run business?
    Dec 8, 2015. 09:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cutting The Dividend Now Will Increase Kinder Morgan's Value  [View article]
    Great article, and I agree the money is not there to raise the dividend and do everything else. The money is there to maintain an ICR, grow the company and buy back massive amounts of stock; and, that is the best deal for shareholders right now, as Andrew pointed out so well. At this ridiculous valuation, KMI can buy itself back completely in about 7 years! KMI appears way too cheap. The preferred is preferred because they won't cut that dividend. Great opportunity, assuming KMI's fundamentals stay close to expected...GLTA.
    Dec 8, 2015. 09:38 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan expects 2016 DCF OK to support dividend growth guidance  [View news story]
    I read the same way...alternatively is the key word there. I read it as, we can maintain forecast DCF growth, the desired credit rating, and issue no equity, but we may have to use some dividend payout to do so. As I said, the preferred is taking on much more value--it won't be cut, and it has a huge yield. The bet is on the time for conversion and whether KMI comes back by 2019. GLTA.
    Dec 4, 2015. 01:20 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: When Will The Panic End?  [View article]
    Agree with everyone on this comment thread. What we are seeing is a dividend cut being discounted. They have 4-5Bn available and even if they cut it in half, the current price is yielding about 5%. 2.3Bn/year wouldn't fund all of their backlog, but it would fund a lot of it, and that enables increased cash flow. I think the price is attractive here, but I'm wrong aplenty on guessing bottoms. Tomorrow's meeting could put another dent in it, as could the Fed. We may get a great buying opp in the next two weeks, but it could bounce at any time imo. One issue of interest is the preferred. I think it is much more attractive now. The dividend is pretty secure for the next three years before the mandatory conversion, and it is yielding about 13%! There is very little premium on it now. GLTA.
    Dec 3, 2015. 06:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: When Will The Panic End?  [View article]
    Greedy when others are fearful....buy hard into panic. They are paying out 4 to 5Bn a year in dividends to common and preferred. Solid company, great business, smart mgmt. Even if the dividend were cut in half, it would still yield over 5% here, and they would have ~2+Bn in extra cash to expand and pay down debt. The preferred is starting to look very attractive because they won't cut that and it is about 13% here. I'm surprised it doesn't have a higher premium on the common. I would think late 2018 would be enough time.
    Dec 3, 2015. 06:00 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: 4" iPhone 6C will ship in early 2016, feature A9 CPU and metal case  [View news story]
    I agree. The big phones were received so well that Apple almost forgot they were the ones arguing that 4 inches was as big as a phone should be. I think this is a recognition that their earlier intuition wasn't all wrong--some people want a 4 inch phone. Most want bigger, but this would be a great move. The other big part of this is enabling Apple Pay on all of their phones.
    Dec 3, 2015. 05:38 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Reasons Why I Finally Bought Shares Of Prospect Capital  [View article]
    This scared me, too, nantucket. BUYER BEWARE! Why on earth is mgmt recommending authorization to sell massive amounts of new shares below NAV? Shareholders are getting called on private numbers by aggressive vote gathering campaigners--I also wonder how much mgmt is paying these entities to attempt to get shareholder's votes for their plan to dilute? I can't imagine why anybody would authorize selling over a hundred million new shares at current or lower prices. I also can't imagine why insiders would buy shares and then request authorization to dump >100 million new shares on the market. Maybe there is an explanation someone could enlighten us with?!
    Dec 3, 2015. 06:57 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Analysis Of The Price War Between American And Spirit Airlines  [View article]
    I agree fuel is important, bulls. When you are raking in cash, you are a much stronger competitor, and AAL is printing money right now. And, hedging makes fuel more expensive in sideways or down pricing environments. It works when prices go up, obviously. This has been an advantage for AAL. Also, I'm not sure about SAVE's presentation numbers that WT quotes. AAL's systemwide CASM was only a hair over 11 cents last qtr, and SAVE was a hair under 8 cents. That is a much smaller delta than the presentation gives. We have to remember that AAL is a big, international airline, and their costs are higher, but their yields are higher, too. They may get a lot tougher with SAVE in the future. Other possible problems: SAVE is an ultra low service airline, charging extra for checking in with a person at the airport, or even offering a small bottle of water--everything you could imagine costs extra, and even some things you couldn't imagine. As long as you go without any baggage and you eat and drink before flying, and you can handle being one of the cattle in the cars, it can work well. They pay their employees a lot less, and that can end up manifesting in poor service, too. LUV found a way to pay their people and make them happy. That came through in dealing with SWA's employees. Also, LUV has a much higher level of service imo. SAVE could work out on cost alone, but there is more to running a successful company than having the lowest costs.
    Nov 25, 2015. 09:26 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Gladstone Commercial's 10% Yield Too 'Good' To Be True?  [View article]
    GOOD article, Brad! It seems to me that many externally managed REITs have a very high FFO to FFO/SH growth ratio. Externally managed REITs often get paid based on total revenue, or a similar metric, so they will do most anything to grow assets under mgmt. Well managed REITS, OTOH, manage for *shareholders,* so they are trying to grow FFO/SH. It might seem like a subtle difference, but this is why many externally managed REITs show zero growth in share price over 5-10 year periods, while better managed REITs have doubled over the same 10 years. I think investors are also discounting externally managed REITs to give them a shot at competing with the well managed group for total return. The discounting ruins the WACC variables for externally managed REITs and that makes them cheaper. Having said all of that, the 64K question is whether some of these RIETs have gotten too cheap. At 10%, all GOOD has to do is not cut the dividend and stay out of serious trouble and it will end up being a very GOOD investment. Externally managed REITs, I think most people agree, tend to be dogs, but many are so cheap right now, the investments could still work out well.
    Nov 16, 2015. 09:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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