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  • 3 Apple iPhone Killers [View article]
    Harry, the mistake you are making, imho, is that you aren't considering all of the variables in the smartphone market. My wife just dropped her iPhone in the drink. Fortunately, we bought applecare; we paid them $50 and a very intelligent young man had her up and running with a new phone in less than a half hour. I would buy an iPhone for the warranty and customer service even if it had less features. My personal experience with several Android phones wasn't good. They looked good; they had great features, but they had big problems. Android has bad stability issues. All of our phones would do uncommanded reboots. The battery life was terrible! We had to keep buying new batteries and they never seemed to do as well as the OEM batteries. Fragmentation caused big problems. The Android gang doesn't make money off of keeping your phone on the latest version, so they generally don't update them. Apple does. Android has terrible malware problems. It is so bad that Samsung has started supplying antivirus software to try to help. The integration of the ecosystem also makes Apple sticky. Finally, Apple has a huge advantage because they engineer from the ground up. From performance to battery life, Apple's engineering produces far better results. Simply comparing phone features doesn't tell half the story, just as comparing HP and engine displacement doesn't really tell the whole story on car buying.
    Sep 6, 2013. 07:41 AM | 48 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Signs Of An Approaching Bear Market [View article]
    It may be about to turn bear on us; I have no idea, but this will likely be the first bear market that has been ushered in by hundreds of articles from financial pundits. I have seen so many bear market articles in the last few weeks that I suspect Mr. Market is trembling in the corner, and the next move is up...we will see.
    Aug 14, 2014. 04:28 PM | 34 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: A Reversal Of Fortune Seems Inevitable [View article]
    OTOH mag, I might look at an opposing viewpoint. The installed base of phones and potential user base have exploded for Apple in the last couple of years. I have seen multiple rumors "from the supply chain" saying Apple has ordered 70-80 MM iP6s for CY 14, which is more like 40-50% growth! One estimate I saw recently was 200MM upgrades alone! You have to look at the upgrade cycle. Also, Apple stock has gone into Saturn 5 mode after new product categories of the past. Rumors are again popping that they have not one, but *multiple* new categories, on the way over the next six months. Michael was making the exact same argument when Apple was selling in the 50s (equiv) a few months ago. I tried to warn him, and he wouldn't give up on his short thesis for any reason or reasoning. Comparing Apple and Blackberry is like saying that what happened to AMD is happening to Intel. They are very different situations. Between the huge cash flow and buy back and the strong overall growth, Apple is still priced like a cheap value stock, yet it has started another strong growth phase. Take a look around at the multiples and you will realize there are few quality NSDQ stocks that are cheaper. GLTA.
    Aug 9, 2014. 05:23 AM | 33 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Intelligent Investor Should Consider REITs [View article]
    Brad, you are my favorite REIT author by a large margin and I'm sure I am not alone. Very useful and profitable info, presented with a mix of humor. Don't let the peanut gallery comments get under your skin. Please keep the great articles coming.
    Jul 18, 2014. 08:06 AM | 31 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Can't Believe The Apple Hype [View article]
    Barantos, did you eat your prunes, today?
    Sep 17, 2014. 02:07 PM | 29 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 8 Reasons Why A New Global Financial Crisis Could Be On The Way [View article]
    Or as the saying goes, the generals are busy fighting the last war. This is about the 25th article in August by an educated person predicting or discussing the next crisis/crash/bubble. It could happen, but probably not at this time, just too many folks predicting/discussing it. Probably going to climb that wall of worry, as everything gets better--incomes, employment, personal wealth, etc.
    Aug 23, 2014. 08:06 PM | 29 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With Apple Over $100, Time To Sell? [View article]
    Another way of looking at Apple right now is through the lens focused on the cash and the buyback. They have reduced the share count roughly 10% since late '12 (split adjusted) and they will likely take that number to about 20% by the end of next year. I made the argument last year that the price *can't* stay low because Apple's shares will evaporate over the next 10-15 years, just based on cash flow and share reduction. Of course, that won't happen, and either profits will evaporate or the price of the stock will have to go up commensurately. Assuming no growth from '12-next year, the equivalent high will be about $120. The funny thing is that Apple is very cheap right now with current fundamentals compared to its peer group. If Apple was priced the same as the Nasdaq 100 today it would be about $135! But, who doesn't think Apple is one of the best (and should have a price premium) stocks in the Nasdaq 100? If not the best! And that is with the best product pipeline in the modern history of Apple Computer coming in the next few weeks/months!
    Aug 20, 2014. 08:39 AM | 29 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Apple Xiaomi Problems Grow [View article]
    An entire thesis on one unreliable rumor? For another view, Digitimes reported this morning that supply chain sources are saying Apple has production plans for 80-100MM iP6/+ models in '14, much higher than originally estimated. WSJ this AM says Foxconn unable to keep up with the massive demand on the iP6. I doubt Apple would be ordering 80-100MM components if they didn't know when China was going live on orders. I suspect the delay is simply a question of being able to meet the demand--Apple doesn't want to create unfulfilled demand.
    Sep 17, 2014. 12:50 PM | 28 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Leaving Everything To Be Desired [View article]
    I have only one problem with your column: *Revenue/profit revisions are going up, not down.* iPhone growth is exploding higher and the ASPs are heading up.
    Sep 26, 2014. 03:54 PM | 25 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clean Energy Fuels' LNG Strategy Is Crumbling [View article]
    Wonderland, all of this sudden negative press appears a little odd to me, but I will certainly listen to what they have to say. I look at insider purchases and sales a lot to find out what the smartest people are doing. One of the smartest "insiders" on natural gas, and unbiased by profit motives, is UPS. UPS has been operating thousands of alternative vehicles for many years, including LNG and CNG. They study details and cost like nobody else. They even brag about ordering which foot the drivers step out of their vans to deliver packages. They also squeeze blood out of turnips to find every penny. The fact that they are one of the most experienced, largest, and smartest operators of both CNG and LNG vehicles, gives them "insider status" in my book. They will take delivery of 700 tractors btw, so you have to wonder why UPS rejected CNG for LNG. The fact that they picked CLNE and LNG over CNG tells me that these authors could be wrong in their cost analysis.
    Feb 8, 2014. 06:51 PM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Approaches Price Target Too Quickly [View article]
    Doc, you could be right on AAPL, but saying 100% of your calls have been right is wrong. Sorry to call you out, but the only call I noticed from you was a few weeks ago to short the airlines. Anybody following you in that trade got their head ripped off. To your credit, you did advise stopping out. I advised you against the idea at the time if you will remember. The folly is thinking anybody is smart enough to predict the future consistently. Apple could go down, but once the Black Friday crowds start lining up to buy iPads for $199, you may see a lot of upward pressure on Apple. The new watch is coming, and many new products are rumored for the new year. Another technique is to buy and hold the company for the long term. GLTA.
    Nov 18, 2014. 12:32 PM | 23 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's CC: iPad sales, margins, M&A, cash balances discussed [View news story]
    Sammy, AAPL is selling for about half the PE of the Nasdaq 100! Apple is cheap. If you back out $20+ a share for the cash, Apple is one of the cheapest stocks out there. With a whole bunch of new products due out in the next three+ months, it is a steal imo.
    Jul 22, 2014. 06:51 PM | 23 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties: Rapid Growth At A Cheap Price [View article]
    We can't kid ourselves. The stock is likely down because they just dumped 120MM shares at a big discount to recent stock prices. It was over 20% higher this year, and about 50% higher a year ago. ARCP's stock price is deeply depressed and very unstable for a REIT, and the mgmt team is diluting like no tomorrow. Reducing share count, while increasing earnings, makes the stock go up, btw.
    May 23, 2014. 09:27 PM | 23 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Once In A Generation Change For Stocks [View article]
    I'll give you two ribits, Pompano! As Fed Chairwoman, she can inject her own passions. I don't see that as policy changing in nature. The low rates that have helped stocks also help homeowners. There isn't much of a way I can see that the Fed can do much about inequality, other than talk about it. One could argue that increased immigration has helped to produce some of the problem. One could argue that the breakdown in traditional families, with much higher birth rates from unwed mothers (poorer education, discipline, and resulting underachievement) is causing the problem. One could make a number of good arguments, but I don't think low rates contribute much.
    Oct 30, 2014. 03:05 PM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Accounting Armageddon: Should You Dump Your American Realty Stake And Run For The Hills? [View article]
    A few years from now, some great investor is going to tell the story in his book about this event, how he bought ARCP for pennies on the dollar. He will note that Mr. Market is crazy, because he will panic and give his shares away over the slightest upset at times, and at times he will convince himself to pay 100 X earnings! Kay said the overall impact, after forensic accounting investigations by auditors, is expected to be around 3 cents to 2014 AFFO. Dividend is solid. At 10 X 3 cents, it should have produced ~ a 30 cent drop. Instead it dropped over 30% from an already undervalued price. Today is likely to be one of those great buying opportunities that only come along a few times. That is my 3 cents.
    Oct 29, 2014. 06:28 PM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment