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  • American Realty Capital Properties: Shooting For A 7% Dividend Yield? [View article]
    Not only is a conservative payout likely due to the reasons Brad listed, but let's not forget that mgmt will want to show progress in the future. The easiest way to do that is to set the dividend very low and raise it consistently. I would guess .12, but anything is possible from .08 to .18 or so.
    Jul 29, 2015. 09:33 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Making An iPhone Mistake? [View article]
    No, they still produce what they need.
    Jul 28, 2015. 06:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Making An iPhone Mistake? [View article]
    5S, 16GB, free...that is the rumor, and I think they will sell a bunch. The only thing that would be better is if they could put Apple pay into the 5S chipset. Hard to imagine a better 4 inch phone anywhere, and certainly perfect for the the 4 inch phone lovers. But, it is a great point that some people prefer small phones and not having high end models available would be a big mistake, especially considering that just 12 months ago, small phones were the only option and Apple was arguing that is what most everybody wanted because larger phones don't fit your hand and can't be used by the general populace.
    Jul 28, 2015. 04:46 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Select Income REIT Q2 results [View news story]
    You have to ask why a company is using shares as payment after the shares have dropped 40%. Is that smart? It just seems to me that some REITS and others, particularly externally managed ones, will continue to do dilutive deals until there is nothing left--except the management fees. MS just downgraded last week, so they are seeing something they don't like. I have taken a huge loss on my small position, so I'm one shareholder who isn't happy with management.
    Jul 28, 2015. 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: Not A Blow-Out, But Good Enough [View article]
    If nobody expects Apple to do it again, then if they do it will be a strong upward surprise. I think they will. They are quite good at phones and such, and phones really are up there with toilet paper and soap--people feel like they have to have a phone. They said only 27% of the installed base has upgraded, so there is massive potential.
    Jul 23, 2015. 11:43 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: Not A Blow-Out, But Good Enough [View article]
    We were fed a "law of large numbers" column a week a couple of years back when Apple had about $156Bn in sales. They should do over $230Bn this year! Supposedly, about 75% of the installed iPhone base doesn't have the latest gen phones. I think the 16GB 5S will sell heavily this year, assuming the rumors are true. The real law of large numbers is the multitude that already own an iPhone, and this commodity is a repeat sale business where Apple makes a fortune.
    Jul 23, 2015. 11:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: Not A Blow-Out, But Good Enough [View article]
    Actually, 32% rev growth and 45% profit growth are blowouts in any business, no matter what anybody predicted or expected. The growth is almost dangerously high. People forget that Apple *finally* offered big screens, but they also added a second, complementary, but state of the art phone. This year should see two more state of the arts, giving them four phones within 12 months of the rollout, but they are rumored to be upping the 5S minimum and free phone to 16GB. I expect this year will be another record breaking year for phones. That they have cannibalized some iPad mini sales is very, very good. The 6S, which takes some mini sales away, sells for about $500 more and has a much higher margin...all good. Apple would be valued at over $191 this morning with the exact same forward PE as the NSDQ 100, and they have *over 200 billion* in cash. So, even though Apple is growing much faster than most of the NSDQ 100, it has a higher dividend, and much more cash, its earnings are valued at about 66% of the index earnings.
    Jul 23, 2015. 10:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: 4 Was Not The Magic Number [View article]
    Great points, Sog. Plus, the PE is in the 13s for this year's estimate, and they have over 200Bn in cash laying around.
    Jul 22, 2015. 01:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: 4 Was Not The Magic Number [View article]
    They grew revs >30% YOY and AAPL is selling for about 10X this year's earnings less net cash. I wouldn't worry about the 5 number.
    Jul 22, 2015. 11:30 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: Not A Blow-Out, But Good Enough [View article]
    Danny, I would say we need to be conservative, so $160. 15 X next year's earnings and half credit for the cash. Much will depend on the new products and the perception of them, but Apple's wheelhouse is electronics design--so that is probably OK. The big risk is probably macro, but if Apple ever decided to swing and miss on a new generation, that could be devastating. The fact that only 27% of the installed iPhone base has upgraded to the 6/6S is also a very strong positive. We are still using the 5, and I know several 4S users to this day!
    Jul 22, 2015. 10:49 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: Not A Blow-Out, But Good Enough [View article]
    In line takes a lot of dreaming for me, tuna: 32% rev growth YOY and 45% EPS growth, AAPL selling for about 10 times this year's earnings less net cash. AAPL is back to half the price of the NSDQ 100! The funny part is comparing NFLX, GOOG, and AMZN reactions. But, everybody owns AAPL and there is nowhere to go but down?!? Please. As I pointed out when Maestri got back into the sandbagging routine, traders and analysts are like drug addicts, they will punish you for not giving them more of their drug--huge blowouts. That happened yesterday, as Apple is growing faster than almost every company and yet apparently they wanted 100% growth in earnings YOY! The important point for AAPL traders and investors is that this is the time to buy. July was the great time of the cycle, so barring macro disaster Mr. Market is giving away shares for the big upgrade cycle that starts in 8 weeks or so. Prices will lead that by a few weeks. GLTA.
    Jul 22, 2015. 10:39 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Strength Has American Airlines Taking Flight [View article]
    Brandon, you mentioned 1 billion in net synergies, but how about $4 billion in fuel savings this year? Look back analysis is downright deceptive in this industry when you have big fuel price swings. All of the airlines, and AAL especially, are great ways to short oil. The price of oil is down, yet the market has given *ZERO* credit for that to the airlines. If oil goes back to $100 they are still cheap! So you are, in a sense, getting to short oil at ~$100 today by buying AAL. If one thinks oil might stay down below $80, airlines are a steal. At $50 oil, this is going to be funny. AAL won't stay 3.XX times earnings for long!
    Jul 22, 2015. 10:24 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple beats estimates, guides light; shares fall [View news story]
    Predicting the future is a difficult business. I had GILD on my watch list and shares dropped to the high 80s a few months back. I was ready to buy and then I started reading some very well reasoned comments on SA stating why it would drop to the 70s...well, you know the rest of that song. GILD is $25 higher and I still don't own any of it. There are risks both ways on limit orders.
    Jul 22, 2015. 08:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Airlines Vs. Delta Air Lines: Which Is The Better Long-Term Buy Right Now? [View article]
    IMO, the key to seeing the value in both names is understanding fuel costs and airlines. AAL has guided that they will use a little over 358 million gallons a month this year. Delta is similar. Fracking has changed the oil picture, and even the Saudis have commented that this is a sea change that should last for years. AAL is paying around a dollar per gallon less than last year when the stock price was higher than it is now! So, both companies have been on a ten year diet, getting lean and structuring the business to be profitable with the reality of $100-$120 dollar oil, and then we get the collapse in oil prices. For AAL, because they don' hedge, there is about a $350 million per month benefit over an already profitable model! I like all of the airlines because of this dynamic. Fuel probably isn't going back to $100 any time soon, so the airlines, even with a price war, are still likely to be profitable. The bankruptcies of the past stand as a stark warning against adding a lot of capacity.
    Jul 22, 2015. 07:20 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple beats estimates, guides light; shares fall [View news story]
    Back when Maestri returned to the old Jobs technique of sandbagging, I warned we would get back to this response after a few quarters. Sandbagging is like an addictive drug to analysts and traders. Feels good at first, but they have to get more and more as time goes by. Imagine if they had actually disappointed with the numbers. >30% YOY growth and it drops 7%! We have seen this play before, so you know how to handle it.
    Jul 21, 2015. 05:04 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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