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  • 3 Apple iPhone Killers [View article]
    Harry, the mistake you are making, imho, is that you aren't considering all of the variables in the smartphone market. My wife just dropped her iPhone in the drink. Fortunately, we bought applecare; we paid them $50 and a very intelligent young man had her up and running with a new phone in less than a half hour. I would buy an iPhone for the warranty and customer service even if it had less features. My personal experience with several Android phones wasn't good. They looked good; they had great features, but they had big problems. Android has bad stability issues. All of our phones would do uncommanded reboots. The battery life was terrible! We had to keep buying new batteries and they never seemed to do as well as the OEM batteries. Fragmentation caused big problems. The Android gang doesn't make money off of keeping your phone on the latest version, so they generally don't update them. Apple does. Android has terrible malware problems. It is so bad that Samsung has started supplying antivirus software to try to help. The integration of the ecosystem also makes Apple sticky. Finally, Apple has a huge advantage because they engineer from the ground up. From performance to battery life, Apple's engineering produces far better results. Simply comparing phone features doesn't tell half the story, just as comparing HP and engine displacement doesn't really tell the whole story on car buying.
    Sep 6, 2013. 07:41 AM | 48 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Signs Of An Approaching Bear Market [View article]
    It may be about to turn bear on us; I have no idea, but this will likely be the first bear market that has been ushered in by hundreds of articles from financial pundits. I have seen so many bear market articles in the last few weeks that I suspect Mr. Market is trembling in the corner, and the next move is up...we will see.
    Aug 14, 2014. 04:28 PM | 34 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: A Reversal Of Fortune Seems Inevitable [View article]
    OTOH mag, I might look at an opposing viewpoint. The installed base of phones and potential user base have exploded for Apple in the last couple of years. I have seen multiple rumors "from the supply chain" saying Apple has ordered 70-80 MM iP6s for CY 14, which is more like 40-50% growth! One estimate I saw recently was 200MM upgrades alone! You have to look at the upgrade cycle. Also, Apple stock has gone into Saturn 5 mode after new product categories of the past. Rumors are again popping that they have not one, but *multiple* new categories, on the way over the next six months. Michael was making the exact same argument when Apple was selling in the 50s (equiv) a few months ago. I tried to warn him, and he wouldn't give up on his short thesis for any reason or reasoning. Comparing Apple and Blackberry is like saying that what happened to AMD is happening to Intel. They are very different situations. Between the huge cash flow and buy back and the strong overall growth, Apple is still priced like a cheap value stock, yet it has started another strong growth phase. Take a look around at the multiples and you will realize there are few quality NSDQ stocks that are cheaper. GLTA.
    Aug 9, 2014. 05:23 AM | 33 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Intelligent Investor Should Consider REITs [View article]
    Brad, you are my favorite REIT author by a large margin and I'm sure I am not alone. Very useful and profitable info, presented with a mix of humor. Don't let the peanut gallery comments get under your skin. Please keep the great articles coming.
    Jul 18, 2014. 08:06 AM | 31 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Can't Believe The Apple Hype [View article]
    Barantos, did you eat your prunes, today?
    Sep 17, 2014. 02:07 PM | 29 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 8 Reasons Why A New Global Financial Crisis Could Be On The Way [View article]
    Or as the saying goes, the generals are busy fighting the last war. This is about the 25th article in August by an educated person predicting or discussing the next crisis/crash/bubble. It could happen, but probably not at this time, just too many folks predicting/discussing it. Probably going to climb that wall of worry, as everything gets better--incomes, employment, personal wealth, etc.
    Aug 23, 2014. 08:06 PM | 29 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With Apple Over $100, Time To Sell? [View article]
    Another way of looking at Apple right now is through the lens focused on the cash and the buyback. They have reduced the share count roughly 10% since late '12 (split adjusted) and they will likely take that number to about 20% by the end of next year. I made the argument last year that the price *can't* stay low because Apple's shares will evaporate over the next 10-15 years, just based on cash flow and share reduction. Of course, that won't happen, and either profits will evaporate or the price of the stock will have to go up commensurately. Assuming no growth from '12-next year, the equivalent high will be about $120. The funny thing is that Apple is very cheap right now with current fundamentals compared to its peer group. If Apple was priced the same as the Nasdaq 100 today it would be about $135! But, who doesn't think Apple is one of the best (and should have a price premium) stocks in the Nasdaq 100? If not the best! And that is with the best product pipeline in the modern history of Apple Computer coming in the next few weeks/months!
    Aug 20, 2014. 08:39 AM | 29 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple beats estimates, guides in-line [View news story]
    I'll try to think up some negative takes on this for Michael:1) iPhones are getting so big that Apple will surely fail going forward. Apple will have to start selling them to aliens to grow any more. Law of big numbers. 2) The CFO can't hit a dartboard from 2 feet away. Incompetent. I mean really. How do you forecast that far below the results and claim you have any idea what you are doing? His midpoint was almost 10 Bn too low! Apple is doomed. 3) iPads dropped by millions and millions. Short this name!!
    Jan 27, 2015. 05:00 PM | 28 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Apple Xiaomi Problems Grow [View article]
    An entire thesis on one unreliable rumor? For another view, Digitimes reported this morning that supply chain sources are saying Apple has production plans for 80-100MM iP6/+ models in '14, much higher than originally estimated. WSJ this AM says Foxconn unable to keep up with the massive demand on the iP6. I doubt Apple would be ordering 80-100MM components if they didn't know when China was going live on orders. I suspect the delay is simply a question of being able to meet the demand--Apple doesn't want to create unfulfilled demand.
    Sep 17, 2014. 12:50 PM | 28 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Leaving Everything To Be Desired [View article]
    I have only one problem with your column: *Revenue/profit revisions are going up, not down.* iPhone growth is exploding higher and the ASPs are heading up.
    Sep 26, 2014. 03:54 PM | 25 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: More Data On The iOS/Android Struggle [View article]
    >>There is a major difference between the iOS/Android era and the Mac/PC era<<
    I agree that this is a terrible analogy on many different levels, and the normally sharp Paulo needs to awaken from his Android induced slumber. ;)! Phones have a much quicker replacement cycle, and are more necessary than PCs or tablets. Apple is much larger in the premium category. Competitive Android phones aren't much cheaper. Android is badly fragmented, and not updated by Google; you are dependent on the phone maker. Unlike Apple, they don't want to spend anything on updating older phones. But, the biggest problem with his logic is that he doesn't mention Apple's customer service advantage. In the US, with the high number of Apple Stores, Apple is the only company with on site warranty work. I've owned almost every brand of computer through the years and both major phone OSs--Samsungs, LGs, Motorolas, and now Apples. The real advantage of Apple is that for $100 extra you get free and instant warranty work. If the kids drop the phone, or software issues arise, you get it fixed at the Apple store, free and nearly instantly. True on Macs, too. The Android and PC worlds have nothing comparable. They have a lot more problems, too. Folks you need to wake up: Apple just sold 74MM phones in one quarter and they guided very high for this quarter also! The new CFO is very conservative and prefers blowing the numbers out. This quarter will be another huge record, likely bigger than any Apple quarter ever, except the last. Bigger than any Apple holiday quarter, except the last. Apple isn't just booming with growth, it is exploding higher. Apple is crushing everybody in the premium space. Somebody has to come up with a comparable warranty servicing plan, or Apple is untouchable. Nobody even gets it, much less are they doing anything. They are still trying to sell their phones based on features alone, a game they will lose anyway. On the AAPL trade, ex-cash, Apple is selling for about 30 times the last quarter's earnings. The TTM PE for the Nasdaq 100 is almost 24!! Apple is almost valued at the 12 month PE of the NDQ 100 with only one quarter's earnings to compete! Insanely cheap. Still a no-brainer buy at this price--AAPL is a steal. GLTA.
    Jan 31, 2015. 12:41 PM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clean Energy Fuels' LNG Strategy Is Crumbling [View article]
    Wonderland, all of this sudden negative press appears a little odd to me, but I will certainly listen to what they have to say. I look at insider purchases and sales a lot to find out what the smartest people are doing. One of the smartest "insiders" on natural gas, and unbiased by profit motives, is UPS. UPS has been operating thousands of alternative vehicles for many years, including LNG and CNG. They study details and cost like nobody else. They even brag about ordering which foot the drivers step out of their vans to deliver packages. They also squeeze blood out of turnips to find every penny. The fact that they are one of the most experienced, largest, and smartest operators of both CNG and LNG vehicles, gives them "insider status" in my book. They will take delivery of 700 tractors btw, so you have to wonder why UPS rejected CNG for LNG. The fact that they picked CLNE and LNG over CNG tells me that these authors could be wrong in their cost analysis.
    Feb 8, 2014. 06:51 PM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch Pre-Order Sellout: Have The Pundits Underestimated Apple Again? [View article]
    There have been reports from credible outlets that Apple recently cut production in half, down to a little over a million per month. They can sell 10 million phones in a week; I guarantee you two things: the initial orders would go to 4-6 weeks no matter the demand, and they could produce 5 million a month if they thought they would sell. Also, there is a lot of fashion and Cult demand (people who will line up for anything Apple tells them they need). Demand in the summer will be the key. I expect it to be pretty tepid.
    Apr 10, 2015. 09:47 AM | 23 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Bears Resurrect The Commodity Bogeyman [View article]
    Mark, I might add that Apple has a huge customer service advantage. We get a lot of very proficient techies commenting here, but most people don't want to spend *any* time debugging their phone or laptop. Apple's warranty and Genius Bar techs enable the average baby boomer or milllenial to avoid having to ever waste their time on reading tech help articles again. Until somebody can offer something competitive (and nobody even gets it yet), Apple is untouchable.
    Feb 4, 2015. 01:13 PM | 23 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Approaches Price Target Too Quickly [View article]
    Doc, you could be right on AAPL, but saying 100% of your calls have been right is wrong. Sorry to call you out, but the only call I noticed from you was a few weeks ago to short the airlines. Anybody following you in that trade got their head ripped off. To your credit, you did advise stopping out. I advised you against the idea at the time if you will remember. The folly is thinking anybody is smart enough to predict the future consistently. Apple could go down, but once the Black Friday crowds start lining up to buy iPads for $199, you may see a lot of upward pressure on Apple. The new watch is coming, and many new products are rumored for the new year. Another technique is to buy and hold the company for the long term. GLTA.
    Nov 18, 2014. 12:32 PM | 23 Likes Like |Link to Comment