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  • What To Consider Before Selling Apple [View article]
    Remember, 1Q sales are in the 4th CQ! The 90-100 million includes the rollout quarter--the one we are in now. Also, I would have to see the note, but Apple didn't sell close 74.5 million iP6/plus last 1Q! That was *total* iPhone sales. If they sell 70 million 6S/plus, they could sell 80-90 million phones in 1Q. Last year's growth was so large a number, that any decent growth will produce a blowout quarter on earnings.
    Aug 17, 2015. 02:22 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What To Consider Before Selling Apple [View article]
    Also, they think that every year, especially those bearing "S"!
    Aug 17, 2015. 01:37 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Finding iPad's Future [View article]
    More likely that people are using the 6Plus form factor instead of the mini, and iPads last a long time. Nothing wrong with the iPad business imo. It is more like a laptop on replacement cycle than phones.
    Aug 12, 2015. 03:58 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Reversing My Call, Stock Is A Buy Once Again [View article]
    I think this is almost entirely the Yuan. It may hurt Apple short term, but this will help Apple over the long haul. They do sell a lot of products in China, but nearly 100% of their products are *produced in China* and will benefit from a weaker Yuan. This is another dumb overreaction imo.
    Aug 11, 2015. 02:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Reversing My Call, Stock Is A Buy Once Again [View article]
    Apple almost always makes a July/August low for some strange reason; you can set your Apple Watch by it. It usually follows with a *very* powerful rally. Even in 2012 it rallied almost 25% in the few weeks after the July/August low. There haven't been many bad times to buy Apple in the past, if any, but July/August fear has been a very consistent winner.
    Aug 10, 2015. 11:54 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Its Own Worst Enemy [View article]
    My joke that isn't funny if you actually own an Android--it is free, and a great OS, as long as you don't mind sharing your phone with Chinese and Russian (and anybody else who wants to join you) hackers!
    Aug 8, 2015. 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How China Will Take A Bite Out Of Apple's Growth Momentum [View article]
    tone, I might add that Shanghai is up almost 16% YTD and the Hang Seng is up, too. The market has dropped recently and there has been volatility, but I don't think I would call it a crash. The S&P isn't doing nearly as well this year as China, but I still plan to upgrade our IP5 models this year!
    Aug 7, 2015. 02:45 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Making An iPhone Mistake? [View article]
    No, they still produce what they need.
    Jul 28, 2015. 06:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Making An iPhone Mistake? [View article]
    5S, 16GB, free...that is the rumor, and I think they will sell a bunch. The only thing that would be better is if they could put Apple pay into the 5S chipset. Hard to imagine a better 4 inch phone anywhere, and certainly perfect for the the 4 inch phone lovers. But, it is a great point that some people prefer small phones and not having high end models available would be a big mistake, especially considering that just 12 months ago, small phones were the only option and Apple was arguing that is what most everybody wanted because larger phones don't fit your hand and can't be used by the general populace.
    Jul 28, 2015. 04:46 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: Not A Blow-Out, But Good Enough [View article]
    If nobody expects Apple to do it again, then if they do it will be a strong upward surprise. I think they will. They are quite good at phones and such, and phones really are up there with toilet paper and soap--people feel like they have to have a phone. They said only 27% of the installed base has upgraded, so there is massive potential.
    Jul 23, 2015. 11:43 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: Not A Blow-Out, But Good Enough [View article]
    We were fed a "law of large numbers" column a week a couple of years back when Apple had about $156Bn in sales. They should do over $230Bn this year! Supposedly, about 75% of the installed iPhone base doesn't have the latest gen phones. I think the 16GB 5S will sell heavily this year, assuming the rumors are true. The real law of large numbers is the multitude that already own an iPhone, and this commodity is a repeat sale business where Apple makes a fortune.
    Jul 23, 2015. 11:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: Not A Blow-Out, But Good Enough [View article]
    Actually, 32% rev growth and 45% profit growth are blowouts in any business, no matter what anybody predicted or expected. The growth is almost dangerously high. People forget that Apple *finally* offered big screens, but they also added a second, complementary, but state of the art phone. This year should see two more state of the arts, giving them four phones within 12 months of the rollout, but they are rumored to be upping the 5S minimum and free phone to 16GB. I expect this year will be another record breaking year for phones. That they have cannibalized some iPad mini sales is very, very good. The 6S, which takes some mini sales away, sells for about $500 more and has a much higher margin...all good. Apple would be valued at over $191 this morning with the exact same forward PE as the NSDQ 100, and they have *over 200 billion* in cash. So, even though Apple is growing much faster than most of the NSDQ 100, it has a higher dividend, and much more cash, its earnings are valued at about 66% of the index earnings.
    Jul 23, 2015. 10:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: 4 Was Not The Magic Number [View article]
    Great points, Sog. Plus, the PE is in the 13s for this year's estimate, and they have over 200Bn in cash laying around.
    Jul 22, 2015. 01:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: 4 Was Not The Magic Number [View article]
    They grew revs >30% YOY and AAPL is selling for about 10X this year's earnings less net cash. I wouldn't worry about the 5 number.
    Jul 22, 2015. 11:30 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: Not A Blow-Out, But Good Enough [View article]
    Danny, I would say we need to be conservative, so $160. 15 X next year's earnings and half credit for the cash. Much will depend on the new products and the perception of them, but Apple's wheelhouse is electronics design--so that is probably OK. The big risk is probably macro, but if Apple ever decided to swing and miss on a new generation, that could be devastating. The fact that only 27% of the installed iPhone base has upgraded to the 6/6S is also a very strong positive. We are still using the 5, and I know several 4S users to this day!
    Jul 22, 2015. 10:49 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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