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  • It Pays To 'Think Different' About Apple's Stock Price [View article]
    Good job, even though I disagree with your call. Current estimates call for 66.22Bn and 2.52. Both are rising each day. As big a number as that is, I think it is way too low! It is less than 9Bn more than last year's 1Q. Two respected analysts raised their targets and were in the news today: Kuo and Caso. Both are checking the order chain and both are calling for a huge increase in iPhone sales. The lower of the two is calling for almost a 30% increase at the top of his range. What a lot of people are missing, though, is last year's 5C and 5S sold for less than the 6 and 6+ and they still had an ASP of $637 (all iPhones). I think we will be over $700 this year. The lower number times $700 is 13Bn in increased revs. Apple has called this year's phone sales growth dramatic--not just up, but way up. So Mr. Kuo may be right. This quarter is going to be much higher than current estimates, probably over 70Bn and approaching $3. If Mr. Kuo is correct, we are likely looking at ~75Bn and well over $3. Maybe the stock could relax, but it is currently discounted on the low numbers, and, *most importantly*, they have a number of new products rolling in the new year. They haven't rolled out new products in the first calendar quarter in years. GLTA, and again, very well written article.
    Nov 24, 2014. 04:36 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Wait To Invest New Money In Apple [View article]
    Patrick, I think Gary is saying look at the people who bought at $700 two years ago. They are up over 20% total, and that is the worst possible case, as long as you bought and held. Those who were buying at $390 are up over 100% in a little over a year. Sometimes trying to call the perfect trades causes you to miss the gain--a very real risk that many try to deny or ignore. Apple may keep going, as the most recent iPhone estimates are very high! A huge beat, along with a bunch of new products in the New Year are going to make it hard for Apple to go down. Because of the buyback and the exploding analyst estimates, I think we are still significantly discounted from the major averages, especially when cash is adjusted. There just aren't many bargains out there. Apple is on sale and it is more solid than most of the companies in the indexes that are more expensive.
    Nov 24, 2014. 04:10 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Approaches Price Target Too Quickly [View article]
    People aren't looking at the large increase in earnings estimates--they are going through the roof, having risen about 10% for this year in the last qtr alone. That trend should continue as the market figures out the effect of the new phones. Estimates will soon be over $8.00 for *this* year imo. So, much of the increase isn't multiple expansion, it is increased profit expectations. Also, as the EPS growth rate heads skyward, multiple expansion is justified. If we adjust $15 a share for excess cash, AAPL is only about 12-13 times this year's earnings. 12.5 would be about 50% of the price of the Nasdaq 100, maybe a bit over! Apple is still very cheap.
    Nov 19, 2014. 02:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Approaches Price Target Too Quickly [View article]
    Doc, you could be right on AAPL, but saying 100% of your calls have been right is wrong. Sorry to call you out, but the only call I noticed from you was a few weeks ago to short the airlines. Anybody following you in that trade got their head ripped off. To your credit, you did advise stopping out. I advised you against the idea at the time if you will remember. The folly is thinking anybody is smart enough to predict the future consistently. Apple could go down, but once the Black Friday crowds start lining up to buy iPads for $199, you may see a lot of upward pressure on Apple. The new watch is coming, and many new products are rumored for the new year. Another technique is to buy and hold the company for the long term. GLTA.
    Nov 18, 2014. 12:32 PM | 23 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Up, Up And Away [View article]
    glen, you cracked the code! Windows/Andy people don't seem to get the importance of customer service. The difference of being able to walk into my Apple store and have my iPhone exchanged on the spot, or get on the phone with Joe for three hours, somewhere in Asia, who gets paid to prevent a return, is like night and day. I would gladly buy a Samsung or Windows product if they worked a little better and I could take it into the MSFT or Sammy store and have it fixed or replaced. Every tech gadget I have ever owned had issues, and some were show stoppers. I have owned a bunch of Windows and Android products, and the problems were almost enough to bring me to tears! Frequent headaches and no way to cure them easily. Apple's customer service isn't the best, but it is very good by US standards. Most other tech companies don't have customer service--none! The comparison is, again, like night and day.
    Nov 13, 2014. 04:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Up, Up And Away [View article]
    Just tagging on to my discussion about price action--It is interesting to note that ~a month ago we were discussing the fact that Deutsche Bank *downgraded* Apple directly after the huge iPhone sales numbers were released, and that helped to move Apple down well below $100. Also, people were writing short Apple articles all the way down at $390 last year! One guy was arguing for the $200s; we are getting closer, but after a 7-1 split! I think we finally got to a higher valuation than late 2012 today. We are, at last, back to the same market cap as September 2012.
    Nov 13, 2014. 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Up, Up And Away [View article]
    I agree, Aussie. The iPad is going to sell very well at these prices. I think we will see the mini available at a number of retail outlets for $199! It becomes much more like an iPod decision at that price, and it is available to a lot more people. The performance of the A8X chip is remarkable. Apple's silence on this technology is odd. Every company would be marketing their prowess, if they had a technology as disruptive as Apple's A series chips--except Apple. The tech sites are just now figuring out basic info on the chip. The downside is that ASPs for iPads are going to drop, but it isn't a huge number anyway. The other big news moving this stock is the Watch. Digitimes is well connected to TSMC and they have just reported that Apple has ordered 30-40MM initial chip orders for the Watch, and that is going to volume production very soon. So, like Bill says--Valentine's Day is going to bring in a lot of revenue versus Easter. And, the ASP of the Watch is going to be much higher than expected because of the fashion dollars going into it. We may get a new TV soon, too, as Sony is rolling out their streaming service--you can bet they have a good idea of what Apple is up to. The big iPad and new 12 inch retina are coming next year, too. Apple is looking very, very strong.
    Nov 13, 2014. 05:27 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Up, Up And Away [View article]
    34% up would put Apple at par with many of the major averages. This melt-up was in the face of significant shorting and expectations for a pull-back, something Apple "always" does after Q4 earnings. The persistent rise indicates very broad buying strength. One could argue that the major averages are overvalued, though.
    Nov 13, 2014. 04:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Up, Up And Away [View article]
    >>Apple should have a blowout holiday season<<

    Agree. All the reports I am seeing say the 6+ is doing better than expected, and that is going to drive a very high ASP on the iPhone. The power of that number to drive the whole quarter is worth studying. At an ASP of ~$700, it will be hard for Apple to stay in the 60s--they will push $70Bn on iPhone growth alone. If the iPad falls off a lot that could help get us more toward guidance. The new CFO seems to be very conservative on his guidance, so I think they are aiming at just under 70Bn anyway. The real reason for the melt-up, though, imho is valuation. Ex-cash, Apple is still selling at a deep discount to many of the major averages. It is simply a value play at these depressed levels. Slap the same PE as the DJ Utilities average on it, and Apple sells for $155 this morning. If you are indexing, you are likely getting a lot more equity for your money buying Apple. Odd, but true.
    Nov 13, 2014. 04:40 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stop The Insanity: Apple Doesn't Have An 'iPad Problem' [View article]
    Barantos, you are repeating yourself. I'm actually a big Intel fan, but you seem to be in denial. It is already in the business segment. The A8X performs like an Intel Core processor from just a few years ago. These are PCs; they are smaller and have virtual keyboards, but they do what PCs have always done for us: email, web access, schedule, store documents, etc. Apple sold over 200MM of these little PCs just last year and they will come close to 100MM in this quarter! None of this existed seven years ago for Apple. Denying the rise of mobile devices, or trying to dismiss them is silly. The truth is that they have been additive and the overall market is booming, but much more of what we do on computers is on mobile now.
    Oct 28, 2014. 01:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Guidance And History Suggest Q1 2015 Revenues Of $66.3 Billion And $2.56 EPS [View article]
    Dennis, I agree forecasting is harder than sapphire. I was talking about not warning over that big of a miss, as being a change.
    Oct 23, 2014. 06:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Guidance And History Suggest Q1 2015 Revenues Of $66.3 Billion And $2.56 EPS [View article]
    JJ, I went in and checked out the 6 and 6+, fully expecting to prefer the 6+. I came away strongly preferring the 6. I'm going to go back before my 2 year contract is up in December and try again. ASP's were up sharply last quarter, but they only had 10 days of sales. Honestly, I think my numbers are conservative. We could be in the 720-730 range because of strong 6+ sales in Asia. The ASP is sneaky. It actually makes the guidance hard to hit---keeping it low enough.
    Oct 23, 2014. 06:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Guidance And History Suggest Q1 2015 Revenues Of $66.3 Billion And $2.56 EPS [View article]
    2putt, Digitmes gave specific numbers on Pegatron and Foxconn today. They said Apple moved the 5c to Wistron to free up Pegatron on the 6. They should knock out 25mm in CY 14, according to Digi. Foxconn gets the same 25MM, and they have responsibility for the 6+. My guess is 25-30MM. So, if they have moved from 500k to 700k the math works about right on your rumor and Digitimes. That would be 75-80MM iP6/6+ total in CY 14, which is what the WSJ said. Assuming 50-55MM 6/6+ sales this qtr, and 10-15MM 5S/5C models, they would sell 60-70MM this quarter. 65mm, the middle of the range, is a decent guess. 70 Bn+ without a lot of Mac help if they get 65MM.
    Oct 23, 2014. 06:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Guidance And History Suggest Q1 2015 Revenues Of $66.3 Billion And $2.56 EPS [View article]
    Dennis, no warning and they were out the top end over 5% this qtr.. That is a change of practice. I would have agreed until this qtr. I think Maestri is more conservative. But, my biggest reason is working the math on the phones. Higher ASPs and 25% on units equal 70 Bn.
    Oct 23, 2014. 05:51 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Guidance And History Suggest Q1 2015 Revenues Of $66.3 Billion And $2.56 EPS [View article]
    I disagree. Apple was *extremely* conservative this time. They are sandbagging again, like they used to do. Phone ASPs are likely about 700 this quarter, due to higher prices. They have said iPhone sales are way up. 60MM phones this quarter is up a little less than 20%. 20% is not way up in most books. 60X700 = 42Bn, or almost 10 Bn more than last year. So, with no help from increased Mac sales or any other increases, and less than 20% growth in phones, they are at 67Bn. My guidance is 70 Bn plus/minus 3Bn. Much more realistic imho. That is about 64mm phones and a decent bump in Macs. I think it is conservative. With a bit on the buyback that is about 2.75. They could earn 3.00 if they hit toward the high end of my range---very possible!
    Oct 23, 2014. 04:47 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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