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  • Apple: Record iPhone 6 Pre-Orders Versus No China In 2014 [View article]
    Actually, many of the Android and Windows tablets are being subsidized--sold at a loss. Intel is selling chips at a loss; the software is being given away. They didn't start with that proposition. That is the only way to move Wintel and Android products, as consumers strongly prefer Apple's customer service, solid engineering, software updating, and product quality. I can assure that Intel and Microsoft don't give away products because they want to.
    Sep 18 10:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Record iPhone 6 Pre-Orders Versus No China In 2014 [View article]
    I agree Nic! The 6+ will cut into mini sales. I think they will still sell millions, but on the lower end. I suspect Apple is positioning the mini against the give-away tablets Wintel and Android have been forced to subsidize. But, I believe the 6+ will take more Android sales than mini sales for an overall positive impact.
    Sep 18 09:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Record iPhone 6 Pre-Orders Versus No China In 2014 [View article]
    A couple of points: if sales scale linearly from 2012, which was a similar footprint, we are looking at 10MM first weekend. (First 24 up 100%, first weekend up 100% would be 10MM) That is my guess. But, since that is a 100% increase and the stores may not scale perfectly, we could come in a little lower. Last year was confusing because the 5C wasn't new and probably didn't sell out the inventory. That was an anomaly and has never happened before. China was also in last year's numbers. They likely put some inventory stuffing (many analysts said 2-3MM) in those numbers and that cost overall 1Q sales. It also makes last year look deceptively high. 10MM really is a blowout and it is extremely bullish for '14. But, Bill, the real issue that needs to be discussed is ASPs. The 6 is $100 more than the 5C, and the 6+ is $100 more than the 5S. The new memory tiers will increase upselling. Finally, last year's ASP in the holiday qtr was ~$636. I expect this year's to top $700! Multiplying $700 times the massive phone sales is going to force much higher sales and profits. I also expect margins to beat. Reuters reports that Apple has made progress, and I expect China before long. GLTA.
    Sep 18 08:45 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Apple Xiaomi Problems Grow [View article]
    We will see.
    Sep 17 04:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Apple Xiaomi Problems Grow [View article]
    Actually we don't know anything certain on the China roll date yet. Just rumors at this point, that it will be delayed till '15. It is possible, but so is an October roll date.
    Sep 17 02:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Can't Believe The Apple Hype [View article]
    Actually I've been put on restriction by the fan club for criticizing the watch...just an objective observer who understands that Microsoft and Google are no longer competitive with Apple. Why do you think Wintel is now giving away tablets? You could argue that they are trying to compete with Google, but Android has bad problems and has had to rely on subsidizing their products, too.
    Sep 17 02:22 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Can't Believe The Apple Hype [View article]
    Barantos, did you eat your prunes, today?
    Sep 17 02:07 PM | 27 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Can't Believe The Apple Hype [View article]
    Euphoria comes in all shapes and sizes. You can have your identity stolen on a big, beautiful and cheap Android phone; you can spend the rest of your free time on hold with Sam and Suzi at Windows support somewhere in Asia; or you can pay up and buy an iPhone...the euphoria starts after you get your bill paid. One thing is sure, there is no euphoria on WS when Apple has a PE 14 and the Nasdaq 100 has a PE of 23! I am hoping some will set in soon. Entertaining and a good discussion...agreed.
    Sep 17 01:23 PM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Apple Xiaomi Problems Grow [View article]
    The most important point is that the iP6/+ will likely drive ASPs over $700 per phone in the holiday quarter, or at least very close. Analyst estimates heading much higher. Note to author: China does *not* want to start a trade war, and delaying the iPhones in China is sure way to start one.
    Sep 17 12:52 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Apple Xiaomi Problems Grow [View article]
    An entire thesis on one unreliable rumor? For another view, Digitimes reported this morning that supply chain sources are saying Apple has production plans for 80-100MM iP6/+ models in '14, much higher than originally estimated. WSJ this AM says Foxconn unable to keep up with the massive demand on the iP6. I doubt Apple would be ordering 80-100MM components if they didn't know when China was going live on orders. I suspect the delay is simply a question of being able to meet the demand--Apple doesn't want to create unfulfilled demand.
    Sep 17 12:50 PM | 27 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Shares Are Ripe For A Pullback - Time To Take Profits [View article]
    And that doesn't count other manufacturers like Pegatron, which was rumored to have gotten a major piece of the production pie.
    Sep 17 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple And Conspicuous Consumption: So What? [View article]
    It isn't even mostly fad, though. The truth is that Apple just works a lot better than the competition. We hear endlessly about a breach that wasn't even attributed to Apple, but with the accounts themselves. Android is downright wide open, though. The Android Browser flaw is being termed a "privacy disaster," as passwords and everything else are wide open to hackers. Yet, barely a word of it in the media! Computer science isn't easy, but Apple is the best available. And that is why they will continue selling millions of iP6s at $800 every day.
    http://bit.ly/1snS7zy
    Sep 17 10:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch: 3 Things You May Want To Know [View article]
    Yep, I think you are being a bit pessimistic, although I agree with the wait and see attitude. Also, you have to give Apple's designers some credit. They know how to do consumer electronics and probably wouldn't have announced a half-baked design. The Watch is all gravy anyway, so there really isn't much point in getting excited until we see what it does. I don't think I want one, but that doesn't mean it won't sell well.
    Sep 17 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Way Now Open To $120 [View article]
    Digitimes this AM drops the 80-100MM iP6s in '14 bomb *again*. They are particularly well connected in Taiwan, and they are using TSMC orders for components and supply chain contacts as justification. As a rough reference, 100MM is up ~67% over 2012. They sold 47.8MM phones in the holiday qtr in 2012.
    http://bit.ly/1s6pXPi

    The bigger story, IMHO, is that Apple has dramatically raised the prices. Nobody is talking about this. With the change in memory tier pricing, more customers are buying the mid-tier, and the plus is $100 more. ASPs, margins, revs heading up. Obviously, analysts aren't counting on anything remotely close to 80-100MM, and I discount those numbers myself, but it certainly sounds like Apple expects to sell a lot of phones. Also sounds like they know China's rollout date, too.
    Sep 17 08:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch: 3 Things You May Want To Know [View article]
    One more rumor from the supply chain this AM: Apple expects to sell ~50MM watches next year, with ~5MM/month displays coming from LG.
    http://bit.ly/1s6p6y7
    Sep 17 08:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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