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  • Apple: iPhone 6 Plus A Star, ASP To Rise [View article]
    Mr. Market is giving away Apple shares compared to the index values. Just taking a look at the forward PEs for this morning's snapshot--NSDQ 100, S&P 500 and Russ 2000 are all in the 17-18 range for forward estimates. Giving Apple half credit for their cash~$10, plus 17.5(PE) X 7.84(this year's est.) and we get a value of ~$147. That is if they hit estimates. If they beat, it should be higher. Indexing is so prevalent now and Apple is significantly underpriced compared to the indexes. Plug in the DJ Utilities valuation and we really take off on price! If we credit Apple's cash, Mr. Market is saying that the average utility's earnings should have a valuation over 50% higher than Apple's, and that the average Russell 2000 stock's earnings should be valued a little under 50% higher than Apple's earnings.
    Jan 26, 2015. 12:15 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Preview: Up, Up And Away [View article]
    Bill, you always do a great and objective job. I think you are a little low on your iPhone ASPs, a little high on your iPad ASPs, a little low on your iPad sales. Otherwise, nearly perfect. I think the ASPs and other changes put them over 70Bn and $2.70. If Ming-Chi Kuo is right, as he often is, and my ASPs are right...look out Moon. GLTA.
    Jan 26, 2015. 08:53 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Preview: Up, Up And Away [View article]
    Good for you. Nice to see some Semper Fi here on SA! A couple of interesting points: Bill is calling for a fairly low (IMHO) ASP. I think it will be about 700. But, I could be wrong because of currencies. The soaring dollar will definitely hurt ASPs, and I didn't think it would get nearly as high as it has. It is really going to hammer European sales for guidance. I figure around 66MM iPhones at an ASP of 700 will get them very close to 70Bn in revs! If some of the bullish analysts are right, and they sell 70MM iPhones, my ASP of 700 will provide the mother of all blowouts tomorrow. Watch ASPs in addition to units sold. Bottom line, though, is Apple is selling--today--at a very steep discount to the major averages, and that gives ZERO credit for their cash. The herd is indexing now, so Apple is either irrationally cheap, or the indexes are irrationally expensive. Apple would be selling for about $150 this morning with a typical index fund valuation. GLTA.
    Jan 26, 2015. 08:47 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Fiscal Q1: Eye-Popping Results To Come [View article]
    Jeff, my model has ~65 - 66MM phones as the 70Bn crossover point. That assumes 700 as an ASP. Currency headwinds could knock it a little below 700. 68-69 would get them to about 72Bn. That is almost 5Bn above the top end of guidance, and completely jumps the 60Bn handle for revs! It just seems to me that they would have guided up if they were going to blow it out by that much. That makes me more cautious, maybe 64.5MM phones and 69+Bn in revs. I would love it if you were right, though. Regardless, Apple's growth alone this quarter is almost as big as 100% of Intel's revenues. What is most amazing is that Apple is selling at a very deep discount to all of the major averages. If you sell an index fund and buy Apple you are lowering your PE multiple by several points. Should be interesting and GLTA.
    Jan 24, 2015. 10:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Fiscal Q1: Eye-Popping Results To Come [View article]
    Apple can surprise up and down! In 2012, it was like a rocket after earnings, and that is the huge risk of being out going into earnings. A blowout could cause a huge jump in the AH market. There is something very different this year: I am reading rumors that they are going to intro new products soon, in addition the Watch. They really haven't had any new products outside of the Fall timeframe in years. ATV is due for a big upgrade, as are new Macs, and possibly new iPads. A blowout followed by more new products may get us to 150 sooner than later. Apple would be 150-160 this morning if it simply had the same PE as the major market averages, so it could jump 30% on multiple alone and still not be overvalued compared to index funds and major averages. Apple is very, very cheap. Of course, bad news can always tank it. GLTA.
    Jan 23, 2015. 11:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Fiscal Q1: Eye-Popping Results To Come [View article]
    Jan 22, 2015. 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Fiscal Q1: Eye-Popping Results To Come [View article]
    Q1 net margin is higher because of the new products/higher prices. This year should be even higher because of the iPad for iPhone swaps. I think JW is close on revs and low on EPS. One breaking news factor: VZ announced absolutely stunning smartphone activation growth YOY this morning! They don't break out iPhone anymore, but you can bet iPhone is behind it. 70 Bn completely jumps over the 60s--AAPL only had 57+ last year. GLTA.
    Jan 22, 2015. 09:39 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Preview: Prelude To A Year Of Remarkable Growth [View article]
    Well, I am reading that they might be getting ready for a number of new products--blowout, plus good guidance, plus new products this quarter (we already know about the watch), and I think we may start pushing to the mid 100s--sooner rather than later. That is predicated on all of the above, and currencies not nuking the numbers. That is the one big negative I didn't count on...
    Jan 21, 2015. 01:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Examining The iPad Issue [View article]
    But, don't forget that trading a $400 mini customer up to an $800 6+ is a huge win for Apple. I have been predicting since September that the story on Tuesday is going to be iPhone ASPs! I think they will be around 700. Consequently, even low 60s should be enough to meet guidance, and if some of these crazy numbers floating around (70MM phones) by analysts are anywhere close to right, it will be the mother of all blowouts--top and bottom line. But, just looking at the WSJ forward estimates this morning, Apple should be selling for 150-160 today based on current numbers. We are in the twilight zone for valuations when Apple is selling at a huge discount to the major averages--DJ Utilities, Trannys, S&P 500, NSDQ 100, NSDQ--take your pick and Apple jumps to about 150 today.
    Jan 21, 2015. 01:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Preview: Prelude To A Year Of Remarkable Growth [View article]
    2putt, those numbers would be shocking, to say the least. The point I have been pounding since September was higher ASPs on iPhone. Even if we use Mark's 67.6MM phones (which would be incredible growth), when we multiply by ~700 as an ASP, we are up ~15 Bn over last year's 1Q! Just assuming the rest of the company was flat (plus on Macs and services, minus on iPad and iPod), that would put Apple at around 72Bn. I just have to think they would have updated guidance if they were going to be 5Bn out the top end, but you never know with that bunch. This is going to be interesting, but my brain is telling me to tone the numbers down. 63MM iPhones should be more than enough to meet current analyst estimates.
    Jan 21, 2015. 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Preview: Prelude To A Year Of Remarkable Growth [View article]
    Beware, guys and remember 2012. That was the last time we saw a blowout and much higher than expected margins. The stock took off and didn't take a break.
    Jan 21, 2015. 01:00 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Preview: Prelude To A Year Of Remarkable Growth [View article]
    beefy, I agree that Apple is way, way too cheap right now. Even if we discount the value of their cash by ~50%, using the same forward valuation as most of the major averages gives us Apple at ~150 this morning! The only problem is that analyst estimates are too low--Apple should blow past their numbers. 150-160 really is where Apple should be priced right now. That is using typical NSDQ, S&P 500, Dow utilities valuations. Apple is one of the cheapest names out there.
    Jan 21, 2015. 12:57 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here We Go Again: No, Apple Will Not Replace Intel [View article]
    Terrier, don't forget that author isn't the only one saying this. A prominent Apple analyst in Asia, who bases most of his claims on industry contacts, said it again in the last couple of weeks. SemiAccurate said (emphatically) the final decision was made in 2011 to drop Intel. Obviously, that decision would take years to implement--about now was their guess. I considered the possibility that Apple carefully nurtured the rumor to improve their leverage with Intel. Anything is possible; however, if you simply model Apple's recent typical 20-50% improvement from the A8X, along with another 100% jump in graphics we are already at laptop performance with a phone/tablet chip!! If they bump the clocks and tweak the TDP up, I think 14nm can give them a chip that is very competitive with Intel. We will see. As an aside, it isn't just Apple. There is a lot of competent competition in chip design now. Software is an issue, but Apple has control of that, unlike most other companies in the business. They could do it. They may not want to, but they could. They have the resources and the expertise. I'm a big fan of Intel, btw.
    Jan 16, 2015. 11:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Pays To 'Think Different' About Apple's Stock Price [View article]
    Good job, even though I disagree with your call. Current estimates call for 66.22Bn and 2.52. Both are rising each day. As big a number as that is, I think it is way too low! It is less than 9Bn more than last year's 1Q. Two respected analysts raised their targets and were in the news today: Kuo and Caso. Both are checking the order chain and both are calling for a huge increase in iPhone sales. The lower of the two is calling for almost a 30% increase at the top of his range. What a lot of people are missing, though, is last year's 5C and 5S sold for less than the 6 and 6+ and they still had an ASP of $637 (all iPhones). I think we will be over $700 this year. The lower number times $700 is 13Bn in increased revs. Apple has called this year's phone sales growth dramatic--not just up, but way up. So Mr. Kuo may be right. This quarter is going to be much higher than current estimates, probably over 70Bn and approaching $3. If Mr. Kuo is correct, we are likely looking at ~75Bn and well over $3. Maybe the stock could relax, but it is currently discounted on the low numbers, and, *most importantly*, they have a number of new products rolling in the new year. They haven't rolled out new products in the first calendar quarter in years. GLTA, and again, very well written article.
    Nov 24, 2014. 04:36 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Wait To Invest New Money In Apple [View article]
    Patrick, I think Gary is saying look at the people who bought at $700 two years ago. They are up over 20% total, and that is the worst possible case, as long as you bought and held. Those who were buying at $390 are up over 100% in a little over a year. Sometimes trying to call the perfect trades causes you to miss the gain--a very real risk that many try to deny or ignore. Apple may keep going, as the most recent iPhone estimates are very high! A huge beat, along with a bunch of new products in the New Year are going to make it hard for Apple to go down. Because of the buyback and the exploding analyst estimates, I think we are still significantly discounted from the major averages, especially when cash is adjusted. There just aren't many bargains out there. Apple is on sale and it is more solid than most of the companies in the indexes that are more expensive.
    Nov 24, 2014. 04:10 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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