Apple's Share Price In The Context Of Risk And Reward [View article]
I may not be doing the math right, but your worst case has a ~640 ASP for iPhone this year. I think last quarter's ASP was ~613, so it might be a whole lot worse than your worst case. The iPhone 5 isn't selling well and the ASP's appear to be getting clobbered by a lower priced mix. This doesn't seem like a good sign for the 5S, assuming it follows the path of minor S upgrades.
Why A Budget iPhone Is A Great Idea: 4 Reasons [View article]
I agree, but I own it and consider it a fantastic design. I think it may be a combination of market saturation, increased high quality competition, price sensitivity, and fear of LTE data plans, and some customer demand for a larger phone option on the menu. The long term implications are that all of those reasons would mean dramatically slowing growth rates for 600-800 dollar phones. That is where the lower cost phone comes in. I am reluctant to underestimate Apple's ability to come back, but this is a huge break from the past. I agree, btw, that they will likely bring something more like the mini to market. It won't seem cheap, but it will be more affordable for Asia.
Why A Budget iPhone Is A Great Idea: 4 Reasons [View article]
Simple, you have to look at the growth rate, not the phone itself. Just think about it: every iPhone has sold as much as all preceding phones combined! That is huge growth! The iPhone 5, in just its second full qtr, was outsold by the 4S last year! It is a huge break from the past. It could be nothing more than market saturation, but even then I would expect that it would have outsold the 4S, wouldn't you?
Why A Budget iPhone Is A Great Idea: 4 Reasons [View article]
The buyback and dividend have been great for the price of the stock, but Apple fundamentals going forward face some serious headwinds. I have yet to see an article pointing out how the iPhone 5 is the first iPhone sales growth failure. Look at the numbers from various sources and Apple sold more 4S models in last year's 2Q than they sold iP5 models this year! Considering *every other* iPhone has outsold the combination of all previous generations cumulatively, the epic failure of the iPhone 5 in sales growth is hard to overstate. It would not surprise me if Apple is planning to jump the 5S and go to the 6, along with lower cost plastic 5 models. Let's hope they can get growth rekindled!
KIS, if you put quotes up, you need to quote accurately. My whole family has the 5! The problem isn't my family or your friends. The problem is the numbers. iPhone 5 is the first turkey iPhone (from a sales growth standpoint only) Apple has ever produced. It appears to have shrunk YOY last qtr from iP4S sales, according to reports. People have speculated as to why--saturation, int'l sales imploding due to Android and others, weak battery life on the 5, etc. It could be a combo, or something else, but the key point is that iPhone 5 sales in the last qtr did not grow over last year's iP4S sales, and that is an astounding departure from all previous generations. The big warnings from key suppliers could back this up--that Apple appears to have been planning for much higher sales figures, perhaps tens of millions in CY'13.
Relayer, you need to face the facts and stop being emotional. An Apple exec pointed out (in the Samsung testimony) that each iPhone generation outsold all previous phones combined. The 4S sold roughly more than the 4, 3GS, 3, etc. combined. The 4 sold more than all preceding phones combined--you get the idea. The 5 is the first iPhone to break that mold, but it is much, much worse than that actually, and it has yet to get picked up in the press. If you look at the projected sales numbers, the 4S actually sold more in last year's 1Q than the 5 did in this year's 1Q! So, not only are iPhone sales barely growing, now it is the older discounted models that have any growth at all. The headline phone--the 5--actually declined YOY in its second quarter. So, overall this is very, very disturbing to Apple investors. The trend is what is disturbing. The 5 is doing terribly compared to all preceding iPhones, in terms of sales. If you need me to elaborate and post links, I can. It really isn't personal or hating; these are facts. That is why you are seeing all of the huge warnings, most likely, because Apple probably expected tens of millions more iPhone 5 sales. That is what is scary to me about the 5S, assuming it is just a camera and processor bump.
Bill, Just lucky? I agree that Apple has come a long way. Of course, I think it sold off a mile more than warranted, so this could simply be a needed correction up. However, there are huge headwinds coming for Apple. This quarter's guidance is terrible. TC said new products are coming in the Fall--4-5 months away from now! If they make $36-$38 a share in this year, it means the second half will be horrendously bad because the first half was OK. The trend of imploding earnings in the second half is very dangerous. The next quarter's guidance may be worse because of the lack of new products. We could see the $300s again if we get another panic. The optimism is all based on Apple's pipeline, but in light of how terrible the iPhone 5 sales numbers have been, do we really believe a slightly modified 5S will move the needle? That is the real danger. If the 5S fails as badly commercially as the 5 has failed, then look out below.
Apple's Thinning Retail Margins Remain A Hurdle [View article]
I didn't love the Apple store when RJ ran it, and it isn't great now. However, compared to the absolutely abysmal/non-existent customer service that is available at all things PC, it is light years better! You can actually find somebody in the Apple store that will fix your issues. That is one big reason why I switched to IOS/Mac. The stores fuel online sales, so they cause the high margins.
Legendary Short Seller Jim Chanos Likes Being Long Apple And Short Dell [View article]
Wish I knew! Could be saturation. Could be fear of LTE on data usage plans--it can use data fast. Could be Apple has lost its cool factor. Could be a combination. I own it and like it, but would rather have a bigger (and higher res--not higher PPI) screen and better battery life. Those are my only complaints. The sales numbers are way down, though, and it has largely been unreported in the press. Every other iPhone has grown dramatically, even astronomically. The 5 is the first to actually shrink, assuming the ATD sales figures are close to correct.
Legendary Short Seller Jim Chanos Likes Being Long Apple And Short Dell [View article]
I would be careful! The iPhone 5 is Apple's first iPhone sales dud. Looking at market share on ATD, they likely sold a little under 20mm 5s last qtr. When you consider they likely sold about 25 million 4S models in the same qtr last year, you begin to realize how badly the 5 has performed. Every previous gen iPhone grew astronomically, and the 5 is actually shrinking. That is why the suppliers are taking the big writedowns--Apple has pushed out production--assuming the numbers are correct, of course. But, the Galaxy SIV and HTC One are just now hitting the market and will likely hit iPhone sales hard. That is why Apple is guiding for flat revs and a ~25% profit drop this qtr! If they earn, about $35-$37 this year(what guidance indicates), a PE of 10 puts it in the mid 300s. It could get much worse because Fall doesn't even start for almost 5 months--two more quarters!
You Better Duck - Apple's Unit Profits Are Falling [View article]
Yep, the Apple gang is in denial, and crunching the numbers is out of the question. The funny thing is that Stephen is looking back and his numbers actually look great. If he projects on the numbers Apple released for this quarter the numbers are about to head over the cliff. If you run the guidance out, they are forecasting about $7 a share plus or minus the variables. So, with profits looking to drop almost 30% this quarter and no new products coming for two quarters, it is really going to get ugly. YHOO is still showing 43+ a share this year, but it is likely moving toward $35 for the year, depending on how badly they perform.
Apple Investors Are Missing The Big Picture [View article]
Not all of them, but they have gotten very positive reviews. CNET, for example, gives the iP5 4 stars, and it gives the HTC one 4, too, but it gives The Galaxy SIV 4.5 stars. There are many other great reviews out there. Perhaps you are in denial as to why Apple's growth has stopped, and profits are forecast to fall about 25% this quarter. The iP4S sold millions more last year than the 5 is selling this year. That is bad. And since the public appears to have rejected the 5, based on growth rates, how is rewarming a 5S going to make it better? Maybe the delay is to jump to the 6, we'll see. Good luck.
Apple's Earnings Projections Continue To Irritate Wall Street [View article]
Sorry to burst your bubble, guys, but no it can't. Total iPhone sales were up a bit over 6% YOY. I can post previous generation growth rates, but they are astronomically higher. iPhone sales growth has essentially stopped, and the iPhone 5 has been estimated to be just over 50% of the total, not just at Verizon and Sprint. Assuming iPhone 4s sales were 75% of the mix last year, then Apple sold a lot more 4S models last year than 5 models this year--like almost ten million more worldwide. That is shocking! You can read this article on ATD on the subject if you don't believe me: http://dthin.gs/YWZAHZ Assuming those numbers are correct, the iPhone 5 is a complete sales dud. Maybe it will sell better when they mark it down a couple of hundred bucks, but how is that positive? Also, if KIS is correct in his statement that the current offering of iPhones is available at "many more carriers" than last year and sales are up a mere 6%, then that means growth has really stopped. Back out VZ and ATT and iPhone sales are shrinking YOY. Those are the facts.
Apple's Share Price In The Context Of Risk And Reward [View article]
Why A Budget iPhone Is A Great Idea: 4 Reasons [View article]
Why A Budget iPhone Is A Great Idea: 4 Reasons [View article]
Why A Budget iPhone Is A Great Idea: 4 Reasons [View article]
Why A Budget iPhone Is A Great Idea: 4 Reasons [View article]
Why A Budget iPhone Is A Great Idea: 4 Reasons [View article]
Apple: Too Far, Too Fast? [View article]
Apple: Too Far, Too Fast? [View article]
Apple: Too Far, Too Fast? [View article]
Just lucky? I agree that Apple has come a long way. Of course, I think it sold off a mile more than warranted, so this could simply be a needed correction up. However, there are huge headwinds coming for Apple. This quarter's guidance is terrible. TC said new products are coming in the Fall--4-5 months away from now! If they make $36-$38 a share in this year, it means the second half will be horrendously bad because the first half was OK. The trend of imploding earnings in the second half is very dangerous. The next quarter's guidance may be worse because of the lack of new products. We could see the $300s again if we get another panic. The optimism is all based on Apple's pipeline, but in light of how terrible the iPhone 5 sales numbers have been, do we really believe a slightly modified 5S will move the needle? That is the real danger. If the 5S fails as badly commercially as the 5 has failed, then look out below.
Apple's Thinning Retail Margins Remain A Hurdle [View article]
Legendary Short Seller Jim Chanos Likes Being Long Apple And Short Dell [View article]
Legendary Short Seller Jim Chanos Likes Being Long Apple And Short Dell [View article]
You Better Duck - Apple's Unit Profits Are Falling [View article]
Apple Investors Are Missing The Big Picture [View article]
Apple's Earnings Projections Continue To Irritate Wall Street [View article]
Assuming those numbers are correct, the iPhone 5 is a complete sales dud. Maybe it will sell better when they mark it down a couple of hundred bucks, but how is that positive? Also, if KIS is correct in his statement that the current offering of iPhones is available at "many more carriers" than last year and sales are up a mere 6%, then that means growth has really stopped. Back out VZ and ATT and iPhone sales are shrinking YOY. Those are the facts.