keneaise

Economic Drubbing Should Subside - Temporarily

Richjoy, I agree that the negative perspective helps keep us grounded. I also agree that making a forecast of a market drubbing followed by a depression without any supporting reasons or theories seems to be shouting gloom and doom for it's own sake. I believe Mr Kee has what he considers reasonable supporting information and forecasting models but chose not to share them for some reason. This choice makes the article more skeleton than meat.

I Think Big's statement "The rest of us will vote in responsible leadership in 2012" is a self-delusion. It ain't gonna happen. The issue is much more complex than that. It's going to take a lot more than a few new faces. I am retired and am seeing huge increases in core costs of living combined with erosion of buying power and little return from my investments. Conceptually, I love Mr Kee's Investment Rate model but even if it worked to perfection, I could not afford what to me is a pretty steep $200 a month fee. This kind of fee to the average investor in these times could only be justified in retrospect. It is hard to know what to do with so many biased and self-serving articles out there.

Have Recent Crises Blown a Hole Through Modern Financial Theory?

It is very refreshing to finally see the right question being asked and addressed. Was going to congratulate you for being on the right track Roger but later saw that Bill Janeway and his gang deserve the credit. Never-the-less, thanks for the preview. I too look forward to the release of their analysis. I currently have no faith in the accuracy of any of the available financial information. If it is valid at all, it is so only as a "snapshot" as of the moment the data was mined and analyzed. Tomorrow may deliver a vastly different picture for us to digest or regurgitate.

Don't Wait for the Official End of the Recession

I would love to believe your perspective is accurate. Instead though, I think it is a dangerous invitation to the small guys on main street to prematurely get back in the market and lose what's left of thier shirts. The issues facing us today are far more complex than they were in the time periods you cite.