Ron2008's Comments

Gold to Natural Gas Ratio: What It Could Potentially Mean

Fri, 18 Dec 2009 15:50:42 -0500

"If winter turns out to be a little colder than expected, then we could draw down on those supplies a lot faster than expected."

That's funny. A "lttle colder" will get rid of the highest inventory in history? I doubt it.

Someone said if we have the coldest winter that happened this decade, we we still have 15% more than the 5 year average in inventory at the end of this winter.

Oil Rebounds on Supply and Inflation Data

Fri, 18 Dec 2009 13:55:44 -0500

I don't know why anyone bothers to look at and repeat API data.

Retail Sales: No Boom, Just Doom and Gloom

Mon, 14 Dec 2009 13:21:56 -0500

Thanks for the article. Very good data.

Natural Gas Up on Huge EIA Draw

Mon, 14 Dec 2009 13:15:09 -0500

LIke Dogpound said, the NG draw was the 2nd LOWEST in the last 10 years for that week. So how is that huge or large? The media misrepresented that one by a huge amount.

Come on SA, you can be better than that.

Investment in Commodities for the Coming Decade

Fri, 11 Dec 2009 14:35:53 -0500

As others said, DB does not stand for double.

Jim Rogers: Lessons from a Legend

Fri, 11 Dec 2009 14:25:53 -0500

You are definitely correct on this point!

On Dec 10 09:31 PM Kitegeezer wrote:

> I can tell you that Rogers recommendation to buy a farm is bunk.
> You would be far better off buying agricultural futures and living
> in a nice residence in a cosmopolitan city. The history of civilization
> is built on exploiting farmers, today is no different. How much bargaining
> power does a farmer have? - you tell me, he has to borrow money for
> inputs and his suppliers and customers are essentially the same people.
> Where I live in Brazil, they are exactly the same people.

Today in Commodities: Dust Starts to Settle

Fri, 11 Dec 2009 14:15:54 -0500

Melsen, chart out a NG futures chart. The prices peak in Nov and DROP through the winter. The last 5 winters have had higher prices in Nov than Feb.

On Dec 10 08:52 AM Melsen wrote:

> Regarding NG trading at higher prices in winter, it is only natural
> considering seasonal demand and drawdowns in inventories.

After Failing to Cruise Past $80, Crude's Stuck Around $70

Fri, 11 Dec 2009 13:48:36 -0500

"The winter months are upon many parts of the US, which means demand for petroleum based products for home heating and transportation will be on the rise."

Demand for oil products for transportation in the winter decreases not increases. This easily offsets the increased heating oil demand.

Today in Commodities: Crouching Tiger Hidden Commodity

Fri, 11 Dec 2009 13:37:34 -0500

You can't see that there is no demand for oil right now? That refineries are shutting down because of a lack of demand? That there are millions of barrels of oil and oil products in floating storage? That Cushing is getting very full?

Only funds think oil should be above $70 right now.

On Dec 10 05:30 PM rick12345 wrote:

> Oil has been dumped for no particular reason that I can see. While
> it should be at $80 - $85 and heading toward a $100 average, strangely
> it hasn't.

Finally, An Encouraging Jobs Report

Fri, 04 Dec 2009 10:40:06 -0500

After digging through the data there was a big jump in one sector. It gained 87,000 jobs. Here is a description of that sector.

Activities performed include: office administration, hiring and placing of personnel, document preparation and similar clerical services, solicitation, collection, security and surveillance services, cleaning, and waste disposal services.

In other words. Secretaries and cleaning ladies got hired.
www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/ia...

Non-Farm Payrolls: Shockingly Good News

Fri, 04 Dec 2009 10:15:20 -0500

Construction, manufacturing, leisure and retail all lost jobs. Men lost jobs. Women gained jobs.

After digging through the data there was a big jump in one sector. It gained 87,000 jobs. Here is a description of that sector.

Activities performed include: office administration, hiring and placing of personnel, document preparation and similar clerical services, solicitation, collection, security and surveillance services, cleaning, and waste disposal services.

In other words. Secretaries and cleaning ladies got hired.

Non-Farm Payrolls: Shockingly Good News

Fri, 04 Dec 2009 10:14:11 -0500

Somehow the US lost 98,000 more workers in Nov. Or the workforce has decreased by 1.2 million since May.

Where did they go?

On Dec 04 09:25 AM Nathaniel C wrote:

> I would really like to see the Birth/Death adjustment the BLS uses
> which magically creates jobs.

The upside surprise in nonfarm payrolls today is the second-biggest this year (in June, expectations were for -520K jobs and the actual number came in at -345K), and among the biggest expectations "beats" in the past 10 years.

Fri, 04 Dec 2009 10:09:14 -0500

Nobody seems to have looked deeper into this number today. Men lost jobs. Women gained jobs. Construction, manufacturing, retail and leisure lost jobs. Health workers gained.

But the biggest gain in jobs? 87,000? This sector as described by the gov.

Activities performed include: office administration, hiring and placing of personnel, document preparation and similar clerical services, solicitation, collection, security and surveillance services, cleaning, and waste disposal services.

Secretaries and cleaning ladies.

Natural Gas Gains: Not Convinced of Sustainability

Wed, 02 Dec 2009 00:22:37 -0500

The US has been exporting LNG for years to Japan. Piping it to Mexico and Canada. But it is a very small amount.

tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav...

Natural Gas: U-Turn Follow Up

Mon, 30 Nov 2009 14:12:18 -0500

NG bulls need to read this article. Not some chart saying 11.25.

U.S. imports of liquefied natural gas will rise 34 percent this year to about 470 billion cubic feet and another 40 percent in 2010, the Energy Department forecast on Nov. 10.
www.bloomberg.com/apps...

The Market Wakes Up to Natural Gas

Mon, 30 Nov 2009 13:51:17 -0500

Horrible article.

The price was up 68 cents because the Dec contract went off Tuesday. The Jan contract was up only 39 cents. And as I write this the Jan contract is down 35 cents to almost where it was on last Tuesday.

Valero's Major Announcement a Telling Economic Indicator

Mon, 23 Nov 2009 17:20:11 -0500

So if the refineries don't need the oil then why is it above $75?

Because that is where Wall Street (GS and JPM) want it.

They didn't put enough companies out of business last year. They want to screw the refineries too.

World Series of Crude Oil: Winner Decides Winter Gasoline Prices

Tue, 27 Oct 2009 23:15:29 -0400

Looking at the new DCOT report, the Manged Money net long percentage of total open interest is at its' highest level for the the entire 3+ years of data given to us by the CFTC. Even higher than it was in 2008.

In the last 3 weeks the Managed Money group has gone from 60,002 net long to 130,712 net long in crude oil. And not surprisingly, the price went from 66.71 to 79.09 on the day of the reports.

Managed Money is clearly driving prices.

The Manged Money group also added a huge 21,605 net longs last week in Unleaded Gasoline. Highly unusual for this time of the year.

What is the Goldman and JPMorgan game plan? Looks like going long right now. But that doesn't make sense to me. There are very few fundamentals to back up this latest rise. They are on their own.

World Recovery Is in the Hands of OPEC

Mon, 26 Oct 2009 13:21:04 -0400

The problem is you are treating oil as an asset class and not a commodity. Thus more dollars are chasing to the long side of oil than normally would.

If all of the specs who wanted to preserve the value of their wealth would buy precious metals, then you would have your safe haven and the economy wouldn't be ruined by the specs buying a commodity that affects the world to such a huge extent.

I hope you realize how big a "tax" the inflated prices of oil and gasoline, caused by your speculation, are to the US economy.

The US uses about 14 million barrels of oil a day, right now. If there is $20 of spec premium added to the price, that is a $280 million dollar per day "tax". $8.4 billion a month. $102 billion a year.

By speculating to preserve your wealth, you are on the other hand causing the price of everything you purchase to cost more. Are you really gaining anything?

On Oct 25 10:40 PM derryl wrote:

> The "wall of liquidity" that is chasing all asset classes, including
> commodities like oil, is interested not only and often not even primarily
> in making speculative gains. A lot of this money is just pension
> funds and ETF retail investors like you and me trying to preserve
> the value of our wealth as the dollar devalues. Yes this 'speculative'
> money holds the price of oil higher than oil market supply and demand
> would indicate, but how do you tell all those people that you're
> not allowing them to put their wealth into commodities to preserve
> it against devaluation? (I own oil stocks but not ETFs, though I
> sympathize with ETF commodity 'speculators')

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Prices: Scaring Investors in Time for Halloween

Wed, 21 Oct 2009 16:05:06 -0400

Yes there will be decreasing imports, but there are zero signs of increasing demand. And today's jump up in prices will not help demand at all.

I fail to see how a report that said gasoline demand decreased was bullish for prices. But that is where the specs want it to go.

On Oct 20 01:27 PM ryanclarke wrote:

> If the dollar continues to weaken and gasoline continues NOT to be
> imported from oversees into the United States, the U.S. should experinece
> a rerun of the Fall of 2007. My prediction is the following: increasing
> gasoline consumption in the U.S. ( +9 MBPD ) should produce low levels
> of gasoline in U.S. storage within the next two months which should
> induce oil to at least $100/drum by next spring.

Oil Price Rises to Highest Level in 2009

Wed, 21 Oct 2009 15:55:46 -0400

$82 oil today. They are nuts.

California: Leveraged to Gasoline Prices and Nearing the Breaking Point

Sun, 18 Oct 2009 10:11:05 -0400

The investment banks have been leveraged 20-45 to 1 for years. Even before the interest rate got to zero.

The Republican Congress repealing Glass-Steagall and Phil Gramm's (R) deregulating is what got us in this mess. That is what gave the investment banks access to too much money.

On Oct 17 11:02 AM ron_paulite wrote:

> If the Fed didn't keep interest rate so low for so long, Goldman
> Sach and the other investment banks wouldn't be able to get so much
> cheap money to play with. Many investors would have been quite
> happy to leave a lot of their money in bank saving accounts rather
> than handing it over to Wall Street.
>
> Yes, the investment banks were also at fault. But that's the nature
> of banksters. It is their job and in their DNA to make money
> for themselves and their clients, whether going long or short - yes
> even at the expense of the national or even world economy. It
> is the job of the government to ensure they do not get out of hand
> and more importantly not to create the environment for excessive
> risk taking -- and zero interest rate encourages excessive risk taking.
> We need sound monetary policy.

Oil's Up and Down Ride

Sun, 18 Oct 2009 09:58:35 -0400

The Nov oil (CL) futures contract expires on Tuesday. The Nov options have already expired. You want the Dec or Jan contract.

The Jan CL options expire 12/16. A $75 put costs $3.57 or $3,570.
www2.barchart.com/optq...

On Oct 17 11:05 AM sethmcs wrote:

> I am itching to bet oil down from this level. Not sure the best
> way to do that. Buy puts on the November contract? Buy puts on
> USO or OIL? Could somebody more experienced in trading commodity
> options explain the ins and outs. I have 25+ years experience with
> equity options.

Oil Outpacing its Own ETF

Fri, 16 Oct 2009 22:32:09 -0400

Same thing happened to Gold puts in early Sep when Gold took off higher.

On Oct 16 01:33 PM ValueInvestor wrote:

> I've seen instances when all OJ futures traded up on the day and
> the calls all settled down. What the heck is going on? The CFTC
> should interview the settlement comity and ask whats going on.

California: Leveraged to Gasoline Prices and Nearing the Breaking Point

Fri, 16 Oct 2009 22:28:17 -0400

So correct. The Ron Paulites may want to blame the gov but it is the deregulated and unharnessed Goldman and others that will kill any recovery with their inflated oil prices.

On Oct 16 09:00 PM Gary A wrote:

> Goldman Sachs traders don't care about the price of oil, except to
> make money. Don't worry, they have shorted the rest of America, most
> likely, and are prepared for the meltdown.
>
> Until Goldman goes away, long oil and short reits may be the play.

Oil's Up and Down Ride

Fri, 16 Oct 2009 22:12:28 -0400

Excellent article!

Goldman needs booms and busts to make money. They don't care one bit about the 16.8% they run into the ground.

Inflation Trade Breaks Out Across the Board

Thu, 15 Oct 2009 13:20:14 -0400

You're dreaming if you think we are headed to $150 oil in the coming months. If oil goes to $150, we will be in the next depression.

In order to have inflation you have to have demand. Since people are still getting laid off and not getting raises, where is this demand going to come from? Foreclosures just hit a new all time high.

There may be inflation on Wall Street but there isn't any on Main Street.

Oil: Three Month Roll Breaks the Buck

Wed, 07 Oct 2009 15:55:22 -0400

Or is the market realizing that the recovery will be far slower than they thought, so they are running out of buyers for the back months?

It's not lack of supply, it's lack of demand.

Natural Gas Currently Offers the Best Near-Term Investment Opportunity

Tue, 06 Oct 2009 16:19:10 -0400

"Meanwhile, US natural gas production is plummeting due to the lack of drilling activity; producers need to see prices rally back over USD6 per MMBtu to start drilling and stem these production declines."

Are you sure about that? I don't see any sources for that price. But I did find this.

Producers in the Eagle Ford can break even when natural gas is priced as low as $3.88 per million British thermal units, the firm said, versus break-even prices of $5.18 in the Barnett, $3.74 in the Marcellus and $4.49 in the Haynesville.
www.chron.com/disp/sto...

Here's more data on consumption that is opposite of what you said.

Consumption will fall by 2.4 percent this year and remain flat in 2010, according to the Energy Information Administration

Why Did Natural Gas Spike?

Tue, 06 Oct 2009 15:51:03 -0400

NG went up because the extremely short hedge funds had to get out by buying. That's it.

Their net short went from 139,508 (9/01) to 93,812 (9/29). A decrease of 45,696. Plus they dropped almost 20,000 spreads which were probably short the front month.