Ron2008

Oil Rebounds on Supply and Inflation Data

I don't know why anyone bothers to look at and repeat API data.

Jim Rogers: Lessons from a Legend

You are definitely correct on this point!


On Dec 10 09:31 PM Kitegeezer wrote:

> I can tell you that Rogers recommendation to buy a farm is bunk.
> You would be far better off buying agricultural futures and living
> in a nice residence in a cosmopolitan city. The history of civilization
> is built on exploiting farmers, today is no different. How much bargaining
> power does a farmer have? - you tell me, he has to borrow money for
> inputs and his suppliers and customers are essentially the same people.
> Where I live in Brazil, they are exactly the same people.

After Failing to Cruise Past $80, Crude's Stuck Around $70

"The winter months are upon many parts of the US, which means demand for petroleum based products for home heating and transportation will be on the rise."

Demand for oil products for transportation in the winter decreases not increases. This easily offsets the increased heating oil demand.

World Series of Crude Oil: Winner Decides Winter Gasoline Prices

Looking at the new DCOT report, the Manged Money net long percentage of total open interest is at its' highest level for the the entire 3+ years of data given to us by the CFTC. Even higher than it was in 2008.

In the last 3 weeks the Managed Money group has gone from 60,002 net long to 130,712 net long in crude oil. And not surprisingly, the price went from 66.71 to 79.09 on the day of the reports.

Managed Money is clearly driving prices.

The Manged Money group also added a huge 21,605 net longs last week in Unleaded Gasoline. Highly unusual for this time of the year.

What is the Goldman and JPMorgan game plan? Looks like going long right now. But that doesn't make sense to me. There are very few fundamentals to back up this latest rise. They are on their own.

Oil's Up and Down Ride

The Nov oil (CL) futures contract expires on Tuesday. The Nov options have already expired. You want the Dec or Jan contract.

The Jan CL options expire 12/16. A $75 put costs $3.57 or $3,570.
www2.barchart.com/optq...

On Oct 17 11:05 AM sethmcs wrote:

> I am itching to bet oil down from this level. Not sure the best
> way to do that. Buy puts on the November contract? Buy puts on
> USO or OIL? Could somebody more experienced in trading commodity
> options explain the ins and outs. I have 25+ years experience with
> equity options.

Oil's Up and Down Ride

Excellent article!

Goldman needs booms and busts to make money. They don't care one bit about the 16.8% they run into the ground.

Oil: Three Month Roll Breaks the Buck

Or is the market realizing that the recovery will be far slower than they thought, so they are running out of buyers for the back months?

It's not lack of supply, it's lack of demand.

Why Pros Spread Oil and Gas

You didn't use the Jan contracts to do your chart? Then what good is it?


On Sep 29 10:00 AM Brad Zigler wrote:

> Historic figures arise from spot prices. To avoid the roll effect,
> though, retail traders ought to employ the January contracts in a
> "spread-and-hold" position. Forward contracts, too, qualify for a
> lower margin tier.

Why Pros Spread Oil and Gas

Then why do my numbers not match yours?

On Sep 1, 2005, Jan 2006 NG was 12.467. Jan 2006 Crude oil was 70.41.
On Dec 12,2005, Jan 2006 NG was 14.841. Jan 2006 Crude oil was 61.30.

That's a profit of $32,850. Your chart shows a less than $10,000 profit in the 2005 column.

For the Jan 2007 contracts on the 2006 bar on your chart you show about a $10,000 gain. I show a $19,610 loss.


On Sep 28 10:01 PM Brad Zigler wrote:

> January contracts for both commodities.

Why Pros Spread Oil and Gas

Brad, in your article "What (Or When) Is Up With Natural Gas?" you never said what contracts (month) you were using to play the long NG and short CL spread. Which ones did you use?

Oil Supply and Contango: Drawn Down

I bet those inventory numbers don't include the floating storage. Oil on tankers increased by about 30 million barrels in August and Sep.
scarcewhales.blogspot....
See chart at bottom of the article.

Floating oil has increased by 100 million barrels this year.

Noticed the Oil Backup?

Your facts are wrong.

The bill was actually signed into law by President Bill Clinton in 2000.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

Shouldn't the President that signed this legislation into law be held more responsible than one Senator?
==============

Uh no?

Funny how Republicans want to blame Clinton for signing a Republican sponsered bill that was passed with a veto proof majority.

Will Oil Traders Get Squeezed?

Futures traders provide a useful service as long as there aren't too many of them. The commercials should be the only ones moving the market. Speculators should only be providing liquidity.

But in 2008, it was all about speculators moving the market and everybody else, including commercials, getting screwed.

Crudomania Is Over

Michael, still holding out that it wasn't speculators that caused the huge runup? I thought most of you had given up that idea.

Speculators caused the big runup and caused oil to fall too far, too fast. It's that simple.

Why Oil Will Head Higher

Sean, what about the huge amount of inventory hanging over the market? 50 mil + floating in VLCC. Cushing is getting full. That plus weak demand for all of 09 will keep gasoline below 2.50.