Ron2008

The Market Wakes Up to Natural Gas

Horrible article.

The price was up 68 cents because the Dec contract went off Tuesday. The Jan contract was up only 39 cents. And as I write this the Jan contract is down 35 cents to almost where it was on last Tuesday.

Why Did Natural Gas Spike?

NG went up because the extremely short hedge funds had to get out by buying. That's it.

Their net short went from 139,508 (9/01) to 93,812 (9/29). A decrease of 45,696. Plus they dropped almost 20,000 spreads which were probably short the front month.

Out of (Natural) Gas

Below normal summer temps have little correlation to below normal winter temps, lately. From 1979 to 2008 we have had 8 below normal temp summers. The next winter was below normal twice and above normal six times.


On Oct 04 08:33 PM User 422955 wrote:

> to jerrydd: Where are semis going to tank up if they were to run
> on NG?
>
> To all you El Nin(y)o fans: I live in mid-MO. Our temps have been
> below average from early July to the present. People here (including
> me) expect a long, cold winter. I hope El Nino is correct and we
> turn out to be incorrect. Wait and see.

Out of (Natural) Gas

He is selling options on futures at NYMEX.


On Oct 03 10:29 PM anarchist wrote:

> GAZ is the only stock mentioned above and I can not find any options
> for it. If you look a NG or any of the gas-related stocks that I
> look at the premium for writing a call twice the price of the stock
> is a nickel or less, not much income there, maybe I don't understand
> what your doing.

Natural Gas, And Lots of It

The 5 year average has injections going 2 weeks into Nov. The first withdrawal from storage, based on the 5 year average is the 3rd week of Nov.

The 5 year average of injections from the report this week through the end of the injections is 374 (EIA data). That would put storage at 3.9 TCF.

Also, while the total number may have some room left, getting the NG to these storage facilities is the major problem.


On Sep 29 10:14 AM Jack Yetiv wrote:

> I've now been reading for months about how storage is going to fill
> up causing gas to be "dumped" on the market, but the math does not
> add up. Experts are projecting an injection of 50-60 BCF to be reported
> this Thurs, Oct. 1, which should put total amt of gas stored at 3.6
> TCF. I have read we have somewhere between 3.8 and 4.0 TCF of storage
> capacity, with the best number, I believe, being the midpoint, 3.9
> TCF. That means we can store 300 BCF more before storage is full
> (yes, I realize different storage locations may have differential
> fills, but I am talking across the US).
>
> If we continue storing an average of 55 BCF per week, on Oct. 29,
> we should be at about 3.8 TCF--just approaching full on the 3.8 TCF
> storage capacity number, and a bit under full if you believe the
> 3.9 TCF number, and even more under if you believe 4.0 TCF of storage
> capacity.
>
> Usually withdrawal from storage starts in the beginning of Nov.
> Therefore, unless I'm missing something, there won't be many days
> (if any) of "dumping" before withdrawal from storage begins.
>
> Jack Yetiv

What's Driving Natural Gas?

Futures for 2010 are all above $5.50. The drilling and production won't fall off as much as you think.

On Sep 18 01:52 PM Mmarrkk wrote:

> bradiop: your "evidence" that there is an increase in gas supply
> is somewhat short sighted. The additional supply comes from shale
> gas plays, plays where the wells exhibit a 80% decline ratio in the
> first year!! At sub $3/mcf, no one will drill these wells for long
> and when you stop drilling new wells, the old wells are declining
> quickly and production drop rapidly!