Ron2008

Investment in Commodities for the Coming Decade

As others said, DB does not stand for double.

Jim Rogers: Lessons from a Legend

You are definitely correct on this point!


On Dec 10 09:31 PM Kitegeezer wrote:

> I can tell you that Rogers recommendation to buy a farm is bunk.
> You would be far better off buying agricultural futures and living
> in a nice residence in a cosmopolitan city. The history of civilization
> is built on exploiting farmers, today is no different. How much bargaining
> power does a farmer have? - you tell me, he has to borrow money for
> inputs and his suppliers and customers are essentially the same people.
> Where I live in Brazil, they are exactly the same people.

Today in Commodities: Dust Starts to Settle

Melsen, chart out a NG futures chart. The prices peak in Nov and DROP through the winter. The last 5 winters have had higher prices in Nov than Feb.


On Dec 10 08:52 AM Melsen wrote:


> Regarding NG trading at higher prices in winter, it is only natural
> considering seasonal demand and drawdowns in inventories.

Today in Commodities: Crouching Tiger Hidden Commodity

You can't see that there is no demand for oil right now? That refineries are shutting down because of a lack of demand? That there are millions of barrels of oil and oil products in floating storage? That Cushing is getting very full?

Only funds think oil should be above $70 right now.

On Dec 10 05:30 PM rick12345 wrote:

> Oil has been dumped for no particular reason that I can see. While
> it should be at $80 - $85 and heading toward a $100 average, strangely
> it hasn't.

Oil's Up and Down Ride

The Nov oil (CL) futures contract expires on Tuesday. The Nov options have already expired. You want the Dec or Jan contract.

The Jan CL options expire 12/16. A $75 put costs $3.57 or $3,570.
www2.barchart.com/optq...

On Oct 17 11:05 AM sethmcs wrote:

> I am itching to bet oil down from this level. Not sure the best
> way to do that. Buy puts on the November contract? Buy puts on
> USO or OIL? Could somebody more experienced in trading commodity
> options explain the ins and outs. I have 25+ years experience with
> equity options.

Oil's Up and Down Ride

Excellent article!

Goldman needs booms and busts to make money. They don't care one bit about the 16.8% they run into the ground.

Look Who's Betting on Inflation

Good points, Anthony. India certainly isn't buying gold this year.

"Demand will fall more," Suresh Hundia, president of the Bombay Bullion Association, said. "Only those who are short will buy at these prices."

He estimated gold imports to fall to 350 tonnes in 2009 from 523 tonnes last year.
in.reuters.com/article...

According to Daman Prakash, a director with MNC Bullion, high prices have kept consumers away, with festival sales this year being 60%-65% below last year's sales.

In a glaring example of how high prices have hit demand, Chennai, a major market in southern India, is likely to import only around 1-2 tons of gold in the festival months of August to November compared with 6-7 tons last festival season. Average imports during the festival season has been 10-12 tons in previous years before poor demand hit imports since last year.

In the next three to four months, there are about 30 days Indians consider auspicious buying gold.

During the January-August period, India's gold imports fell to 91.6 metric tons compared with 261 tons in the same period last year, according to preliminary data from the Bombay Bullion Association.
online.wsj.com/article...

On Sep 14 09:17 AM Anthony B wrote:

> So, gold is going to decouple from other commodities? Possible short-term,
> but if gold is to remain that high commodity traders will move down
> to other commodities that are underperforming on their traditional
> price ratio to gold. At that point my previous comment is again
> important: "All this money is being pumped into commodities, but
> without wage inflation who is going to buy them. From Felix Salmon's
> article last week on depressing income stats: US median household
> income $51,295 in 1998, $50,303 in 2008."
>
> And then in response to China and India's growth, which I don't doubt
> can remain in upper single digits, I think Philip Davis has a good
> perspective, "China and India, which account for roughly 40% of the
> world’s population, consumed about $2.5 trillion of goods and services.
> The US, with 4.5% of the world’s population, has $10Tn of consumer
> spending. A 10% drop in US consumption would need to be offset by
> a 40% increase in China and India’s consumption - it’s not going
> to happen, folks! Just this weekend, in Member chat, our main topic
> was dead and dying malls (anecdotes by members) and poor retail sales.
> China can’t keep manufacturing goods if no one is buying them - Economics
> 101."

Gold Above $1,000: Indicative of an Imminent Market Fall?

$1200 gold in the next two weeks? Only if Barrick decides to keep buying futures to get out of their hedges at a stupidly high pace and cost themselves billions.

Stocks, Bonds, Commodities and Currencies: My Predictions for 2009

To have inflation you have to have demand. With unemployment soaring, demand will take a long time to show up.

The housing market will never have the demand of a few of years ago because subprime mortgages won't be handed out like candy again.

Get Out of Commodities - Barron's

"because it is based on supply/demand fundamentals"

Yea right. Gasoline inventories are at 15 year highs. Demand is dropping. So why are the prices at record highs?

There is no current shortage of oil. US inventories dropped because businesses followed a normal business practice of reducing inventory when prices go flying higher. Especially when oil futures went into backwardation last July. There is no incentive or reason for them right now for them to put inventories back where they were 2 years ago.

If OPEC dropped their quotas and prices stayed above $100, there would not be a drop more added to US inventories.