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  • Have The Robots Broken The Stock Market? [View article]
    Agreed.

    Raising the transaction cost of high frequency trading would curb the B.S. happening now. A simple and elegant fix. But powerful vested interests are making big bucks, so I don't see that happening soon.

    Only a catastrophe will spur action. Until then it's business as usual. The carnage of the 1911 shirtwaist factory finally brought new fire safety regulations into reality. A similar mechanism of complacency is at work here. The right thing will be done after exhausting all other alternatives.
    Aug 28, 2015. 05:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Have The Robots Broken The Stock Market? [View article]
    Thanks for your interesting article.

    The market gyrations this week were incredible and seemed to move in exactly the most unexpected way possible. Wall Street does employ a lot of "rocket scientists". How do they spend their days? Do those algorithms take account of human psychology to deliberately maximize confusion and pain to separate people from their money?

    The week was amazing with still one day to go. Down 1000 points Monday morning and zigzagging wildly throughout the day. Then up big Tuesday only to collapse at the last 30 minutes. Given the crazy price dynamics, is the subsequent rise on Wednesday and Thursday a bull trap? I guess we'll find out.

    I sat and watched in wonderment, paralyzed. One moment unwilling to catch a falling knife. The next moment seeing a train quickly leave the station, but not wanting to give chase. Then watching that same train reverse itself, crushing anyone who followed it. I was tempted several times, but did nothing. The stock market was behaving like a meat grinder.

    But I'd bet the folks who own the robots made a fair amount of money. Do they have any incentive to fix this? Probably not. The robot dudes win and the people who got spooked or run over by the reversals lost. Seems like the stock market has become a technologically augmented game, where the transfer of wealth from ordinary humans to the humans who own robots becomes the norm.
    Aug 28, 2015. 04:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does AMD Have A Viable Server Strategy? [View article]
    @gofx

    I hear you. What's happening at AMD is typical and compares with executive compensation at other companies. The executive money grab is real, but that doesn't make it right.

    Seems that above a certain pay grade, compensation and performance are no longer tightly correlated, and failing up becomes a career path.
    Aug 14, 2015. 03:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does AMD Have A Viable Server Strategy? [View article]
    I've always believed Rasgon is a Bernstein tool. As such, I've never really liked him. No idea about his opinion on price action, but his point about more stock rewards for management seems better than usual.

    Su and Norrod were only recently hired and should abide by the deals they made. Kumar and Papermaster both already received a retention bonus in January. Given the performance of AMD, none of them deserve another drink from the well. That additional stock reward just seems like management is greedy to me.

    Most folks work hard and often have little to show for it. AMD management gets compensated lavishly regardless of results.
    Aug 13, 2015. 02:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Does AMD Have A Viable Server Strategy? [View article]
    I find myself in the uncomfortable and disturbing position of having to agree with Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon. What strange times we live in.

    -- http://yhoo.it/1UDc0mn
    Aug 13, 2015. 12:09 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does AMD Have A Viable Server Strategy? [View article]
    @RandSec

    Appreciate your perspective and detailed information. AMD can't afford to trudge through the desert for 3 years only to find that the oasis was actually just a mirage.

    Agree that the new packaging should help AMD with rapid customization and shorten their semi-custom development cycle.
    Aug 12, 2015. 02:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FuelCell Energy Has Become A Speculative Stock [View article]
    Thanks for the link to the presentation. It was informative, but not much different than previous ones given by FCEL. Their success ultimately hinges on improving sales.

    As noted in my previous comments, POSCO does have a vested interest in FCEL. They want to maintain North American production capacity to diversify sourcing. Large customers often prefer that a product can be obtained regardless of geographic risk. Spreading production between Asia, North America, and Europe helps in this regard.

    Perhaps POSCO will save the day with a better sales plan than the one demonstrated by FCEL. Increased sales will improve economy of scale and make FCEL more competitive. It could become a virtuous circle. So far, nobody in management has elucidated a clear path forward.

    Only time will tell.
    Aug 11, 2015. 06:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FuelCell Energy Has Become A Speculative Stock [View article]
    Much of FCEL's production revenue currently comes from POSCO orders in backlog. That revenue is occasionally supplemented by additional demand from POSCO, like the 5.6MW gift yesterday. POSCO is vital for FCEL.

    Unless FCEL can boost annual domestic sales to roughly 70MW, the burden falls on POSCO to fill any sales gap. That means POSCO needs to generate sales sufficient to fill their own newly created production capacity, plus whatever domestic shortfall that FCEL has.

    Otherwise FCEL's revenues will drop as orders previously filled by FCEL move across the Pacific to POSCO's Korean manufacturing facility. FCEL will still get compensated with royalties, but this shift in production would lower FCEL's revenue and need for production capacity.

    In a worst case scenario, FCEL's revenue could wither as POSCO shifts production to their own facility. The economy of scale won't happen if sales can't match the combined production capacity. Let's hope POSCO has an excellent sales plan for both facilities, because apparently FCEL doesn't.

    If FCEL transitions from revenues to royalties and domestic sales don't improve, they might as well close up shop. A clerk can pick up and deposit the quarterly royalty check from a P.O. box. Better yet, just use electronic fund transfer and they'll only need an accountant to process the quarterly statements. No domestic manufacturing facility needed. FCEL would become a hollow shell.

    On a brighter note, will POSCO boost sales sufficiently to support FCEL production? That's not a bad plan. But if true, then FCEL management should just say so. Why string the shareholders along with all the uncertainty prevailing currently?
    Aug 11, 2015. 05:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FuelCell Energy Has Become A Speculative Stock [View article]
    Why the stock was up 20% yesterday.

    -- http://bit.ly/1N627eU

    But the article notes that boosting production capacity won't help if sales don't improve significantly.
    Aug 11, 2015. 04:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FuelCell Energy Has Become A Speculative Stock [View article]
    Some FCEL related news regarding POSCO:

    -- http://bit.ly/1UAcjyn

    The 5.6MW supplemental order is better than a stick in the eye, but it is still not clear what happens when POSCO begins full production at their manufacturing facility. Will revenue that FCEL gets from POSCO drop, to be replaced by royalty payments?
    Aug 11, 2015. 04:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does AMD Have A Viable Server Strategy? [View article]
    Z-en (d) ?
    Aug 11, 2015. 03:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does AMD Have A Viable Server Strategy? [View article]
    Which way the comparable cost advantage swings has everything to do with specifics on process yield versus cost of multi-chip packaging. As investors looking in from the outside, it might be difficult to determine a closely guarded competitive secret like actual process yield or packaging cost. Revenue, margins and earnings might be the only clues available to indirectly answer the question of comparative cost and competitive advantage. Will the new packaging help their top and bottom lines?

    It is conceivable that multi-chip packaging might offer other qualitative advantages. Like you pointed out in an earlier post, chips of various functionality made from differing processes and nodes could be tightly combined in ways previously not possible.

    The flexibility and performance might trump other considerations for certain applications and open up new markets.
    Aug 11, 2015. 02:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Does AMD Have A Viable Server Strategy? [View article]
    @anubis44

    "That's what we're talking about in this forum right now: the supporting infrastucture for Zen."

    Interesting point. I'm not really qualified to shed much light on the technical aspects of this discussion, but I do have some questions.

    With K12 delayed until 2017, that left a void in AMD's server strategy. It seems the scope of Zen has broadened to fill that void and now include servers. Wasn't Zen originally targeted more to the PC business?

    Zen was already quite far along in the design phase when the new server strategy was revealed. As an x86 chip, Zen will compete directly with INTC rather than indirectly as K12 was going to do via ARM. Will Zen have the horsepower to compete effectively in the server market?

    I believe a lot is now riding on Zen, with servers and PC in the mix. The discussion here is important, as it might help reveal if Zen is up to the task. I'm concerned that Zen's original design targeting the PC business might limit its competitiveness in a server environment.

    If Zen is delayed or found deficient, the result would be devastating to AMD and its shareholders.
    Aug 10, 2015. 09:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Does AMD Have A Viable Server Strategy? [View article]
    "If AMD gets bought out, the stock will move by 25% to 75% in a short period of time."

    Putting money on AMD is gambling, not investing. Hoping for a takeover is buying a lotto ticket. Very risky. Don't put down any more cash than you can afford to lose.

    The first half of 2015 has been lousy. Will the second half be good enough to wipe the slate clean? Analysts will punish AMD for poor annual numbers. Declining revenues and earnings will affect AMD's credit rating.

    At best 2015 will be a lackluster year. Then shareholders must endure another typical weak first half in 2016 before Zen arrives. It's going to be a rough ride.
    Aug 10, 2015. 06:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FuelCell Energy Has Become A Speculative Stock [View article]
    @speculative

    Cool. Let's hope FCEL can give some sign of life. I'm sure many here would be happy to double or triple their money on the way up. For now, I just don't see it happening.

    Have a great weekend.
    Aug 9, 2015. 03:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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