Arnold Reinhold

Apple Remains Overvalued, Despite Its Gadget Glory

From Apple's latest 10K:

Accounts payable Sept 26, 2009: $ 5,601, Sept 27, 2008: $ 5,520

Given how much Apple's business has grown in the last 12 months, they must be paying more promptly, not less.

(am long on aapl)

Apple Is Still a Great Investment, Right? Not for Value Investors

More upside potential? There are 4 billion cellphones in the world. Even if the average pre-subsidy selling price of a smart phone comes down to $250, that's a potential one trillion dollar market. And Apple has shifted the terms of competition in the smart phone market to software, where it has commanding strength.

I Quit the iPhone

Years ago friends introduced me to this great auto mechanic. He did excellent work, charged low prices and if he spent hours on your car only to find the problem was a simple one he should have spotted sooner, he'd just charge for the time he should have spent. He was great.Only problem was he went out of business. The most important thing a company can do for its loyal customers is to stay in business. Here's a hint for iPhone developers, big and small, if you have a great idea for an app that just happens to undermine Apple or ATT's business model, don't waste your time writing it.

Jobs: Catch the App Store if You Can

It's common for one company to partner with another in the hope the partnership will bring them customers. It's less common for such relationships to actually produce the expected flow of new business. Apple has brought ATT a ton of new customers. It's up to ATT to find ways of building loyalty in those new customers. Roll over minutes are one example where ATT is doing something in that direction. But they need to do much more to keep iPhone customers when the Apple exclusivity ends.

For Apple, Upside Remains

I agree with the upside, but I don't agree that Apple can prosper on execution alone. Technology keeps improving and Apple must continue to deliver innovative products that those improvements make possible if it wants to stay out of the commodity end of the market. Should Jobs be unable to continue, they better show they have leadership that can perfect and bring to market the innovation their talented staff develops.

Canaccord: Three New iPhones Expected in 2009

Don't forget all those iPhone gift boxes Apple sold in December. It's hard to give an iPhone to someone because they have to sign up for the data plan in person, so Apple made up gift boxes that had cards inside that the recipient can exchange for the phone itself. Apple sold a lot of these but only those converted to phones in the week after Christmas would show up in the last quarter's sales numbers.

Five Apple Predictions for 2009

I'd like to see Apple deploy a secure, IPv6, Snow Leopard only, version of the Internet, maybe using its Apple Stores as points of presence. It would be the only thing likely to work after a major cyberattack.

What's Happening at Apple: Steve Jobs

There's "no longer a ready-made pulpit for Steve Jobs"??? Try the World Wide Developers Conference and Apple Events, for starters. MacWorld had already declined to an iPod accessories fair. More people watch the keynotes online than can fit into that auditorium. After this latest drama, any time Jobs wants to speak, he'll have an even bigger audience.

$1.2 Billion in iPhone Apps? Not Likely.

The $10 in sales per iPhone user per year may be a gross underestimate. Yes, there will be a lot of free software, but Apple's easy distribution mechanism and modest 30% cut will convince a lot of independent developers to try charging for their efforts. And the $9.99 price point for a new game or handy app is a very easy impulse purchase.

Will Apple Be Dragged Kicking and Screaming to the Business Market?

Business may not get what it wants from Apple, but it may just get what it needs.

New BlackBerry, New Fund: Is RIM's Moat Wide Enough?

The real question is what phones will primarily be used for in the future:generating text or viewing information. The RIM, with its mechanical keyboard is better for the former, the iPhone with its large screen and touch interface is better for the latter, whether it entertainment or business data. Third parties will provide miniature Bluetooth keyboards for iPhone users who must have one. And when Apple is ready to administer the coup de grâce, it can simply introduce a model with a fold out/slide out keyboard.

Apple Takes iPhone Corporate at SDK Event

I think the big news here, besides all the technical details, is that Apple listened to all the pre-announcement buzz and managed to come up with positive answers to almost every concern expressed. The iPhone and iPod touch are the next great platform.

Apple's "Anywhere" iPhone Has Far From Peaked

Another point people miss is that even at $600, the price of an iPhone is a small compared to the cost of phone/data service: $2500 or more over three years. So if Apple can make using that service a much better experience, (and the iPhone's extraordinary customer satisfaction ratings say that it has) it can easily command those prices.