Al Fin

Confirmatory Bias and Oil Investing

Excellent presentation. Of course, confirmatory bias operates both on oil bulls and oil bears. Everyone is susceptible.

I must say that the "peak oil" enthusiasts do have a one-track mind. Whether they are not intelligent enough to weigh more than one variable (cause) at a time, or whether their beliefs are simply too strong to allow a complex mental representation of the reality, they seem to be mired in simplisme.