ACapitalist's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/158823/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/81730-buy-opportunities-like-these-do-not-come-along-very-often?source=feed#comment-187922 187922 Thanks for the local color. I will keep my eye on this over the next few months.]]> Wed, 18 Jun 2008 15:54:30 -0400 Thanks for the local color. I will keep my eye on this over the next few months.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81730-buy-opportunities-like-these-do-not-come-along-very-often?source=feed#comment-187892 187892 I was very interested in CTBK, read their 10q & K and could not find where their construction exposure is located. I called them and they told me that all of their exposure was local, nothing out of Washington and most in a couple of counties where they are located. I only have a general idea of what is going on in the Washington real estate market, but from what I read it is still one of the best markets in the country with little or no drop in prices due to the strength of tech and aerospace industries. Therefore it would seem that their construction book would be better than most banks in other regions? However, their nonperforming loans have been going up quite rapidly over the past 3qs. On the positive side, they have 17+% capital and a 6% net interest margin. Not many banks like that sell for 80% of book value. Any other thoughts or perspectives on the Washington market?
Thanks
]]> Wed, 18 Jun 2008 15:12:29 -0400 I was very interested in CTBK, read their 10q & K and could not find where their construction exposure is located. I called them and they told me that all of their exposure was local, nothing out of Washington and most in a couple of counties where they are located. I only have a general idea of what is going on in the Washington real estate market, but from what I read it is still one of the best markets in the country with little or no drop in prices due to the strength of tech and aerospace industries. Therefore it would seem that their construction book would be better than most banks in other regions? However, their nonperforming loans have been going up quite rapidly over the past 3qs. On the positive side, they have 17+% capital and a 6% net interest margin. Not many banks like that sell for 80% of book value. Any other thoughts or perspectives on the Washington market?
Thanks
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81730-buy-opportunities-like-these-do-not-come-along-very-often?source=feed#comment-187809 187809 An investment in any of the Can Trusts is a bet on continued high oil/gas prices. If you are convinced that prices will stay high, you will have made a good investment. If prices drop, you probably will not. Why will a drop in energy prices result in a fall in the price of these stocks (as well as Penn)? The dividends include a return of capital and they do not retain enough cash to sustain production on a flat energy price basis. The trusts have to keep issuing more shares to buy more producing properties to keep their production growing or even flat. What investors should always look at with these stocks is the production and cash flow per share. In the near term, there is nothing to worry about as the numbers you present suggest. In the longer term it’s all about the price of Oil and gas. I am not saying you should not buy Penn. I may just do so.
]]> Wed, 18 Jun 2008 13:15:49 -0400 An investment in any of the Can Trusts is a bet on continued high oil/gas prices. If you are convinced that prices will stay high, you will have made a good investment. If prices drop, you probably will not. Why will a drop in energy prices result in a fall in the price of these stocks (as well as Penn)? The dividends include a return of capital and they do not retain enough cash to sustain production on a flat energy price basis. The trusts have to keep issuing more shares to buy more producing properties to keep their production growing or even flat. What investors should always look at with these stocks is the production and cash flow per share. In the near term, there is nothing to worry about as the numbers you present suggest. In the longer term it’s all about the price of Oil and gas. I am not saying you should not buy Penn. I may just do so.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81255-interoil-uncertainty-fading?source=feed#comment-187798 187798 A word to the wise in investing, pay more attention to those that oppose your viewpoint rather than making personal attracts on them. An investment in any company should be dispassionate.
]]> Wed, 18 Jun 2008 12:55:00 -0400 A word to the wise in investing, pay more attention to those that oppose your viewpoint rather than making personal attracts on them. An investment in any company should be dispassionate.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81255-interoil-uncertainty-fading?source=feed#comment-187342 187342 Tue, 17 Jun 2008 18:18:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81612-precision-castparts-an-abandoned-growth-story-part-i?source=feed#comment-187335 187335 Tue, 17 Jun 2008 17:53:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81676-economics-of-oil-futures-trading-part-ii?source=feed#comment-187330 187330 Muddling is right, if they, the index fund investors start exiting the market in droves, we might see the reverse happen with prices. What will happen if congress forces the federal overseers to limit the index fund buyers? I do not see congress being smart enough to figure this out so nothing will probably happen and this bubble will reach a natural popping point at some higher price.
]]> Tue, 17 Jun 2008 17:44:37 -0400 Muddling is right, if they, the index fund investors start exiting the market in droves, we might see the reverse happen with prices. What will happen if congress forces the federal overseers to limit the index fund buyers? I do not see congress being smart enough to figure this out so nothing will probably happen and this bubble will reach a natural popping point at some higher price.
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