SPXplus10

In Madoff We Trust

On the other hand... what is an alternative (to the implicit pyramiding of SS)?

Consider: In a closed system where the costs can be (very roughly) divided into "maintenance of the retired class" and costs of the "safety net" for the working age class, it is not irrational to rely on the (presumably inflating) tax payments of the (presumably enlarging) working class to support the first class of costs.

The system fails only If the subsequent generation does not enlarge or if the tax payments do not inflate. (Even then, there are "automatic stabilizers: a reduced population in the subsequent generation reduces the costs of the second class of costs, ceteris paribus.) The bigger/more immediate flaw may result from the extended lifespans and the health care costs that are concentrated in that "extended" period.

Unfortunately, the combination of the baby boomer bubble running into the current spate of deflation tests (to the max) the robustness of the assumptions. (Throw in the hyperbolic health care cost increases, and the current strain on the system is very apparent.)

But over a long horizon, these "anomalous" periods should be exceptions - not the rule - and reliance on a printing press (to counter deflationary effects) may not be so sinful as implied.

Alternatives approach? One that offers as much of a "net net" benefit over 50 - 100 year horizons?

I hate to rely on the economist's paradox, but isn't a lot like the proverbial quarter on the sidewalk? (If there was a better alternative, it would be topic A of everyone's discussion right now.)

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Good stuff! The pithy comments make chart poring that much less dreadful (no matter how essential). Hope to see more from David.

Is One Automaker Default Almost a Sure Thing?

I don't think User 22758 has fully considered what the author is saying.

Bad money after good leads to MORE, not LESS pain than allowing a bankruptcy court to consider the actual equities in a reorg. The company that can emerge from bankruptcy is the one that deserves to emerge; if it is much much smaller, or tightly focused on where it can actually compete successfully, how is that not a better outcome than where taxpayer dollars are used to continue to prop up a business plan and model that has simply outlived its used by date?

I would prefer that at least there be some honesty as to the use of the taxpayer funds: let the failing carmaker fail, and provide the discontinued workers (and pensioners) some direct relief. But giving the keys back to the same guys who got you there is the equivalent of handing the keys to the drunk driver who has just run a school bus off the road and and saying "please drive carefully ... this time".

Are we entering a new paradigm where workers actually have to think about whether they are being overpaid for the value they are adding (instead of worrying about how to justify more overtime, and more days off? Man, we entered it a while back - check out Bangalore, Shanghai, Korea etc. The fat and slow will lose. Our country has moved into stretch pants and recliner rockers. I'm all for being socially responsible (and giving direct benefits to those who need them) simply as a cost of civilized society (no moral judgments required). But enabling the corruption and waste in financial leadership under the guise of "protecting the workers' pensions" helps nothing, and doubles the bill when it comes.

Wachovia CEO's Insider Buying Is Another Indication of a Bottom

the author is misleading us on "timing" the entry by presenting a logical fallacy: his premise and conclusion can't be both true. If it is the case that there will be a lower buying opportunity "in a few days" once the "short covering diminishes" and the longs lock in their profits, then as a short, it makes sense NOT to cover right now, but to wait for those "magical few days" and cover (if one is inclined) when the longs are profit-taking. But the longs are, by definition, not "profit-taking" until the short covering diminishes... Either the short-covering is diminishing now (at this price, since the shorts who haven't yet covered will wait for "the few days", or the short covering will continue unabated, in which case, now is as good a time to buy as any.

Shorts are not required to cover today or tomorrow or ever (subject to available margin)(the SEC regulation enforcement may inhibit new shorts, but for existing shorts I don't think there is any new urgency).

If the shorts are agreeing with this recommendation, the "later" buying opportunity does not occur.

As for the predictive value of insider buying, consider the "wisdom" of all the ex-CEOs on wall street. Did Jimmy Cayne have knowledge "better than anyone"? For real evidence, it might be interesting to see how many "insiders" were selling Bear stock the week before the demise, and how many were buyers on that Monday ($2 offer). My guess is that those that weren't locked out - and this article fails to acknowledge that any insider who actually does have "inside" knowledge is prohibited from buying shares in the company during the "hands off" period - were no better at predicting the future price of Bear than the average investor.

The Two Best Investment Rules for Volatile Markets

Spot on. I worked at a rating agency. Being the nail leads to getting hammered... out the door, in my case! (The feeling of "good riddance to bad rubbish" was mutual, but I rest my case on the events in 2008.)

The difficulty of finding the "100% correct all the time" advisor is equal to finding the holy grail... there is no such person. Even Doug Kass (a conservative bear at TSCM), who has been right a very good number of times in the past 12 months, blew it on the financials this year - he has been calling for going long for way too long.

I think the best thing is to follow your rules and watch the market from a bit of distance: try to avoid the "minute" charts, or at least compare them to the perspective of the day and YTD charts. The street wants you to overtrade, when the reality is, anyone who bought SDS on January 1 and went to the beach (in the southern hemisphere first, and now here in the north...) would be laughing their way to the bank, pushing a wheelbarrow.

Why I've Decided to Raise Some Cash for March

Whoops! Looks like better luck next month!