Network Effect

45 Comments

    • Research in Motion's Storm: Why It Matters [view article]
      couldn't agree with your final statement. this is make or break for rimm. if they can't show traction on these new product lines, RIMM will need to be bought to survive. my guess is that iPhone is going to lay waste to any competition like the iPod - it's the ecosystem that is the moat around the iPhone, like iTunes around the iPod. but like with iTunes, it is going to be very difficult for anyone to gain any traction because the iPhone and the AppStore already exist and have a huge head start. RIMM will be bought by MSFT, GOOG or HP within 6-18 months. and even then, the combination of the two wont be able to compete with Apple. this game is over already. Apple has just won a very, very big revenue stream of the future. next industry to go down ... video games. maybe this Xmas. again, the ecosystem will prevail. and Nintendo, Sony et al will be playing catch up to an rapidly growing ecosystem like with iTunes and AppStore. Oct 09 09:26 AM
    • Google Phone: "Dream Phone" Might Be a Little Strong [view article]
      folks, take a cue from the Kindle hype, the Bold hype, and all the other iPhone Killers hype, if you don't see numbers, they're not selling. Android will be thrown into the war chest of things that Google tries and fails at because they think they can do anything. their hubris is their biggest achilles heel. but that's not just Google. all the titans failed when they got too big, because they were no longer nimble and they had been drinking their own KoolAid too long. Oct 05 11:33 AM
    • Google's G1: A Paradigm Shift in Mobile Phones [view article]
      you are drinking too much of that google KoolAid buddy. the game you are talking about is more than likely going to be won by Apple. you are right, this is the future. but google will not win, and all signs point to that apple will. pretty soon, large companies are going to start partnering up to beat Apple because they are having so much success with the AppStore and all of its hardware. it will steamroll industries. i think EBAY, with Skype and PayPal, is ripe for the picking because it's cheap and they have all the tools for a mobile commerce platform. and so is RIMM because their management is top notch and they already have the base of users in the mobile space. one of these companies will be bought out in the next 1-2 years. Sep 23 05:23 PM
    • Now What for Apple Investors? [view article]
      i agree with you guys, just because someone likes a company doesn't mean they have to like the stock. however, Jared, there were lines out the door for at least a month after the iPhone launch. Mac sales are trending at pace or better than expected. Ipods are way above expectations. Apple clearly has not been affected as much as most companies by this slowdown. so don't sit there and say that a slowing consumer is the reason Apple is being sold. that is a lot of crap and you know it. it's just the reason that people say they are selling it to scare the weak out of the market while they short it. the underlying fundamentals of this company are stronger than ever. it's being sold because it's easy money for the pros, simple as that. Sep 16 09:34 AM
    • Apple: Leading the Way to a Total Tech Breakdown [view article]
      people should just give up on apple. Sep 15 07:17 AM
    • eBay Is a Losing Bid - Barron's [view article]
      Something tells me Marty knows what he is talking about from experience. He nailed it - the problem is the team. They don't understand eBay. The are doing all the things that eBay's competitors used to do in the early days of eBay (latest example is the Buy.com deal - absolute insanity for anyone who knows anything about marketplace economics). All those competitors failed doing those types of deals, and eBay is failing now as well. At some point, they will stem the losses, but it will never successfully turn around until they reinvigorate a culture of innovation inside the company and get a more entrepreneurial leader rather than an consultant. eBay is more Silicon Valley, and less Proctor & Gamble. They have to re-engage the communities in a face-to-face conversation again. Re-humanize the company, and people will eventually believe again. eBay's reputation is pretty badly beaten, and some people will never come back no matter what. However, this ship can be turned around. They just need the right people, and right strategies to do it. If they keep signing deals with the Buy.com's of the world, however, they will never come back. Sep 14 10:05 AM
    • No New Kindles for 2008; Upcoming Models May Have Better Screens [view article]
      Everything from Amazon screams that they are embarrassed about how poorly the Kindle is doing. This was a tremendously hyped device. Everyone wants to know how it is doing - and they are not releasing numbers. They are saying that they won't release a new version until next year at the earliest. They are saying that analysts predictions for this device are way out of whack. I can guarantee that they just want people to stop talking about it and for this PR nightmare to go away.

      The Kindle is a great idea on paper. But the reality is that people don't want another electronic device to carry around just to read a book, magazine, or blog. Yes, there are far greater opportunities than this for the Kindle IF they can get people to buy it. They can develop an iTunes type platform for the Kindle once they have a user base. But, the hook to get people to buy it in the first place (books, mags, and blogs) isn't enough to move the masses into action and buy it. Getting a book, magazine or blog digitally is an ancillary benefit to your cell phone or laptop. It is not enough of a standalone reason to buy an entire new electronic device.       Sep 01 01:11 PM
    • Amazon Confirms Student Version of Kindle [view article]
      I have got to admit, all the signs are pointing to this thing not selling. Something tells me that if the numbers were good, they would be shouting its successes from the mountaintops to generate buzz. I guess it's possible they are just trying to fly below the radar for competitive reasons, but my gut tells me that's not the case. This might be another one of those great on paper ideas, but in reality the masses don't buy it. But then again, these things sometimes build over time so who knows. It just doesn't seem to be coming out of the blocks too quick. Aug 25 03:14 PM
    • eBay: The Next 4 Months [view article]
      Everyone keeps talking about eBay spinning off PayPal & Skype - these are their best businesses and the future of the company. Why would they spin them off? Although I agree with your assessment of management. It doesn't appear they understand the vision of the company and its potential. Aug 24 10:42 AM
    • How Apple Stock Should Be Valued: P/FCF [view article]
      Andy, great article. nice to see someone in the media is actually focusing on this stuff and not the petty noise that moves the market in the short term. Aug 15 07:26 AM
    • Taking a Bite from SIRI's Apple Connection Enthusiasm [view article]
      Hmmm, interesting perspective. You could be right, but that's not what Sony said for monkey ball. Didn't they make $3+M in the 1st 20 days? And doesn't that go straight to the bottom line for Sony since it's a download? iPhone will be a massive profit generator for an entire ecosystem of businesses because the transaction is digital in nature and does not incur many variable costs. Sellers are flocking to the iPhone because anticipated sales and margins are off the charts. Generating sales and profits these days is hard for many businesses in this economy, and the iPhone represents a massively growing distribution network so it taps you into a huge, and growing customer base. The whole key is that this is a network that they are building, the phone, or hardware, is just the gateway; we have all seen from Ma Bell, Microsoft, eBay, PayPal, Google etc etc etc that the first to scale in this business model owns the space. With 60 million downloads in the 1st 30 days, Apple is on pace to scale significantly. And with lines out the door at Apple and AT&T stores waiting to reserve a phone 7-10 days later one month after the phone has launched, my guess is that number is growing along with the number of customers on the network. Apple will own the next generation platform, mobile commerce and social networking, because they will sell the hardware that is the gateway to the ecosystem, and the software that runs behind the network. Aug 15 06:35 AM
    • Is Apple a Better Stock Than Google? [view article]
      Apple's historical earnings have nothing to do with their future value. That's the point - people realize that the iPhone is yet another monster revenue and profit generator for Apple that is another inflection point in the companies growth. The trend line is not straight, it is turning upwards. With Google, it's the opposite. This is why Apple is worth more, a better company, a better business model, just about a better everything than Google. Google is turning out to be the one trick pony that many feared, and the metrics in that stellar business are headed in the wrong direction. Average cost per click should drop quite a bit over the next couple years. Click through rates should drop. There are chinks in their armor. Apple is just the opposite - they are firing on unprecedented cylindars. Aug 14 09:30 AM
    • Apple's Interesting Challenge with Its Best Buy Deal [view article]
      you're reaching, kevin. it is hard to believe you actually believe this - it reads more like you're not an Apple lover and are searching for something to grab onto. Aug 14 09:16 AM
    • Apple: Are Investors Overlooking Cash Earnings? [view article]
      Did Jobs piss off Jim Cramer or something? Jul 30 06:42 PM
    • Apple Math: Market Share over Margins [view article]
      My sense is that big money saw an opportunity to short main street in a very liquid stock. The consumer is a huge Apple fan, and us lemmings are buying their stock. Big Money sells into this and tries to break the backs of everyone and when their back is broken, they buy it back from them at a really low price. I think the problem is that not a lot of main street is selling this time and they can't buy it back at a low enough price to make the trade work as a whole (obviously many people made money shorting apple recently). Rumors were started, people tried to say that RIMM wasn't being affected, and the media machine was doing it's best to get people to give up. I think what happened is that people didn't give up. So what I think is going on now is the calm before the storm - Apple will take off like a rocket when they announce China, or a new product line, etc. No one bought the story and shorts are going to cover and there aren't going to be a lot people selling at these levels. RIMM's delaying the launch of their phone, GRMN is delaying theirs once that kind of news comes out. Big money is now trying to get people to buy into the PALM Centro story ... they are running out of straws to grasp at. Jul 30 09:34 AM
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