Network Effect

Is Microsoft Ready to Throw in the Towel on Zune?

LG Display said in a filing to the Korea Exchange that it would receive a $500 million advance from Apple during the month of january for a deal to buy LCD panels.

... do people still think Jobs really sees Apple TV as a hobby or is that starting to look more like a smoke screen? Just like the App Store wasn't going to be a profitable part of the iPhone business, right?

Microsoft and eBay Team Up: Desperate or Brilliant?

eBay is becoming / building a search engine. Sellers/advertisers will someday be charged click through fees rather than listing fees or FV Fees and eBay will potentially increase its PayPal cut a little bit to make up for the difference. They will also split up auction listings from fixed price listings somehow and the "new eBay" will be seperated from the "old eBay" to allow the "old eBay" to thrive again. eBay (and its stock) will rise again, it just may take a while. These things that they are doing are starting to work, and they are starting to actually repair the damage that has been done so that many will be able to succeed again. The whole key to eBay is that many can succeed, not how many sales they can produce for a small number of sellers. And I think they are starting to realize this.

Could eBay Be a Microsoft Takeover Target?

@ Deep Value - the value of Microsoft technology does not lie in the technology itself. it lies in the network around it. Microsoft has had inferior technology for years, but everyone continues to use it because everyone continues to use it. i realize that there may be free technology and better technology out there, but this has nothing to do with Microsoft's stranglehold on its market. It has to do with the network effect and it is almost impossible to unravel. Additionally, regarding eBay's eyeballs, I think you have been misinformed - there are more searches are done on eBay every day than on Google. And everyone searching on eBay is actually thinking about buying something so the value of their customer base is far greater than the value of a search engine's customer base. Additionally, most "customers" who use search engines are not actually customers of the search engine. Search engines are open networks which many believe is superior. however, I disagree. I think the walled garden will prevail in this race because processing transactions is a far superior business model to generating leads. This is why Google is trying to do things like Google Wallet and Google Base. They are trying to process transactions rather than generate leads because the vast majority of people who went and sold on Google are starting to go away because 90% of all clicks are on the top two spots. So, if you are not one of those two spots, it has minimal value to any individual merchant. So, as a result, they are all starting to go away. Ask any search engine marketer about it and they will tell you it is getting harder and harder to get clicks out of Google because they are all going to a smaller and smaller % of the merchant base.

Microsoft buying eBay never made sense before because eBay had a culture of innovation inside the company and Microsoft would have killed it. However, that culture of innovation is gone at eBay, and therefore an acquisition by Microsoft makes a lot of sense now. I just don't think the gov't would allow it.

Sell-Side Color on the Collapsed Microsoft/Yahoo Deal

everyone's talking about Jerry Yang. i'm not saying they shouldn't since the buck stops with him. But noone is talking about Sue Decker. This turn around is all about execution and focus. When it comes to both, I put Decker up there with the tops in the Valley. I think she can pull this off as long as she is in charge. The minute she leaves, all bets are off.

If Yahoo goes it alone, they also have to reignite a culture of innovation inside the company. All the old companies that are struggling (eBay, Yahoo, AOL, etc.) are all lacking a fire inside the company that once existed. All the ones that are doing well (Amazon, Google, Apple, etc), even the old ones, have maintained or reignited a vibrant culture inside the company. I'll bet people are tired inside Yahoo. The hectic work pace of the Valley runs people down, and it's difficult to keep running when your stock languishes. Yahoo needs to put its money where its mouth is and start buying up shares at the low price, and they need to achieve success early on. If this thing loses any steam at all with hiccups in execution, it will never get off the ground.

Microsoft's Bid for Yahoo: My Signal To Finally Buy Google

If 90+% of operating systems are MSFT, how do you propose Google will generate enough critical mass to overcome the massive value of interoperability generated by MSFT's network of users? MSFT has been generating inferior technology for years. The value does not lie in the technology. The value lies in the network. Since MSFT owns the current network, converting them to an online service will be relatively easy, just like every past upgrade to the operating system. Google doesn't have a network, and they will be competing against one of the largest networks in the world. Google Apps may be a superior technology, and Google may be a great company, but they'll just be in a long line of superior technologies to MSFT and MSFT will continue to win because they own the network. Just look at Google Base and Google Wallet. They are also potentially superior technology to eBay and PayPal. However, they are trying to compete against an established network with massive inter-operability. And how are Google Base and Google Wallet doing? Again, the value is in the network, not the technology.