leh

Second Worst Month For Commodities Ever

A 10% one month haircut on stocks that have vaulted 100-200% over the past year or two--so what? Why do these routine corrections always have to be sold as
"end of the earth" events (or at least with headlines to that effect) when it seems obvious it's just a quick violent round of routine profit-taking? Sorry, I don't see the demand for coal, steel, and fuel going away tomorrow, no matter a slowdown in US and Europe.

Still Believing in Commodities

I agree Kevin. Way too much use of the word "bubble" here in the media, especially on CNBC. I hate the sloppy sensationalism that is being broadcast here as it's bound to confuse the public and possibly keep them from investing in this market long-term. Barron's piece may have been a decent ST trading call but the time windows should have been made clearer.

Also, how about calling this commodity surge something more precise, such as an emerging and powerful global bull market based on simple supply and demand dynamics? I note that even with the recent sharp correction in gold--something most savvy observers predicted several weeks ahead of time--oil remains relatively strong and many gas and oil drillers/explorers are hitting new highs as I write this. IMO crude remains the 800-lb gorilla in this room, and for good reason: it's the very lifeblood of commerce and industrial development.

I'm a buyer of gold around $800 and agree with Jim Rogers that we're still in the early innings of this commodities bull given the emerging global demands, which will only multiply over the next decade. It will be interesting to see if gold rallies after this current bear market equities rally peters out and traders rotate once again to safer havens.

Get Out of Commodities - Barron's

I find it remarkable that the housing bubble went on for several looooong years and yet commodities are already being written off after, what, a few brief months of searing outperformance?

Gold and oil have obviously been running much longer than that, but the fundamentals for both IMO remain as strong as ever, especially oil. Anyone who doubts the case for peak oil at this point should buy a house from Kunst--if the bank hasn't repoed it by now. The world will consume every produceable drop of the stuff for a very long time--and at higher prices than we can imagine today.

Gold needs a bit of a rest now after it's latest run, but since when is a routine technical consolidation considered a "collapse"? CNBC and its touts truly look like fools when they throw these words around so carelessly, and I've been amazed at the Cramer/Kudlow dog and pony propaganda show lately in which they try to talk the US stock market higher. They're emitting a distinct air of desperation lately, and Kudlow's looking the bigger fool by the day IMO.

And with the fed all but turning the dollar into play paper and staglation rearing its ugly head, I see only strength ahead long term for gold, but exited a position in FSAGX a couple weeks ago when gold looked ready to roll over.

Much of the conflict here in sentiment has to do with different timing windows, with Barron's usually representing the LT investor vs the ST/IT trader. In this particular case it appears Barron's is trying to give trading advice to investors, which is a bit screwy. Either way, I still think they're wrong to be calling an end to this bull when it's just gathering some steam for a massive multi-year run.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets, Technical Indicators

P.S. I bought puts on a home builder yesterday morning as it rallied to previous highs. Many smaller builders are facing bankruptcy, and the WSJ had a powerful front page piece last week profiling one of them in the Cleveland area. Very interesting article as it revealed that the sub-prime easy $$$ mortgages were absolutely behind the phantom housing boom in that area. As soon as the easy money began to dry up as lenders started tightening standards, the market fell off a cliff. What would Kudlow say about how the free markets functioned here in encouraging people to spend money they really couldn't afford?

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets, Technical Indicators

David, thanks for the reality check. The happy horse (manure) fairies were in fine form last night on CNBC with Kudlow firmly convinced that happy days are here again for both the US stock market and the dollar--and that those wicked witches of the west, inflation and commodities, are both dead. Bernanke was all but anointed the patron saint of free market capitalism, that last said with a not so straight grinning face. Whatever kind of dust these guys are smoking, I want a kilo. The propaganda mill is in overdrive here as Kudlow & co appear convinced that can talk this market higher, and I hear Kramer crowing this morning about how it may be time to go back into the home market. Talk about the instant gratification generation--these guys have already discounted the recession, soaring inflation, and an all but diseased building environment. Quite an act to witness!