anand

Still Positive on LDK Solar

Is there a written transcript for today's CC?

Some numbers:
Cost of goods sold for wafers in 2009 = $1.02 per watt
Cost of goods sold for wafers less poly = $0.25 per watt
Cost of goods sold for poly per watt= $0.77

Using 6.5 grams of poly per watt, projected blended ASP for poly in 2009 = $118.

Todd, do you have any perspectives on the CC? Can we touch base offline via e-mail?

LDK Solar: Guidance Disappoints, But Opportunity Awaits

ezetrader, where is your sourcing that LDK's cost of goods sold per watt at the wafer level excluding poly is $0.30?

Todd wrote "Its backlog is impressive – at about 14GW in wafer orders and 6GW in tolling."
What does "Tolling" mean?

Four Semiconductor Stocks Worth Owning in 2009

I believe that SPWRA uses 6 grams of poly per watt. This means that the polysilicon related cost of goods sold measured in cents per watt = (cost of poly in dollars/kg)*(kg/167 watts)*(100 cents/dollar)

For example at $100/Kg, poly represents about 60 cents per watt. At $35/kg (which is the cost of goods sold for Poly inclusive of depreciation), poly represents 21 cents per watt.

Is there a way to verify that SPWRA requires 6 grams of poly per watt?

Four Semiconductor Stocks Worth Owning in 2009

As I understand it, SPWRA (or more precisely its joint venture) buys polysilicon, produces ingots, converts ingots into wafers (SPWRA buys ingots from its joint venture), converts wafers into cells, converts cells into modules, and installs modules.

Do you have a good estimate of what SPWRA's cost of goods sold is per watt excluding polysilicon (which SPWRA buys from suppliers)? What are your projections for how quickly SPWRA's cost of goods sold per watt excluding poly will drop over time.

Four Worthwhile Semiconductor Stocks

Would you still by SPSN right now? What do you think about its patent portfolio as we go forward into 3, 4 and 5 multilevel cell flash? That seems (SFUN's old patent portfolio) seems to be the most valuable part of SPSN.

The greatest short term danger is that a liquidity crisis forces chapter 7.

What do you think about MU compared to SNDK and SPSN?

How to Save the U.S. Economy

Any perspective on the SWC and HL earnings? What CAPEX per quarter are you projecting for HL?

Do you have any thoughts on TCK? Or do you think that large industrial metals, oil sands and coal should be avoided?

Teck Gives a Lesson in Timely Tactics

Would you buy TCK at current prices? What CAPEX are you building into your model over the next couple of quarters?

EnerNOC: Smart Grid Business Models Taking Shape

what do you think about today's ENOC earnings?

Safe Haven Investments: Imminent Danger and Opportunities

What do you think about HL? It has fallen substantially today? How will they meet their short term portion of long term debt? ($134 million)?

Even with that short term liquidity need, I don't understand why the current valuation is so low.

Two Strong Energy Rebound Candidates

Kurt. What do you think about buying EPL here? Maybe below $3.30 a share? You use to like it.

It has good cashflow from operations. However only has $8 million in cash on hand . . . and its line of credit (30 out 150 million drawn) is tenuous with the global financial crisis.

It seems to cheap to pass up. If it could some how borrow $100 million and buy shares with it, that would seem like a no brainer.

Comparison of Chinese Polysilicon Based Solar Module Manufacturers

This article was well written. Is there a way to talk offline about solar right now? Can we talk on this article's comment section?

SunPower Gets Market Drubbing, so Who's Next?

I very much liked your article on " PV Industry in Oversupply in 2008."

I would love to talk to you offline, or via the comment section here. Is that possible?

I have some ideas on what solar companies represent the best buys at present, and would love to run my numbers (spreadsheets) and metrics buy you.

Evergreen Solar: Why This Overlooked Company Is a Good Investment

156 by 156 mm wafers use about 7 grams of poly (including kerf loss and other wastage) per watt.

At $200 per kg for poly, that is $1.40 per watt in poly costs
At $100 per kg for poly, that is $0.70 per watt in poly costs
At $50 per kg for poly, that is $0.35 per watt in poly costs
At $40 per kg for poly, that is $0.28 per watt in poly costs.

The cost of goods sold to make poly is about $30 per kg. Some poly manufacturers have a cost of goods sold of $20 per kg of poly.

I am trying to calculate how many grams of poly are needed per watt of solar module peak capacity for ESLR. Any suggestions here for how to compute it?

Evergreen Solar: Why This Overlooked Company Is a Good Investment

What is the best solar stock to buy today?

I am thinking
1) LDK (better than WFR?) in the Poly and wafer/ingot space
2) STP (best of breed pure play in traditional 14% to 16% solar efficiency solar cell PV that buys wafer/ingots to make solar modules)
3) SPWRA (best of breed in the solar cell PV space with 19% to 22% solar efficiency panels)
4) AMAT or SOLR in the solar equipment manufacturer space
5) ESLR in the String Ribbon solar cell space

Which technologies will survive longer term? Probably SPWRA and ESLR because they have the highest solar energy capture efficiency?

AMAT will also survive because many new solar technologies require difficult to replicate AMAT equipment. How difficult is it for competitors to replicate SOLR's solar portfolio?

OK, way too many questions, and not enough answers. Any ideas here?

Evergreen Solar: Why This Overlooked Company Is a Good Investment

longtermstocks, thanks for that. Any other presentations anyone would recommend?

This was quite useful:
www.evergreensolar.com...

Looks like ESLR buys processed polysilicon and sells solar PV modules. Fully vertical integrated. Efficiency seems very high at the module level. What is kerf loss? Cost of goods sold? Is thickness = 180 microns? Cost of converting square meter of polysilicon (other than kerf loss) into modules (inclusive of combining the string ribbons into modules)?

I need to do more research. Any help would be appreciated.