anand's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/159418/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/113296-four-semiconductor-stocks-worth-owning-in-2009?source=feed#comment-351046 351046
For example at $100/Kg, poly represents about 60 cents per watt. At $35/kg (which is the cost of goods sold for Poly inclusive of depreciation), poly represents 21 cents per watt.

Is there a way to verify that SPWRA requires 6 grams of poly per watt?]]> Fri, 09 Jan 2009 13:54:45 -0500
For example at $100/Kg, poly represents about 60 cents per watt. At $35/kg (which is the cost of goods sold for Poly inclusive of depreciation), poly represents 21 cents per watt.

Is there a way to verify that SPWRA requires 6 grams of poly per watt?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113296-four-semiconductor-stocks-worth-owning-in-2009?source=feed#comment-351030 351030
Do you have a good estimate of what SPWRA's cost of goods sold is per watt excluding polysilicon (which SPWRA buys from suppliers)? What are your projections for how quickly SPWRA's cost of goods sold per watt excluding poly will drop over time.]]> Fri, 09 Jan 2009 13:46:31 -0500
Do you have a good estimate of what SPWRA's cost of goods sold is per watt excluding polysilicon (which SPWRA buys from suppliers)? What are your projections for how quickly SPWRA's cost of goods sold per watt excluding poly will drop over time.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104099-four-worthwhile-semiconductor-stocks?source=feed#comment-338265 338265
The greatest short term danger is that a liquidity crisis forces chapter 7.

What do you think about MU compared to SNDK and SPSN?]]> Thu, 25 Dec 2008 15:00:36 -0500
The greatest short term danger is that a liquidity crisis forces chapter 7.

What do you think about MU compared to SNDK and SPSN?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105372-how-to-save-the-u-s-economy?source=feed#comment-304030 304030
Do you have any thoughts on TCK? Or do you think that large industrial metals, oil sands and coal should be avoided?]]> Wed, 12 Nov 2008 10:53:21 -0500
Do you have any thoughts on TCK? Or do you think that large industrial metals, oil sands and coal should be avoided?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104155-teck-gives-a-lesson-in-timely-tactics?source=feed#comment-303403 303403 Tue, 11 Nov 2008 17:23:11 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/101085-enernoc-smart-grid-business-models-taking-shape?source=feed#comment-302311 302311 Mon, 10 Nov 2008 16:26:34 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/102363-safe-haven-investments-imminent-danger-and-opportunities?source=feed#comment-300329 300329
Even with that short term liquidity need, I don't understand why the current valuation is so low.]]> Fri, 07 Nov 2008 14:42:29 -0500
Even with that short term liquidity need, I don't understand why the current valuation is so low.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103541-two-strong-energy-rebound-candidates?source=feed#comment-298805 298805
It has good cashflow from operations. However only has $8 million in cash on hand . . . and its line of credit (30 out 150 million drawn) is tenuous with the global financial crisis.

It seems to cheap to pass up. If it could some how borrow $100 million and buy shares with it, that would seem like a no brainer.

]]> Wed, 05 Nov 2008 13:25:43 -0500
It has good cashflow from operations. However only has $8 million in cash on hand . . . and its line of credit (30 out 150 million drawn) is tenuous with the global financial crisis.

It seems to cheap to pass up. If it could some how borrow $100 million and buy shares with it, that would seem like a no brainer.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/55233-comparison-of-chinese-polysilicon-based-solar-module-manufacturers?source=feed#comment-292166 292166 Tue, 28 Oct 2008 02:05:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/61617-sunpower-gets-market-drubbing-so-who-s-next?source=feed#comment-292161 292161
I would love to talk to you offline, or via the comment section here. Is that possible?

I have some ideas on what solar companies represent the best buys at present, and would love to run my numbers (spreadsheets) and metrics buy you.]]> Tue, 28 Oct 2008 01:33:48 -0400
I would love to talk to you offline, or via the comment section here. Is that possible?

I have some ideas on what solar companies represent the best buys at present, and would love to run my numbers (spreadsheets) and metrics buy you.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101110-evergreen-solar-why-this-overlooked-company-is-a-good-investment?source=feed#comment-290330 290330
At $200 per kg for poly, that is $1.40 per watt in poly costs
At $100 per kg for poly, that is $0.70 per watt in poly costs
At $50 per kg for poly, that is $0.35 per watt in poly costs
At $40 per kg for poly, that is $0.28 per watt in poly costs.

The cost of goods sold to make poly is about $30 per kg. Some poly manufacturers have a cost of goods sold of $20 per kg of poly.

I am trying to calculate how many grams of poly are needed per watt of solar module peak capacity for ESLR. Any suggestions here for how to compute it?]]> Sat, 25 Oct 2008 14:26:38 -0400
At $200 per kg for poly, that is $1.40 per watt in poly costs
At $100 per kg for poly, that is $0.70 per watt in poly costs
At $50 per kg for poly, that is $0.35 per watt in poly costs
At $40 per kg for poly, that is $0.28 per watt in poly costs.

The cost of goods sold to make poly is about $30 per kg. Some poly manufacturers have a cost of goods sold of $20 per kg of poly.

I am trying to calculate how many grams of poly are needed per watt of solar module peak capacity for ESLR. Any suggestions here for how to compute it?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101110-evergreen-solar-why-this-overlooked-company-is-a-good-investment?source=feed#comment-288932 288932
I am thinking
1) LDK (better than WFR?) in the Poly and wafer/ingot space
2) STP (best of breed pure play in traditional 14% to 16% solar efficiency solar cell PV that buys wafer/ingots to make solar modules)
3) SPWRA (best of breed in the solar cell PV space with 19% to 22% solar efficiency panels)
4) AMAT or SOLR in the solar equipment manufacturer space
5) ESLR in the String Ribbon solar cell space

Which technologies will survive longer term? Probably SPWRA and ESLR because they have the highest solar energy capture efficiency?

AMAT will also survive because many new solar technologies require difficult to replicate AMAT equipment. How difficult is it for competitors to replicate SOLR's solar portfolio?

OK, way too many questions, and not enough answers. Any ideas here?]]> Thu, 23 Oct 2008 13:52:45 -0400
I am thinking
1) LDK (better than WFR?) in the Poly and wafer/ingot space
2) STP (best of breed pure play in traditional 14% to 16% solar efficiency solar cell PV that buys wafer/ingots to make solar modules)
3) SPWRA (best of breed in the solar cell PV space with 19% to 22% solar efficiency panels)
4) AMAT or SOLR in the solar equipment manufacturer space
5) ESLR in the String Ribbon solar cell space

Which technologies will survive longer term? Probably SPWRA and ESLR because they have the highest solar energy capture efficiency?

AMAT will also survive because many new solar technologies require difficult to replicate AMAT equipment. How difficult is it for competitors to replicate SOLR's solar portfolio?

OK, way too many questions, and not enough answers. Any ideas here?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101110-evergreen-solar-why-this-overlooked-company-is-a-good-investment?source=feed#comment-288188 288188
This was quite useful:
www.evergreensolar.com...

Looks like ESLR buys processed polysilicon and sells solar PV modules. Fully vertical integrated. Efficiency seems very high at the module level. What is kerf loss? Cost of goods sold? Is thickness = 180 microns? Cost of converting square meter of polysilicon (other than kerf loss) into modules (inclusive of combining the string ribbons into modules)?

I need to do more research. Any help would be appreciated.]]> Wed, 22 Oct 2008 17:27:34 -0400
This was quite useful:
www.evergreensolar.com...

Looks like ESLR buys processed polysilicon and sells solar PV modules. Fully vertical integrated. Efficiency seems very high at the module level. What is kerf loss? Cost of goods sold? Is thickness = 180 microns? Cost of converting square meter of polysilicon (other than kerf loss) into modules (inclusive of combining the string ribbons into modules)?

I need to do more research. Any help would be appreciated.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101110-evergreen-solar-why-this-overlooked-company-is-a-good-investment?source=feed#comment-288079 288079
Some dumb questions since I haven’t done my homework on this company yet:

1) What is the solar efficiency on string ribbon (what percentage of sunlight energy is converted into electricity)? How much solar efficiency is lost by converting string ribbons into modules?
2) Is there another website other than www.evergreensolar.com... that describes the process?
3) What is the thinkness of the string ribbons, especially after they transition to second generation furnace technology which will grow four ribbons at the same time?
a. Presumably it is less than 180 microns (typical for solar cell PV)
4) What is the silicon wastage in the production process (I am trying to determine the amount of silicon that is needed per square meter of string ribbon module. The typical solar cell module needs about 7 grams of polysilicon per 150 by 150 cm cell, or about 350 grams of silicon per square meter of module.)
a. Who does ESLR plan to buy the silicon from? WFR? Dow Corning? How much of ESLR’s silicon supply is locked into long term polysilicon contracts? In practice, these long term contract prices can be negotiated downwards if the price of poly falls. How much flex could ESLR negotiate in its existing long term contracts? With falling poly prices, the more ESLR can buy in spot markets, the better.
5) How much string ribbon solar efficiency is lost by combining 80 mm wide strips into modules? (Typically 2% points of solar efficiency is lost by combining solar cells into modules)
6) Does ESLR only buy poly silicon, rather than wafers?
7) What other raw material costs does ESLR have other than polysilicon?
8) What is the cost of goods sold for creating a square meter of string ribbon module excluding the cost of silicon?
9) Will Devon II use the 4 ribbon at a time second generation furnace technology? How much will it cost (in additional CAPEX) to upgrade Devon to the 4 ribbon technology (which will presumably be a high ROI investment if it reduces the cost of goods sold for string ribbon modules)?
Sorry for so many questions, but I haven’t talked to the ESLR guys at a conference yet, and haven’t done due diligence on it.

Is ESLR your favorite solar company right now? You mentioned that you also like LDK. Maybe I can ask you some similar questions on LDK at some future point in time. LDK plans to build wafers with diameters of 180 cm next year, and 200 cm the year after. {The highest in production now by LDK or the industry is 150 cm.}
]]> Wed, 22 Oct 2008 15:40:19 -0400
Some dumb questions since I haven’t done my homework on this company yet:

1) What is the solar efficiency on string ribbon (what percentage of sunlight energy is converted into electricity)? How much solar efficiency is lost by converting string ribbons into modules?
2) Is there another website other than www.evergreensolar.com... that describes the process?
3) What is the thinkness of the string ribbons, especially after they transition to second generation furnace technology which will grow four ribbons at the same time?
a. Presumably it is less than 180 microns (typical for solar cell PV)
4) What is the silicon wastage in the production process (I am trying to determine the amount of silicon that is needed per square meter of string ribbon module. The typical solar cell module needs about 7 grams of polysilicon per 150 by 150 cm cell, or about 350 grams of silicon per square meter of module.)
a. Who does ESLR plan to buy the silicon from? WFR? Dow Corning? How much of ESLR’s silicon supply is locked into long term polysilicon contracts? In practice, these long term contract prices can be negotiated downwards if the price of poly falls. How much flex could ESLR negotiate in its existing long term contracts? With falling poly prices, the more ESLR can buy in spot markets, the better.
5) How much string ribbon solar efficiency is lost by combining 80 mm wide strips into modules? (Typically 2% points of solar efficiency is lost by combining solar cells into modules)
6) Does ESLR only buy poly silicon, rather than wafers?
7) What other raw material costs does ESLR have other than polysilicon?
8) What is the cost of goods sold for creating a square meter of string ribbon module excluding the cost of silicon?
9) Will Devon II use the 4 ribbon at a time second generation furnace technology? How much will it cost (in additional CAPEX) to upgrade Devon to the 4 ribbon technology (which will presumably be a high ROI investment if it reduces the cost of goods sold for string ribbon modules)?
Sorry for so many questions, but I haven’t talked to the ESLR guys at a conference yet, and haven’t done due diligence on it.

Is ESLR your favorite solar company right now? You mentioned that you also like LDK. Maybe I can ask you some similar questions on LDK at some future point in time. LDK plans to build wafers with diameters of 180 cm next year, and 200 cm the year after. {The highest in production now by LDK or the industry is 150 cm.}
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98171-all-quiet-on-the-dram-front-can-micron-survive-the-war-of-attrition?source=feed#comment-284216 284216 Thu, 16 Oct 2008 23:54:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/98171-all-quiet-on-the-dram-front-can-micron-survive-the-war-of-attrition?source=feed#comment-284214 284214 Thu, 16 Oct 2008 23:54:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/100148-seven-stocks-for-an-impending-apocalypse?source=feed#comment-284205 284205
seekingalpha.com/artic...]]> Thu, 16 Oct 2008 23:26:01 -0400
seekingalpha.com/artic...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100148-seven-stocks-for-an-impending-apocalypse?source=feed#comment-284204 284204 Thu, 16 Oct 2008 23:24:08 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/72862-is-apple-making-way-for-the-new-iphone?source=feed#comment-153874 153874
Question:

How many Watt Hours is the i-phone battery (current version.) The Apple website is silent on that topic. Does anyone know how I can find the answer to this question?

FYI, the Apple laptops sport battery lives of:
68 Watt Hours MacBook Pro (17 inch model and upgraded 15 inch model)
60 Watt Hours MacBook Pro (cheaper 15 inch model)
55 Watt Hours MacBook
37 Watt Hours MacBook Air

User 133328, because of the open API, expect many mobile games coming your way late this year.

Seth, even though the 3G i-phone chipset might be able to support a 5 megapixel camera, I doubt the 3 G i-phone introduced in June will have a 5 megapixel camera. 2-4 megapixel is more likely.

I see the 5 megapixel camera becoming standard on all i-phones next January.

]]> Mon, 21 Apr 2008 01:06:27 -0400
Question:

How many Watt Hours is the i-phone battery (current version.) The Apple website is silent on that topic. Does anyone know how I can find the answer to this question?

FYI, the Apple laptops sport battery lives of:
68 Watt Hours MacBook Pro (17 inch model and upgraded 15 inch model)
60 Watt Hours MacBook Pro (cheaper 15 inch model)
55 Watt Hours MacBook
37 Watt Hours MacBook Air

User 133328, because of the open API, expect many mobile games coming your way late this year.

Seth, even though the 3G i-phone chipset might be able to support a 5 megapixel camera, I doubt the 3 G i-phone introduced in June will have a 5 megapixel camera. 2-4 megapixel is more likely.

I see the 5 megapixel camera becoming standard on all i-phones next January.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/66506-enernoc-should-bounce-following-weak-earnings-report?source=feed#comment-121362 121362
Why is the stock down so much today? The market capitalization is about two times project revenue this year.]]> Mon, 03 Mar 2008 02:09:41 -0500
Why is the stock down so much today? The market capitalization is about two times project revenue this year.]]>