anand

Evergreen Solar: Why This Overlooked Company Is a Good Investment

156 by 156 mm wafers use about 7 grams of poly (including kerf loss and other wastage) per watt.

At $200 per kg for poly, that is $1.40 per watt in poly costs
At $100 per kg for poly, that is $0.70 per watt in poly costs
At $50 per kg for poly, that is $0.35 per watt in poly costs
At $40 per kg for poly, that is $0.28 per watt in poly costs.

The cost of goods sold to make poly is about $30 per kg. Some poly manufacturers have a cost of goods sold of $20 per kg of poly.

I am trying to calculate how many grams of poly are needed per watt of solar module peak capacity for ESLR. Any suggestions here for how to compute it?

Evergreen Solar: Why This Overlooked Company Is a Good Investment

What is the best solar stock to buy today?

I am thinking
1) LDK (better than WFR?) in the Poly and wafer/ingot space
2) STP (best of breed pure play in traditional 14% to 16% solar efficiency solar cell PV that buys wafer/ingots to make solar modules)
3) SPWRA (best of breed in the solar cell PV space with 19% to 22% solar efficiency panels)
4) AMAT or SOLR in the solar equipment manufacturer space
5) ESLR in the String Ribbon solar cell space

Which technologies will survive longer term? Probably SPWRA and ESLR because they have the highest solar energy capture efficiency?

AMAT will also survive because many new solar technologies require difficult to replicate AMAT equipment. How difficult is it for competitors to replicate SOLR's solar portfolio?

OK, way too many questions, and not enough answers. Any ideas here?

Evergreen Solar: Why This Overlooked Company Is a Good Investment

longtermstocks, thanks for that. Any other presentations anyone would recommend?

This was quite useful:
www.evergreensolar.com...

Looks like ESLR buys processed polysilicon and sells solar PV modules. Fully vertical integrated. Efficiency seems very high at the module level. What is kerf loss? Cost of goods sold? Is thickness = 180 microns? Cost of converting square meter of polysilicon (other than kerf loss) into modules (inclusive of combining the string ribbons into modules)?

I need to do more research. Any help would be appreciated.

Evergreen Solar: Why This Overlooked Company Is a Good Investment

Good article.

Some dumb questions since I haven’t done my homework on this company yet:

1) What is the solar efficiency on string ribbon (what percentage of sunlight energy is converted into electricity)? How much solar efficiency is lost by converting string ribbons into modules?
2) Is there another website other than www.evergreensolar.com... that describes the process?
3) What is the thinkness of the string ribbons, especially after they transition to second generation furnace technology which will grow four ribbons at the same time?
a. Presumably it is less than 180 microns (typical for solar cell PV)
4) What is the silicon wastage in the production process (I am trying to determine the amount of silicon that is needed per square meter of string ribbon module. The typical solar cell module needs about 7 grams of polysilicon per 150 by 150 cm cell, or about 350 grams of silicon per square meter of module.)
a. Who does ESLR plan to buy the silicon from? WFR? Dow Corning? How much of ESLR’s silicon supply is locked into long term polysilicon contracts? In practice, these long term contract prices can be negotiated downwards if the price of poly falls. How much flex could ESLR negotiate in its existing long term contracts? With falling poly prices, the more ESLR can buy in spot markets, the better.
5) How much string ribbon solar efficiency is lost by combining 80 mm wide strips into modules? (Typically 2% points of solar efficiency is lost by combining solar cells into modules)
6) Does ESLR only buy poly silicon, rather than wafers?
7) What other raw material costs does ESLR have other than polysilicon?
8) What is the cost of goods sold for creating a square meter of string ribbon module excluding the cost of silicon?
9) Will Devon II use the 4 ribbon at a time second generation furnace technology? How much will it cost (in additional CAPEX) to upgrade Devon to the 4 ribbon technology (which will presumably be a high ROI investment if it reduces the cost of goods sold for string ribbon modules)?
Sorry for so many questions, but I haven’t talked to the ESLR guys at a conference yet, and haven’t done due diligence on it.

Is ESLR your favorite solar company right now? You mentioned that you also like LDK. Maybe I can ask you some similar questions on LDK at some future point in time. LDK plans to build wafers with diameters of 180 cm next year, and 200 cm the year after. {The highest in production now by LDK or the industry is 150 cm.}

Seven Stocks for an Impending Apocalypse

Nice article. I see my first comment didn't post. Could you and your informed readers please respond to:

seekingalpha.com/artic...

Seven Stocks for an Impending Apocalypse

I see that you are interested in flash. Can I ask you a question about it here? Or should I ask you on your d-ram article? What do you think about SPSN, and specifically its SFUN acquired flash IP portfolio?