raman kandola

Replanting Soybeans Should Drive Need for Seed, Fertilizer

this is a big buying opportunity before the USDA Crop report for Monday afternoon. Looking to see a big move for the upside, with 3 weeks before the earnings.

Buying Fertilizer Stocks In Lieu of Camel Futures

AGU is going higher today in the morning ! check related news ...

May 5 (Bloomberg) -- Incitec Pivot Ltd., Australia's largest fertilizer maker, raised its full-year earnings forecast after first-half profit almost tripled because of higher prices for crop nutrients driven by surging global food demand.

Net income rose to a record A$169.8 million ($159 million), or A$3.367 a share, in the six months ended March 31, from A$57.2 million, or A$1.133, a year earlier, the Melbourne-based company said today in a statement.

Rising food prices are ``threatening to plunge more than 100 million people on every continent into hunger,'' the United Nations said last month. Incitec today raised it full-year earnings forecast 16 percent on expectations of higher average fertilizer prices driven by food demand in China and India.

``Worldwide there is a drastic food shortage looming,'' said Peter Russell, head of research at brokerage Intersuisse Ltd. who has an ``accumulate'' rating on the stock. ``I don't see any reason to see the share price or the prospects for profitability to come back.''

Incitec fell 50 cents, or 0.3 percent, to A$171 on the Australian stock exchange at the 4:10 p.m. close of trade in Sydney. The stock has surged more than threefold in the past year, compared with a 9.1 percent decline in the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index.

The first-half profit compares with the A$175 million median estimate of four analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News by phone and e-mail.

Record Prices

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., the world's largest crop- nutrient maker by market value, said last month first-quarter profit almost tripled and Agrium Inc. last week reported profit of $195 million, from a loss a year earlier, as record crop prices increased demand for agricultural nutrients.

``The increase in fertilizer prices is clearly as a result in global forces, specifically the significant increase in the demand for food,'' Chief Executive Officer Julian Segal said today on a call with reporters. ``The industry consensus is that over the next few years prices will stay high at current kind of levels, and then probably taper off a little bit.''

Prices for diammonium phosphate, known as DAP and produced by Incitec, more than doubled in the first-half, the company said. DAP for immediate delivery increased to $1,195 a ton as at March 31, up from $433 a ton as at Sept.30, 2007, it said.

Food Crisis

``With the big economies of India and China developing at this rate and the standard of living improving in these economies, clearly there has been a tremendous increase in demand for food,'' Segal said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

The global food crisis is an ``unprecedented challenge,'' UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon said last month. Ban will chair a new UN taskforce to counter the effects of soaring food prices that are putting basics beyond the reach of the world's poorest people. The World Bank has warned the crisis may trigger civil disturbances in 33 countries.

``Fertilizer is an answer to that problem,'' Segal said. ``The only way to cope with the increased demand for food is to produce more food with the same arable land and the only way you can do it is using more nutrients.''

Full-year earnings before interest and tax may be A$850 million, Incitec Chief Financial Officer James Fazzino said today in a separate statement. That compares with the A$700 million to A$730 million forecast made on March 6.

``Fertilizers are obviously the central component of growing food,'' Tom Elliott, of hedge fund MM&E Capital Ltd. said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Melbourne. ``We'll see probably another, better profit from Incitec this time next year.''

The company will pay a first-half dividend of A$2.04, compared with 69 cents a year earlier, Incitec said.

Bull Market Continues for Potash

POT is a nice stock over all. I have been following this stock for the past 3 years. It has been great winner for me, over all. Just on stock persperctive, I have seen this stock move higher on the 4th week of every month. Or on the expiration week's we have the MM's holding the stock lower, for their further gain.

Today was a good day to see how the MM's or Specialist did hold the stock lower, and get the max options pain for the option holder, and by simultaneously the short term stock trader.

POT is riding a nice cycle wave who which would continue for the foreseaable future.