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ArtfulDodger

ArtfulDodger
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  • Seadrill: Where Do Analysts Stand On Seadrill After Its Dividend Suspension? [View article]
    Fellow Investors:

    A true contrarian play is investing in something that is unjustifiably out-of-favor and has good numbers and good management behind the company.

    A classic contrarian play is when one company gets hit in a sector because of problems it alone has and that unjustifiably drags down the price of other companies in that sector. Go contrarian hunting then.

    For a company with 130% debt to equity that has just suspended its dividend and whose income stream is not at all sure, the whack SDRL's price has gotten is not unjustified. Debt like this is extremely difficult to service, especially if other problems arise — and they always do when companies are struggling.

    SDRL may have been whacked too hard. I don't know one way or the other.

    But why go rummaging into the trash dump of troubled companies, when there are plenty of solid investments to be made elsewhere?

    I am, the ArtfulDodger

    Note: I do not or have I ever owned SDRL. Before this recent debacle I have urged investors to duck and dump this company, mainly because of its massive debt load. That has not at this point changed.
    Dec 4, 2014. 09:20 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Santander: Why Was The CEO Fired? And What Does That Mean? [View article]
    Very good piece, NA.

    Thank you for it and your work. Keep it up, please.

    The best and have a great Christmas: AD
    Dec 4, 2014. 03:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Seadrill Just Become A Gold Mine To New Investors? [View article]
    Thank you, Ian.

    Good comment. Excellent bio!

    Be well and the best to your investing.

    I am, the ArtfulDodger
    Dec 3, 2014. 10:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Seadrill Just Become A Gold Mine To New Investors? [View article]
    Dog:

    I don't normally respond to commenters who have not given us at least a small bio of themselves and their goals.

    But in this case, I must say that if that's all Dog pulled out of my comment, he's an idiot.

    AD
    Dec 3, 2014. 10:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Seadrill Just Become A Gold Mine To New Investors? [View article]
    Fellow Investors:

    I love buying companies that are out of favor, for what I believe are unjustified or short-term reasons, and that have good, clean balance sheets. Although certainly out of favor, SDRL does not fit the latter required part of that pattern at all.

    I'll let each of you decide on whether the crash in the stock price is justified, and briefly make a few points about the balance sheet that keep me from investing in SDRL.

    cash: 1.5b
    debt: 13b
    debt due in a relatively short time: 2.25b
    total debt to equity: 130.00 (as I rule, I require less than 50% debt to equity)

    I personally want a current ratio well above one; SDRL's is 20% below one.

    Of course, if you check my comments on this very popular dividend stock, I have been urging investors not to chase SDRL's dividend, mainly because of the company's huge debt load.

    Now, I'm urging investors not to dive into a company (in an effort to catch a turnaround in its price) whose future income may be in jeopardy for several reasons that are hardly predictable.

    There are far safer investments, with much more stable future income streams, that pay solid dividends, and have stellar balance sheets.

    Why jump into these shark-ridden waters? Why allocate your precious investing funds in a place this risky?

    However, for those of you who want to venture into these treacherous waters or who plan on holding SDRL hoping for a turnaround, I surely wish you well.

    But I myself shall not tread into those waters.

    I remain, the ArtfulDodger

    Note: I don't usually repost a comment, but I do so here, because I would hope to convince investors to put their funds in a safer, less risky investment than SDRL. If SDRL manages to pull out of its debt troubles over the next half-a-year or so, there will be plenty of time to buy it.

    I would remind everyone that the only thing I know of that has destroyed more companies than governments is debt.

    Patience is called for at this point — not some kind of hope-for-the-best shot into an ill wind. Think of your overall portfolio — and act accordingly.
    Dec 3, 2014. 04:56 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Seadrill Stock Worth Considering Right Now? [View article]
    Very good point, EL. Thank you!
    Dec 3, 2014. 02:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Seadrill Stock Worth Considering Right Now? [View article]
    Fellow Investors:

    I love buying companies that are out of favor, for what I believe are unjustified or short-term reasons, and that have good, clean balance sheets. Although certainly out of favor, SDRL does not fit the latter required part of that pattern at all.

    I'll let each of you decide on whether the crash in the stock price is justified, and briefly make a few points about the balance sheet that keep me from investing in SDRL.

    cash: 1.5b
    debt: 13b
    debt due in a relatively short time: 2.25b
    total debt to equity: 130.00 (as I rule, I require less than 50% debt to equity)

    I personally want a current ratio well above one; SDRL's is 20% below one.

    Of course, if you check my comments on this very popular dividend stock, I have been urging investors not to chase SDRL's dividend, mainly because of the company's huge debt load.

    Now, I'm urging investors not to dive into a company (in an effort to catch a turnaround in its price) whose future income may be in jeopardy for several reasons that are hardly predictable.

    There are far safer investments, with much more stable future income streams, that pay solid dividends, and have stellar balance sheets. Why jump into these shark-ridden waters?

    However, for those of you who want to venture into these treacherous waters or who plan on holding SDRL hoping for a turnaround, I surely wish you well.

    But I myself shall not tread into those waters.

    I remain, the ArtfulDodger
    Dec 3, 2014. 01:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: Lower Oil Prices Will Not Faze This Dividend Champ [View article]
    C D:

    Love your dog, Hudy. Papillon, is it not?

    The best: AD
    Nov 29, 2014. 03:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Why I Don't Care About Mr. Market's Knee-Jerk Reaction [View article]
    Fellow Investors:

    I am definitely not saying, I told you so, though I warned in comments for years about the massive debt this company was carrying.

    Let this be a lesson to those who got caught chasing the dividend of a stock that had 130% debt to equity. My numbers showed that SDRL needed to pay down at least half its debt before I could consider it an investable stock.

    With that much debt, one bad quarter can kill a stock, or at least wreck its price, as has occurred here. Debt has destroyed more businesses than governments — and that's saying a mouthful.

    I loath telling people to dump dogs they're loser with, but think of your overall portfolio, and let this one go bark somewhere else — and move on. There are far better stocks than this one with much less debt and with safe dividends. Why hold on to a barker like this?

    You don't just hang on to stocks that continue to drop, as SDRL has. To manage a portfolio well, you need to dump rabid dogs quickly, before they do so much damage it will take years to come back from it. Never say to yourself, "It can't go much lower," because it can.

    Sorry this happened to SDRL investors, and I hope it turns out well in the end for all involved. However, the lesson of ducking companies with massive debt may be the only positive investors can pull out of this one.

    I am, the ArtfulDodger
    Nov 27, 2014. 05:36 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Banco Santander Earnings [View article]
    Thank you, Debutant, for that point regarding JPM. We can add several other US banks to that list, too.

    Also, the control that the US government now has over banks is far greater than those in many socialist states. Besides that, SAN works governments in a congenial way better than any business I've ever seen.

    Wise investors and honest to boot. That says a lot, does it not? What a buy at this point!!

    As far as the scrip goes, does it not amaze you how many people trip over dollars to save pennies? But truly, as it's easy to see, most of those carpers are not investors; they are rather net trolls looking for some angle to gripe about. No matter. They obviously don't understand the reward shareholders will reap while accepting the scrip as SAN builds its amazing worldwide business a discount prices.

    Thank you again for your comments regarding SAN.

    The best, AD
    Nov 26, 2014. 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Irrationality: The Santander Case [View article]
    Yes, NA, I have traded the cycles with this bank several times over the years. Always made money.

    However, as you well know, just because something was a perfect topping indicator in the past doesn't mean it will be this time, but I do think it will be a sign to watch for, to start taking profits from companies bought during the downturn.

    I don't concern myself much with SAN's management because they're all trained in the same method of buying during crashes and downturns and selling during booms and upturns. These people don't blink at what the rest of the world considers earth-shattering catastrophes. They just keep chugging along as if nothing has happened. Coolness, a lot of coolness. I love it!

    That discipline has only worked for over a hundred years. I don't see SAN changing. Ha.

    Thank you very much for your piece and for responding to your readers.

    Very good work. Please keep it up.

    Have a great Thanksgiving.

    I remain, the ArtfulDodger
    Nov 26, 2014. 01:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Australian Stocks To Consider For Income And Growth [View article]
    Hunk:

    Know and own ANZBY. Thanks for the alert on the others.

    Be well. And have a good Thanksgiving.

    I am, the ArtfulDodger
    Nov 26, 2014. 12:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Banco Santander Earnings [View article]
    SAN News for SAN Investors

    The savvy investors at SAN are still in a buying mode, which means they believe opportunities remain as the world climbs out of the lingering downturn.

    I have noticed that, during this downturn, much of SAN's buying spree has involved high-end clients. That, I think, is a good move.

    Let me reiterate this historical note: When SAN stops buying, historically, it's a sign that prices have heated up to the point they're too hot to touch. This brilliant group of investors likes buying great assets while they're cool, to make a double entendre.

    Happy Thanksgiving, and the best to all SAN owners: AD

    See below:

    MEXICO CITY--Grupo Financiero Santander Mexico said Tuesday it has agreed to buy a consumer loan portfolio valued at 4.10 billion pesos ($300 million) from the Mexican unit of Scotiabank, with the aim of increasing its market share in personal loans.

    Santander Mexico said in a release that about 90% of the more than 47,000 clients in the portfolio represent new business opportunities for the bank, a unit of Spain's Banco Santander (SAN). Nearly all of the clients in the portfolio are considered middle- to high-income.

    Santander, one of Mexico's largest commercial banks with assets of about $68 billion and more than 11 million customers, hopes to close the deal within the next three months.
    Nov 26, 2014. 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Irrationality: The Santander Case [View article]
    SAN News for SAN Investors

    The savvy investors at SAN are still in a buying mode, which means they believe opportunities remain as the world climbs out of the lingering downturn.

    I have noticed that, during this downturn, much of SAN's buying spree has involved high-end clients.

    Let me reiterate this historical note: When SAN stops buying, historically, it's a sign that prices have heated up to the point they're too hot to touch. This brilliant group of investors likes buying great assets while they're cool, to use a double entendre.

    Happy Thanksgiving, and the best to all SAN owners: AD

    See below:

    MEXICO CITY--Grupo Financiero Santander Mexico said Tuesday it has agreed to buy a consumer loan portfolio valued at 4.10 billion pesos ($300 million) from the Mexican unit of Scotiabank, with the aim of increasing its market share in personal loans.

    Santander Mexico said in a release that about 90% of the more than 47,000 clients in the portfolio represent new business opportunities for the bank, a unit of Spain's Banco Santander (SAN). Nearly all of the clients in the portfolio are considered middle- to high-income.

    Santander, one of Mexico's largest commercial banks with assets of about $68 billion and more than 11 million customers, hopes to close the deal within the next three months.
    Nov 26, 2014. 12:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Irrationality: The Santander Case [View article]
    Good point, Trojan.

    Thank you for the comment.

    AD
    Nov 25, 2014. 07:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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