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ArtfulDodger

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  • The Simple Case For Intel [View article]
    Nich:

    I would like to respond to your comment, but I don't respond to commentators who have no bio.

    The Dodger
    Aug 19 05:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Simple Case For Intel [View article]
    Damned good point, BillCharles. Very, very weak conclusion. I'd have to say the reason for the piece is so that suckers like us would read it and Colorado would get paid. I couldn't imagine what else it's worth.

    Not one bit of new info in the article. As for the huge slide in OM, it's off its 5-year average about 10%. GPM is up slightly. NPM is about the same. The gap between GPM & NPM has been a concern of mine. Hopefully, after all this spending it will close.

    Thanks for that comment.

    The best. The Dodger
    Aug 19 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Looming Black Swan [View article]
    Yo Don:

    Thank you for your comment. You said it better and more concisely than I.

    I loved your bio. Very informative. Excellent that you learned investing from on your on from your own mistakes. Shows you have a great mind.

    Thank you for not telling us how many degrees you have; that makes me jealous, because I don't have any — and it makes me wish I'd taken the one I earned but did not take. Oh how I long to sit behind a desk and listen to someone tell me things I need to know.

    The best to your investing, to you and your wife, and your travels.

    I am, the ArtfulDodger
    Aug 18 08:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Looming Black Swan [View article]
    Moshe wrote: "The more people interpret the current status as "even keel" or "some overdue correction, not too painful", the more likely is the sudden, destructive event. In this case, the exponential assumption of huge amounts of low-interest debt, while buying back own stock. This is a faulty closed-loop system which amplifies value artificially. Concurrently, the US economy is in stagnation (my assertion, right?), and as shown, net cash flows are turning downward in the mean, while fluctuating."

    Comment: Ah ha, a contrarian. I see, I see, said the blind fool.

    Thank you for that comment. I'm saving it if you don't mind.

    Btw, do you have need of a decent writer? I figure I'll be looking for my first formal job since my college summers after this upcoming Black Swan smacks me on my nose.

    The best. The Dodger
    Aug 18 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Santander Looks Poised For Further Gains [View article]
    Thank you for your comments, Vincent. On the money regarding SAN, as always.

    The best. The Dodger
    Aug 17 07:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Santander Looks Poised For Further Gains [View article]
    Good comments, JB. Thanks.

    The Dodger
    Aug 17 07:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Looming Black Swan [View article]
    Moshe:

    With all due respect, just to clarify:

    First, Taleb is definitely not my favorite author; it's the favorite of the author of this article. Which to a fellow with a small brain such as mine, is boggling.

    Second, I was not responding to Taleb's philosophies, but to those of the writer of this piece. Taleb's would require a bit more work.

    Third, life is a nonlinear system, but we must use linear thinking to survive it — and we do that as long as we possibly can, yet, life being what it is, we cannot know how long that will be. How's that?

    Forth, thank you much for your comment and for the compliment on my writing. I try to write clearly and thoroughly. Why not do something properly, if you're going to do it? Eh.

    The best to you and your investing

    I am, the ArtfulDodger
    Aug 17 07:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Santander Looks Poised For Further Gains [View article]
    Very well said, Strike.

    Don't have any idea about "a hidden agenda" anyone may have, but you're on the peapod with the rest of your comment.

    As I noted in earlier comments, investors who concern themselves with the scrip payouts diluting the value of the stock don't realize that SAN makes that up quite easily when times turn upward again, because they've bought so many properties at slop-level prices.

    Thank you for the comment, Strike. The best to you and your investing.

    The ArtfulDodger
    Aug 16 06:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Have You Been Sucked Into The Warren Buffett Trap? [View article]
    EB:

    Very perceptive of you to recognize that WB is no longer a BG investor and has not been since the 1960s. Because WB so touts BG, people think he still follows his investment strategies.

    I believe Munger has affected Buffett moreso than anyone else. In `67 when WB couldn't find any value in stocks and was ready to quit, along came Munger with the philosophy of qualifying an investment moreso than quantifying one.

    Hence, Buffett’s current investment philosophy of buying good companies with good products (protected from competition if possible) and exceptional management — at reasonable prices, rather than searching the globe for cheap companies.

    In my view, Buffett’s supposed philosophy of buy and hold forever is not called for today (something Graham did not teach, and Buffett has not done). When it came into vogue poor, pitiful stock buyers had to pay horrendous fees to buy a stock and punitive taxes on their profits when they sold. That forced them to adopt my dad's Bulldog Philosophy: "Bite on to something that's got some meat to it and hold on until they chain you down, shoot you in the head, and tear it away from you with your teeth still attached to the carcass."

    Brokerage fees are dirt cheap today, and capital gains taxes are still almost a third of what they were in the `50s-`70s. Those two things allow us to take profits without being punished to the max.

    EB, you have a very good understanding of where Buffett has been and where he is today. Thank you for pointing out these things. I agree with your point that it is not the best strategy to follow what Buffett says is his investment philosophy. It ought to be modified somewhat, for the private individual investor.

    Thanks for the piece.

    The best to you and your investing: The ArtfulDodger
    Aug 16 05:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Looming Black Swan [View article]
    Fellow Investors:

    The author wrote: The "black swan theory is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise."

    If something “comes as a surprise,” then it is impossible to predict. A logical-thinking person wouldn’t even try to predict such a thing, even theoretically. Why buck such ungodly odds?

    If, however, an earthquake hits Manhattan in the next few months (a highly improbable event) and the market crashes, then the Black Swan Dreamers are going to say, "I told you so."

    This type of thinking is senseless. This type of reading is worthless. It can’t help anyone as much as one jot. It’s not funny. It’s not informative. It's not reasonable. It can’t possibly help an investor (or a trader). It’s just a lot of bovine scatology covered with a veneer of cynical dreaming.

    Taleb is this writer's favorite author. That ought to set your ears to burning and your gut to churning. In `09, when the market crashed from around 10,000 down to about 6500 just after Obama and Geithner took charge, Taleb and other Black Swaners were all over the tube blathering about how much worse things were going to be. He is just one of several perma-bears who predicted the DOW would go on down another 50% or so, to about 3000 as well as I recall.

    Of course, the Black Swan Crowd always sees Black Swans behind every bush — that will never change. They will love this piece. Cynicism engenders cynicism. Illogic loves illogic.

    I read a couple of the comments. One said that the current Bull Market will end one day. Really? How brilliant. Another one agreed with the author. About what, may I ask?

    I truly do not know how this type of poppycock gets published at SA. And I truly do not know why I wasted my time reading it or writing this comment. I could have been researching a company, one that I might possibly invest in.

    I’m obviously a bigger idiot than the cynical crowd that dwells on every negative they can possibly dream up — and wonders, "When, oh when, will the Black Swan arrive. We know it’s coming. It's just `around the corner,'" as this author stated "an increasing number of market prognosticators have been saying." Great God, save us from this craziness.

    For investors, let me remind you that cynicism has never gotten anyone anywhere, except into an early grave due to worry and depression.

    Logical people know that they can't concern themselves with events, such as 9-11, that are so improbable they happen once in a generation or less. Reasonable folks know they have to deal with that type of thing as best they can, if it ever does occur. You can't plan for it. You can't worry about it.

    Stick to investing in solid companies that have the ability to survive the tough times (that always come around now and again, most often unannounced) and that are able to thrive during the good times (that always come around now and again, most often unannounced.)

    I remain, the ArtfulDodger
    Aug 15 11:48 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Markets Appear Boring In A Good Way [View article]
    JW:

    Good piece. Nice picture! Liked the first paragraph of your bio; that's enough for me. Education means not one thing to me. What I'm interested in is how well an author writes and reasons.

    I like it that you yourself are an investor, and I like that you respond to your readers, showing them the respect they deserve. I'm going to give you a follow tap.

    You are invested in APA. It's fairly popular now, at 30 X earnings. Would you mind telling me at what price you entered APA? Surely, you would not recommend buying it at this point?

    When you say, "tough choices will have to be made," that sounds like what I've heard every statist say when they wanted to raise my taxes or create new rules/regulations/laws that severely restrict my freedoms and cost me money. Is that what you mean by "tough choices"?

    Thank you for the piece.

    I remain, the ArtfulDodger
    Aug 14 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Wrong To Take A Position In A Stock And Then Write About It On Seeking Alpha? [View article]
    Fellow Investors:

    I have written many times over the years that I like it when authors have a vested interest in the stock they're writing about. It just makes sense that they will be more interested in the results of their tout when they have their money where their tout is.

    Many people, however, for some strange reason, fear those authors may be pumping a stock to dump it. But even if authors don't have vested interests in the stocks they're writing about, they could easily be being paid by someone to pump stocks for the purpose of dumping. In my view, those are cynical and illogical views, because it takes so many shares to move a stock nowadays. And 1) even if everyone on SA read the piece, that's not most likely enough to move the stock price, and 2) it's most likely that most of them won't buy the stock.

    For the life of me I can't understand, other than they're simply cynical people, how people can't understand that authors who're invested in the stock they write about have innate reasons to be more interested in that stock.

    Do you folks not know the records of the non-investing touts at the Big Houses? Why, since I was a kid they've been breaking people. They were responsible for the first real crash I lived through in the `70s, when the Nifty Fifty went down like cheap lard after the Big NY Houses pumped them to the stratosphere.

    One author who does not own stocks he writes about, whom I pointed out to Eli, has made the statement that he writes about stocks then moves on to a new article without so much as another thought about the old article. In other words, give me my money. Damn what happens to the stock I touted. I'm ready to pound another one out.

    This old adage stands in my book: "The greater the quantity, the lesser the quality." Now, notice how many pieces non-investing touts pound out versus those who invest in what they're touting.

    Moreover, I don't care that authors want to use tag names or phony ones. It's not the brightest thing in the world to plaster your name all over the Net. I'm not going to do it, for several reasons, which ought to be obvious.

    I remain, the ArtfulDodger
    Aug 13 03:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Wrong To Take A Position In A Stock And Then Write About It On Seeking Alpha? [View article]
    Ian:

    I agree with you that I want authors to have their money where their mouth is, but I won't completely disregard non-investing touts. But I know from experience that they don't care much what happens to a stock after they tout it, and the reason is they have no vested interest to be.

    Good point. Thanks.

    The ArtfulDodger
    Aug 13 02:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We Think Citigroup Could Outperform This Peer [View article]
    Zorro:

    Very wise decision you're making in my view. I hope it works out for you.

    Love your bio! I would that more people (young and old) had that same attitude about investing and life.

    Thank you for the comment.

    The best to you, the ArtfulDodger
    Aug 12 12:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We Think Citigroup Could Outperform This Peer [View article]
    monmad:

    You can't say it any better. Logical. Accurate. Perfect comment!

    Thanks.

    The best to you and your investing: the ArtfulDodger
    Aug 12 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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