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ArtfulDodger

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  • Santander: Global Retail Bank With Leading Cost Efficiency [View article]
    Junius:

    Excellent work in quantifying and qualifying SAN as a worthwhile investment. You see a lot of quantifying only on SA — yet not much qualifying.

    Thank you for going into the way SAN runs its businesses and the care its management takes to obtain customers and keep them satisfied. Managing their money well is another plus. No way to compare the management of this bank with the vast majority of US banks.

    It's difficult to add the value of this type of management into a stock price, but with SAN it ought to be a premium addition.

    Thank you for the piece. I'm giving you a follow tap.

    Nice bio, too!

    I am, the ArtfulDodger
    Mar 25, 2015. 08:59 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Will Bottom In 3 Weeks: A Comprehensive Analysis Of Domestic Oil Production [View article]
    Fellow Investors (er, should I say Traders, in this respect):

    When I saw the title to this one, I didn't expect much — and that's what I got.

    As someone taught by an old-fashioned grammarian, I had thought the subjunctive mood was truly dead — no more. The next to last paragraph is enough of an example:

    “Should oil rebound” — Oh, okay.
    “[I]f and when crude oil again reaches $60/barrel” — A near 50% increase!
    “I believe that oil may ultimately see higher prices” — Really?

    How can anyone base a trading (much less an investing) plan such thinking?

    And how about this one for a concluding sentence: “Nevertheless, I believe that the peak in oil production will represent a significant psychological inflection point and that crude oil is poised for a rally once production begins to roll over.”

    Now, that is not at all a cliché.

    I would hope that young and novice investors, especially those who attended public schools in the US, will listen to me and not pay any attention to these type of articles.

    Trading is not about predicting prices or the future — no one has ever consistently done that. Trading is about money management.

    I didn't see one shred of that in this piece. Run — don't walk!

    I remain, the ArtfulDodger
    Mar 24, 2015. 08:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Has Santander Struggled To Deliver Consistent Performance? [View article]
    CS:

    You should check out SAN's history a little more, because it's on its common path of buying on the cheap after crashes, changing some of its structure (such as dividends) after the buying is over (now), then building its business internally (just beginning), by honing the new assets it's bought as well as the rest of its business.

    Last, after a year of two, it is generally payoff time for those who build positions when the stock is out of favor, as it now is. However, if you don't think the economies where SAN does business are going to improve and you don't think the company can repeat its prior actions successfully, then you might ought to move on. But let me tell you: over the years SAN has built its equity and its stellar reputation by doing exactly what it is now doing.

    Me, I've been through four similar cycles with SAN. This one is admittedly a slight bit longer than the others, but the company is on its usual track. If I were taking over a company, the first thing I'd do is put in people I know well, that I trust to carry out my plan, and who are capable of doing so.

    Also, SAN is profitable, and it stands to be moreso. The stock price also stands to follow that profitability.

    Your argument for concerning yourself over SAN, CS, is therefore weak.

    Traders might out to move on. Of course, if you're a stock trader it probably doesn't make any difference anyway, because if you want to trade you should be trading futures. No leverage in stock trading. Makes absolutely no sense. Stock traders cannot finish ahead in the end.

    Those who are holding SAN surely know the odds are highly in your favor that the payoff is still a couple of years away — but it's coming.

    I remain, the ArtfulDodger
    Mar 24, 2015. 02:56 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Millennials have the steering wheel now [View news story]
    Friends & Fellow Investors:

    Never would have believed this. Aren't these the people whom the media have told us are so brilliant because they are social media experts, or something like that? I count generations by the culture they have experienced together, and it seems to me that people born from about 1970-1995 have the same (or at least similar) outlook and ideas about the world.

    Too deep for me to think about at this point. I'm off anyway. See you in a few weeks.

    See here: http://bit.ly/1AqCxYu
    Mar 15, 2015. 06:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Santander, N.Y. reach accord over bank account access [View news story]
    Fellow Investors:

    This is the very reason I won't own an American bank: a meddling, controlling government that is determined to use banks as another way to transfer wealth to the parasitic classes. The result, as occurred after the Cash-Credit-Crunch Crash of `08-`09, the wealth of the working classes gets transferred to pay for these sneaky shenanigans.

    This far-left wing-nut nonsense really went into high gear in 1992 when the meddling, transfer-wealth crowd had total control of the government for two years and made the laws that forced lending institutions to create what became known as "sub-prime loans." Yes, indeed, we need another round of what that brought about.

    Why don't banks have the freedom to lend and service and do business with anyone they please? Say what you like, it's pure fascism to force lenders to lend to people they don't want to and to do business with people they don't want to.

    Of course, we have perhaps 150-million people in this nation who don't care whether others are free or not, just so they get what they want for little or nothing.

    I'm not a cynical person, but anyone who looks closely at government actions such as these and what they result in has to admit it's a sad case, and that such actions will most likely cause the nation to repeat the crash and ensuing recession we've just gone through.

    I remain hopeful for all things non-governmental, the ArtfulDodger

    Long SAN averaged in at 6
    Feb 20, 2015. 11:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish On Intel: Fundamental And Algorithmic Analysis Summary [View article]
    Fellow Investors:

    Having commented on INTC articles off and on over the last few years, everyone knows I had been long from under 15.

    So I wanted anyone who may be interested that I sold all my INTC at 36, the reason's being that it was (in my view) priced to perfection. (one of my rules for taking a serious look at whether I want to continue holding a stock or not is when I believe it is priced to perfection)

    That is, every ounce of positive information the (mostly) non-investing touts could conjure up about INTC they have posted over and over and over in one repetitive article after the other.

    When a stock of INTC's size is priced to perfection, it doesn't matter how great its products are or how good the management is — and INTC's, in both respects, are (for the most part) topnotch — because one mistake can poison the whole well.

    On top of that, INTC has (at least) one area that it is losing significant funds, and I can't see that changing anytime soon.

    Worse in my view, something I have pointed out in several past comments, touts who could not stand INTC when it was 20 — all of a sudden love it now that it's in the 30s. In my over 45-year investing experience that stands as an extremely bad sign. Not one that would absolutely make me sell, but combine that with the other things I've pointed out, and I believe it's time to put my few bucks in greener pastures (er, ah, ones not quite as popular as INTC has gotten).

    I do, however, wish all my fellow-investors well with their INTC holdings.

    I remain, the ArtfulDodger

    Note: I am reposting this comment from another thread because I have several SA friends who have a long position in INTC and, after having let them know I was thinking of selling my position, they asked me to let them know if I sold mine.

    I do want to reiterate that I am not claiming to know which way INTC's price is going. I do not have any idea. I simply think for my investing purposes there are better places to put my funds.

    Be well. I will be offline for a while.
    Feb 17, 2015. 09:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Intel Succeed In Tablets? [View article]
    Fellow Investors:

    Having commented on INTC articles off and on over the last few years, everyone knows I had been long from under 15.

    So I wanted anyone who may be interested that I sold all my INTC at 36, the reason's being that it was (in my view) priced to perfection. (one of my rules for taking a serious look at whether I want to continue holding a stock or not is when I believe it is priced to perfection)

    That is, every ounce of positive information the (mostly) non-investing touts could conjure up about INTC they have posted over and over and over in one repetitive article after the other.

    When a stock of INTC's size is priced to perfection, it doesn't matter how great its products are or how good the management is — and INTC's, in both respects, are (for the most part) topnotch — because one mistake can poison the whole well.

    On top of that, INTC has (at least) one area that it is losing significant funds, and I can't see that changing anytime soon.

    Worse in my view, something I pointed out in several past comments, touts who could not stand INTC when it was 20 — all of a sudden love it now that it's in the 30s. In my over 45-year investing experience that stands as an extremely bad sign. Not one that would absolutely make me sell, but combine that with the other things I've pointed out, and I believe it's time to put my few bucks in greener pastures (er, ah, ones not quite as popular as INTC has gotten).

    I do, however, wish all my fellow-investors well with their INTC holdings.

    I remain, the ArtfulDodger
    Feb 16, 2015. 08:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Millennials have the steering wheel now [View news story]
    Good for you, Mac. Glad to hear of someone with enough gumption and grit to break the mold.

    The best to you and your family. You are doing the right thing! Your children will be better off, and so will the nation.

    AD
    Feb 7, 2015. 11:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Santander lifted by heavy profit [View news story]
    Thank you, VC, for the comment and for your work re SAN.

    You are correct, as I stated in my comment: "... as far as I know, the company has never publically described this plan. But it is one that I have observed during the four cycles I have ridden it with SAN. Patient investors who ride along stand to get well paid for their patience."

    At this point I couldn't imagine AB dumping over a hundred years of a 3 Phase strategy that has been amazingly successful. So far, she's going right along the old path. But it could happen. If I see that occurring, I'll do the ole scram-a-roo as fast as a butterfly winks.

    The best to you and your investing: AD
    Feb 4, 2015. 06:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Avangardco: A Strong Egg Producer With A Strategic Edge [View article]
    BG:

    I have to give you credit for finding silver needles in rusty haystacks.

    Thank you for the work.

    AD
    Feb 4, 2015. 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Navios Maritime Partners Throws Shareholders A Life Raft [View article]
    Fellow Investors:

    Good management. Best balance sheet in the business. Good business. News not nearly as bad as the cynical media have reported.

    Long NMM at 12.

    I am, the ArtfulDodger
    Feb 4, 2015. 04:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Santander lifted by heavy profit [View news story]
    Fellow SAN Investors:

    SAN has obviously made its usual move from being a very active acquisitor after downturns, toward focusing on internal growth.

    Historically, this has been the Second Phase of SAN's normal post-crash plan, the first of which is to load up on cheap (but valuable) assets during and after crashes, to growing its profits internally (2nd Phase), and the last, to sit back and reap the value throughout the next boom, which always comes and is the Third Phase. During the Third Phase SAN typically dumps weak or non-performing assets, making them cash fat when the next decline comes — and it will come, as it always does.

    Let me note that, as far as I know, the company has never publically described this plan. But it is one that I have observed during the four cycles I have ridden it with SAN. Patient investors who ride along stand to get well paid for their patience.

    Sometime during the 3rd Phase is also the time for investors who have built a position in SAN to take their profits. However, I would not dare to predict or guess when that will be. In the meanwhile, SAN investors can be happy that the company's plan is moving along as it historically has, albeit over a longer period of time due to the sharpness of the Cash-Credit-Crunch Crash of `09.

    Though she would not rule out another acquisition, especially in Portugal where prices are still depressed, here is part of what Ana-Botin stated in that respect, in answer to a question regarding whether SAN would continue its buying spree.

    “We don’t have this (add-on acquisitions] as a priority at the moment. Our priority will be organic growth... But there are some examples, for example, Portugal, we are looking at something...” (Ana Botín-Sanz de Sautuola y O’Shea; Chairman and Executive Director of Banco Santander [SAN])

    The best to all SAN investors: the ArtfulDodger
    Feb 3, 2015. 06:34 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whatever You Do, Don't Sell Qualcomm - Instead, Buy This Cash Machine [View article]
    Good points, Steve. Thank you for the comment. Good moves on your `95 buys.

    Correct that you sell when a stock gets out of line with your portfolio. That's proper money management, which you don't often see mentioned around SA and similar sites, but it is one of the more important keys to successful investing.

    Thanks again. Very worthwhile comment.

    The best to you and your investing.

    I remain, the ArtfulDodger
    Feb 2, 2015. 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Review: Time To Yahoo [View article]
    West:

    Not many positive pieces on YHOO. Glad to see yours, and not mainly because I agree with your conclusions, but because you are correct about the valuations you mention.

    Thank you for the piece. May I ask, Why are you not invested in YHOO?

    Long YHOO at 32

    I am, the ArtfulDodger
    Feb 2, 2015. 05:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whatever You Do, Don't Sell Qualcomm - Instead, Buy This Cash Machine [View article]
    BC:

    Glad to see you're going to buy the stock you're touting. Please let us know when you do.

    I'm giving you a follow tap. Thanks for the piece.

    I am, the ArtfulDodger
    Feb 1, 2015. 03:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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