ArtfulDodger

Dispelling Myths About the Stock Market and Precious Metals

I keep telling all the sages who claim to be able to pick the direction of markets over the short term to open a futures trading account. They can make more than Buffett ever dreamed of having---if they can actually pick market direction accurately.

No one so far has done so. But still, everyday another article telling us the direction of markets over the next month, week, or even the next day.

I mean I wouldn't give you two cents for volume, the Vix, the average price or anything of the type.

Find me a good company with good management, good products, good margins, with growth potential---and I'll give it a chance with my little investment.

To hell with trying to figure the machinations of market direction; it's a worthless endeavor, as far as I'm concerned.

Dr. Stephen Leeb on Commodities and Inflation - Is He a Genius or Alarmist?

A worthwhile critique—pointing out the reasonable and the extreme and then using both ends to invest. Very good work, LB.

Thank you much!

Is It Time to Buy? What History Shows

Mr. Mickey:

Good overall analysis. Thank you for your work.

There's far too much talk about bottoms and how long this downturn will last. How about some talk about great companies selling on the cheap.

If you think their earnings are too high now and will be cut later, discount them 15% and work from there. That's what I've been doing for forty years in down markets and economies, and it works, because it puts you in stocks that have a lower downside risk than most.

Companies with great balance sheets and great products and great management will come booming out on top of the current mess.

Forget about bottoms and such nonsense; testing lows and other busted-out terms.

If you have the money available to invest, put it to work and forget about the ups and downs and one-day news events that the 24-hour financial media pump up as important. Most are not, especially over the next year to 18 months.

By this time you can rest asssured that most every bit of bad news is priced into stocks. Oh yes, there will be some surprises, and traders will jump and hop and holler and scream; but a day or two later a new boondoggle will be riding the horizon as hard or harder than the last one. And on and on and she goes as long as the media are negative and economic numbers can be searched out to be bad.

But the management of good companies with plenty of cash and little to no debt will march right ahead building their product lines, cutting out the deadwood, building out where they need to when things are cheap — in full anticipation of the boom to come.

It's a law, you know: the bigger the boom the bigger the bust, and vice versa.

Nokia (NOK), Cisco (CSCO), CF Industries (CF), France Telecom (FTE), Huaneng Power (HNG), Pfizer (PFE), 3M (MMM), Statiolhydro (STO), Taiwan Semi (TSM), Frontline LTD (FRO), & United Tech (UTX) are just a few of the reasonably priced great companies that will come out of this downturn in better shape than their competitors.

I own these. And I believe they can weather the hell fire the world is going through and when it's over be sitting in even better positions than they were when the match was first lit that has scorched our financial world.

This ought to be a good enough spread of companies that the wild-eyed Obama's leftist programs can't get to the lot of them. I hope!