OJO Zafado's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/159489/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/83066-fifth-third-bank-drink-deeply-of-the-poison?source=feed#comment-195165 195165 Sun, 29 Jun 2008 11:03:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83035-high-yield-canadian-royalty-trusts-what-s-the-catch?source=feed#comment-194735 194735 Warren Buffet thinking is how I ended up buying Acadian Timber the day after the Halloween massacre for less than US $8. There is no magic in yield when an asset class is beaten down. The trusts that participate get beaten down too, to a point. The thing with natural resource trusts is that they still have the resource even in a down market. Look what happened with Grand Cache Coal. Not a trust but some drastically undervalued resources! I do not think the other forestry trusts like CFX and TWF are in much danger of cratering. TWF is a weak one alright but now they are evolving into real estate development. Trees continue to grow larger while harvests are reduced. The assets become more valuable even as the price of the trusts decline. After making it's lows CFX has been standing like Stonewall and his Virginians at +/-$11.50. The dividend has been cut from 16 cents to 12 cents and still there is a 12% return there. Within 18 months of the closing ceremonies in Bejing the 2010 Vancouver Winter Olympic games will kick off . I think there will be enough of a mini boom to support both of those BC based trusts. In the natural resource arena there will always be a demand for ever more computer and toilet paper even if the newsprint business is falling off. The advent of OSB and now wood pellets for home heating means there is an evolution going on in forestry products that should bring "waste by product" down to near zero. The globalization of the world still relys on the lowly wooden shipping pallet as it's foundation. Now we see Atlantic Power falling victim to the utility weakness and high fuel costs. ATP may be a great buying opportunity at this price. As a stapled unit it is particularly advantageous for tax sheltered accounts for US holders. These seem not to be as dangerous for their 10-12% yields as say the recently issued C-PrM, which is just dropping like a rock while yielding over 9%. Your observation on oil prices is correct. Yet there seems little likely hood that oil will collapse. The world's largest economy is just a dead duck with an impending currency crisis. On average more than $50 billion US dollar equivalents are invested from abroad every month in the US. The trade deficits are rising as well as the national debt and current account deficits. When this money drys up or diminishes significantly it will be the intrinsic value natural resource assets that will hold up. If they pay dividends in foreign currencies they will fare even better. There were the tax stimulus rebates, and then the Bear Stearns bailout. Now the US economic policy makers are sitting back in Shock and Awe, as the world markets are correctly perceiving that as far as the US dollar and economy go, the genie is out of the bottle. This has not stopped me from lightening up just a little in BTE! Another Canroy trust "fund" that I find interesting is KYE. In addition to Canroys they own a whole diverse group of MLPs as well as US energy trusts. The +7% dividend is pretty solid. I appreciate your input and opinion on Risk=Reward. Still even in the Halloween massacre very very few lost "everything". Owning Canroys can have a lot of risks in terms of currency, weather, economic conditions, uncertain tax policy, backwardation and contango, etc. I would not be buying the Swiss Water Decaffeinated Coffee Income Fund any time soon. But an ice maker like the Arctic Glacier Income Fund may be good bet on a long hot summer with the thermostats on those air conditioners getting turned up? If Zimbabwe is the model for the future of South Africa then all things natural resource related in either Canada, Austrailia, Brazil or Russia will be going to higher intrinsic valuations in the medium term.]]> Sat, 28 Jun 2008 10:49:08 -0400 Warren Buffet thinking is how I ended up buying Acadian Timber the day after the Halloween massacre for less than US $8. There is no magic in yield when an asset class is beaten down. The trusts that participate get beaten down too, to a point. The thing with natural resource trusts is that they still have the resource even in a down market. Look what happened with Grand Cache Coal. Not a trust but some drastically undervalued resources! I do not think the other forestry trusts like CFX and TWF are in much danger of cratering. TWF is a weak one alright but now they are evolving into real estate development. Trees continue to grow larger while harvests are reduced. The assets become more valuable even as the price of the trusts decline. After making it's lows CFX has been standing like Stonewall and his Virginians at +/-$11.50. The dividend has been cut from 16 cents to 12 cents and still there is a 12% return there. Within 18 months of the closing ceremonies in Bejing the 2010 Vancouver Winter Olympic games will kick off . I think there will be enough of a mini boom to support both of those BC based trusts. In the natural resource arena there will always be a demand for ever more computer and toilet paper even if the newsprint business is falling off. The advent of OSB and now wood pellets for home heating means there is an evolution going on in forestry products that should bring "waste by product" down to near zero. The globalization of the world still relys on the lowly wooden shipping pallet as it's foundation. Now we see Atlantic Power falling victim to the utility weakness and high fuel costs. ATP may be a great buying opportunity at this price. As a stapled unit it is particularly advantageous for tax sheltered accounts for US holders. These seem not to be as dangerous for their 10-12% yields as say the recently issued C-PrM, which is just dropping like a rock while yielding over 9%. Your observation on oil prices is correct. Yet there seems little likely hood that oil will collapse. The world's largest economy is just a dead duck with an impending currency crisis. On average more than $50 billion US dollar equivalents are invested from abroad every month in the US. The trade deficits are rising as well as the national debt and current account deficits. When this money drys up or diminishes significantly it will be the intrinsic value natural resource assets that will hold up. If they pay dividends in foreign currencies they will fare even better. There were the tax stimulus rebates, and then the Bear Stearns bailout. Now the US economic policy makers are sitting back in Shock and Awe, as the world markets are correctly perceiving that as far as the US dollar and economy go, the genie is out of the bottle. This has not stopped me from lightening up just a little in BTE! Another Canroy trust "fund" that I find interesting is KYE. In addition to Canroys they own a whole diverse group of MLPs as well as US energy trusts. The +7% dividend is pretty solid. I appreciate your input and opinion on Risk=Reward. Still even in the Halloween massacre very very few lost "everything". Owning Canroys can have a lot of risks in terms of currency, weather, economic conditions, uncertain tax policy, backwardation and contango, etc. I would not be buying the Swiss Water Decaffeinated Coffee Income Fund any time soon. But an ice maker like the Arctic Glacier Income Fund may be good bet on a long hot summer with the thermostats on those air conditioners getting turned up? If Zimbabwe is the model for the future of South Africa then all things natural resource related in either Canada, Austrailia, Brazil or Russia will be going to higher intrinsic valuations in the medium term.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83008-three-cefs-offering-assets-on-the-cheap?source=feed#comment-194609 194609 Sat, 28 Jun 2008 01:56:05 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83035-high-yield-canadian-royalty-trusts-what-s-the-catch?source=feed#comment-194606 194606 Your XTR post is quite interesting. As near as I can tell it pays divs out quarterly rather than monthly. Is that correct? Your observation that it has done quite well as of late is true, looking at a chart. The problem I find is that doing the math with data I am able to conjure up from online resources, the dividend yield now seems to have dropped below 7%. A nice pop in the price seems to have resulted in a lower current payout on the % basis. This ETF trades very thinly on the US Pinks as ISHAF . I had a nice gain in ENY a US sponsered ETF that invested in Canadian oil sands and O&G trusts on some rotational basis tied to the price of crude. It paid no dividend at all but for it's Dec distribution. I have owned the EIT.UN or EVDVF if you will for some time. It seems to me it is basically the same product as XTR, with a fund manager doing the Cherry picking. The yield is significantly higher it appears than that of XTR/ISHAF and is paid monthly. While not steady in price it seems to present buying opportunities below the $5.90 level quite often while swinging occasionally into the +$6.15 range. The yield in this price range has consistently been 12-14%. That's net 12% even for US residents, even those who hold it in a tax sheltered account and lose the Foreign tax credit. As far as cherry picking goes I am up 40% in ATBUF Acadian Timber trust. We did a little better in selling 4 partial positions of FDG Fording Coal into it's recent ramp to the sky. While I own all the trusts mentioned by the author, with the Exception of ERF, I am considering a new position in it as they have now sold the dragging oil sands business. I had previously owned it a couple of times and done reasonably well with it as well. I have recently added to PVX and PGH on dips. One point no one blogging here seems to have touched on is how the 2011 tax change will actually benefit US unit holders of CanRoy Trusts in tax sheltered accounts, under the current tax treaty. There are always the unintended consequences of these things. It could be that there will be a rush by US financial planners to put their tax sheltered clients into these trust units on the very eve of the much gloom and doom advent of the new taxable structures of these Trusts. There will be the tax pools sustaining pay outs and the entire distribution will be relieved of the 15% US with holding. ]]> Sat, 28 Jun 2008 01:23:59 -0400 Your XTR post is quite interesting. As near as I can tell it pays divs out quarterly rather than monthly. Is that correct? Your observation that it has done quite well as of late is true, looking at a chart. The problem I find is that doing the math with data I am able to conjure up from online resources, the dividend yield now seems to have dropped below 7%. A nice pop in the price seems to have resulted in a lower current payout on the % basis. This ETF trades very thinly on the US Pinks as ISHAF . I had a nice gain in ENY a US sponsered ETF that invested in Canadian oil sands and O&G trusts on some rotational basis tied to the price of crude. It paid no dividend at all but for it's Dec distribution. I have owned the EIT.UN or EVDVF if you will for some time. It seems to me it is basically the same product as XTR, with a fund manager doing the Cherry picking. The yield is significantly higher it appears than that of XTR/ISHAF and is paid monthly. While not steady in price it seems to present buying opportunities below the $5.90 level quite often while swinging occasionally into the +$6.15 range. The yield in this price range has consistently been 12-14%. That's net 12% even for US residents, even those who hold it in a tax sheltered account and lose the Foreign tax credit. As far as cherry picking goes I am up 40% in ATBUF Acadian Timber trust. We did a little better in selling 4 partial positions of FDG Fording Coal into it's recent ramp to the sky. While I own all the trusts mentioned by the author, with the Exception of ERF, I am considering a new position in it as they have now sold the dragging oil sands business. I had previously owned it a couple of times and done reasonably well with it as well. I have recently added to PVX and PGH on dips. One point no one blogging here seems to have touched on is how the 2011 tax change will actually benefit US unit holders of CanRoy Trusts in tax sheltered accounts, under the current tax treaty. There are always the unintended consequences of these things. It could be that there will be a rush by US financial planners to put their tax sheltered clients into these trust units on the very eve of the much gloom and doom advent of the new taxable structures of these Trusts. There will be the tax pools sustaining pay outs and the entire distribution will be relieved of the 15% US with holding. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82734-investor-interest-fuels-platinum-group-metals-higher?source=feed#comment-193060 193060 Thu, 26 Jun 2008 07:09:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/82224-something-is-brewing-at-oilsands-quest-beyond-cramer-s-endorsement?source=feed#comment-190646 190646 Last Oct GACHF was a $1.35/share stock. Listening to Cramer you would have been out of that position at $3-$4. Now it is +/-$10? The pigs finally had their day and got a Presidential pardon? Too often a Cramer endorsement is just a kiss of death! Cendant, Montpelier Re and some paint manufacturer with lead paint exposure are just a few of his bombs.]]> Mon, 23 Jun 2008 02:43:46 -0400 Last Oct GACHF was a $1.35/share stock. Listening to Cramer you would have been out of that position at $3-$4. Now it is +/-$10? The pigs finally had their day and got a Presidential pardon? Too often a Cramer endorsement is just a kiss of death! Cendant, Montpelier Re and some paint manufacturer with lead paint exposure are just a few of his bombs.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82101-banks-are-failing-so-they-are-changing-the-rules?source=feed#comment-190635 190635 Mon, 23 Jun 2008 01:39:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81883-fifth-third-clobbered-in-capital-raising-plan?source=feed#comment-188256 188256 Thu, 19 Jun 2008 07:19:05 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81884-wachovia-still-does-not-understand-pay-option-arm-risk?source=feed#comment-188193 188193 Thu, 19 Jun 2008 01:58:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81735-timberwest-forest-real-estate-vs-timber?source=feed#comment-187781 187781 Wed, 18 Jun 2008 12:37:02 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81358-timber-shake-the-money-tree?source=feed#comment-186891 186891 Tue, 17 Jun 2008 05:49:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81164-bernanke-s-statements-blatant-lies-or-wishful-thinking?source=feed#comment-186882 186882 ` The US makes up about 5% of the worlds population and currently uses about 26% of current world oil production. Based on what has happened in Mexico and Russia where declines in production have occurred and what seems to be the inability of OPEC to SIGNIFICANTLY increase production there is less oil production for more demand. This is of course unsustainable long term. Marginally increasing domestic production will not off set the unsustainable nature of the US's oil consumption. The ANWAR is oil that we will eventually get but by then other oil wells will have peaked. The real problem with the US oil crisis is that the oil is a non replaceable resource with real intrinsic value. The US dollar on the other hand is no longer a paper fiat currency. Paper has been replaced by "electronic funds" transfer. A hundred billion here in TFAs and few hundred billion there in TRCAs, a few hundred billion to replace the money not raised by taxes to pay for Medicare and SS. Hundreds of billions shipped overseas to stock the shelves of Wal-Mart and supply the refineries of Exxon-Mobil. Hey might as well throw in a few trillion for "liberating" IRAQ. America has created a worldwide credit crisis and huge world inflation by flooding the world with their paper/electronic money. The solution is an obvious one and will not come about until thousands are dying of heat exhaustion and hypothermia here in the US. Nuclear power is coming back and big time. In the meantime coal fired power will bridge the gap. The only technical challenge then will be to the transportation segment of our economy. As long as the nation clings to the idea that more domestic production of oil is a solution when it is no long term solution at all then things will just get worse for our economy and the valuation of a US dollar. Ben the Dollar Slayer will eventually go away and resign in disgrace just as so many of his CEO buddies at the worlds major banks have fallen on their swords. It is hard to predict when the nation will be ready for more reality and less O'Reilly. Dummya and his band of henchman can indeed proclaim, "Mission Accomplished!!!". Globalization is now a reality . Dozens of US companies and thousands of US citizens now have great viable businesses and jobs while hundreds of businesses and hundreds of thousands of decent jobs have been eliminated. We have created the greatest concentration of wealth in the last 100 years. It is the same old story for the Republican Party. Be careful what you wish for...]]> Tue, 17 Jun 2008 05:04:02 -0400 ` The US makes up about 5% of the worlds population and currently uses about 26% of current world oil production. Based on what has happened in Mexico and Russia where declines in production have occurred and what seems to be the inability of OPEC to SIGNIFICANTLY increase production there is less oil production for more demand. This is of course unsustainable long term. Marginally increasing domestic production will not off set the unsustainable nature of the US's oil consumption. The ANWAR is oil that we will eventually get but by then other oil wells will have peaked. The real problem with the US oil crisis is that the oil is a non replaceable resource with real intrinsic value. The US dollar on the other hand is no longer a paper fiat currency. Paper has been replaced by "electronic funds" transfer. A hundred billion here in TFAs and few hundred billion there in TRCAs, a few hundred billion to replace the money not raised by taxes to pay for Medicare and SS. Hundreds of billions shipped overseas to stock the shelves of Wal-Mart and supply the refineries of Exxon-Mobil. Hey might as well throw in a few trillion for "liberating" IRAQ. America has created a worldwide credit crisis and huge world inflation by flooding the world with their paper/electronic money. The solution is an obvious one and will not come about until thousands are dying of heat exhaustion and hypothermia here in the US. Nuclear power is coming back and big time. In the meantime coal fired power will bridge the gap. The only technical challenge then will be to the transportation segment of our economy. As long as the nation clings to the idea that more domestic production of oil is a solution when it is no long term solution at all then things will just get worse for our economy and the valuation of a US dollar. Ben the Dollar Slayer will eventually go away and resign in disgrace just as so many of his CEO buddies at the worlds major banks have fallen on their swords. It is hard to predict when the nation will be ready for more reality and less O'Reilly. Dummya and his band of henchman can indeed proclaim, "Mission Accomplished!!!". Globalization is now a reality . Dozens of US companies and thousands of US citizens now have great viable businesses and jobs while hundreds of businesses and hundreds of thousands of decent jobs have been eliminated. We have created the greatest concentration of wealth in the last 100 years. It is the same old story for the Republican Party. Be careful what you wish for...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80990-nixing-onyx-cramer-s-lightning-round-6-11-08?source=feed#comment-183908 183908 Thu, 12 Jun 2008 04:13:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80693-an-overview-of-the-global-shipping-industry?source=feed#comment-182393 182393 Tue, 10 Jun 2008 09:17:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80553-the-second-wave-of-bank-troubles?source=feed#comment-181977 181977
Does any one have an opinion of the ETF PGF? Starting to look like a dollar cost averaging candidate.]]> Mon, 09 Jun 2008 14:23:53 -0400
Does any one have an opinion of the ETF PGF? Starting to look like a dollar cost averaging candidate.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80553-the-second-wave-of-bank-troubles?source=feed#comment-181974 181974 Mon, 09 Jun 2008 14:20:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80553-the-second-wave-of-bank-troubles?source=feed#comment-181772 181772 BAC) and USB-PE. How these banks can still sell CDs at what they are paying with 100% tax liability when stuff like the FNM-PP is out there paying +6.25% inflation protected at the 15% preferred tax rate on dividends is the math I don't get?]]> Mon, 09 Jun 2008 08:39:30 -0400 BAC) and USB-PE. How these banks can still sell CDs at what they are paying with 100% tax liability when stuff like the FNM-PP is out there paying +6.25% inflation protected at the 15% preferred tax rate on dividends is the math I don't get?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80182-global-investing-hitting-a-bric-wall?source=feed#comment-181408 181408 Sun, 08 Jun 2008 14:34:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80182-global-investing-hitting-a-bric-wall?source=feed#comment-181399 181399 Sun, 08 Jun 2008 14:24:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80536-125-oil-not-sustainable-for-the-time-being?source=feed#comment-181376 181376 Sun, 08 Jun 2008 13:51:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80369-baytex-energy-raises-cash-distribution-stock-jumps?source=feed#comment-181347 181347 Sun, 08 Jun 2008 13:12:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79362-banking-sector-buy-when-there-s-blood-in-the-streets?source=feed#comment-176475 176475 Fri, 30 May 2008 01:11:05 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79383-now-shortages-of-natural-gas?source=feed#comment-176466 176466 Fri, 30 May 2008 00:18:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79245-charge-offs-hammer-banks?source=feed#comment-175759 175759 BAC) FBF-N standing it's ground nicely at ~$21.50. The MJH has not done that well over the last week but has not been crushed either. The BAC-E has been beaten down but will likely move higher as the rate adjusts thru the gap, to the new higher interest rates. The WB S was stubbornly trading above par until it came in the last couple days. It is true that there is huge dilution going on in the common shares of these banks. Still the quality of the subordinated debt of the 4 largest banks seems quite good. Most common shareholders do not fully comprehend what is being done to them! The banks have even been issuing converts. Selling the common share holders on the idea that this is married to the stock performance. That may be but if the stock goes nowhere the convert preferreds still get the 8% which takes away cash resources to support the common dividends. Without dividend increases the common will underperform the market. I own no WB preferreds but do own preferreds of the other 4 majors as well as Morgan Stanley,USB,TWC ,AES, FNM and Goldman Sachs. The spread between the yields on med/long term similiar quality corporate bonds is so huge as to make barbelling out at these +7.5% yields worthwhile. Especially with stuff like FBF-N and HJJ with near term call dates where calls are likely to be made for a 3-4 point gain. I also own a position in the DXSKX as a hedge against what went on the last few days in the bond market. You could do a less restrictive trade in the ETF PST. The time is not that far off now when 4-7 year maturity corporate bonds will be worth buying for a bond ladder once again. In the meantime every market dislocation brings opportunity. With the GSE FNM-P yielding an adj +6% and 15% tax qualified, why buy much lower yielding bonds that are not tax qualified unless for a tax sheltered acct? FNM-P has also been performing fairly well recently. I agree with the author and would steer clear of both MER and WB as well as Lehman. The C on the other hand has a large global platform that ultimately will return it to profitability. Not before Meredith Whitney's prediction that the common dividend will be eliminated. That may indeed be the time to add some more C preferreds. FITB seems perhaps a little stronger than might be indicated. It is just not in a part of the country that seems likely to have the strongest rebound if indeed theree is an up turn in the economy in 09. The slime continues to creep!]]> Thu, 29 May 2008 04:24:01 -0400 BAC) FBF-N standing it's ground nicely at ~$21.50. The MJH has not done that well over the last week but has not been crushed either. The BAC-E has been beaten down but will likely move higher as the rate adjusts thru the gap, to the new higher interest rates. The WB S was stubbornly trading above par until it came in the last couple days. It is true that there is huge dilution going on in the common shares of these banks. Still the quality of the subordinated debt of the 4 largest banks seems quite good. Most common shareholders do not fully comprehend what is being done to them! The banks have even been issuing converts. Selling the common share holders on the idea that this is married to the stock performance. That may be but if the stock goes nowhere the convert preferreds still get the 8% which takes away cash resources to support the common dividends. Without dividend increases the common will underperform the market. I own no WB preferreds but do own preferreds of the other 4 majors as well as Morgan Stanley,USB,TWC ,AES, FNM and Goldman Sachs. The spread between the yields on med/long term similiar quality corporate bonds is so huge as to make barbelling out at these +7.5% yields worthwhile. Especially with stuff like FBF-N and HJJ with near term call dates where calls are likely to be made for a 3-4 point gain. I also own a position in the DXSKX as a hedge against what went on the last few days in the bond market. You could do a less restrictive trade in the ETF PST. The time is not that far off now when 4-7 year maturity corporate bonds will be worth buying for a bond ladder once again. In the meantime every market dislocation brings opportunity. With the GSE FNM-P yielding an adj +6% and 15% tax qualified, why buy much lower yielding bonds that are not tax qualified unless for a tax sheltered acct? FNM-P has also been performing fairly well recently. I agree with the author and would steer clear of both MER and WB as well as Lehman. The C on the other hand has a large global platform that ultimately will return it to profitability. Not before Meredith Whitney's prediction that the common dividend will be eliminated. That may indeed be the time to add some more C preferreds. FITB seems perhaps a little stronger than might be indicated. It is just not in a part of the country that seems likely to have the strongest rebound if indeed theree is an up turn in the economy in 09. The slime continues to creep!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78538-roy-nersesian-sees-the-perfect-storm?source=feed#comment-173861 173861 Mon, 26 May 2008 01:59:05 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/78610-the-case-for-1300-oz-gold?source=feed#comment-173467 173467 Sun, 25 May 2008 09:50:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/78610-the-case-for-1300-oz-gold?source=feed#comment-173438 173438 S)He will just be the next leader of the "Free Money World". A few billion in aid to Egypt so they can subsidise their gasoline at less than 1/3 what we pay. A few hundred billion each month in TRCAs and TFAs to keep the free money flowing. We might as well elect "ALF" "Hey!!!, No problem!!!!" as President. Of course this spells the eventual doom of Ben as he will no doubt at some point be exposed as a "Dummya" Toady and resign in disgrace over the whole dollar and economic situation spiralling out of control. His will be a very sincere heartfelt apology to the American people. Five percent dividends will not cut the mustard when we find the 4 major banks still floating out new tax advantaged subordinated debt paper at +8% and paying less than 4% on one year Cds that are 100% taxable. FNM-PRP 6.3% tax advantaged ADJUSTABLE! rate. Even the GSEs are up against it! The math no longer works in America! Calculus is something that forms on teeth and Statistics is what they use to calculate bridge girder specifications! The only thing left to do is to replace the Criminal Jackson on the $20 bill, with Ron Reagan! "Social security is a sacred trust between the American people and their Government". A beautiful piece of wordsmithing, legitimizing the nation's sense of entitlement and the tyranny of the old!]]> Sun, 25 May 2008 08:52:48 -0400 S)He will just be the next leader of the "Free Money World". A few billion in aid to Egypt so they can subsidise their gasoline at less than 1/3 what we pay. A few hundred billion each month in TRCAs and TFAs to keep the free money flowing. We might as well elect "ALF" "Hey!!!, No problem!!!!" as President. Of course this spells the eventual doom of Ben as he will no doubt at some point be exposed as a "Dummya" Toady and resign in disgrace over the whole dollar and economic situation spiralling out of control. His will be a very sincere heartfelt apology to the American people. Five percent dividends will not cut the mustard when we find the 4 major banks still floating out new tax advantaged subordinated debt paper at +8% and paying less than 4% on one year Cds that are 100% taxable. FNM-PRP 6.3% tax advantaged ADJUSTABLE! rate. Even the GSEs are up against it! The math no longer works in America! Calculus is something that forms on teeth and Statistics is what they use to calculate bridge girder specifications! The only thing left to do is to replace the Criminal Jackson on the $20 bill, with Ron Reagan! "Social security is a sacred trust between the American people and their Government". A beautiful piece of wordsmithing, legitimizing the nation's sense of entitlement and the tyranny of the old!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78235-bank-of-america-better-than-treasuries?source=feed#comment-171131 171131 `
I do not own Tech except in a couple of mutual funds. Those funds are lightened up in these Jan effect through the Sell in May periods. I would not own Dell at all. WB is an aggregious example of how the "suits " in the board room have absolutely no reguard for common share holders. Management looks upon them as equity to be sold and sold out. For this reason I own BAC,JPM,C,&GS preferreds as an alternative to their bonds that now are grossly overvalued in terms of inflation risk both short and long term. I do not own any WB-PrS an example of this +8% insanity we are seeing in terms of these financials continuing to float out more and more debt securities at ever higher returns. Perhaps the benchmark for knowing when this credit/liquidity crisis is comming to an end will be when these commercial banks and Brokerage groups start floating out preferreds at lower not higher rates. The US Dollar is toast The only hope we have is for one of the remaining three stooges left in contention for the next leader of the Free Money World to even have a desire to turn things around. Watch the monthly TIC. If we get 2 more consecutive net declines or net loss of cash flows in then it will just pile on the dollar weakness. I agree that WB is crap as compared to BAC but that does not stop their common shareholders from posting on their Yahoo message board their contentions that the two companies are basically the same business model with the same fiscal soundness. As one of today's preferred owners of BAC I do not see any scenario where I would be converted into common shares. It is my expectation to get their stated dividends without the vagaries of their quarterly results impacting the payouts. I expect that some of my shares wil be redeemed at par at some point, at which time I will look at some other income play/opportunities. When my RBS-G was called in several years past the call date, I was able to find some great values in beaten down Canadian Coal, O&G trusts. Eventually the Ten year will get back to +/- 6% . There may be an opportunity to return to the Med term bond market for real risk and inflation adjusted returns. Ben the Dollar Slayer has let the genie out of the bottle and left himself with an empty 6 shooter. Two weeks ago Ben increased the TRCA from $75 Billion to $100 Billion to the ECB and SNB. That was followed by 3 more major European Banks reporting a combined +10 Billion in write downs the following Monday! The BOE is now sniffing around for a "little loan" as well from Ben to tide them over as they embark on a rate cutting campaign of their own in response to a weakening (world) economy. Not half so happy to have destroyed the US dollar and economy, the Dollar Slayer feels that as misery loves company it is now in his job description to export inflation world wide! I do not see how any of these issues supports the managements of the financials in permitting them to stand by their common shareholders. They are in the buisiness of saving their businesses not holding hands with bank share speculators. Speaking of the RBS they recently offered their common shareholders a rights offering for a common new issuance at a discounted price to raise equity. That is what constitutes having some concern for your common shareholders. Floating out 8% preferreds just fully dilutes them.

Eso, Timoteo Del Ojo Zafado]]> Wed, 21 May 2008 12:30:50 -0400 `
I do not own Tech except in a couple of mutual funds. Those funds are lightened up in these Jan effect through the Sell in May periods. I would not own Dell at all. WB is an aggregious example of how the "suits " in the board room have absolutely no reguard for common share holders. Management looks upon them as equity to be sold and sold out. For this reason I own BAC,JPM,C,&GS preferreds as an alternative to their bonds that now are grossly overvalued in terms of inflation risk both short and long term. I do not own any WB-PrS an example of this +8% insanity we are seeing in terms of these financials continuing to float out more and more debt securities at ever higher returns. Perhaps the benchmark for knowing when this credit/liquidity crisis is comming to an end will be when these commercial banks and Brokerage groups start floating out preferreds at lower not higher rates. The US Dollar is toast The only hope we have is for one of the remaining three stooges left in contention for the next leader of the Free Money World to even have a desire to turn things around. Watch the monthly TIC. If we get 2 more consecutive net declines or net loss of cash flows in then it will just pile on the dollar weakness. I agree that WB is crap as compared to BAC but that does not stop their common shareholders from posting on their Yahoo message board their contentions that the two companies are basically the same business model with the same fiscal soundness. As one of today's preferred owners of BAC I do not see any scenario where I would be converted into common shares. It is my expectation to get their stated dividends without the vagaries of their quarterly results impacting the payouts. I expect that some of my shares wil be redeemed at par at some point, at which time I will look at some other income play/opportunities. When my RBS-G was called in several years past the call date, I was able to find some great values in beaten down Canadian Coal, O&G trusts. Eventually the Ten year will get back to +/- 6% . There may be an opportunity to return to the Med term bond market for real risk and inflation adjusted returns. Ben the Dollar Slayer has let the genie out of the bottle and left himself with an empty 6 shooter. Two weeks ago Ben increased the TRCA from $75 Billion to $100 Billion to the ECB and SNB. That was followed by 3 more major European Banks reporting a combined +10 Billion in write downs the following Monday! The BOE is now sniffing around for a "little loan" as well from Ben to tide them over as they embark on a rate cutting campaign of their own in response to a weakening (world) economy. Not half so happy to have destroyed the US dollar and economy, the Dollar Slayer feels that as misery loves company it is now in his job description to export inflation world wide! I do not see how any of these issues supports the managements of the financials in permitting them to stand by their common shareholders. They are in the buisiness of saving their businesses not holding hands with bank share speculators. Speaking of the RBS they recently offered their common shareholders a rights offering for a common new issuance at a discounted price to raise equity. That is what constitutes having some concern for your common shareholders. Floating out 8% preferreds just fully dilutes them.

Eso, Timoteo Del Ojo Zafado]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78235-bank-of-america-better-than-treasuries?source=feed#comment-170941 170941 Wed, 21 May 2008 08:38:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/77543-what-s-behind-the-market-s-rise?source=feed#comment-169187 169187 Fri, 16 May 2008 22:54:08 -0400