OJO Zafado

The Case for $1300/Oz Gold

For trading the Yuan/Renminbi there is the recently available CNY & CYB of Wisdom Tree . Cover Your Butt! A chart of EVDVF shows broadly diverse generous dividend paying Canadian play, with perhaps some overhanging tax issues. Canada is of course like Australia & Mexico a part of the BRIC juniors. With the Loonie again over par and their economy sporting a thining $3 billion current accounts surplus, you can get some decent total return on the China currency appreciating. Any country like Canada, Mexico, Brazil, or Australia are good surrogets for the Renminbi as they are beneficiaries of the continuing rise in value of hard assets. They also have currency Etfs. FXC, FXM, BZF,& FXA respectively. As one other poster noted fleeing the US dollar may be warranted on the basis of holding value in your investments. The Oligharcy has unwittingly duped themselves. The Globalization they so ferverently advocated has now resulted in the unitizing of "value". Anyone with $500 to open a Scottrade account can now switch their savings out of the US dollar with a couple key strokes. This is no different than the Fed giving up the printing of money in favor of xferring a $100 billion of electronic created money to major European Banks through a one month TRCA. We now see the Congress trying to thwart this action into ETFs like USO,USG, UHN, IEO etc with legislation to curb/ limit futures trading. That one issue should be enough to scare investors out of the dollar. Even the Dow global Titans are losing ground as even their global businesses are not enough to over come Stagflation!

The Case for $1300/Oz Gold

As far as naysayers go , they probably watch too much Rush and O'Reilly. You even have the Prince of the oligharchy, Kudlow denying the very serious problems that are indemic to the US economy and by extension it's currency. We must now wait another 3 weeks for the next Treasury TIC report. March -$45 billion! Many of us agree with the author's assertions that the Chinese have enough fiat linen currency on hand from Uncle Sam and are now looking to place the value of their economy into other areas. They have undertaken the building of a strategic petroleum reserve as well as entered the international LNG market as buyers. Risking being branded racist, I will cite the degradation of what used to be Rhodesia. The nation of South Africa is now heading down the same road as "Zimbabwe". If you destroy all the white people like they did in Haiti and Zimbabwe you can create a nation where extreme poverty and genocide reign supreme as the top industries. We have already seen a huge spike in N/A coal GACHF from +$1 to $7. FDG from $20-$40 to $72 etc. This due to a world wide coal shortage as S African output is curbed by a grossly mismanaged economy. The more they screw things up the more they screw things up. At the root of their problems are their ideas for solutions. What we have been doing so far is really achieving our goals so lets do some more of it! It is the goals that are a problem! This is going to manifest itself in the world's largest gold producer (China) having a very strong currency while production of gold , platinum and palladium from So Africa declines. We have seen what declines in Russian and Mexican oil production have done in the oil market. The US economy is in worse shape than almost any can imagine. Even the most timid proposals for facing up to the current accounts deficit severely ballooning in the NEAR years are trashed by Congress. McCain would try some reality in curbing future entitlements while the OBama would increase taxes to try and sustain a system that is in fact spelling the doom of the US economy. The US economy is what backs the US $. Without a strong economy the US dollar will continue to slide, perhaps precipitously. World gold production is quite likely to decline even as the demand continues strong. Watch the TIC reports. Three negative reports in a row may lead the Treasury to start cooking that economic barometer as well. The US government and their people are in major denial that an economy built on a huge foundation of Federal, State, County , town , city government and personal debt devoid of a strong manufacturing job base will not collapse! The richest nation on earth is now facing an increasing mortality rate from hyper and hypothermia amoug the youngest and oldest in our society. As heating oil climbs to $5 gal and the Nat Gas market reacts to the equvalent BTU pricing people are going to br increasingly unbearably hot in Summer and freezing cold in Winter. The next President no matter who he is will do little or nothing to reign in Ben the Dollar Slayer. (S)He will just be the next leader of the "Free Money World". A few billion in aid to Egypt so they can subsidise their gasoline at less than 1/3 what we pay. A few hundred billion each month in TRCAs and TFAs to keep the free money flowing. We might as well elect "ALF" "Hey!!!, No problem!!!!" as President. Of course this spells the eventual doom of Ben as he will no doubt at some point be exposed as a "Dummya" Toady and resign in disgrace over the whole dollar and economic situation spiralling out of control. His will be a very sincere heartfelt apology to the American people. Five percent dividends will not cut the mustard when we find the 4 major banks still floating out new tax advantaged subordinated debt paper at +8% and paying less than 4% on one year Cds that are 100% taxable. FNM-PRP 6.3% tax advantaged ADJUSTABLE! rate. Even the GSEs are up against it! The math no longer works in America! Calculus is something that forms on teeth and Statistics is what they use to calculate bridge girder specifications! The only thing left to do is to replace the Criminal Jackson on the $20 bill, with Ron Reagan! "Social security is a sacred trust between the American people and their Government". A beautiful piece of wordsmithing, legitimizing the nation's sense of entitlement and the tyranny of the old!

What’s Behind the Slide in Gold and Silver?

I had a great move up on Friday in my shares of DXKSX! My money is where most of the sentiment towards bonds seems to be! Thank you Mr Padman... This is an opinion I was seeking when I started to read the posted article. I did get a nice pop in my newly acquired GLD shares as well as my holdings in GDX today. The talking heads on the tube seem evenly split on the action to be seen next week in US $ valuations. Some are saying the Euro should fall below 150 and that oil could retreat to as low as $90 by the end of the month. The markets on Friday, certainly were not buying into that as the Fed flooded the world with a few hundred million dollars more in liquidity. I will now go back and try to find the conclusions of the author somewhere in the middle of the text. Good luck to all!

What’s Behind the Slide in Gold and Silver?

As of noon 5/2 we find the interest rate on the Ten year treasury increasing by 2.5% and the bond losing value, down 26/32s in price. The financials are ralllying on the Fed anouncing it is increasing the emergency borrowing facility from $50 to $75 Billion, increasing liquidity to the banking system. Gold & Oil & are rallying as well on this gratuitous conspicuous shifting of the printing presses into 4th gear.

What’s Behind the Slide in Gold and Silver?

Soup ~Your post is of course the meat of the issue. But what about a comparision on the basis of taxation? The FNM Preferred P has a guaranteed minimum yield. It sells so dramatically below par as to make the yield appear tempting. It is an adjustible rate yield based on an inflation related index & best of all! it is 15% tax qualified. People in bonds and CDs are getting slaughtered to feed the masses by the US tax system!

What’s Behind the Slide in Gold and Silver?

It is difficult to interpret what the conclusions are of the author given all this technical charting and sniping at the world's Gov't "men behind the curtains". While a particularly dry text it is has some merit based on the use of so many critical euphemisms. I am particularly enamored with some not used here like, "Ben the Dollar Slayer", " Henchman of the Dummya" . The sentiment of the author's remarks would seem to echo those as apt descriptions. So I guess my question is , based on all this discussion was my purchase of a partial position in GLD @ $83.73/=~$850 an ounce yesterday, ill timed? I have watch listed the DBP as it is a dual participant in the Silver and gold market. Still there seems no really good US based ETF yet that can match US Investors' "basket" diversification as reflected in it's mutual fund UNWPX. UNWPX is a $5K initial investment and has a 6 month trading restriction. An ETF where you could take partial positions and not be penalized for a trading decision would certainly be welcome. There are some of these funds trading in London and Canada that like UNWPX contain palladium, platinum, rhodium and other precious metals in addition to silver and gold. I own RJI and find it a very good fund if not for it's higher expense ratio. I will add to DBA if it drops a little more to below $35. MOO is my most heavily weighted of these three. I am not selling any of it. There seems to be no end in sight to $ destruction, with even McCain trying to out Democrat the Democrats with how much tax money he can give away to buy votes. He will end ALL earmarked pork barrel spending to pay for his proposals. This is just more of the "DUMMYA" cut taxes and dramatically increase spending on EVERTHING. As if McCain will have any ability to end pork when elected given the state of the country and the Congress most likely to sliding even further into the control of the Democrats. The Democrats at least propose some tax enhancement to get the Fed to rescue Student loans, and save Medicare and Social security. Abrubtly withdrawing from IRAQ and leaving behind the collaborators to fend for themselves could serve as a sobering lesson to the rest of the Eh-rab world. The nearly 5million refugees we have thus far created could be doubled in number and a wave of genocide of Eh-rabs killing each other will certainly ensue. That would save us $800 billion a year. So the Obama guy really will cut spending! Never the less the author's observations of those running the EC , seems to indicate at least some concern for how to maintain the confidence in linen fiat currencies. Reguardless of the current rally in the bear market for the US $ it seems it is destined for some hard times globally in the longer term. There is a real rise in demand worldwide for commodities and a huge amount of linen curency out there as the US has exported it's inflation machine worldwide. The Chinese had so much linen that they found the idea of a Strategic Petroleum reserve to be an excellent idea and have started one of their own. That is alot of linen money that could have gone into purchasing more US treasuries that are losing alot of value. Value, which has nothing to do any more with losing alot of money. We know that "they" were cooking the LIBOR rate numbers until recently. Does any one have an opinion on whether or not the US Treasury may be cooking the TIC data that is 3 months delayed and reported around the 15 th of each month? Are gold and silver likely bottoming here or are they going some or alot lower with this Faux $ rally?

The 7 'Golden Rules' of Picking a Gold Stock

I wouldn't give two dollars for a fifty guilder note! Alot of people who travel around the world thought they were saving enough of the local currency to pay a cab fare or buy a newspaper the next time they were in that country. But many found themselves stranded with defunct banknotes not easily redeemed or even worthless. It is not just the Euro thing. A ten pound note printed in 1979 with Florence Nightingale printed on the back side is not worth nearly $20. As with a defunct Guilder note it is not worth $2. A beautifully minted one ounce silver bullion coin minted in 1979 that would have cost $4.00 plus sales tax, shipping and even contained the premium of the minting, would now be worth $18. You could have bought 4 of them for that 1979 10 Pound note. Today you could cut that $4.00 silver coin into pieces of eight and still get nearly $2 for each piece selling or trading it as scrap. In 1979 you could have also bought 5 gals of gas for $4. Five gallons of gasoline now costs $17. Isn't that remarkable that with an ounce of silver you can still buy approximately the same amont of gas as you could buy 30 years ago. The currencies are just paper! The ETFs however are not! KOL, UHN,GLD,SLV,CUT,NLR,DB... you name it and there is an ETF for it. There are a few that have not come to pass Platinum? for instance ...yet. This is a fundamental change in how currencies printed on paper will be percieved into the future. The author is correct to point out the world inflation that we the United States created by exporting all of our printing press dollars all over the world to supply the shelves of Walmart and the refineries of Exxon-Mobil. Now we pull up to the pump and feel gsoline has quadrupled in price but it really hasn't in terms of a true measure of valuation. Most of our current difficulties in this vein are just due to the election of the most ineffective leadership the nation has ever seen. Americans are mezmerized by the TV sound bites of O'Reilly and bored by reality. In hind sight we see that the FEd has put our economy on a rollercoaster and seems bent on continuing the process. When interviewed by Congress the Dollar Slayer freely discusses the negative impact of uncontrolled deficit spending far into the future. He then steadfastly refuses to comment on tax policy. More tax cuts and more spending of paper checks now electronically deposited not backed by anything more than more tax cuts and more spending. America now believes in this as a solution like some new found religion. You need no physical anything to support faith. The Barbarians are at the gate and they are us. They are also known as baby boomers.