cato

2 New Ways to Hedge Inflation with ETFs

Tom,
It greatly diminishes you that you announce this without even remarking on what a lame marketing gimmick and a fraud the CPI ETF is.

A portfolio that's almost 90% in nominal US treasuries is the precise opposite of a hedge against inflation. It's a perfect way to set yourself up to get destroyed by inflation. When inflation and nominal rates get up to 10%, how will those 20year treasuries be doing? This is irresponsible and you are irresponsible for failing to mention it.

Jobless Claims Drop to Lowest Level in 40 Weeks

The title of the article and the graph are both misleading (deliberately, perhaps?). You have to read the text to find the truth.

"Jobless claims" have NOT dropped. "NEW jobless claims" have dropped. There's a big difference.

You're not talking about unemployment itself..... or even the 1st derivative of unemployment -- you're talking about the 2nd derivative.

19 'Babies with Bathwater' and 1 'Dog with Fleas' Stocks for the Week

And up over 5% today. It's a higher beta stock.


On Oct 28 12:04 PM J Clinton Hill wrote:

>
> just based upon its technicals, it slipped thru the cracks and as
> i write this reply, ENP is down @ 5% in just 3 days vs. the SPY being
> down @ -2.4% over the same period on an intraday basis.
>
> when used in conjunction with our market direction reports, most
> of the stocks results yielded from this screen tend to be right..
>
>
> the whole purpose of this report is to create a reference point for
> investment ideas and not specific recommendations, which is also
> strongly emphasized in the preface of this report. in fact, the only
> thing i recommend is that readers do their own due diligence like
> you just did before taking any decisive action.
>
> at any given week, the screen can generate up to 40 different stocks,
> a number that makes it impractical to research thoroughly, especially
> without compensation...
>
> there is a premium version of this report that includes decision
> support research for more in-depth fundamental analysis and market-timing...
> the manner in which i interpret and apply the results is often non-linear
> and will vary, e.g. ratio spreads, options, and bullish or bearish
> positions for both babies or dogs. at the moment, the report is currently
> unavailable to retail investors, but enough clues are provided to
> point people in the right direction most of the time.
>
> on the surface the report appears to be simple, but there's a lot
> more substance underneath the hood in terms of algorithms and proprietary
> inputs. to keep it user friendly, the format is intentionally presented
> in a simple an streamlined manner. as i have said before, in the
> right hands of a professional, the report is a pretty versatile tool
> and comparable to a swiss army knife.
>
> i sincerely appreciate your comments because this report has accomplished
> another important objective and that is encourage further research
> efforts from readers and provoke them to share their opinions and
> discoveries for the benefit of others as well as themselves.
>
> if i could get more people to take me to the mat like you just did,
> then i consider myself to have done my job well, i.e. empower people
> to help themselves and help others...
>
> thanks again.... take care and have a great day!

19 'Babies with Bathwater' and 1 'Dog with Fleas' Stocks for the Week

This evinces the dangers of conducting brain-dead screens on stocks. When you know nothing about the underlying stock, these screens are much worse than worthless.

ENP is an MLP. As such, its numbers must be viewed very differently. For example, GAAP EPS is not meaningful at all, because it does not account correctly for the massive Oil and Gas hedging upstream MLPs like ENP have. For companies like LINE and ENP, hedging income accounts for a moeity of their revenue right now.

The key metric for these companies is not EPS, but Distributable Cash Flow (DCF) -- which ENP has up the wazoo. In fact, it just reported earnings tongith with enough DCF to increase the distribution again. Tell me, how many of your recommended stocks have increased dividends lately?

What's more ENP has 140% coverage of that distribution (plenty of room to increase some more). That's better coverage than just about any company in the MLP space.

Boy you really blew that one. Hope you didn't do something really stupid like short it.

Jobless Claims Fall to Lowest Level in 37 Weeks

Completely misleading.

You say: "....that measure of jobless claims has fallen in 20 out of the last 26 weeks" Excuse me. The number of jobless claims has climbed ever higher. Only the number of NEW claims has actually fallen.

It's kinda like falling from an airplane without a parachute. At some point, the increase in your speed will decline. That does not mean that you're no longer falling. It doesn't even mean you've slowed down.

More on Technical Analysis

One of my life's observations: people get angry when their most irrational beliefs are challenged. The more irrational the belief, the angrier they get.

The response to your articles is proof. Be glad that these people don't follow the example of their medeival predecessors, the alchemists, and try to burn you at the stake. ;-)

The Great Oil Deception: Part Two

Get an editor!

This is one of the most incoherent, rambling articles I've read on SA. I think I agree with this guy. But what abominable writing.

TEPPCO Partners: A Pipeline For Profits?

Teppco had the unfortunate problem that the partnership technically terminated momentarily in '07 due to ownership changes. That meant that a lot of unitholders (like me) got saddled with fully taxable regular income (not even qualified dividend income!) that actually exceeded the amount of the distributions paid out. A very nasty surprise.

Outrageous Opportunities in Upstream MLPs

jjason,

I suggest you read the 10Ks of your Canroy stocks very carefully. You will find that many of these companies are taking on debt to finance their distributions. Not a good thing!

Also check out Morningstar's detailed reports on these stocks.

Outrageous Opportunities in Upstream MLPs

Energy:
If you look at the prices used for the PV-10 calculations of most of these companies, you'll find that they are significantly below the hedge prices. So, if anything, they underestimate the value. Not to mention that 10 is pretty generous discount rate, even in today's environment.

While equity financing is clearly closed to these companies for now, debt is still available, as evidenced by debt-financed acquisitions by CEP and LINE made this year.

ProShares Ultra and UltraShort Sector ETFs: Does 2 = 2?

Bingo Ben! People get confused and think these funds will attempt to track 2X (or -2X) over the course of a year. In fact, their goal is to do it _every day_.

Whether you realize it or not, a 2X fund is an implicit momentum play, since it reloads every day. It will always force you to buy a little more at higher prices and a little less at lower prices. If the market goes up and down a lot over a year and then ends the year unchanged, you will lose a lot of money!

Ten High Dividend Securities To Watch

Taxation depends on the particular MLP. It tends to vary between 60% and 100% deferred taxation (via reduction in cost basis). Some MLPs who are in heavy investment phases (e.g. LINE) will have 100% deferral. Others, like TPP, are closer to 70%.

Ten High Dividend Securities To Watch

Those are some excellent suggestions. Pipeline MLPs, such as EEP and TPP, tend to have very stable income with revenue guaranteed many years out. Some other to consider are OKS and EPD. Upstream (E&p) MLPs are slightly riskier, but offer excellent yields: LINE, CEP.