StateofConfusion

$125 Oil Not Sustainable for the Time Being

High oil price is the much needed wake up call for the U.S. Our government bozos have done nothing to reduce our oil dependence except recent subsidies for corn ethanol. Money is the only driver of change here. If oil were to drop below $100, it would greatly slow development of alternative energy and conservation. The last eight years have been wasted and its now our last chance to get going.

Since our whole nation and economy is built on cheap oil, this will cause a great deal of pain. Total oil reserves are estimated a 2 trillion barrels of which over 1 trillion (the easy half) have been used. Many producing wells are now in decline and any new sources are much harder to get to. World demand is rising and many countries are controlling oil for national purposes. Even Iran knows that oil is limited and needs an alternative source of power. Political situations and competition for oil will itself drive up prices. Out of the remaining amount of oil, we may only get 50% of it because it takes energy to get it out. All of this points to an upward trend. What thing would make it go down? Will there be some massive, easy to pump oil discovery? Will there be a giant slump in world demand? Will the US suddenly get huge sources of alternative energy and have everyone in HEVs in the next 5 years? HEVs will demand more electricity. I don't see much to drive oil down.