StateofConfusion

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

I think the European mindset is due to the fact they have been around longer than we (US) have. they have limited land, population (they have been fooled already by Muslim immigration) and they value craftmanship. So they go for high quality, lower volumn. They are the opposite end of the spectrum of China.
For the US, we depend more on China to keep inflation in check. I regret the loss of American job and think this may be our destruction but if we had not imported low price goods from China, Pakistan, Mexico, etc. what would be the value of the dollar now, probably half.
I think DBC is good to buy as it drifts downward for a short time.

Gold, Oil, Potash and Food: Top Investments This Decade

There are many articles about inflation and deflation brought on by the banking crisis. My conclusion is that we already have a lot of inflation worldwide in energy and food, which are related. Large population pools are raising their standard of living so these items will have continued high demand. The other side is deflation due to credit debt defaults, job loss in the US and tapped out consumers. This will lower demand on non essential items (the US being the major consumer nation) and cause deflated prices. At some point the Fed will raise interest rates a bit but can't do much or defaltion may go into a death spiral when all credit stops.

I expect commodities will rise in price, including gold and silver to match the oil and food increase. Owning physical metal doesn't do much for me (I do have some silver quarters) so why is buying ETFs like DBC, PZD or DBA a bad idea? Will the futures markets stop functioning? If it does, do you think we would still have food in stores?

Get Out of Commodities - Barron's

FrFlyer, thanks for your insightful post.

Jersey, you are correct and you will notice my post name as it says the same thing. Everyone is so sure of their views on commodities but there are opposite views. If the Chinese economy collaspes then commodity prices will go down, it not, they will rise. However, food is a necessity and it can't rise too high or people will starve and they will revolt.
I would place my bets for the long term in oil, alt. energy, and silver. All will be needed and are presently becoming in short supply.