StateofConfusion

How the Treasury Bubble Will Burst and Why

Though I think silver coins and maybe some gold coins could be used for currency, it may be useless by the time it is needed. In a hyperinflation scenario it becomes extremely difficult to grow food or produce and import products. Hoarding becomes normal, except for money which can't be spent fast enough. Metals can be useful as a hedge against inflation as long as the currency does not enter hyperinflation.

Would I exchange food for gold? No, unless I had more than I could eat before it goes bad. I can't eat your gold and normal food will last a month or two (cans - until eaten). Using something for money assumes that most of the world keeps functioning and will accept gold or silver for exchange or local farmers will take it. It is possible that if the USA goes down, so will the ROW. That seems to be happening now to some extent on at least a financial basis.

If the stock market goes to zero, then the country's economy will go to zero since companies and transport will not be operating. If gold goes sky high then gold and silver producers should go the same way. I don't believe this will happen.

These are just thoughts, I don't have the crystal ball (one of you guys took it).

Black Gold or Yellow Gold?

Two short comments.
There is a crisis brewing and many of you see and that is due to two causes religion (which for its own benefit, promotes population growth) and formerly cheap energy due to oil. Both have created the population explosion which can no longer be sustained but is supposed increase to 9 billion. Read The Long Emergency by James Howard Kunstler for more.

My sister, who is a caring person, is typical of many Americans. When I told her to read the above book, she declined because she doesn't want to read depressing books. When i asked her how much gas she uses, she didn't know (drives a Hyundai SUV). She would never vote for Obama and voted for Bush two times. I love her, but we are doomed.

Currency, Precious Metal and Futures ETFs: Don't Get Caught in the Tax Trap

Thanks Don, I invested in DBC recently (first time in a futures ETF) and I will sell it soon. This lunacy tax code already makes me sick for several weeks every year. I think the government keeps the public from revolting by snowing us with so much garbage we don't have time to realize what it has done to us. I'm all for a VAT and dumping the income tax.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

I think the European mindset is due to the fact they have been around longer than we (US) have. they have limited land, population (they have been fooled already by Muslim immigration) and they value craftmanship. So they go for high quality, lower volumn. They are the opposite end of the spectrum of China.
For the US, we depend more on China to keep inflation in check. I regret the loss of American job and think this may be our destruction but if we had not imported low price goods from China, Pakistan, Mexico, etc. what would be the value of the dollar now, probably half.
I think DBC is good to buy as it drifts downward for a short time.

Gold, Oil, Potash and Food: Top Investments This Decade

There are many articles about inflation and deflation brought on by the banking crisis. My conclusion is that we already have a lot of inflation worldwide in energy and food, which are related. Large population pools are raising their standard of living so these items will have continued high demand. The other side is deflation due to credit debt defaults, job loss in the US and tapped out consumers. This will lower demand on non essential items (the US being the major consumer nation) and cause deflated prices. At some point the Fed will raise interest rates a bit but can't do much or defaltion may go into a death spiral when all credit stops.

I expect commodities will rise in price, including gold and silver to match the oil and food increase. Owning physical metal doesn't do much for me (I do have some silver quarters) so why is buying ETFs like DBC, PZD or DBA a bad idea? Will the futures markets stop functioning? If it does, do you think we would still have food in stores?

Who's to Blame for the Commodities Boom?

Sliv812 is absolutley correct. There use to be a lot of discussion abou the world population explosion. Then it stopped about the time Bush 2 came to power. Why? Because some groups want to increase their numbers. Need proof? Look at Mormon families in the SW (5 to 10 kids per family). Look at illegal immigration. Look at poligamist sects. Population is power and religious and Mexican groups (in the U.S.) want that power. The U.S. is straining and there will be shortages, including water. Do we really want 450 million people here? I know I don't.
On the issue of taking the opposite side if prices are too high, that suggestion is lacking in merit. Prices can go up on speculation for a long time due to greed. How else do you explain the housing crisis? The real problem is knowing if it is demand or speculation driving the price and when it will stop. There are too many people trading for profit instead of investing so speculation moves in a wave from one trend to another.

Get Out of Commodities - Barron's

FrFlyer, thanks for your insightful post.

Jersey, you are correct and you will notice my post name as it says the same thing. Everyone is so sure of their views on commodities but there are opposite views. If the Chinese economy collaspes then commodity prices will go down, it not, they will rise. However, food is a necessity and it can't rise too high or people will starve and they will revolt.
I would place my bets for the long term in oil, alt. energy, and silver. All will be needed and are presently becoming in short supply.