Grass Ranger

Gold Is Not in a Bull Market

Nadler can be equated to the "late" Andy Smith of Mitsui who was a registered gold bear for much of the early gold bull move. After several years of steadily downplaying the rise in gold, Andy's commentary disappeared and has not been seen (at least by me) for a long time. Nadler's position with Kitco gives him a pulpit, but if Kitco finds his negative outlook for gold has become negative for their business, we won't be seeing much of Mr Nadler anymore. His view that the dollar and gold are correlated is correct, but he seems to overlook the fact that the dollar will continue its move toward zero and even dirt will gain in value against it.

The Curious Problem of Gold and Silver Coins as Legal U.S. Tender

It has always been my understanding that the government deliberately keeps the legal tender denominations on gold and silver coin set so low to keep the vast majority of the public from using them in trade. I think the IRS position is, I can sell my old car for $100 in gold (2 ounces) but if I ever sell the coins for their true market value, I have to pay capital gain on the difference between the price I get for the coins and the $100 price of the car. The reason it is difficult to pay wages in gold using this system is minimum wages (currently at $6.55) would be exorbitant for most jobs. Currently that would be over an ounce of gold per day.

Why Gold Is Losing Its Shine

"As a result, gold ETFs such as SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) may fall as much as 50% over the next few months,..."

Why would Gold fall from 900 to 450 over the next few months? Nothing in the commentary supports such a statement. Declining or lack of profits in ABX and NEM are due to company issues, not the price of gold. Other miners saw big increases in profitability.

The Dollar price of gold is closely tied to the confidence of dollar holders in the economic health of the US and the US government. If confidence continues to erode, especially by international dollar holders, gold will continue to appreciate, regardless of the prognostications of the commentators.

Jim Sinclair: Gold, Swine Flu, Communal Emails

On Apr 30 02:12 AM Freya wrote:

> Even the best have failed, no one is perfect.
------------
I agree. Just look at all the folk who are still holding GM shares. My perspective of TRE is that its most recent decline was inspired by a short seller, not any fundamental change in the company's prospects. Barron's appears to have become a conduit for this type of hatchet job to give a short seller the opportunity to get out of a vulnerable position. Investment in a gold exploration play is always a speculation so you bet on integrity of management and the prospects of their land base. If TRE goes to zero, it won't be the first for me but it will average out with some that have gone up 9:1.
Although I respect Gary Tanashian and read his blog regularly, I disagree with his negative characterizations. My bet is still with Sinclair and TRE.

Jim Sinclair: Gold, Swine Flu, Communal Emails

You won't find me saying much negative about Jim Sinclair. Since I started following his eductional commentary in 2002, my self-managed account average annual return is +15%, probably not the best to be found but better than the market. I read the commentary on his site every day and view his perspective as the best interpretation of reality on the net. The FORMULA he laid out in Sept06 was history in advance. Any person who can know history before it happens should be able to make something of it. Maybe at some time he will not be so prescient, but as long as the momentum is with him, I plan to be listening.

Is the GLD ETF Really Worth Its Metal?

I dare say that a lot of current holders of GLD don't really care if the "gold" is there. They are using GLD in a trading strategy. It is easy to buy and they expect to sell out at some higher price. After reading other commentary similar to the above, I have sold out my GLD holding and used the proceeds to buy Eagles. I am looking for portfolio insurance, not some speculative instrument in this current turmoil.

How to Preserve Wealth in a Socialist Economy

On Feb 15 12:07 PM PastTense wrote:

"The OP clearly doesn't know what he is talking about. The number
of centrally planned economies has declined overwhelming--see Russia
and its satellites and China. Actually it is hard to think of any
centrally planned economies left: Cuba, North Korea, who else?
Instead the enormous movement has been toward crony capitalism--where there is an unholy alliance between certain sectors of the business
world and the political elite."

PastTense, you are overlooking the fact that your centrally planned economies and crony capitalist economies are essentially the same except for the front men. There is no essential difference between the Central Planning Committee of Cuba deciding who gets the party perks and the Goldman-Sachs/US Treasury cabal deciding who gets the bailouts.

Mines' Eyes Have Not Seen The Glory

Good advice for someone who is not now in the gold market but is thinking about taking a position. A lower risk position would be to buy GDX, the miners ETF based on the Amex Gold Miners Index. You won't hit a home run with it like buying Seabridge in 2003 but it won't be a Bre-X or a dot.com either. Because the gold bull market likely has a few years to run, I am buying GDX 100 shares at a time each time it pulls back 5 to 10%. This has worked well since it was at $34. When gold hits 1600, I'll start thinking about selling some at certain percentage point increases from there. Regarding the rest of the economy and financial system, good luck to us all. We are going to need it.

Is it a Good Time to Sell Gold Yet?

The chances of gold going back to 275 in the future are about the same as the chances that gold would return to $35 after the run up to 850 in 1980. The steady increase of dollars in circulation in the future, in comparison to the miniscule increase in the gold supply, will guarantee the price never returns to 275. The last time the IMF sold large amounts of gold coincides with the beginning of the greatest increases in gold prices in the 1970s.

5 Reasons to Save the Greenback

Steve Agnew - "Clearly oil futures are in the midst of such a frenzy and so an obvious strategy would be for the central banks to short oil...big time."

Short Oil?? Who is going to loan oil to a central bank to put it into the market? Haven't you seen the effects of going short against the commodities lately. These price run-ups are due to demand for commodities in short supply, not just speculators making a fast buck. The reason the buck is so cheap is that there are so many of them floating around the world that no one wants.