Solar Guy's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/159767/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/170354-first-solar-earnings-eight-points-about-the-solar-industry?source=feed#comment-739805 739805 Sun, 01 Nov 2009 22:25:38 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/170354-first-solar-earnings-eight-points-about-the-solar-industry?source=feed#comment-739265 739265
We have a proprietary model that builds in the economic assumptions, discount rate, annual escalation rate, etc. that we're constantly updating. Since September 1, 2008, our two local utility companies rates have increased 20.3% and 30% respectively in NW Florida. You can throw out all the historical data on annual rate increases in the pre-carbon tax and pre-grid upgrade era. Just wait until 2010 - consumers and businesses are about to get hammered with all these pass-through costs for grid-based electricity in the next year, making distributed solar energy on the rooftop an even more compelling value proposition.

It's actually irrelevant how many years a person stays in the home as it's the LEC of the energy producing system that you're analyzing. The increased value of the home with renewable energy and a lower utility bill is passed on to the next homeowner. People don't live in their homes for 30 years, but they budget for them that way typically with 30-year fixed mortgages. Why? Lower monthly payment. ]]> Sun, 01 Nov 2009 11:58:41 -0500
We have a proprietary model that builds in the economic assumptions, discount rate, annual escalation rate, etc. that we're constantly updating. Since September 1, 2008, our two local utility companies rates have increased 20.3% and 30% respectively in NW Florida. You can throw out all the historical data on annual rate increases in the pre-carbon tax and pre-grid upgrade era. Just wait until 2010 - consumers and businesses are about to get hammered with all these pass-through costs for grid-based electricity in the next year, making distributed solar energy on the rooftop an even more compelling value proposition.

It's actually irrelevant how many years a person stays in the home as it's the LEC of the energy producing system that you're analyzing. The increased value of the home with renewable energy and a lower utility bill is passed on to the next homeowner. People don't live in their homes for 30 years, but they budget for them that way typically with 30-year fixed mortgages. Why? Lower monthly payment. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170354-first-solar-earnings-eight-points-about-the-solar-industry?source=feed#comment-739114 739114
You make some excellent points, except your LEC math is inaccurate on point number 4.

As a complimentary service, we provide all our customers a 30-year system life analysis to determine their IRR, Net Present Value, and Payback Period on their solar systems. Almost all of the solar panel manufacturers now offer a 25-year warranty and the panels will actually perform for 30+ years. So the LEC analysis should be based on 30 years lifetime, not 20 years as you stated.

Reference your final comment - "Solar's LEC must come down to the level of other, traditional energy generation sources for it to truly gain critical mass and the accelerated investment and deployment that comes with it." On every analysis I've provided to our customers here in Northwest Florida, the fixed solar rate equivalent cost for 30 years has been in the $0.03 - $0.08 / kWh range based on the size of the system versus the local utility provider's grid-based rate of $0.15 / kWh. In reality, we're already at or below "grid parity".

Even if you take away the current subsidies and tax credits for the unsubsidized, TRUE cost of energy from all energy sources (solar versus coal, natural gas, and nuclear) in the US, decentralized electricity generation from solar panels on a rooftop with no associated grid transmission costs or non-competing, utility company monopoly dependence is still much less expensive for the next 30 years.]]> Sun, 01 Nov 2009 09:51:14 -0500
You make some excellent points, except your LEC math is inaccurate on point number 4.

As a complimentary service, we provide all our customers a 30-year system life analysis to determine their IRR, Net Present Value, and Payback Period on their solar systems. Almost all of the solar panel manufacturers now offer a 25-year warranty and the panels will actually perform for 30+ years. So the LEC analysis should be based on 30 years lifetime, not 20 years as you stated.

Reference your final comment - "Solar's LEC must come down to the level of other, traditional energy generation sources for it to truly gain critical mass and the accelerated investment and deployment that comes with it." On every analysis I've provided to our customers here in Northwest Florida, the fixed solar rate equivalent cost for 30 years has been in the $0.03 - $0.08 / kWh range based on the size of the system versus the local utility provider's grid-based rate of $0.15 / kWh. In reality, we're already at or below "grid parity".

Even if you take away the current subsidies and tax credits for the unsubsidized, TRUE cost of energy from all energy sources (solar versus coal, natural gas, and nuclear) in the US, decentralized electricity generation from solar panels on a rooftop with no associated grid transmission costs or non-competing, utility company monopoly dependence is still much less expensive for the next 30 years.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/143858-where-to-next-for-solar-etfs?source=feed#comment-553328 553328 Fri, 19 Jun 2009 01:22:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/119669-has-solar-demand-finally-hit-bottom?source=feed#comment-384970 384970 IRR) from 10% to 22% based on PV system size, local rebates, incentives, and Federal tax credit due to economies of scale. Try making that kind of return on your money with any other investment in current credit market.]]> Wed, 11 Feb 2009 23:11:27 -0500 IRR) from 10% to 22% based on PV system size, local rebates, incentives, and Federal tax credit due to economies of scale. Try making that kind of return on your money with any other investment in current credit market.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81673-intel-creating-a-new-solar-play?source=feed#comment-187173 187173 Tue, 17 Jun 2008 13:25:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79468-walter-nasdeo-discusses-solar-energy?source=feed#comment-176730 176730 seekingalpha.com/artic.... I believe (as Jack clearly points out) that an apples-to-apples comparison of all the "true" and hidden costs of fossil-fuel based electricity generation that taxpayers subsidize (e.g. 20-year life cycle costs and environmental impacts being quantified, health risks, loss of US capital overseas for imported oil, annual defense expenditures to protect strategic interests in Middle East region) versus unsubsidized solar would drastically change the narrative of this energy debate. The truth is we're already at grid parity. That data is obscured by lobbyists in the oil and natural gas industry -- because if revealed to consumers it could cause a major revolt on the utility prices and an explosion in renewables that would truly accelerate adoption of them.

Nuclear and fossil fuels received over 6X the combined tax subsidies in 2007 for electricity-related R&D funding ($9.3B versus $1.4B for renewables.

The popular argument forwarded by the oil and gas industry that renewable energy sources such as solar and wind are not cost-competitive with conventional sources ignores the fact that the latter are subsidized at a far greater rate, and renewable energy is not currently mass produced so it cannot take advantage of the economies of scale (yet).

Other than Jack Yetiv, no author has really tackled this subject in depth. Would be a great business case study for Harvard.

]]> Fri, 30 May 2008 11:15:50 -0400 seekingalpha.com/artic.... I believe (as Jack clearly points out) that an apples-to-apples comparison of all the "true" and hidden costs of fossil-fuel based electricity generation that taxpayers subsidize (e.g. 20-year life cycle costs and environmental impacts being quantified, health risks, loss of US capital overseas for imported oil, annual defense expenditures to protect strategic interests in Middle East region) versus unsubsidized solar would drastically change the narrative of this energy debate. The truth is we're already at grid parity. That data is obscured by lobbyists in the oil and natural gas industry -- because if revealed to consumers it could cause a major revolt on the utility prices and an explosion in renewables that would truly accelerate adoption of them.

Nuclear and fossil fuels received over 6X the combined tax subsidies in 2007 for electricity-related R&D funding ($9.3B versus $1.4B for renewables.

The popular argument forwarded by the oil and gas industry that renewable energy sources such as solar and wind are not cost-competitive with conventional sources ignores the fact that the latter are subsidized at a far greater rate, and renewable energy is not currently mass produced so it cannot take advantage of the economies of scale (yet).

Other than Jack Yetiv, no author has really tackled this subject in depth. Would be a great business case study for Harvard.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/74298-is-the-sun-shining-on-solar?source=feed#comment-157863 157863 seekingalpha.com/artic....

]]> Mon, 28 Apr 2008 09:19:50 -0400 seekingalpha.com/artic....

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/73049-when-will-solar-achieve-grid-parity-we-re-already-there?source=feed#comment-157627 157627 Sun, 27 Apr 2008 19:01:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/73049-when-will-solar-achieve-grid-parity-we-re-already-there?source=feed#comment-157087 157087
Keep up the good fight, and May God Bless You!]]> Sat, 26 Apr 2008 10:25:00 -0400
Keep up the good fight, and May God Bless You!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/73251-solar-power-will-be-transformational-in-the-next-decade?source=feed#comment-154654 154654 www.evworld.com/articl.... (It's also why I'm looking for investors for my solar power plant startup here in Florida). I'm the former CEO of a dot-com company for 10 years, and believe this sector is bigger than the Internet for the next 20 years. We can't get the solar industry going fast enough in my opinion.

]]> Tue, 22 Apr 2008 10:00:04 -0400 www.evworld.com/articl.... (It's also why I'm looking for investors for my solar power plant startup here in Florida). I'm the former CEO of a dot-com company for 10 years, and believe this sector is bigger than the Internet for the next 20 years. We can't get the solar industry going fast enough in my opinion.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/73049-when-will-solar-achieve-grid-parity-we-re-already-there?source=feed#comment-153986 153986 Mon, 21 Apr 2008 10:12:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/72888-energy-affecting-food-prices?source=feed#comment-153324 153324 Sat, 19 Apr 2008 08:58:30 -0400