who's Comments

How Apple's Market Share Will Propel Stock to $500, Part 1

Fri, 23 Oct 2009 10:46:01 -0400

All good and well, one important point is that Apple targets high end segment and with 91%, there isn't much room to grow. How will Apple compete with Windows at the low end of spectrum if it choose do so? Will entry into low end machines threaten its dominance in the high end market.

The New Face of U.S. Mortgage Lending

Tue, 08 Sep 2009 05:07:12 -0400

how long can the government keep this up?

Did Chinese Government Stimulus Drive the Latest Rally?

Fri, 04 Sep 2009 11:36:03 -0400

Sure did! The latest rise in housing market in HK (upto 1997 levels for some estates) were almost driven by mainland Chinese which have dropped significantly as reports of curbing loans went out. In HK we have highest level of unemployment for a long time and employment is still very weak.

On Financial Engineering and Financial Innovation

Thu, 23 Jul 2009 06:05:00 -0400

Like it or not banks are here to make money. Providing ways for people with bad credit to get loans is not new and was speciality of loan companies then the banks got involved. The smart investment guys basically off loaded the loans to other financial organisations looking for small return for taking on a small risks unfortunately the risks was not small.

People taking advantage of the subprime loan product and process, and poor regulations are the real culprits and turn a good idea of providing houses for the less well off into trading frenzy. Jacking up house prices is always bad for the less well off.

Via the Pragmatic Capitalist: Unlikely as it seems, BNP analysts see a bubble when they look at Chinese equities - and call a July crash.

Wed, 22 Jul 2009 15:14:08 -0400

Current run in Chinese markets is done with hot money. Fall will happen when the hot runs out. Not in July probably later.

Chinese companies may be not the most obaque but US companies given they the regulatory requirements, etc. can also be cloudy. E.g. Enron and current financial mess made the banks.

Preview from Europe: How Green Was My Rally

Wed, 08 Jul 2009 15:13:49 -0400

surprise, surprise...machine orders are down...given current conditions would you make capital investments?

If it weren't hard enough for the unemployed, a growing number of firms looking to hire are bypassing the jobless in favor of those still working, reasoning that those who still have jobs in today's economy must be the best at what they do.

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 15:56:09 -0400

if it was as simple as being good at your job or having a competent skill then we all could be trained to have the skills...all the politics, shoe shinning, butt licking...would be wasted!

Apple: Steve Jobs Is Fine, and We Still Hate Netbooks

Thu, 23 Apr 2009 13:04:03 -0400

Given the price of netbook is comparable to an iPhone, I guess they are not eager to get in the netbook market given it would probably take away business from its iPhone.

Netbooks have it place - hey I have 2 netbooks and replaced them when I got the iPhone. But, will use my netbooks should i need to do some typing!

State of the iPhone: Strong. Very Strong.

Thu, 23 Apr 2009 12:59:47 -0400

iPhone - truly a great "phone" - something I wanted several years ago and couldn't get. (Although I did try with iPaq to get similar results given the different quality of networks then.) Mobile computing, entertainment center,camera, photo album, storage device, etc. Adding a video camera and improving the battery live would make it perfect for me.

Options Trader: Thursday Outlook

Thu, 02 Apr 2009 12:58:59 -0400

True - Mighty Tim's words move markets!

On Apr 02 10:40 AM HBWOW wrote:

> Avoid facts and logic, the real word for the market is MASSIVE
MANI...

Long Visa: Not All Credit Card Companies Are Created Equal

Thu, 02 Apr 2009 12:23:40 -0400

Strong resistance around $58, should it stay above $58 then I will put a bull call spread.

Stock is down form its high of $90. Great stock to trade and buy for the long term investment.

The leading plan to fix GM and Chrysler would use bankruptcy filings to purge the companies of their biggest problems, in essence splitting both companies into their "good" and "bad" components. (WSJ)

Mon, 30 Mar 2009 15:51:55 -0400

I don't think bankruptcy will actually happen since this will probably mean the unions will loose in a big way....

This Rally May Have Legs - Bespoke

Mon, 30 Mar 2009 15:49:59 -0400

All true and good, but the markets are now driven by news - Tiny Tim and crew can move mountains by opening their mouths. Markets are still driven by fear - fear of government intervention.

The Fate of General Motors' Rick Wagoner

Mon, 30 Mar 2009 05:36:59 -0400

Yep, I agree his arrogance did himself in. May its a new leader(ship) that is required.

Chinese Are Likely to Halt Purchases of U.S. Treasury Debt

Fri, 13 Mar 2009 12:34:36 -0400

Americans are very good of shooting themselves in the foot without any encouragement from another country.

Why is it that Japan maintains its manufacturing base and dominate certain manufacturing industries. Are you going to blame the demise of Detroit on the Japanese car makers (or the German's)? Blame the Nokia for taking market share from Motorola? In Japan the cheap goods are made in China and very expensive goods are made in Japan, clearly the Chinese goods service the lower part of the population. US's no. 1 export is MacDonald's, which dominate the world cheap burgers.

On Mar 13 12:03 PM Mr. Big wrote:

> Sooner or later, Americans will realize that China has been waging
> a quiet war on America. You know what? China is winning. I'm just
> going to put it out there now: CHINA IS THE CAUSE OF THE CREDIT
> CRISIS.
>
> Their manipulation of their currency as decimated the US manufacturing
> base. Their massive buying of medium and long term treasury bonds
> (in support of their currency peg) as caused long term yields to
> remain depressed for a prolonged period, causing the inversion of
> the yield curve in 2005 to 2007 and setting up the conditions for
> leverage in the financial sector and the incentive for savers to
> become borrowers. They did this to America and now they have the
> gull to "warn" us?
>
> Fact of the matter is, China's currency manipulation should be considered
> an act of war on America. It is a blatant attack on America's economy
> and a destabilizing force on its financial sector.
>
> Quite the opposite should happen. America should be warning China
> to stop their blatant attacks or risk military intervention. What
> is happening now is tantamount to an embargo on America....nay....it
> is worse. And if an embargo is considered an act of war, then currency
> manipulation with the sole purpose of boosting domestic manufacturing
> at the expense of foreign manufacturing should also be considered
> an act of war.
>
> Just my thoughts....

What Happened to Dell?

Thu, 05 Mar 2009 23:23:54 -0500

I agree with a lot of what is said about MS, but most software and hardware are made compatible with MS and not so much with other systems. This I found out when I bought a netbook with Linux.

Desktop may comeback in vogue due to costing less then a notebook and equal to netbook. Unless you need and really want a netbook a desktop is much cheaper. Just bought a desktop with quad processor and 20 inch monitor for a price of mid-end notebook or high-end netbook.

Still Waiting for the Bottom

Thu, 05 Mar 2009 14:40:47 -0500

Now we have a clearer picture of Obama's solutions it looks like another free fall from here onwards. Any bullish moves has been very weak.

Unemployment (and reemployment) rates is probably the key as consumer confidence will lift turnover, margins and profits. Unless you can see a relatively prosperous future then you will not spend.

Grim Outlook for U.S., Japan, and China Markets

Wed, 04 Mar 2009 15:18:11 -0500

The figure is more like 20 million of migrant workers returning to farms, hills, etc. China is in desperation mode. Giving away cookers, water heaters, TVs, etc. to the poor and rural areas is "stimulating" demand. Next in line will be computers then cars! Hence, need for better infrastructure in rural areas and hills.

Let AIG Go Bankrupt, Not America

Wed, 04 Mar 2009 01:45:30 -0500

Over simplification of the AIG / financial situation and touting agriculture and commodities spill. US Government, Fed's, etc. are not stupid, they probably have a clear picture of the situation. Hence, their actions and actions of all governments in trying to bailout their financial institutions.

Look at mess from LEH demise and magnitude by a few thousand times to get a scenario of AIG demise.

Become farmers - back to the dark ages. Forget about currency, international trade, etc. - just barter with your neighbor!

Is 'Buy and Hold' Investing Dead?

Tue, 03 Mar 2009 21:28:55 -0500

Buy and hold is not dead for bullish markets. Since we are in bearish market its sell and hold.

Financial Crisis Watch: Where's Timothy?

Tue, 03 Mar 2009 15:28:14 -0500

Obama needs to take some heat by making too much pre-announcement fan fair from Tim. More should have been done to manage expectations if no concrete plan was going to be put forward.

Nationalization, By Any Other Name

Mon, 02 Mar 2009 04:02:19 -0500

Another name would be policy banks...which is used by the PRC!

Can't let banks like Citi go down otherwise America will loose its footing in the financial industry and possibly its economic influence.

The End of the Credit Crisis

Fri, 27 Feb 2009 14:26:11 -0500

I'm no tax expert but a bit lost....

buyers will only pay 100k for bad $500k loan which is worth $300K...

but willing to pay $300K for a good $300K loan...

Ignoring tax benefits, why would the buyer not pay $100k for bad $500K loan and writedown the $200K. Hence get a good $300k loan for $100K and make 200% profit? Why not write down the loan to $200K - super save - and make 100% profit?

Isn't this the crux of stumbling block, banks are not willing to sell their loans for the fraction of what they paid for it nor reduce the principle? The $500K loan has a good part (repayable without foreclosure) so why is it worth only $100K unless that is what the expected repayment is.

Eight Reasons Bank of America Is Going to $20

Fri, 27 Feb 2009 13:05:27 -0500

The author may be dangerous go happy, but the idea is neat. I have similar bets (yes bets) on C and JPM. And will take up the BAC bet at $20 but will use a butterfly call as this is less risk or higher return. In the mean time I will us a calender spread to pay for the butterfly risk.

Bet - as it will be difficult to return to profitability within the next 2 years given the depth of current crisis. But, these companies will not fail as the government will not allow it. American nationalisation (no control) is possible as the companies will find it hard to pay the interest or the principle. RBS has to pay +$6 billion for the insurance from the British government by only doing business in Scotland!?

American Express Buying Out Cardholders: Bad for the Economy?

Wed, 25 Feb 2009 03:23:26 -0500

Is there something Amex sees that its not telling us? Looks like they are predicting defaults to increase significantly and willing to take in less to reduce the possibilities of defaults.

Obama's Speech Struck the Right Tone

Wed, 25 Feb 2009 03:19:37 -0500

If he can see 2 trillion dollars in next 10 years why not act now and save this 2 trillion ASAP? When does he expect to start? 9th year "in" office?

An Obama Speech to Light Wall Street on Fire

Tue, 24 Feb 2009 23:35:15 -0500

Another ranting article written by someone who wants their stocks to go back up.

Real value of the banks - how can you do that without market to market. Value base on purchase prices, face value, end value!? When the underlying is falling the assets are not worth what was paid for instead they worth the sale value which are probably less then 50cnt to the dollar. The rules can be changed but does reality change? The cat is out of the box. Liquidity can only address by open market auction. Buyers will want some return for the risk they are taking.

Your article is correct in that short term solutions are not going to hold water as in the case of AIG exemplifies.

Nationalization would be better since that is what is happening but without the control. $180 billion in AIG is not taking over the company? Shareholder dilution is sad but necessary part of the game. Shareholders should have got out long time ago. Looks like Uncle Sam and the whole system is in for shock if the stories of $60 billion losses are true.

Four Asian Economies in a World of Pain

Mon, 23 Feb 2009 15:52:42 -0500

We need an acronym for world in deep sh*t! Is there a country not in deep...not part for global financial and economic modern world?

Asia's 10 Most Profitable Companies

Mon, 23 Feb 2009 15:46:34 -0500

Oh - India...very populous but also the majority is very poor. Even more so now with crisis. Extremely poor infrastructure, extremely poor and money pay for government service, poor rich divide is extreme, poor security, etc., etc. Micro business environment.

Asia's 10 Most Profitable Companies

Mon, 23 Feb 2009 15:39:49 -0500

This is a very weak article. Latest no's of 20 million migrant workers loosing their jobs in China is real. China is giving money out to its people to keep them happy.

HSBC 10% dividend, should HSBC maintain this then the stock will shoot up to by at least 100% as the current $ dividend was around 5% before the crisis. I think HSBC will take this opportunity to reserve cash and payout a 5% dividend i.e. keep to its plan.

The PE and PEG for the Chinese banks are very high. The banks are essentially policy banks hence they run a high risks of bad loans in traditional banking.