I agree that offline apps are going to go online... Software as service will be the future for business productivity, email, even games... The one area where "boxed software" won't fade? Processor-intenstive applications like graphics, audio and video... And who leads the market by far in those applications? Adobe of course! They're really poised to kick Microsoft's ass... If I was MSFT, i would be very afraid.
BTW, I've been a Microsoft developer for 10+ years and love their development tools, but a lot of creative and tech people hate them... Microsoft's Silverlight, which delivers online applications with a "rich", full-featured interface is very compelling, but in the end, it won't be good enough to just deliver a great development platform. You also have to overcome all the irrational hate open-sourcers and creatives have for MSFT, and that's going to be tough.
Yahoo + Adobe: It's a Vision Thing [View article]
BTW, I've been a Microsoft developer for 10+ years and love their development tools, but a lot of creative and tech people hate them... Microsoft's Silverlight, which delivers online applications with a "rich", full-featured interface is very compelling, but in the end, it won't be good enough to just deliver a great development platform. You also have to overcome all the irrational hate open-sourcers and creatives have for MSFT, and that's going to be tough.