green_cheeks's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/160063/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/97392-don-t-worry-about-the-fdic?source=feed#comment-265150 265150 ]]> Thu, 25 Sep 2008 15:52:03 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97392-don-t-worry-about-the-fdic?source=feed#comment-265148 265148 ]]> Thu, 25 Sep 2008 15:50:50 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97177-dollar-bulls-and-bears-struggle-for-dominance?source=feed#comment-264100 264100 Wed, 24 Sep 2008 18:22:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97177-dollar-bulls-and-bears-struggle-for-dominance?source=feed#comment-264099 264099 Wed, 24 Sep 2008 18:21:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95984-market-nosedive-pushes-dollar-down?source=feed#comment-257514 257514 We are going on a financial water fast. We are excreting all the unpleasant tumors that have been residing in the financial nether regions.

Things are falling apart. Some say that everything is going to be alright once the housing market starts back up again. Hasn't everyone had the chance to own a house already? If they haven't failed in their bid for ownership, then their knuckles are bloody and their hope is fading with every head shot as they hold on to their homes. Hard to get a loan when creditors become less lenient. Jobs are also handy and they are disappearing like pine needles popping in a forest fire.
Are we expecting all the DINKs to get divorced and buy separate homes?
Even if you get a home loan and can afford the mortgage for a while, you still have to eat, fuel your car and have some fun. And that costs more every day too.
It is all very interesting to me. And I have lost some money myself, so I am not standing on high ground here. I just don't understand how home purchasing is going to prop the economy.
Or people could just slow down. Eat less. Use less energy. Be simple.

By the way Grace, you sizzle. ]]> Wed, 17 Sep 2008 20:49:31 -0400 We are going on a financial water fast. We are excreting all the unpleasant tumors that have been residing in the financial nether regions.

Things are falling apart. Some say that everything is going to be alright once the housing market starts back up again. Hasn't everyone had the chance to own a house already? If they haven't failed in their bid for ownership, then their knuckles are bloody and their hope is fading with every head shot as they hold on to their homes. Hard to get a loan when creditors become less lenient. Jobs are also handy and they are disappearing like pine needles popping in a forest fire.
Are we expecting all the DINKs to get divorced and buy separate homes?
Even if you get a home loan and can afford the mortgage for a while, you still have to eat, fuel your car and have some fun. And that costs more every day too.
It is all very interesting to me. And I have lost some money myself, so I am not standing on high ground here. I just don't understand how home purchasing is going to prop the economy.
Or people could just slow down. Eat less. Use less energy. Be simple.

By the way Grace, you sizzle. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95956-morgan-stanley-in-the-crosshairs?source=feed#comment-257513 257513 We are going on a financial water fast. We are excreting all the unpleasant tumors that have been residing in the financial nether regions.

Things are falling apart. Some say that everything is going to be alright once the housing market starts back up again. Hasn't everyone had the chance to own a house already? If they haven't failed in their bid for ownership, then their knuckles are bloody and their hope is fading with every head shot as they hold on to their homes. Hard to get a loan when creditors become less lenient. Jobs are also handy and they are disappearing like pine needles popping in a forest fire.
Are we expecting all the DINKs to get divorced and buy separate homes?
Even if you get a home loan and can afford the mortgage for a while, you still have to eat, fuel your car and have some fun. And that costs more every day too.
It is all very interesting to me. And I have lost some money myself, so I am not standing on high ground here. I just don't understand how home purchasing is going to prop the economy.
Or people could just slow down. Eat less. Use less energy. Be simple.

]]> Wed, 17 Sep 2008 20:48:23 -0400 We are going on a financial water fast. We are excreting all the unpleasant tumors that have been residing in the financial nether regions.

Things are falling apart. Some say that everything is going to be alright once the housing market starts back up again. Hasn't everyone had the chance to own a house already? If they haven't failed in their bid for ownership, then their knuckles are bloody and their hope is fading with every head shot as they hold on to their homes. Hard to get a loan when creditors become less lenient. Jobs are also handy and they are disappearing like pine needles popping in a forest fire.
Are we expecting all the DINKs to get divorced and buy separate homes?
Even if you get a home loan and can afford the mortgage for a while, you still have to eat, fuel your car and have some fun. And that costs more every day too.
It is all very interesting to me. And I have lost some money myself, so I am not standing on high ground here. I just don't understand how home purchasing is going to prop the economy.
Or people could just slow down. Eat less. Use less energy. Be simple.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94537-remember-those-200-oil-predictions?source=feed#comment-249897 249897 Tue, 09 Sep 2008 21:59:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94322-300-barrel-oil-is-coming-barron-s-interview?source=feed#comment-249883 249883 People are just going to get used to colder winters and hot summers.
The only way we got up to 20mil barrels a day was due to easy credit. More people were able to afford and drive cars more. Now more people will be walking, taking mass transit and riding bikes. There isn't going to be an apocalypse, it will just be basic economics. I can be a mindless driver myself. But I know I could drive 50% less than I do if I needed to. Having a fridge full of yummy food and heating and cooling my home are far more important than taking 20 trips a day to buy things I don't need because I am bored.
Look at what is happening right now... Oil is dropping like a brick and so is our economy. Normally oil becoming cheaper would be helpful. The reason it isn't helpful is because it is still too expensive to help our sickly economy gain any ground. If oil went down to $30/barrel tomorrow, it would raise the economy from the dead like a defibrillator. But it would slowly descend and end up at point that makes economical sense. There is logic to all of this.
Honestly, if oil stays above $100 for a year, it would bleed us drier than we are. It might, but I doubt it.
The world uses 87mil barrels a day, right? We use 20mil of that. Well, we have been using less. But the argument is that world will use more. Not exactly. The worlds interdependence on us is tightly woven. We will see relative drops in the rest of the world's use.
If the world could truly afford $100 oil, then OPEC would put the floor in, but in all likelihood they are not.
And yes I am short oil right now. At least until it hits $80.
]]> Tue, 09 Sep 2008 21:25:13 -0400 People are just going to get used to colder winters and hot summers.
The only way we got up to 20mil barrels a day was due to easy credit. More people were able to afford and drive cars more. Now more people will be walking, taking mass transit and riding bikes. There isn't going to be an apocalypse, it will just be basic economics. I can be a mindless driver myself. But I know I could drive 50% less than I do if I needed to. Having a fridge full of yummy food and heating and cooling my home are far more important than taking 20 trips a day to buy things I don't need because I am bored.
Look at what is happening right now... Oil is dropping like a brick and so is our economy. Normally oil becoming cheaper would be helpful. The reason it isn't helpful is because it is still too expensive to help our sickly economy gain any ground. If oil went down to $30/barrel tomorrow, it would raise the economy from the dead like a defibrillator. But it would slowly descend and end up at point that makes economical sense. There is logic to all of this.
Honestly, if oil stays above $100 for a year, it would bleed us drier than we are. It might, but I doubt it.
The world uses 87mil barrels a day, right? We use 20mil of that. Well, we have been using less. But the argument is that world will use more. Not exactly. The worlds interdependence on us is tightly woven. We will see relative drops in the rest of the world's use.
If the world could truly afford $100 oil, then OPEC would put the floor in, but in all likelihood they are not.
And yes I am short oil right now. At least until it hits $80.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94454-oil-drops-but-opec-looms?source=feed#comment-248921 248921 So for OPEC to put a floor on the market is not feasible for us nor them in the long run... the short run alone is economically suffocating.... Companies need to watch their bottoms lines like hawks... Therefore people are starting to lose jobs in increasing rates... What does the average person do when they lose their job and they don't have any savings? This is happening to people I know...
]]> Mon, 08 Sep 2008 22:53:36 -0400 So for OPEC to put a floor on the market is not feasible for us nor them in the long run... the short run alone is economically suffocating.... Companies need to watch their bottoms lines like hawks... Therefore people are starting to lose jobs in increasing rates... What does the average person do when they lose their job and they don't have any savings? This is happening to people I know...
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94304-a-first-look-inside-the-fannie-freddie-bailout-plan?source=feed#comment-247898 247898 I will probably take a big hit tomorrow on my financial short position. But that is the price for playing this game.
Does anyone know why, despite the pre-trading hours starting at 8am EST, there are people that can put trades in earlier?]]> Sun, 07 Sep 2008 22:23:50 -0400 I will probably take a big hit tomorrow on my financial short position. But that is the price for playing this game.
Does anyone know why, despite the pre-trading hours starting at 8am EST, there are people that can put trades in earlier?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94304-a-first-look-inside-the-fannie-freddie-bailout-plan?source=feed#comment-247707 247707 Sun, 07 Sep 2008 16:21:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94304-a-first-look-inside-the-fannie-freddie-bailout-plan?source=feed#comment-247677 247677 Sun, 07 Sep 2008 15:25:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94297-fannie-and-freddie-we-all-support-you?source=feed#comment-247668 247668 Sun, 07 Sep 2008 15:10:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94189-rescuing-frannie?source=feed#comment-247214 247214 Fannie and Freddie will both be diluted to basically Zero and forgotten. Someone has to lose at some point. If they are theoretically bankrupt, why would they be worth anything to anyone? They are basically stocks with negative equity. Maybe we could just default on all the debts that we have accrued throughout the years. Then we could tear our homes down to the studs and ship the materials back to the source of origin. Or we maybe someone could invent a magical machine that creates oil from air, so we could replenish the foreign oil fields we deleted using other people's money. ]]> Sat, 06 Sep 2008 22:51:23 -0400 Fannie and Freddie will both be diluted to basically Zero and forgotten. Someone has to lose at some point. If they are theoretically bankrupt, why would they be worth anything to anyone? They are basically stocks with negative equity. Maybe we could just default on all the debts that we have accrued throughout the years. Then we could tear our homes down to the studs and ship the materials back to the source of origin. Or we maybe someone could invent a magical machine that creates oil from air, so we could replenish the foreign oil fields we deleted using other people's money. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83914-the-world-s-revenge?source=feed#comment-199938 199938 ]]> Mon, 07 Jul 2008 12:48:01 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83914-the-world-s-revenge?source=feed#comment-199677 199677 Mon, 07 Jul 2008 10:01:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81944-energy-inflation-and-speeding-tickets?source=feed#comment-188773 188773 It might be a good idea to invest in donut stocks in a time like this. There are going to be less people driving therefore less people speeding therefore less tickets and less patrol. So police will spend more time at their local donut shop sipping and dunking those tasty pastries. The strain on wheat and oil prices are going to get pinched. further.]]> Thu, 19 Jun 2008 19:38:15 -0400 It might be a good idea to invest in donut stocks in a time like this. There are going to be less people driving therefore less people speeding therefore less tickets and less patrol. So police will spend more time at their local donut shop sipping and dunking those tasty pastries. The strain on wheat and oil prices are going to get pinched. further.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80438-preparing-for-the-fall?source=feed#comment-180749 180749 The fact that America suffers from an epidemic of obesity is a spiritual symbol of our culture. It couldn't get anymore literal.
Study a movement called Calorie Restriction. An adequate survival level for calorie is around 1000 per person.
And for the record, I can be a frivolous carbon consuming fool at times. But I definitely welcome any changes. Hopefully I can handle it too. ]]> Sat, 07 Jun 2008 01:23:10 -0400 The fact that America suffers from an epidemic of obesity is a spiritual symbol of our culture. It couldn't get anymore literal.
Study a movement called Calorie Restriction. An adequate survival level for calorie is around 1000 per person.
And for the record, I can be a frivolous carbon consuming fool at times. But I definitely welcome any changes. Hopefully I can handle it too. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80438-preparing-for-the-fall?source=feed#comment-180746 180746 Check out SDS... is an Ultrashort (2X inverse) fund on the S&P... up about 7% today alone and doing good for the year.And DBC is a good all around commodity bet. It went up 6% today. Being in the stock market is like gambling to a degree, but my gut is definitely more involved this time. And the market is going to go on a diet. We are going to get a reality check. We are basically going to resemble Europe as our unemployment and gas goes up....]]> Sat, 07 Jun 2008 01:13:28 -0400 Check out SDS... is an Ultrashort (2X inverse) fund on the S&P... up about 7% today alone and doing good for the year.And DBC is a good all around commodity bet. It went up 6% today. Being in the stock market is like gambling to a degree, but my gut is definitely more involved this time. And the market is going to go on a diet. We are going to get a reality check. We are basically going to resemble Europe as our unemployment and gas goes up....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80344-how-bad-is-the-oil-shock-of-2008?source=feed#comment-180405 180405 Fri, 06 Jun 2008 12:03:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80407-exxon-s-hoard?source=feed#comment-180311 180311 Fri, 06 Jun 2008 10:18:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80261-investing-into-the-end-of-the-hydrocarbon-age?source=feed#comment-179986 179986 I do have my money where my mouth is, alternative, nuclear, oil and gas.
My recent history... 23-26: read a lot about being a vegetarian, so I did it. It worked for me. Read about yoga and meditation, then practiced it. It worked for me. 27-29: Felt lonely when surrounded by peers who engaged in drink and debauchery, so I decided to imbibe to my demise. Bankrupt at 29, massive anxiety attacks, and lifestyle turned upside down. 30: Doing great. Don't drink. Don't eat sugar and little meat. Practice martial arts. Take lots of long walks. Starting to enjoy the simple things again, realizing that matters never needed to get complicated. And yet I make really good money doing something enjoyable and autonomous, yet with it's fair share of stress.
I am not trying to push my views on others, but hey, what I did was simple and really helpful. Give up intoxicants, sugar (the no card diet is actually a good idea, just make sure you get a lot of vegetables and keep it light on the protein), and exercise consistently, especially something relating to yoga or martial arts. Qi gong is great if you have a good teacher.
Yeah, this was off subject, but hopefully it can be of use to some who reads it. And if you don't care for it, hopefully you can remain tolerant. Luckily these blogs have unlimited space, so a little tangent here and there is nothing to be bothered by.]]> Thu, 05 Jun 2008 20:02:32 -0400 I do have my money where my mouth is, alternative, nuclear, oil and gas.
My recent history... 23-26: read a lot about being a vegetarian, so I did it. It worked for me. Read about yoga and meditation, then practiced it. It worked for me. 27-29: Felt lonely when surrounded by peers who engaged in drink and debauchery, so I decided to imbibe to my demise. Bankrupt at 29, massive anxiety attacks, and lifestyle turned upside down. 30: Doing great. Don't drink. Don't eat sugar and little meat. Practice martial arts. Take lots of long walks. Starting to enjoy the simple things again, realizing that matters never needed to get complicated. And yet I make really good money doing something enjoyable and autonomous, yet with it's fair share of stress.
I am not trying to push my views on others, but hey, what I did was simple and really helpful. Give up intoxicants, sugar (the no card diet is actually a good idea, just make sure you get a lot of vegetables and keep it light on the protein), and exercise consistently, especially something relating to yoga or martial arts. Qi gong is great if you have a good teacher.
Yeah, this was off subject, but hopefully it can be of use to some who reads it. And if you don't care for it, hopefully you can remain tolerant. Luckily these blogs have unlimited space, so a little tangent here and there is nothing to be bothered by.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80261-investing-into-the-end-of-the-hydrocarbon-age?source=feed#comment-179959 179959 Thu, 05 Jun 2008 18:55:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80261-investing-into-the-end-of-the-hydrocarbon-age?source=feed#comment-179957 179957 Another idea that is fascinating are the large scale horticultural skyscrapers. There is a prototype being designed for Dubai right now. It is roughly 30 stories tall (10,000sq foot on each floor). It is believed that one building will be able to provide 50,000 people with 2000 calories a day. The building would obviously be encased with solar panels and all the other "alternative" energy.
America could be the greatest show on earth if we act now. Eliminate highways, put in more railways. I honestly think life would be more interesting. I think it would actually make us a more mobile culture if we had our own euro train. Amtrak is not up to the task and is basically as expensive as air travel anyways due to the economy of scale. It is probably just the romantic in me espousing these grand ideas. Heck we could probably do an amazing overhaul before the oil stops dripping. Cars suck for the most part anyways. I have one purely for employment purposes as I need it to get to appointments. I almost feel embarrassed when sitting in traffic with countless other drivers pondering the point of it all while burping carbon into the air that you and I breathe. I think they call that shitting where one sleeps.
The Sad American lifestyle is killing our spirits prematurely. Yet we will probably have longer lifespans due to modern medicine.

]]> Thu, 05 Jun 2008 18:51:20 -0400 Another idea that is fascinating are the large scale horticultural skyscrapers. There is a prototype being designed for Dubai right now. It is roughly 30 stories tall (10,000sq foot on each floor). It is believed that one building will be able to provide 50,000 people with 2000 calories a day. The building would obviously be encased with solar panels and all the other "alternative" energy.
America could be the greatest show on earth if we act now. Eliminate highways, put in more railways. I honestly think life would be more interesting. I think it would actually make us a more mobile culture if we had our own euro train. Amtrak is not up to the task and is basically as expensive as air travel anyways due to the economy of scale. It is probably just the romantic in me espousing these grand ideas. Heck we could probably do an amazing overhaul before the oil stops dripping. Cars suck for the most part anyways. I have one purely for employment purposes as I need it to get to appointments. I almost feel embarrassed when sitting in traffic with countless other drivers pondering the point of it all while burping carbon into the air that you and I breathe. I think they call that shitting where one sleeps.
The Sad American lifestyle is killing our spirits prematurely. Yet we will probably have longer lifespans due to modern medicine.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79781-has-oil-production-reached-a-de-facto-peak?source=feed#comment-178529 178529 Tue, 03 Jun 2008 10:58:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79506-in-light-of-peak-oil-financial-diversification-is-a-bad-idea?source=feed#comment-177593 177593 Sun, 01 Jun 2008 14:53:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79506-in-light-of-peak-oil-financial-diversification-is-a-bad-idea?source=feed#comment-177585 177585
The price of oil will continue to ascend it's price at a steady acceleration due to the lack of alternatives for current users/addicts.
Due to the high price of oil and it's direct influence on our economic reality, our spending will shift from wants to needs in a progressively gradual manner(needs being food and shelter (rent, mortgage, and/or comfort).... most of us have no need for new clothes). It will be more important to feel somewhat warm and cozy in the winter and somewhat cool in the summer, at least more important than the pleasure we derive from our eyes and hears and all industries that revolve around them. We will still have the American appetite. I know few people that will sacrifice their favorite carbon input loaded diet for much else, me included with my avocados, California salad greens, coconuts and other tropical fruits. We will no longer be able to have our cake and eat it too, in a sense. There will always be the super rich with the ability to buy whatever they please, but the other 95% of us will be choosing to heat or cool our homes moderately, eat our same or similar diet without a lot of changes. Nothing is as close to a person's heart both literally and figuratively as their stomach. We have had a economy that has serving our neurosis and our needs. Well, when push comes to shove, our neurotic selves give way to the needs of the body.
It thus my belief that our economy could focus on consumer needs for a while and that the next bubble will include all of the industries that are required for the production, supply, and distribution of these items, thus oil, ag, natural gas, nuclear, wind, solar, rail delivery as opposed to truck, etc. Some could argue that we have seen a bubble already forming in these industries but then again, it is not like people are pulling ALL of their money out of Apple at this point to invest in our more immediate and basic industries. The market seems to be fairly diversified still, a diversification that resembles the idea that cheap oil will perpetuate into the unknown future.
So I guess my little ramble is this, we have had an economy predicated on cheap oil for a long time and it will correct itself. It is as we have been taking out a loan that is now due. The way it will be paid off is through a more subsistence like lifestyle. It is also my belief that commodities will be the most stable currency. The people that get in early are going to see those investments grow exponentially, even if one starts today.
This is the way Warren Buffet thinks. Ken Heebner, the other, virtually unknown Wall Street maverick (currently on the cover of Fortunre) also is on this track. Both these investors are basic needs investors and virtually no tech to boot.
One other thing I would like to address is the "it is different this time" theme that sometime props up. Well, it actually could be different this time. We now have 6 billion people fighting for dwindling resources.
Plus, even if oil wasn't peaking, there will still be caps on emissions coming soon enough with serious financial implications on our economy]]> Sun, 01 Jun 2008 14:23:19 -0400
The price of oil will continue to ascend it's price at a steady acceleration due to the lack of alternatives for current users/addicts.
Due to the high price of oil and it's direct influence on our economic reality, our spending will shift from wants to needs in a progressively gradual manner(needs being food and shelter (rent, mortgage, and/or comfort).... most of us have no need for new clothes). It will be more important to feel somewhat warm and cozy in the winter and somewhat cool in the summer, at least more important than the pleasure we derive from our eyes and hears and all industries that revolve around them. We will still have the American appetite. I know few people that will sacrifice their favorite carbon input loaded diet for much else, me included with my avocados, California salad greens, coconuts and other tropical fruits. We will no longer be able to have our cake and eat it too, in a sense. There will always be the super rich with the ability to buy whatever they please, but the other 95% of us will be choosing to heat or cool our homes moderately, eat our same or similar diet without a lot of changes. Nothing is as close to a person's heart both literally and figuratively as their stomach. We have had a economy that has serving our neurosis and our needs. Well, when push comes to shove, our neurotic selves give way to the needs of the body.
It thus my belief that our economy could focus on consumer needs for a while and that the next bubble will include all of the industries that are required for the production, supply, and distribution of these items, thus oil, ag, natural gas, nuclear, wind, solar, rail delivery as opposed to truck, etc. Some could argue that we have seen a bubble already forming in these industries but then again, it is not like people are pulling ALL of their money out of Apple at this point to invest in our more immediate and basic industries. The market seems to be fairly diversified still, a diversification that resembles the idea that cheap oil will perpetuate into the unknown future.
So I guess my little ramble is this, we have had an economy predicated on cheap oil for a long time and it will correct itself. It is as we have been taking out a loan that is now due. The way it will be paid off is through a more subsistence like lifestyle. It is also my belief that commodities will be the most stable currency. The people that get in early are going to see those investments grow exponentially, even if one starts today.
This is the way Warren Buffet thinks. Ken Heebner, the other, virtually unknown Wall Street maverick (currently on the cover of Fortunre) also is on this track. Both these investors are basic needs investors and virtually no tech to boot.
One other thing I would like to address is the "it is different this time" theme that sometime props up. Well, it actually could be different this time. We now have 6 billion people fighting for dwindling resources.
Plus, even if oil wasn't peaking, there will still be caps on emissions coming soon enough with serious financial implications on our economy]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79632-oil-bubble-spin?source=feed#comment-177582 177582 Sun, 01 Jun 2008 14:17:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79522-is-oil-a-bubble-part-two?source=feed#comment-177564 177564 Sun, 01 Jun 2008 13:11:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79522-is-oil-a-bubble-part-two?source=feed#comment-177555 177555
The price of oil will continue to ascend it's price at a steady acceleration due to the lack of alternatives for current users/addicts.
Due to the high price of oil and it's direct influence on our economic reality, our spending will shift from wants to needs in a progressively gradual manner(needs being food and shelter (rent, mortgage, and/or comfort).... most of us have no need for new clothes). It will be more important to feel somewhat warm and cozy in the winter and somewhat cool in the summer, at least more important than the pleasure we derive from our eyes and hears and all industries that revolve around them. We will still have the American appetite. I know few people that will sacrifice their favorite carbon input loaded diet for much else, me included with my avocados, California salad greens, coconuts and other tropical fruits. We will no longer be able to have our cake and eat it too, in a sense. There will always be the super rich with the ability to buy whatever they please, but the other 95% of us will be choosing to heat or cool our homes moderately, eat our same or similar diet without a lot of changes. Nothing is as close to a person's heart both literally and figuratively as their stomach. We have had a economy that has serving our neurosis and our needs. Well, when push comes to shove, our neurotic selves give way to the needs of the body.
It thus my belief that our economy could focus on consumer needs for a while and that the next bubble will include all of the industries that are required for the production, supply, and distribution of these items, thus oil, ag, natural gas, nuclear, wind, solar, rail delivery as opposed to truck, etc. Some could argue that we have seen a bubble already forming in these industries but then again, it is not like people are pulling ALL of their money out of Apple at this point to invest in our more immediate and basic industries. The market seems to be fairly diversified still, a diversification that resembles the idea that cheap oil will perpetuate into the unknown future.
So I guess my little ramble is this, we have had an economy predicated on cheap oil for a long time and it will correct itself. It is as we have been taking out a loan that is now due. The way it will be paid off is through a more subsistence like lifestyle. It is also my belief that commodities will be the most stable currency. The people that get in early are going to see those investments grow exponentially, even if one starts today.
This is the way Warren Buffet thinks. Ken Heebner, the other, virtually unknown Wall Street maverick (currently on the cover of Fortunre) also is on this track. Both these investors are basic needs investors and virtually no tech to boot.
One other thing I would like to address is the "it is different this time" theme that sometime props up. Well, it actually could be different this time. We now have 6 billion people fighting for dwindling resources. ]]> Sun, 01 Jun 2008 12:58:42 -0400
The price of oil will continue to ascend it's price at a steady acceleration due to the lack of alternatives for current users/addicts.
Due to the high price of oil and it's direct influence on our economic reality, our spending will shift from wants to needs in a progressively gradual manner(needs being food and shelter (rent, mortgage, and/or comfort).... most of us have no need for new clothes). It will be more important to feel somewhat warm and cozy in the winter and somewhat cool in the summer, at least more important than the pleasure we derive from our eyes and hears and all industries that revolve around them. We will still have the American appetite. I know few people that will sacrifice their favorite carbon input loaded diet for much else, me included with my avocados, California salad greens, coconuts and other tropical fruits. We will no longer be able to have our cake and eat it too, in a sense. There will always be the super rich with the ability to buy whatever they please, but the other 95% of us will be choosing to heat or cool our homes moderately, eat our same or similar diet without a lot of changes. Nothing is as close to a person's heart both literally and figuratively as their stomach. We have had a economy that has serving our neurosis and our needs. Well, when push comes to shove, our neurotic selves give way to the needs of the body.
It thus my belief that our economy could focus on consumer needs for a while and that the next bubble will include all of the industries that are required for the production, supply, and distribution of these items, thus oil, ag, natural gas, nuclear, wind, solar, rail delivery as opposed to truck, etc. Some could argue that we have seen a bubble already forming in these industries but then again, it is not like people are pulling ALL of their money out of Apple at this point to invest in our more immediate and basic industries. The market seems to be fairly diversified still, a diversification that resembles the idea that cheap oil will perpetuate into the unknown future.
So I guess my little ramble is this, we have had an economy predicated on cheap oil for a long time and it will correct itself. It is as we have been taking out a loan that is now due. The way it will be paid off is through a more subsistence like lifestyle. It is also my belief that commodities will be the most stable currency. The people that get in early are going to see those investments grow exponentially, even if one starts today.
This is the way Warren Buffet thinks. Ken Heebner, the other, virtually unknown Wall Street maverick (currently on the cover of Fortunre) also is on this track. Both these investors are basic needs investors and virtually no tech to boot.
One other thing I would like to address is the "it is different this time" theme that sometime props up. Well, it actually could be different this time. We now have 6 billion people fighting for dwindling resources. ]]>