green_cheeks

Remember Those $200 Oil Predictions?

Oil is going to be at $85 in two weeks. Mark my words.

Energy, Inflation and Speeding Tickets

Cops are not losers. I like donuts too. They are so yummy. Yum yum yummy.
It might be a good idea to invest in donut stocks in a time like this. There are going to be less people driving therefore less people speeding therefore less tickets and less patrol. So police will spend more time at their local donut shop sipping and dunking those tasty pastries. The strain on wheat and oil prices are going to get pinched. further.

Exxon's Hoard

Any think the Saudis and others are holding out... and betting on oil futures at the same time to really make a bundle?

Investing Into the End of the Hydrocarbon Age

Great poetry. Who is the tyrant?
I do have my money where my mouth is, alternative, nuclear, oil and gas.
My recent history... 23-26: read a lot about being a vegetarian, so I did it. It worked for me. Read about yoga and meditation, then practiced it. It worked for me. 27-29: Felt lonely when surrounded by peers who engaged in drink and debauchery, so I decided to imbibe to my demise. Bankrupt at 29, massive anxiety attacks, and lifestyle turned upside down. 30: Doing great. Don't drink. Don't eat sugar and little meat. Practice martial arts. Take lots of long walks. Starting to enjoy the simple things again, realizing that matters never needed to get complicated. And yet I make really good money doing something enjoyable and autonomous, yet with it's fair share of stress.
I am not trying to push my views on others, but hey, what I did was simple and really helpful. Give up intoxicants, sugar (the no card diet is actually a good idea, just make sure you get a lot of vegetables and keep it light on the protein), and exercise consistently, especially something relating to yoga or martial arts. Qi gong is great if you have a good teacher.
Yeah, this was off subject, but hopefully it can be of use to some who reads it. And if you don't care for it, hopefully you can remain tolerant. Luckily these blogs have unlimited space, so a little tangent here and there is nothing to be bothered by.

Investing Into the End of the Hydrocarbon Age

I am not a liberal freak either. Balance is the key. France, Sweden, and Japan were definitely thinking ahead on the nuclear option. Now the rest of Europe is being fed from the hands of Putin. Talk about scary. That guy strikes me as a power hungry nihilist.

Investing Into the End of the Hydrocarbon Age

There is a solution already. It is nuclear, nuclear, nuclear, nuclear, and nuclear. The information is out there. Most people have probably not read it yet or have their heads in the sand as usual. We could build hundreds of nuclear plants with a trillion dollars. If you don't believe that nuclear is a viable option, just look up every nuclear energy video on youtube, pro and anti-, and make up your mind for yourself. Me personally... it sounds like a good idea.
Another idea that is fascinating are the large scale horticultural skyscrapers. There is a prototype being designed for Dubai right now. It is roughly 30 stories tall (10,000sq foot on each floor). It is believed that one building will be able to provide 50,000 people with 2000 calories a day. The building would obviously be encased with solar panels and all the other "alternative" energy.
America could be the greatest show on earth if we act now. Eliminate highways, put in more railways. I honestly think life would be more interesting. I think it would actually make us a more mobile culture if we had our own euro train. Amtrak is not up to the task and is basically as expensive as air travel anyways due to the economy of scale. It is probably just the romantic in me espousing these grand ideas. Heck we could probably do an amazing overhaul before the oil stops dripping. Cars suck for the most part anyways. I have one purely for employment purposes as I need it to get to appointments. I almost feel embarrassed when sitting in traffic with countless other drivers pondering the point of it all while burping carbon into the air that you and I breathe. I think they call that shitting where one sleeps.
The Sad American lifestyle is killing our spirits prematurely. Yet we will probably have longer lifespans due to modern medicine.

Has Oil Production Reached a 'De Facto' Peak?

My name for it is "Peaking Oil". Even if oil prices go below $100 again, we will just revert to a cheap oil mentality again and bury our heads in the sand. It might take something more cathartic like $200 to get people serious about the solution.

Oil Bubble Spin

Oil is not a bubble. It is basically the source of all things in our economy and most likely peaking at this point. We have been able to do without most things in the past, so bubbles burst. Houses got to expensive to buy, so we rented, now rents are getting high enough to consider buying again. The economy has had many fashions and bubbles, but now it has a chronic energy disease that is quantitatively different. We need used to need sun, water, air, and earth to live, now we invariably need oil.

Is Oil a Bubble? Part Two

Another comment.... Even if we aren't peaking, there is still the issue of caps for emissions that will keep the price of oil high.

Is Oil a Bubble? Part Two

My predictions....and these are primarily based on what I refer to as "peaking oil" as opposed to peak oil. My hunch about peaking oil is based on the various view points that I have read or heard from people close to the action including the contrary commentary too. I just don't find the contrary viewpoints to peaking oil to be all that convincing.

The price of oil will continue to ascend it's price at a steady acceleration due to the lack of alternatives for current users/addicts.
Due to the high price of oil and it's direct influence on our economic reality, our spending will shift from wants to needs in a progressively gradual manner(needs being food and shelter (rent, mortgage, and/or comfort).... most of us have no need for new clothes). It will be more important to feel somewhat warm and cozy in the winter and somewhat cool in the summer, at least more important than the pleasure we derive from our eyes and hears and all industries that revolve around them. We will still have the American appetite. I know few people that will sacrifice their favorite carbon input loaded diet for much else, me included with my avocados, California salad greens, coconuts and other tropical fruits. We will no longer be able to have our cake and eat it too, in a sense. There will always be the super rich with the ability to buy whatever they please, but the other 95% of us will be choosing to heat or cool our homes moderately, eat our same or similar diet without a lot of changes. Nothing is as close to a person's heart both literally and figuratively as their stomach. We have had a economy that has serving our neurosis and our needs. Well, when push comes to shove, our neurotic selves give way to the needs of the body.
It thus my belief that our economy could focus on consumer needs for a while and that the next bubble will include all of the industries that are required for the production, supply, and distribution of these items, thus oil, ag, natural gas, nuclear, wind, solar, rail delivery as opposed to truck, etc. Some could argue that we have seen a bubble already forming in these industries but then again, it is not like people are pulling ALL of their money out of Apple at this point to invest in our more immediate and basic industries. The market seems to be fairly diversified still, a diversification that resembles the idea that cheap oil will perpetuate into the unknown future.
So I guess my little ramble is this, we have had an economy predicated on cheap oil for a long time and it will correct itself. It is as we have been taking out a loan that is now due. The way it will be paid off is through a more subsistence like lifestyle. It is also my belief that commodities will be the most stable currency. The people that get in early are going to see those investments grow exponentially, even if one starts today.
This is the way Warren Buffet thinks. Ken Heebner, the other, virtually unknown Wall Street maverick (currently on the cover of Fortunre) also is on this track. Both these investors are basic needs investors and virtually no tech to boot.
One other thing I would like to address is the "it is different this time" theme that sometime props up. Well, it actually could be different this time. We now have 6 billion people fighting for dwindling resources.

Is Oil a Bubble? Part Two

WELL